Lakukan ‘Sell In May And Go Away’ … atau Jangan?nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/files/2014/05/Blog-Nico-05... · 2014-05-06 · Greg Guenthner, CMT, editor dari The Daily Reckoning’s

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05 Mei 2014

Lakukan ‘Sell In May And Go Away’ … atau Jangan?

“The Dow has closed at a 52-week high on the last day of April seven other times in its history. The next three months showed positive returns two times, negative returns five times, with an overall average return of -1.6%. At its best point during the next three months, it gained a median +1.9%, while at its worst point it lost a median -3.3%. The years were 1945, 1951, 1954, 1965, 1983, 1995 and 2011.” -- Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader

“Since infancy I’ve always been ultra-sensitive to danger. For this reason I have never been caught in a primary bear market – my sensitivity to impending danger (and Dow

Theory) has always saved me and my subscribers. But this time my unconscious fear is unrelenting, and it won’t leave me alone. Finally, I’ve admitted it to myself.

I’m afraid we’re in a primary bear market in the economy and the stock market. I believe it’s going to be an absolute “brute.” And I’m afraid of what might lie ahead.”

-- Richard Russell




Mei biasanya dikenal dengan bulan ketika bunga-bunga mulai mekar, namun tidak bagi Wall Street karena di bulan itu secara historis adalah waktu terburuk (dalam basis semesteran/6 bulanan) bagi bursa. Ada pepatah lama Wall Street yang kali ini banyak dikutip: “Sell in May and go away.” Bagi Anda yang belum tahu strategi “sell in May and go away” ini mungkin mengenalinya dengan nama yang lain, yakni: The Halloween Indicator. Terlepas dari itu, pola tersebut mengacu pada kecenderungan bursa saham memperoleh the best return-nya antara Halloween dan May Day (musim dingin) dan kemudian terkoreksi secara maksimal antara May Day hingga Halloween (musim panas). Tidak seperti pola-pola musiman terpandang lainnya di Wall Street, pola ini didasari oleh statistik yang kuat. Ini telah ditemukan di bursa saham di 36 dari 37 negara yang disurvei, yang diawali pada tahun 1694 di Inggris. Bahkan statistik dari BofA menyoroti fakta bahwa rentang waktu Mei-Oktober (6 bulan) merupakan resiko terbesar bagi bursa untuk turun (lebih rendah) dari 20% dari 6 bulan lainnya. Pada intinya, kecemasan secara statistik tersebut mempengaruhi keputusan musiman dari para investor setiap tahunnya: tetap di bursa atau lari dari bursa dengan harapan memperoleh harga yang paling rendah di November nanti…? Jadi apa yang harus dilakukan oleh seorang investor? Sebelum kita melihat gambaran technical terkini di bursa, mari baca dahulu bagaimana fakta teori investasi dari strategi “Sell in May, Go Away”. Greg Guenthner, CMT, editor dari The Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening, dalam laporan terakhir menjelaskan hal tersebut dengan luar biasa:

How to Become a “Vacation Trader” “The summer chop is coming soon to a market near you… It’s that time of year again. We’re just a few days away from May. That means the market is about to enter its least productive six months of the year.




Now, I realize many investors don’t take market seasonality seriously. But you should. It’s the one longer-term timing tool that can help you know when to back up the truck—and when to sit on your hands. Right now, staying away from aggressive buys is the name of the game. You don’t have to look back very far to see why. Just look at last year’s performance… I can’t emphasize this enough: 2013 was a huge year for equities. The S&P 500 delivered gains nearing 30% on the year. That’s the best performance we’ve seen from stocks since 1997. Investors waited 16 years for stocks to come close to matching the returns of the dot-com era. But even as we enjoyed the most accommodating market so far this century, you still could have cashed out in May, unplugged your computer, and hit the beach for the summer without missing a beat. 2013’s summer gains were a paltry 2.2%. For four months during the strongest market of the 2000s, the major averages chopped up anyone in its path and entered the fall trading season barely in the green… In fact, since the post-crisis bull market emerged, just one summer offered impressive returns. That was 2009, right as the market was powering off its lows…




