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Land Values and Chinese Agriculture
Wendong ZhangAssistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist
2016 Pro-Ag Meetings, Clarinda, IA, December 15th, 2016
The new Mike Duffy
30
29
A Quick Introduction:Dr. Wendong Zhang
– Grown up in a rural county in NE China– Attended college in Shanghai and Hong Kong– Ph.D. in Ag Econ in 2015 from Ohio State– 2012 summer intern at USDA-ERS on farm
economy and farmland values– Research and extension interests: land value, land
ownership, agriculture and the environment, China Ag
China’s Provinces
High-Speed Rail in China
My Hometown: Shenxian, Shandong Province
Greenhouse – plastic film - Shandong Province
Intensification of Land-Use in China
Source: EconomistIMF
Chinese economy
Pudong, Shanghai in 30 years
China vs. US
Zhang 2015 Ag Policy Review
Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
Of Maize and Markets: China’s New Corn Policy
Wu and Zhang 2016 Ag Policy Review
Why Care About Farmland Market?
Source: USDA ERS
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
Billi
on $
Distribution of U.S. Farm Assets
Real estate Livestock and poultry Machinery and motor vehicles
Crops stored Purchased inputs Financial assets
AVERAGE VALUESall farmland 1941−2016
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Land
Val
ue ($
per
acr
e)
Iowa Nominal and Inflation-adjusted Farmland Values 1941-2016
Nominal value Inflation-adjusted value (2015 dollars)
$7,183As of Nov 16
-5.9%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Annu
al P
erce
ntag
e Ch
ange
(%)
% Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values 1942-2016
District AverageValue
% Change
HighQuality
% Change
Medium Quality
% Change
Low Quality % Change
Northwest $9,243 -4.6% $10,650 -5.2% $8,468 -4.1% $6,019 -3.7%
North Central $7,562 -5.0% $8,442 -5.9% $6,992 -4.9% $5,164 -3.9%
Northeast $7,313 -7.0% $8,892 -7.1% $6,994 -6.2% $4,847 -7.5%
West Central $7,358 -8.7% $8,874 -8.4% $6,870 -9.4% $4,577 -9.9%
Central $7,841 -7.8% $9,299 -7.8% $7,186 -7.4% $5,158 -2.5%
East Central $7,917 -6.9% $9,502 -7.6% $7,396 -6.8% $5,153 -4.0%
Southwest $6,060 -4.9% $7,527 -6.3% $5,683 -5.9% $4,189 2.9%
South Central $4,241 -3.6% $5,980 -7.2% $4,128 -3.6% $2,892 5.2%
Southeast $6,716 -2.6% $9,265 -2.8% $6,283 -3.7% $3,783 -0.4%
Iowa Avg. $7,183 -5.9% $8,758 -6.5% $6,705 -5.9% $4,665 -3.5%
Land Values by District and Land Quality, Nov 2016
Livestock and Crop Inventory by District
Inventory 2012 Harvested Acres 2015Chickens,
Layers Hogs Milk Cows Cattle Corn Soybean
Northwest 30% 26% 29% 22% 15% 16%
North Central 64% 16% 4% 6% 14% 13%Northeast 1% 12% 51% 16% 12% 8%
West Central 0% 13% 1% 13% 15% 16%Central 3% 13% 1% 7% 15% 14%
East Central 1% 5% 10% 11% 10% 10%
Southwest 0% 2% 0% 9% 7% 9%
South Central 0% 2% 1% 9% 4% 5%Southeast 1% 11% 3% 6% 7% 8%
State Inventory 20.4 million 20.4 million 0.17 million 2.34 million 13.2 million 9.8 million
Land Values by County, 2016
PercentChangesin Land Values from Nov 2015
ISU survey results echo other surveys
ISU survey results echo other surveys
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Kansas City November 2016 Ag Letter
ISU survey results echo other surveys
USDA June Area Survey, August 2016
Pasture value
Farmland Market Outlook
Consensus: Going downDivergence: Magnitude &
Speed of the Decline
Iowa Farmland Sale Activity Relative to Last Year 1985-2016
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Iowa Farmland Sale Activity Change 1989-2016
More Less Same
Farmland supply tends to be tighter in down years
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Perc
ent c
hang
e
Sale
act
ivity
inde
x (%
repr
