The Opportunity and Entry Requirements for the UK

Residential House Building Market 22/23 January

James Sweet Commercial Director - C4Ci Limited

Consultants for Construction Innovation

UK Snapshot

Main Residential Building Zones O Population @ 63,100,000 (2011) # of Dwellings (Residential Units) @ 26m New Build Residential 2012 @ 115,000 New Build FC 2013 @ 122,000

Current demand @ 263,000 SHORTFALL: C 150,000 UNITS PA next 8 years

Current Building Codes UK Building Regs 2010 --- Scottish Building Regs --- Code for Sustainable Homes

UK MARKET OPPORTUNITY

20 Year History of UK House Building

There will be a shortfall of 140,000 units from what the

current demand for housing is and what is currently built and forecast to be built in the next 3 years

New Build Value

Private: £2.75b Public : £0.75b

Pre Recession Peak Private @ £4.5b Peak Public @ £1.5b

A £5billion

Market by

2020

WHAT THE UK BUILDS

Build Profile

Higher density accommodation will need to be considered to meet the demand As will fast built single family homes.

35%

65% TARGET MARKET

115,000 UNITS

Current Timber Frame Market Share

Build

Trad Build

Timber Frame

During the last 6 years Timber Frame has had between 22% and 25% of the market

Expected to be at 28-30% by 2016

25%

Brick and block

HOW THE UK BUILDS

UK Building Techniques - NOW

35 - 40%

Brick& Block

I Joists built Into block work or Beam and Block concrete joists

UK Building Techniques - NOW

Timber

Frame

Using I Joist

& Open Web

Floor

Cassettes

25%

UK BUILD

UK Building Techniques - NOW

CONCRETE

&

Timber Frame

CLT (Future?) 40%

UK BUILD

BUT .. Timber Frame used in Apartments will reduce

REGULATIONS & COMPLIANCE

Compliance – Meeting the Regulations

Building Regulations October 2010 Part L – Energy & Heat Loss - Demands a 25% increase over BR 2006 Quantified by SAP

Its important to get this right !

BUILDING PERFROMANCE REQUIREMENTS

TO MEET REGULATIONS

10 Basic Fabric Aspects for Code 3 & 4 within 4 or 5 of the 9 Categories

1. Air tightness – 5 or under (ideally under 3) 1. Under 3 = MVHR must be installed – air and moisture must be managed

2. U Value of 0.14>0.17 – Ideally 0.17 CL4 1. And /OR -- Junctions Thermally Modelled to get Y at around 0.03-0.04

3. Window U Value @ about 1.4 or better

4. Efficient boilers and space heating used

5. Efficient energy saving devices and white goods

6. Appropriate water saving devices

7. Designed for Lifetime Homes

8. CoC Compliant in all materials

9. Code 4 may benefit from Solar Thermal Hot Water

10. Code 5 will have to have re-newables

11. Optimum compliance with other 5 categories of the Code

The Wright Recipe • Roof U Value down to 0.10 first (cheap and easy to achieve) • Floor U Value down to 0.15 next (more expensive) • Wall U Value down to about 0.20 (lots of give and take here). Can be anywhere between 0.28 (B'regs max=0.30) and 0.15 or less (0.15 = low end of

Passiv House) depending on strategy and level required Changing walls is obviously the most expensive, due to floor area implications, structure, fire etc.. Good Timber Frame comfortably achieves 0.20 to 0.17 and many offer this – Closed Panel TF is at or around 0.17 to 0.15 consistently.

• Windows are a big hitter, and what would have been high spec three years ago is becoming mainstream, windows down to about 1.3 or 1.4. Triple

glazing is becoming a top end eco option in retail UPVC and Jewsons Jeld-Wen window partners, so that would be down to 0.7 to 0.8. This was unheard of 3 years ago.

• Useful trick, watch g-value (solar gains). It is higher on cheaper/higher U-value/hard coat double glazing. The higher U-value losses are partly offset

by the extra solar gains • Ventilation. There's a q50 cut off at 3.5. Lower than that, you have to put some mechanical/deliberately vented ventilation system, not natural. Many

stick at 5 because of masonry difficult going lower than 5, and no chance of needing mech vent/passive vents installed. Timber frame can rock this down to 1.5 with good detailing and site management. That with MVHR can deliver huge savings (15% plus) in SAP and so can move you toward cl 4. MVHR doesn't count for FEE's though

• Y-values, typically every 0.01 change in y-values is a 1% change in SAP. • Cheap as chips on repeats. Getting harder as regs tighten. Need 0.06 typically or better • All lights should now be counted as low-e. • Solar pv can be sold with feed in tariff subsidy, most builders still nervous. Still expensive, but prices have been halving every 18 months.