If you exclude 2009 (a disbelief-driven, first phase bull market), the S&P’s summer returns over the past five years are downright nasty. 2010 and 2011 delivered sharp drops, while 2012 and 2013 only offered choppy action and small returns. Need more proof? Even if you pile on more than 60 years of data, the numbers show the summer season is not kind to stocks. My friend J.C. Parets, president of Eagle Bay Capital, has the numbers:

“If you use the Dow Jones Industrial Average and go back to 1950, the statistics are simply staggering,” J.C. explains. “Hypothetically, had you invested $10,000 but only owned stocks between November 1st through April each year, on April 30th of 2013 that $10,000 would have been worth $775,055. That’s pretty awesome. Now, had you done the exact opposite and purchased the Dow Industrials every year on May 1 and sold on Halloween, you would have actually lost $687 over the past 63 years.” Even if you’re a longer-term investor, you can make market seasonality work for you. And you don’t have to simply “sell in May and go away”. Become a vacation trader. Lighten up on stocks as summer approaches. Reassess your holdings and rotate into the safer sectors that are showing relative strength.”




Berikutnya Wolf Richter dari www.testosteronepit.com yang baru-baru ini menjelaskan mengenai jumlah margin debt outstanding, yang layak Anda perhatikan, karena para peminjam pada akhirnya harus mengembalikannya dengan menjual aset-aset mereka: 02 Mei 2014

The Last Two Times This Happened, The Stock Market Crashed “The last two times when margin debt reversed and fell after a record-breaking spike, all hell broke loose. In 2000, it was simultaneous. In 2007, it was delayed by a few months. Today, on the surface, everything is still hunky-dory. The Dow is just fractions below its all-time high that it set on Wednesday. But beneath the surface, parts of the stock market are already coming unglued, and holders of momentum stocks have been eviscerated. The Nasdaq Biotech Index had beautifully shot up along an exponential curve. Then the hot air hissed out of it, and it swooned 21% in six weeks. The index includes big players, like Biogen, not just startups with big dreams and no drugs. After some buying on the dip, the index closed on Thursday down "only" 15%. But that hasn’t saved smaller momentum stocks: Exelixis is down 58% from its 52-week high and 92% from its all-time high shortly after its IPO in early 2000; Halozyme is down 60% from its high in early January. And so on. In the social media space, the bloodletting has been ugly. The Social Media ETF SOCL is down 23%, but stronger stocks like Facebook (down 16% from its high a month ago) paper over individual fiascos, like Twitter, which has plummeted 48% from its peak last year to below its IPO price. Other momentum stocks are getting annihilated: Amazon down 25% since January, Netflix down 27% in just two months. From their peaks, Pandora crashed 39%, Gogo 63%, and Imperva, a Big Data security outfit, 65%. Then there’s the “Cloud,” the single most hyped miracle-sector last year. Escalator up, elevator down. Workday, which sells cloud-based corporate software, went public in late 2012 and soared. Two months ago, it sprung a leak and the hot air hissed out of it. It’s down 36%. Veeve, which sells cloud-based healthcare software, has crashed 60% from its November high, shortly after it had gone public. Salesforce is down 22%. ServiceNow lost 30% over the past two weeks. LinkedIn reported a loss after hours on Thursday and got hammered. It’s now down 40% from its peak last September. Jive Software is down 71% from its high in 2012. They aren’t just outliers. They’re included in the index of 37 publicly traded cloud companies that VC firm Bessemer Venture Partners put together and updates on a weekly basis. From the beginning of the data series in January 2012 to February 27, 2014, the index had soared 129%. But in the two months since then, the index gave up more than half of its gains and lost $58 billion in market cap!




