Large Starts Issues for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session and Seminar San Francisco, CA February 15-16, 2006

Large Starts Issues for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session and Seminarand Seminar

San Francisco, CASan Francisco, CA

February 15-16, 2006February 15-16, 2006

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Large Starts Issues and Possible Direction

Topics• Eligibility• Project Evaluation and Ratings• Project Development Procedures

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Eligibility – SAFETEA-LU Definition

Fixed guideway means:

(A) Using and occupying a separate right-of-way or rail for the exclusive use of public transportation and other high occupancy vehicles; or

(B) Using a fixed catenary system and a right-of-way usable by other forms of transportation

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Eligibility Issues for BRT

• Use the percentage of project in fixed guideway and if so, how should project be defined?

• Use percentage change in travel time?

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Project Evaluation and Ratings – SAFETEA-LU Key Changes

• Measures of Project Justification– Mobility– Economic Development– Land-Use– Reliability of Forecasting Methods (Cost & Ridership)– Environmental benefits– Operating Efficiencies– Cost-Effectiveness

• Measures of Local Financial Commitment– Stability/Reliability of Capital Funding– Stability/Reliability of Operating Funding– New Starts Share

• Other Measures Secretary Deems Appropriate

NEW

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Project Evaluation and Ratings – Option 1 Framework

• New project justification criteria- economic development impacts- reliability of forecasting methods for costs and ridership

• Existing project justification criteria- transit supportive land use policies and future patterns -- mobility improvements- environmental benefits- operating efficiencies- cost effectiveness

• Existing financial commitment criteria

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Project Evaluation and Ratings – Option 2: Develop New Framework

Organize measures into the following categories• Nature of the problem or opportunity• Effectiveness of the project as a response• Cost effectiveness• Financial capability• Risk and uncertainty

– Current land use and plans and polices– Reliability of forecasting methods (ridership, costs, funding)

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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2: Develop New Framework

Financial Uncertainty Profile

Project Merit Financial Capability

Nature/Extent of Problem or Opportunity

Effectiveness - Mobility - Transit Depend - Econ developmt - Env benefits

Capital Funding

Cost Effectiveness-Capital cost-O&M cost-Mobility

Non New Starts Share

O&M Funding

Adjusted Financial

Rating

Merit Uncertainty Profile

Adjusted Project Merit

Rating

Project Uncertainty- LAND USE: Current vs. Plans and Policies

- Reliability of Forecasting Methods for Ridership, Costs, and Funding

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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Land-Use vs. Economic Development

• Land Use– Conduciveness of project corridor to achieving

effectiveness goals– Essentially indicates the uncertainty in forecasts of

mobility benefits similar to other external factors like parking costs, gas prices and CBD growth

– NOT impact of the project

• Economic Development – Impact of Project on Land Use and Economic Growth– Project benefit measure

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Project Evaluation and Ratings - Option 2 Possible Measures

Nature of the problem/opportunity

Purpose: To clearly characterize the purpose of the proposed project in terms of specific problems or opportunities in the corridor– Bus travel speeds– Current highway speeds compared to projected future

speeds Vacancy rates– Ratio of land value to current development– Vacancy rates

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Mobility

Purpose: Indicate how much the average traveler benefits and whether many benefit– User Benefits per passenger mile– Projected transit ridership in corridor

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Mobility for Transit Dependents

Purpose: Indicate how much transit dependents benefit– Share of user benefits to lowest income strata

households/share of lowest strata households in region

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Economic Development

Purpose: Determine the extent to which the project will contribute to economic development– Current land use in the corridor– Development plans and policies– Economic development climate– Project accessibility benefits– Permanence of the proposed investment

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Environmental Benefits

Purpose: Indicate how much emissions and energy consumption is reduced

- Tons of emissions

- BTUs

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Operating Efficiencies

Remove as separate measure because it is addressed in cost effectiveness

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Cost-Effectiveness

Purpose: To determine whether the benefits are commensurate with the costs to achieve them

Annualized cost ($) User benefits (hours)

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Financial Capability

Purpose: To ensure that the project sponsor has the funds to construct the proposed project– Capital funding– O&M funding– Non-New Starts share

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Risk and Uncertainty

Purpose: To support informed decision-making by understanding the uncertainty in evaluation measures– Land use - current vs. plans and policies– Forecasting methods - ridership and costs– Peer project experience– Funding reliability/ability to absorb cost increases or

funding shortfalls

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Project Development Procedures

Local Endorsement of the Financial Plan• Sponsoring agency proposes specific funding

sources, amounts and strategies to obtain funding

• Funding agencies endorse pursuit of funding with timeframe

Rationale• Strengthens commitments to financial plan

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Approval of the Baseline Alternative• Baseline defined as the best that can be done

without building a fixed guideway• FTA concurs with the set of detailed alternatives• FTA approves the baseline when final

alternatives developed

Rationale• Clarify baseline definition and approval process

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On-Board Transit Survey• Require recent (5 years?) on-board survey for PE

approval

Rationale• Support reliable forecasts of transportation

benefits• Support identification of purpose and need

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Preliminary Engineering Purpose and Exit Criteria• Sufficient to complete NEPA• Firm cost estimate without significant unknown impacts• Cost sufficient to support financing strategy• Guidance on activities completed at PE completion Rationale• Defines PE• Supports policy of fixing new starts amount• Minimizes possibility of wasted resources due to

increasing capital cost estimate in FD

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New Starts Funding Share Incentive• Higher share of funding available if project’s cost

is not more than 10% higher and ridership not less than 90% of those estimates when project admitted into PE

Rationale• Incentive for good planning estimates

Documents

Large Starts Issues for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking New Starts/Small Starts Listening Session and Seminar San Francisco, CA February 15-16, 2006