Labour Market Insights:the Power of Internet-Based Data

Nuarpear Lekfuangfu, Ph.D.

Voraprapa Nakavachara, Ph.D.

Paphatsorn Sawaengsuksant

BOT Symposium: 15 September 2016

Introduction

Currently sourcesTimeliness

User-GeneratedInternet-Based data

Source: We Are Social (2016)

Source: We Are Social (2016)

Existing LiteratureOther Countries

(Not Thailand)

Advantage

Limitation

Our Tasks with

“the data”

Our PlanThai Labour Market

Google Trends

Predicting

“the Present”

Nowcasting = Now + Forecasting

Nowcasting Model

Google Trends

Source: Google

Unemployment Rate

Source: Google & NSO

Results

Google Trends

Source: Google

SS Unemployment Registration

(Dismissed Workers)

Source: Google & MOL

Actual Data Realized

at the end of Mar 2009

Feb 2009 Peak

Google Trends Data

Realized during Feb 2009

Results

4

Online Job Portals

What are Job Portals?

What Kind of Information is There?

Obtaining Data…June 2016

Our data: supply side

Applicant pool

4% 18% 78%

Our data: demand side

I. Vacancies and Job Seekers:

Mismatch?

Where Jobs and Workers Locate

Vacancies (V) Resumes (U)

Labour Market Tightness Indicator

Market Tightness

(V/U)

Central

East

BKK

South

NE

North

Labour tightness (V/U) across region

(2011-2016)

𝑽

𝑼by Occupation (2016)

II. Geographical Distribution

of Skills: Mismatch?

Distribution of Skills:

Bachelor Degree

Bachelor Supply

Bachelor Demand

Distribution of Skills:

High Vocational Qualification

HVQ Supply HVQ Demand

Geographical stickiness as a reason?

Older applicants

Younger applicants (+5%)

High GPALow GPA (-1.5%)

Gen BachelorVQ (-10%)Oth bachelor (-2%)

On-the-job search

In education (-10%)

MaleFemale (-2%)

Who is more mobile?

Misalignment of pay expectation?

III. A new insight from job portals?

% Gender-Specific Job Ads:

by Occupation

% Gender-Specific Job Ads:

by Education Qualification

% Gender-Specific Job Ads:

by Years of Experience

From wage-offer…

- 4.5 %

From wage-requesting…

- 7.3 %

New speed

o Google trend and its ability to go one step ahead of official report

o Other insights: housing, car, economic mood, epidemic

New depth

o Job portal: supply and demand on the same platform

o Labour market tightness and mismatch

o Special issues

User-Generated Internet-Based

Labour market insights

The End