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The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission The 11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2007 1

LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

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LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN. The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission The 11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2007. Acknowledgements. City of Columbus Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission

The 11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

May 9, 2007

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Page 2: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

City of Columbus

Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG)

Central Ohio Transit Authority

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Page 3: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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Page 4: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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Page 5: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Identify major pedestrian network

Recognize pedestrian travel needs

Promote pedestrian activities

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Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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“Gravity-based” Model

Non-linked vs. Linked

Latent Demand Score (LDS): 0~100%Relative levels of potential pedestrian travel demand among a given network

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Page 8: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Both ends of walk trips

Attraction Production

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P

P P P

P

P P P

AA

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Distance matters

Source: MAG Pedestrian 2000-Technical Appendix, Dec 1999

Page 10: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

P

P P P

P

P P P

Spatial queries

Buffer

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AA

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Attractor-base queries

Segment-based queries

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Attractor-base queries

Segment-based queries

Page 13: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Non-linked trips: entire trip made by foot◦ Work (college/University)◦ Shopping and Errands◦ School◦ Recreational

Linked trips: partial trip made by foot (most of the trip made by auto/other motorized modes)

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Page 14: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

LDS - normalization 0 ~ 100%◦ Non-linked◦ Linked

Combine non-linked and linked trips

“Composite” LDS=MAX(non-linked LDS, Linked LDS)

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Page 15: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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Page 16: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Grid System vs. TAZ Impact of Transit Service Additional Pedestrian “Attractors”

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Regional Connections

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TAZ Grid

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MAG linked pedestrian tripsLinked LDS = E/A• E=total employment within the buffer• A=total area within the buffer

Attraction (employment) end vs. production (residence) end

Auto vs. Transit

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Revised linked pedestrian tripsLinked LDS = (Pb%+E)/A• P=total population within the buffer• b%=transit share of trips by the population• E=total employment within the buffer• A=total area within the buffer

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Page 20: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Transit Share – b%◦ Mode split information at Block Group (BG) level from

Census 2000 SF3 data◦ Mode split information at Grid level?

◦ Transit Service Frequency by Route at Grid level from Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) Stops in the Grid Headways

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Page 21: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Transit Share – b% (cont’d)

b%=M% (f / F)• M%= max. BG transit share within the entire

region considered.• f= transit service frequency within Grid/its

buffer.• F=max. transit service frequency within Grid/its

buffer.

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Government buildings, sport arena, museum, libraries, theaters, etc.

Four Categories◦ Service area (local vs. regional)◦ Service type (general vs. special)

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Four Categories

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Weight Score

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Example of weighting factor◦ Library and Fairground in the buffer of a segment with

LDS = 80%

Weight score = 3+1=4Weighting factor = 1.04 (multiplicative)

New LDS = 80% 1.04= 83.2%

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Page 26: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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Page 31: LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan Review of MAG Latent Demand Model MORPC’s Modification Results Conclusions

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Understanding pedestrian travel demand Evaluating existing sidewalk system (ongoing) Prioritizing pedestrian facility improvements in a

consistent way

Future work: refine methodologies and update the results periodically

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Ahmad Al-Akhras [email protected]

Chris Gawronski [email protected]

Anthony Hull [email protected]

Zhuojun Jiang [email protected]

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Questions ? Questions ? Please use the Microphone.Please use the Microphone.