Dizzying hype, smoke, and mirrors allowed Wall Street and Silicon Valley to slap crazy blue-sky valuations on startups that are all now trying to go public, 34 of which, at last count, have valuation of $1 billion or more. Airbnb, a bed-and-breakfast site, and Dropbox, a cloud software company, top the list with valuations of $10 billion. CIA startup Palantir [read.... Surveillance Society: If You Drive, You Get Tracked] has a valuation of $9 billion. By comparison, Box's $2-billion valuation doesn’t seem like a lot. But it’s a tiny money-losing outfit offering cloud-storage and collaboration software – a glorified online file cabinet – in a crowded sector with low barriers to entry, dominated by huge companies such as Google and Microsoft, and populated by startups such as Dropbox. Not exactly promising. In 9 rounds of funding, it raised a total of $399 million. One thing it does really well: burning cash. Last year, it burned $92 million. As of January 31, it had $109 million left. People are already projecting the out-of-money date. So it would be helpful if this thing could be dumped before then into the lap of a blindly adoring public. But that blindly adoring public has evaporated apparently. And so Box decided to delay its IPO until June or later, the Wall Street Journal reported. "Since filing, we've planned on going public when it makes the most sense for the market," a spokeswoman explained. And apparently, Box’s $2-billion valuation in this crashing cloud market doesn’t make enough sense. There may be another option for it. Surely if Facebook forked over $19 billion for WhatsApp which has negligible revenues and 50-some employees, or if Google blew $3.2 billion on Nest, which is trying to market a home thermostat, why not blow some megabucks on Box. But what if the big players are seeing what everyone else is seeing, which is a crash back to reality? They might not feel like propping it up singlehandedly. Just then, the one thing that wasn’t supposed to happen happened. Margin debt declined. Margin debt, after it has been spiking for months, has a nerve-racking habit of peaking right around the time stocks crash. In the last fifteen years, it had three majestic spikes, each greater than the prior one. It began to spike in January 1999 during the final throes of the dotcom bubble. In March 2000, it hit a record of $278.5 billion, or 2.66% of GDP. In April, it declined. An epic stock-market crash had just started. It began to spike in September 2006 to max out in July 2007 at $381.4 billion, or 2.60% of GDP. In August, it declined. In November, the fetid air started hissing out of the market. Momentum stocks got killed first, and as they plunged, margin calls went out, and forced selling set in, and the selloff turned into a rout.




In August 2012, margin debt spiked again, and this time, it turned into a phenomenal spike that set a new record in July 2013 and continued going for the stars. In February, it hit $465.7 billion, 22% above the prior all-time record. And 2.73% of GDP. The highest ratio ever! [Emphasis mine]

It isn’t the spike per se that matters, but when the spike reverses. So in March – the New York Stock Exchange released the numbers Wednesday evening – margin debt declined by over $15 billion. Instead of plowing $15 billion in barrowed money into stocks, as they might have during the upward momentum of the spike, investors yanked out $15 billion – for a difference of $30 billion compared to prior months. And that moolah they yanked out doesn’t sit on the sidelines. It dissipated into thin air by being used to pay off debt. The last two times that reversal happened, the whole construct came tumbling down. Parts of the market have already tumbled. Momentum stock traders have taken a drubbing, and some of those who trade on margin received margin calls and were forced to sell, and others dumped their positions to avoid getting wiped out. It’s bloody out there, in momentum stocks. They’re the ones that go first. And the last two times, they didn’t go solo.”




What Do the Charts Say? Setelah bergerak volatile di bulan sebelumnya, para analis memproyeksikan bursa saham akan mengikuti skenario “sell in May and go away”, menyusul banyaknya indikator teknikal yang memberikan warning bakal terjadinya sell-off ke depannya. Salah satu dari analis tersebut adalah Macneil Curry dari BofAML, yang menyarankan untuk mengamati “the Russell 2000 and its 200d average”:

“We are becoming increasingly concerned about small cap and tech stocks. Indeed, the Russell 2000 is dangerously close to its 200d (1113). A closing break below would expose 5yr trend line support (1057) and could lead to a bout of n/term risk aversion.”




