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Embezzlement Study 1997-1998
2
The Commission conducted a study of felony
embezzlement cases to examine the relationship
between the amount embezzled and sentencing
outcomes.
― Analysis of felony embezzlement cases
sentenced under truth-in-sentencing laws
between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997.
Since analysis revealed a relationship between
dollar amount embezzled and the sentence
received, new factors were added to Sections A, B,
and C of the Fraud worksheets.
The following year, the Commission conducted a
study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the
relationship between the amount of money or value of
property stolen and sentencing outcomes.
The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny
and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999.
― Sample excluded embezzlement because it had
been examined in the previous study.
― Certain other offenses were also excluded, such
as motor vehicle theft and forging public record,
since the statutory definition is not tied to value.
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
3
Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny; 440 fraud).
Supplemental data was collected on factors of
interest that were not contained in automated data.
− Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) reports
− Court records
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
4
Although many variations of the factors were tried,
models with factors that were statistically significant
were only marginally better than the existing
guidelines model.
− The best models involved both dollar amount
and a factor related to restitution and/or
victim type.
− Adding such factors would have added a
layer of complexity for users when scoring.
Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000
Commission took no action
5
A large sample is preferred, as some cases will be eliminated in subsequent stages.
― Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an excluded offense.
― Wrong VCC may have been used.
― Available data may be insufficient to include the offender.
Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud Study in 1999-2000.
Selection of Study Sample:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
7
Sample was based on a stratified random
sampling technique to under-sample grand
larceny cases and over-sample other types of
larcenies.
− To ensure adequate number of cases
for non-grand larceny in the sample
Sample includes embezzlement.
− Length of time since previous study
− Judges frequently cite dollar amount
when sentencing above the guidelines
Selection of Study Sample:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
8
Number of Cases
Grand Larceny 200
Embezzlement 600
Other Larcenies 400
Fraud 300
Total 1,500
For the analysis, the sampled cases will be
weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual
proportion in the population.
Selection of Study Sample FY2011 - FY2013
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
9
Dollar value of money or property stolen
Type(s) of items
Damage of items
Money/items recovered
Insurance coverage for items
Fraud protection for loss
Location of offense
Duration of offense
Number of victims
Type and Age of victim(s)
Offender relationship to victim
Status of restitution at time of sentencing
Restitution ordered at sentencing
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
10
Supplemental Data Collection
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports
― 42% of the sampled cases were matched to PSI data
− Of these, 98% contained information in the offense
narrative field
− Compared to the previous study, the percentage of
sampled cases with available PSI information is much
lower
Officer of the Court Remote Access (OCRA) System
― Contains scanned copies of court records
― Of the sampled cases, 60.2% occurred in a court with OCRA
The majority of sampled cases (78.7%) either had a PSI or
occurred in an OCRA jurisdiction
Electronic Data Sources:
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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47 jurisdictions currently use OCRA
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015OCRA Jurisdictions
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Albemarle Lynchburg RockinghamAlexandria Montgomery ShenandoahAugusta Nelson SmythBedford New Kent SouthamptonBristol Newport News SpotsylvaniaCaroline Norfolk StaffordChesapeake Northampton StauntonDanville Pittsylvania SuffolkDickenson Portsmouth TazewellDinwiddie Powhatan WashingtonFauquier Prince Edward WaynesboroFredericksburg Prince William WilliamsburgHalifax Pulaski WinchesterHanover Richmond City YorkHenrico Roanoke CityIsle of Wight Roanoke CountyLoudoun
Other Court records (paper files)
Law Enforcement Databases
Commonwealth’s Attorneys’ files
Victim Impact Statements
Probation Office records
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
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Other Potential Data Sources
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Region 1 Tidewater Cases: 68
Region 2Northern VirginiaCases: 25
Region 5Southside VirginiaCases: 24
Region 6Shenandoah Valley/PiedmontCases: 55
Region 4Southwest VirginiaCases: 66
Region 3Central VirginiaCases: 81
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Cases in Non-OCRA Courts without a PSI
Total: 319
Spring/Summer 2015 Data collection
August/September 2015 Data analysis
September 2015 Present preliminary results
November 2015 Present proposal for guidelines
revision (if supported by data)
Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Revised Work Plan*
15* Subject to change based on accessibility of information