oted
mor
e -%
repo
rted
less
)*10
0
ISU sale activity index and percent change in Iowa land value, 1986-2016
(% reported more sales - % reported less sales) + 100
Land Value % Change Sale Activity Index
Limited farmland supply tends to bolster land values
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Num
ber o
f Pub
lic A
uctio
ns
Number of Public Auctions by Month 2011-2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Farm Credit Service of America
Looking Ahead
Major Positive Factors Affecting Iowa Farmland Market, 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
FavorableInterest Rates
Strong Yields Land Availability(Limited Supply)
Strong Demand(Many Buyers)
Positive Factors, 2016 (Percent)
Major Negative Factors Affecting Iowa Farmland Market, 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
CommodityPrices (Lower)
Input Costs(Higher)
Cash Rent Rates(Weak)
Livestock Losses Stock Market /Economy/Global
Negative Factors, 2016 (Percent)
Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer Types 1989-2016
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Existing Farmers Investors New Farmers Other
Active Farmers
Retired Farmers
Estate Sales Investors Other
PERCENTNorthwest 12 17 64 5 3North Central 8 17 61 10 4Northeast 14 34 43 6 5West Central 12 25 57 5 2Central 13 22 53 8 4East Central 11 24 53 9 2Southwest 15 24 47 13 1South Central 17 24 37 19 3Southeast 11 24 57 10 2
STATE 12 23 53 9 3
Iowa Farmland Purchases by Seller Types, 2016
Cash Crop Price Predictions for Nov 2017, 2018, 2020
Cash Corn Prices Cash Soybean Prices
2017 2018 2020 2017 2018 2020
Northwest $ 3.34 $ 3.65 $ 3.98 $ 9.25 $ 9.61 $ 10.32
North Central $ 3.42 $ 3.59 $ 3.93 $ 9.16 $ 9.46 $ 10.01
Northeast $ 3.41 $ 3.59 $ 3.95 $ 9.19 $ 9.28 $ 9.76
West Central $ 3.34 $ 3.59 $ 4.02 $ 9.12 $ 9.33 $ 10.06
Central $ 3.36 $ 3.50 $ 3.77 $ 9.17 $ 9.40 $ 9.86
East Central $ 3.42 $ 3.58 $ 3.89 $ 9.26 $ 9.51 $ 10.00
Southwest $ 3.31 $ 3.56 $ 3.94 $ 9.15 $ 9.42 $ 10.09
South Central $ 3.36 $ 3.59 $ 3.90 $ 9.51 $ 9.76 $ 10.35
Southeast $ 3.50 $ 3.83 $ 4.17 $ 9.49 $ 9.59 $ 10.08
STATE $ 3.38 $ 3.60 $ 3.94 $ 9.24 $ 9.48 $ 10.06
Farmland Values Predictions for Nov 2017, 2018, 2020
Reported Average Values as of Nov 2016
Land Value Predictions
Nov 2017 Nov 2018 Nov 2020Northwest $9,912 $10,085 $9,786 $9,983 North Central $8,089 $7,908 $7,765 $7,966 Northeast $7,582 $7,799 $7,624 $7,704 West Central $7,628 $7,689 $7,501 $8,058 Central $8,156 $8,623 $8,396 $8,593 East Central $7,976 $8,188 $7,943 $8,057 Southwest $6,452 $6,376 $6,189 $6,560 South Central $4,497 $4,958 $4,796 $4,917 Southeast $7,297 $7,470 $7,451 $7,530
STATE $7,700 $7,858 $7,662 $7,877
Source: Purdue Ag Barometer
Source: USDA-NASS;Ag Census
Iowa Ag Real Estate Values 1850-2016
A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis?
Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70, Zhang and Beek (2016) Farm Policy Journal
Key Indicators to WatchLand Value = net income /
interest rate– USDA Farm Income Forecast
• Price Outlook• Ag Exports / Exchange Rate• China• Ethanol, E-85, RFS
– Fed’s move on Interest Rate– Ag Loan Delinquency; Vendor Credit
US Farm Income 1990-2025
Source: USDA OCE
A New, Interactive Iowa Farmland Value Portal
http://card.iastate.edu/farmland/
Iowa Farmland Value Portalhttp://card.iastate.edu/farmland
Iowa Farmland Value Portal
twitter#ISUlandvaluehttp://card.iastate.edu/farmland
Iowa Farmland Value Portalww.card.iastate.edu/farmland
twitter #ISUlandvalue
Thank You!Wendong Zhang
Assistant Professor and Extension Economist478C Heady Hall
Iowa State University515-294-2536
[email protected]://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/zhang