Juga Charles Hugh-Smith dari OfTwoMinds blog yang menyarankan untuk berhati-hati. Berikut penjelasannya:

NASDAQ: Classic Head-and-Shoulders & Blow-Off Top? “If the advance from January 2013 to the top in early 2014 isn't a blow-off top, it's certainly a pretty good imitation of one. Technical analysis seeks to identify trends and recognize signals. The predictive value of trends (up, flat or down) and signals (buy, hold or sell) is self-evident, hence the widespread interest in charts of price and various indicators. It's easy to overwhelm the senses with complex analysis, so let's try to strip down our look at the NASDAQ stock index to bare essentials. The opportunities to load up any chart or analysis with complexity are endless in an age of data and cheap computational power, and the risk is we miss the forest for the trees. Let's start with a short-term chart of the NAZ. The classic topping pattern is called head and shoulders because as doubts about the Bull Market start to creep in, sellers take the market down. This forms the left shoulder. Despite narrowing breadth and weakening volume, true-believer Bulls ("this time it's different") push the index to new highs. This forms the head. The weakening participation (i.e. the market has run out of new buyers) eventually causes the market to sell off again. But Bulls, well-trained to "buy the dip," come back in and the index rallies, but not to the previous high. This forms the right shoulder. Once the Bulls realize the rally is over, selling begins in earnest as participants sell to lock in gains/limit losses. Selling begets selling and a Bear market ensues.




MACD and Chaiken Money Flow reveal the decline in technical underpinnings. The long-term chart helps us answer the question, is this a blow-off top? Another classic pattern is an A-B-C-D series, in which the first leg up is followed by a decline that is then followed by a third leg that is roughly twice the size of the first advance.




Interestingly, the NASDAQ index has traced out a textbook example of this pattern: the A leg from the 2002 low of 1,114 to the 2007 high of 2,841 is an advance of 1,747. The B decline from 2,861 to the low in March 2009 of 1,265 is 1,596 points, and the subsequent C leg reached 4,371 in 2014, a rise of 3,106 points--pretty close to double the A and B legs.

If the advance from January 2013 to the top in early 2014 isn't a blow-off top, it's certainly a pretty good imitation of one. If a 45% leap in a little over a year doesn't qualify as a blow-off top, then what does? If this A-B-C pattern plays out, the NASDAQ should experience a major D leg decline. A hefty 30% decline would simply return the NAZ to its pre-blow-off level around 3,000. Some projections call for a much more severe decline, but we'll take each development as it comes. If the NASDAQ surpasses the high of 4,371 and moves higher, the head and shoulders pattern is negated. If the NAZ fails to rally to new highs, which could be a signal that the rally from 2009 is reversing or has entered a new phase.”




Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, Christopher Rowe, seorang Director of Investor Education di www.investmentu.com, yang 2 pekan lalu menulis laporan menarik mengenai kondisi internal bursa yang memburuk. Baca dengan seksama artikelnya dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:

This Market Is Weak in the Knees “The granddaddy of all stock market indicators, the New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index (NYSE BPI), tells us how risky the market is. The indicator right now is showing a market that is losing momentum. I'll explain... The NYSE BPI shows the percentage of stocks that are on "point and figure" buy signals. A P&F buy signal is very much like any other buy signal when looking at a price chart. The buy signal is established when a stock breaks through its historical resistance price. The stock remains on a P&F buy signal until it moves to a sell signal, which is established when the stock drops below its historical support price. Stocks on buy signals tend to more easily advance until they run into some other historical resistance level. Those on sell signals tend to keep declining until they hit a previously established support price. Thus, when we notice a trend of more and more stocks moving to buy signals, we know that the "demand side" has taken control of market prices. Interpreting the Signal The higher the reading, the more risk there is in the market. That's because if most stocks are already on buy signals, it's likely that most of the buying has already happened. The lower the reading, the lower the risk. When most stocks are already on sell signals, it's likely that most of the selling has already occurred. When the reading is trending up, it means more and more stocks are moving to buy signals. It's best to run bullish trades when the reading is trending up. If the reading is low (indicating low market risk) but is still trending lower, it's best to wait until the BPI reverses and starts trending higher.




The very best time to run bullish trades is when the NYSE BPI is in low-risk territory, but trending higher. The riskiest time to run bullish trades is when the BPI is in overbought territory and trending lower. Below is an NYSE BPI chart. Notice it's just a chart with columns of mostly X's and O's. The reading is presented as a point and figure chart. Instead of making this a point and figure charting lesson, just focus on the column to the far right, which is the most recent time period. Currently, that column is in X's. That means the most recent trend is more stocks moving to buy signals. Demand is in control. When the most recent column is O's, more stocks are moving to sell signals and it's time to be more defensive.




