Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13

7/29/2019 Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13

1/17

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

FOR THE RISING LATINO ELECTORATE

LATINO INFLUENCEINTHE 2012 ELECTION______________________________

Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.

Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.

Co-founders, Latino Decisions

LD/AV Press Breakfast9/25/13


2/17

Le

Ca

alr

ouCo

Ar

(6.6%)

(7.8%)

(7.9%) (9.6%)

(11.5%) (13.9%)

(17.1%)(19.2%)

(21.9%)

2


3/17

3

Latino Dec

Latino Decisions is a partnership of political scientistand Matt Barreto, and Pacific Market Research, a dgathering center headquartered in Renton, Washin


4/17

4

Sylvia Manzano, Ph.D Gabriel Sanchez, Ph.D.

Director of Operations Director of Research

LATINO DECISIONS ANALYTI

Adrian Pantoja , Ph.D. Dave Damore, Ph.D. Blanca Flor Guillen-Woods

Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Senior Analyst, Director of Evaluatio


5/175

The LD Difference

Culturally Competent Research;

Performed by Professional, Credentialed, andSocial Scientists;

Using an in-house call-center with fully bilingu

Augmented with a network of state-level exp


6/176

Bias from Sampling design Every person in the universe of analysis should have an app

equal probability of having the opportunity to do the surve

Cell, Language, Clustering, List/RDD, Platform

Bias from Non-Response Do those who agree to do the survey and complete the inst

meaningfully from those who refuse? (Call-backs?)

Sample Size

Do you have enough Latino respondents to answer your que

Issues to Consider in Survey Accuracy


7/177

40% of Latino citizens (25% RVs) foreign born (varies Spanish must be available at first-point of connection;

Low numbers of Spanish interviews yields a biased sam

Too assimilated, too native, higher income and highe

If the Spanish is under 25-30% nationally (varies by st

is very likely using call-backs and the sample is biase

Bilingual Interviewing


8/17

Immigration reform a priorityWith all the different issues Congress must address, how important is immigration ref

78%

79%

78%

78%

78%

83%

58%

80%

73%

25%

1

Total

U.S. Born

Naturalized

English

Spanish

Democrat

Republican

Independent

Prior GOP Voter

Extremely/Very important Somewhat important Not too/at

Source: Latino Decisions/Ameri


9/17

Midterm Latino voter community tied to L

undocumented community

Do you know somebody who is anundocumented immigrant?

Relationship to undocimmigrants you

No

33

DK 2

Yes

65

Source: Latino Decisions/Amer

Family3

Oth2

Bothfamily

andfriends46


10/17

Pathway to citizenship strongly preferred

Stronglysupport

38

Somewhatsupport

40

Somewhatoppose

12

Stronglyoppose

9

Increase border security, enforce existing immigration laws,

employee verify, pathway to citizenship, background check,study English, and pay fine.


Pathwcitize

7

Legal status,no

citizenship12

Other/DK9

When it comes to legal status and immi

do you prefer: a pathway to citizenshipwithout the possibility for citizenship?


11/17

House CIR vote matters to Latino voters


Should putthe bill on

hold

32Allowyes/no votenow60

Don't know8

Speaker Boehner said he will not allow a vote unless a majority

of Republicans members support it. Should Boehner allow asimple yes or now vote now or, should he wait until a majority of

the Republicans agree to support the bill?

14

71

No vote

Total favorable to GOP Total Un

House GOP favorability if CIR bill with

citizenship vote not taken vs. if vote is ta


12/17

Republican opening with Midterm v

62

52

36

44

Midterm Surge

Yes No

Thinking back over all the times you have voted, have

you ever voted for a Republican?

50

32

4

More favorabletowards GOP

Still opposeRepublicans

Alresuppor

Even though you may disagree on some iss

Republicans support CIR with path to citizemore likely to support GOP House candida



13/17

Steve King: impact on party evaluati

Congress does not have anobligation to resolve the issue of

the 11 million people who are

here illegally.

They came here on their own.

They came here to live in the

shadows. Theres no moral calling

for us to solve the problem they

created for themselves.They can easily solve it by just

returning to the country where

they came from.9 7

11

Much more favorableto GOP

Somewhat morefavorable to GOP

Somewhat lessfavorable to GOP


14/17

Who gets the blame if CIR fails

If CIR is not passed this year, who will be mostto blame?

9

38

48

4

Democrats Republicans Both equally Don't know

F bili i f 2016


15/17

Favorability ratings of 2016 conte

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas

Ne

+5

+3

+2

-12

-120

27

31

58

73

31

39

29

21

17

49

34

40

21

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ryan

J.Bush

Rubio

Biden

H.Clinton

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion


16/17

A Latino Veep on the ticket?

If the

Democratic

candidate

selects Julian

Castro as their

VP what effectwould it have on

a Dem vote?

Source: Latino Decisions/Americ

75%

in

Feb

Julian Castro on the ticket = + 62% more likely Dem

19% less likely Dem

Could this put Texas in play?

Texas Latinos: 65% more likely

Republicans: 25% more likely

Ever voted GOP: 52% more lik


17/17

A Latino Veep on the ticket?

If the Republican

candidate

selects Ted Cruz

as their VP what

effect would it

have on a GOPvote?

Source: Latino Decisions/Ameri

75%

in

Feb

Ted Cruz on the ticket = -18 31% more likely GOP

49% less likely GOP

Most groups are net negative

Texas Latinos: net26 GOP

Middle class: net30 GOP

Independents: net5 GOP

Documents

Latino Decisions Press Breakfast 9-25-13