Compiled by Matthew Wright - C4Ci Building Physicist.

Good Timber Frame comfortably achieves 0.20 to 0.17 and many offer this –

Closed Panel TF is at or around 0.17 to 0.15 consistently.

RECIPE of an Energy Efficient Future Proof Compliant Home

Mitigate Heat loss

GAIN

Manage

“BALANCE”

Ventilation

Recycle Waste

Heat

Harvest Natural Energy

Occupant Awareness

WUV-@ 0.17 FUV@ 0.15 RUV@0.10 Windows @ or around U 0.1.3/0.1.4 Thermal Junction Detailing Y@ 0.04 to 0.06 Air Tight @ under 5 AC/ph Design in/out Solar Gain (g Value vs U Value)

AC Per Hour @ 3 to 5

Air Permeability (m3/h.m2 @ 50 Pascals)

Hot Grey Water Recovery MVHR Log Burner Heat recovery Low Carbon Technology

Accessible and easy ability to monitor energy use. Passed down to deliver a culture change energy appreciation legacy. Lifetime Homes

Appropriate and cost viable renewable technology IF NEEDED OR Gov Incentivised Why Not?

The “F” word “during construction”

New Timber Frame Build Classifications

A = Untreated Open Panel Standard Timber Frame (Not suitable for High

Risk Sites)

B1 = Modified standard timber frame fire treated

B2 = Fire treated with Pre insulated panels

B3 = Fire treated pre insulated with Non Combustible Insulation

C = Non Combustible materials (compartmentalisation) (CLOSED PANEL)

Radiant heat Issue : C category build can be closer than A / B category

FIRE + TIMBER FRAME = Opportunity

During the next 5 years there will be growing demand

For Closed Panel Timber Frame in the UK

There are only about 5 local companies out of 150

That offer this.

Good quality Closed Panel Timber Frame is being

Imported from Germany, Austria or Scandinavia

and a Latvian company

= OPPORTUNITY FOR LATVIAN

COMPANIES THAT OFFER THIS

The “F” word – Impact 1

THE COMMERCIAL ISSUE OF RADIANT HEAT = Less land optimisation for the developer

After Before

£ £ £ £ £££

The “F” word – Impact 2 SOLUTION

A move from Open Panel Timber Frame To...

Closed Panel Timber Frame – or similar

The “F” word - Impact 3

There will most likely be less Multi-

storey Timber Frame Projects

And more Single Family Residential

BUT – there could be solutions in

multi-family suitable for Timber

Frame

33%

66%

The shape of things to come more Closed Panel Timber Frame

Predictable performance Predictable build cost Predictable build time Predictable energy demand Predictable running costs Increased Speed of build Less call Backs TBC: Lower Overall Build Cost vs Traditional Brick and Block

The Future

Closed Panel

Timber Frame

SIPS

Panelised Roof Systems

Future Headlines • By 2016 The UK should be building 175,000 units

• 45% of these will be in the affordable sector.

– These will need to perform better

– These will need to be built faster

• Energy Performance & Speed will favour timber frame

• Closed panel timber frame will become the dominant solution in this sector.

BUT...MORE CAPACITY NEEDED • It is forecast that Timber Frame will be around 28% to

30% of the total build as it is estimated to grow at around 2% per annum from 2013.

UK Market Forward Look

POSITIVE

HOW

To make it work - you need...

Engineer

who knows

all the regulations

and compliance

Building Designer

- Architect That know the planning process

Erectors You can trust

Sales Good people who

know the market

Product

Market Promotion of Latvian Companies

you also need...

AND THE ABILITY TO FUND THE ESSENTIAL COSTS OF MARKET ENTRY

£€

C4Ci / Sylva / LIAA / WoodHouses

• Between C4Ci and Sylva we can guide you and help you develop the right partners – It may be us or it may be others.

• LIAA and WOODHOUSE.LV

– Will help promote Latvian Cos in the UK

– Ecobuild 5-7th March

C4Ci Technical Compliance & Software

• Residential Construction

• Structural Engineering

• Advanced Timber Engineering

• Technical Approvals

• System/Product Testing

• Sustainable Design /Building Physics

• CfSH SAP Building Reg Compliance

• Design CAD CAM Software

• Geographical Market Strength – Europe

– North America

– China

34

Despite being one of the UKs leading Timber Engineering Companies we have worked with all building media including Steel Frame, ICF, Brick and Block , HempCrete, Modcell, SIPS

Sustainable Building Development Low Carbon Engineering

Global Approvals System Engineering

Thank You For Your Attention

In Partnership with Timber Frame Design Software Company

Log Homes, Closed Panel, SIPS, Timber Frame Post and Beam