The rule of thumb is when the NYSE BPI is at 70 or higher, the market is in overbought territory (but it's not time to be defensive or bearish until the reading moves back below 70 and is in O's). If the NYSE BPI is below 30, the market is in oversold territory. When the chart turns positive again (a column of X's) it's time to run bullish plays, because the risk is low and the market is probably washed out (most of the selling has already happened). The last seven columns of X's and O's are showing lower highs and lower lows. Lower highs means that with each market advance (since mid-2013) fewer and fewer stocks were on buy signals. There are fewer stocks participating in each advance. Lower lows means that more stocks are participating in each market sell-off. That's information you can't get by simply watching the market-cap weighted averages like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. While the averages have shown higher highs, the reality is the internal market is weakening. Think of the stock market like an opponent in a boxing match and understand that a punch might have a minor effect in the first few seconds of round one, but a more devastating effect toward the end of round nine. The market seems to be weak in the knees at this point. Currently, demand is in control of the shorter-term trend as the NYSE BPI is in X's. But here's a link so that you can check back with the chart regularly. When the column to the far right flips to a column of O's, it's time to exercise caution as supply has taken control once again.”




Conclusion Menurut pandangan saya, Michael Pento dari Pento Portfolio Strategies, telah menyimpulkan situasi bursa terkini dengan sangatbaik dan sekaligus memberikan saran investasi yang masuk akal bagi para investor jangka menengah dan panjang: “For stock prices to rise from this point, the economy must grow rapidly without causing interest rates to rise. This is a virtually impossible scenario, especially since the Fed is removing its bid for Treasuries. So, it’s either the economy doesn’t improve and stocks fall – because the Fed won’t reverse course and increase QE on a dime; or the economy improves and the interest rates spike spooks the market. Either way, the market goes down in the short term. I believe a bear market will ensue from weakening economic growth combined with the attenuation of Fed asset purchases. Further proof of our structurally-anemic economy came when the BEA released data on April 30th that showed the economy grew at an annual growth rate of just 0.1 percent during Q1. Our central bank is now buying $45 billion per month of MBS and Treasuries – this figure is down from $85 billion at the start of this year. That number will be near zero in just a few months. Real estate and stock prices have already stopped rising, and economic growth has almost completely stalled since the start of 2014. The bear market in equities and stubbornly-high unemployment rates should bring the Fed back into the debt monetization business shortly after the market crashes. This significant selloff should prove to be a crucial buying opportunity, and investors need to be preparing now to take full advantage when it takes place. They need to have a list of high quality stocks to buy, or they need a money manager who is qualified to do this for them.”




Di akhir tulisan ini, seperti biasa, agar Anda senantiasa ceria, berikut ada sebuah lelucon untuk Anda: “Joe grew up in a small town, then moved away to attend college and law school. He decided to come back to the small town because he could be a big man there. He really wanted to impress everyone. He opened his new law office, but business was very slow at first. One day, he saw a man coming up the sidewalk. He decided to make a big impression on this new client when he arrived. As the man came to the door, Joe picked up the phone. He motioned the man in, all the while talking. “No, absolutely not. You tell those clowns in New York that I won’t settle this case for less than one million. Yes. The Appeals Court has agreed to hear that case next week. I’ll be handling the primary argument, and the other members of my team will provide support. Okay. Tell the DA that I’ll meet with him next week to discuss the details.” This sort of thing went on for almost five minutes. All the while the man sat patiently as Joe rattled instructions. Finally, Joe put down the phone and turned to the man. “I’m sorry for the delay, but as you can see, I’m very busy. What can I do for you?” The man replied, “I’m from the phone company. I came to hook up your phone.”” Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Regards,

Nico Omer Jonckheere VP Research and Analysis PT. Valbury Asia Futures

Documents

Lakukan ‘Sell In May And Go Away’ … atau Jangan?nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/files/2014/05/Blog-Nico-05... · 2014-05-06 · Greg Guenthner, CMT, editor dari The Daily Reckoning’s