Laurence Booth Sean Cleary. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Equity Valuation 7 7.1 Identify the basic characteristics of equity securities (i.e., preferred shares

Laurence Booth

Sean Cleary

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Equity Valuation77.1 Identify the basic characteristics of equity securities (i.e., preferred

shares and common shares).7.2 Explain how to value preferred shares.7.3 Explain how to value common shares using the dividend discount

model.7.4 Explain how to value common shares using the price-earnings (P/E)

ratio.7.5 Explain how to value common shares using additional relative value

ratios.7.6 Apply the principles of fundamental valuation and relative valuation.7.7 Explain how speculative price bubbles occur.

© John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd.

7.1 EQUITY SECURITIES• Equity securities represent ownership claims on businesses

with residual claims to earnings after tax and to assets upon dissolution, and the prospect for participation in the growth and profitability of the business

• Equity securities can be valued based on approaches using the present value of expected future dividends (dividend discount models) or relative valuation models

• Equity securities include preferred and common shares, and may pay dividends from after-tax earnings at the discretion of the board of directors

• Unlike bonds, which are most often finite in life, equities like corporations are assumed to have an infinite life so long as the underlying corporation is a going concern

Booth • Cleary – 3rd Edition 3


• According to the Canada Business Corporations Act (CBCA) corporations must have at least one share class with the following rights:– Rights to residual earnings after-tax and all legal

obligations to other claimants have been satisfied– Rights to residual assets upon dissolution or liquidation– Rights to exert control over the corporation by voting to

elect a board of directors, accept financial statements, appoint auditors and approve major issues such as takeover bids and corporate restructurings

• Equities that have all three of these characteristics are usually called common shares


7.1 EQUITY SECURITIES


• Preferred shares have priority over common shares and represent a different share class

• Characteristics of preferred shares:– Pay a fixed, annual or quarterly dividend which is not legally

enforceable by shareholder if not declared by the board of directors– Have priority over the common share class to dividends and assets

upon dissolution– Have no voting rights, except if dividends are in arrears– Have no maturity date– Often have a cumulative feature, where dividends in arrears must be

paid in full before common shareholders can receive a dividend– Often called a fixed income investment because the regular annual

dividend is fixed (or set) at the time the shares are originally issued and does not change after the shares are issued




Valuation of Equity Securities• The discount rate k, to be used when equities are

valued using discount cash flow methods should reflect the current level of interest rates, based on the risk-free rate, plus a risk premium that represents the riskiness of the investment, as in Equation 7-1:




7.2 PREFERRED SHARE VALUATION• Straight preferred shares can be viewed as perpetuities because of

the perpetual, constant dollar dividend they offer, as in Figure 7-1

• Equation 7-2 shows that the price of a preferred share is the annual divided amount divided by the investor’s required rate of return.

• Example: What is the price of a $100 par-value preferred share that pays a 7% dividend if the required return is 10%?

• The annual divided is the par value multiplied by the dividend rate:$100 × 7% = $7

• Like bonds, when the required return equals the dividend rate, the price will equal the par value


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• Equation 7-2 can be re-arranged into Equation 7-3 to determine the investor’s required rate of return

• For market-traded preferred shares, the stock price and annual dividend will be observable, but the investor’s required return is unknown

• Example: What is the implied required return on a $100 par-value preferred share that pays a 7% dividend if price is $57.25?

• The annual divided is the par value multiplied by the dividend rate: $100 × 7% = $7

• Since the preferreds were trading for less than par ($57.25 < $100.00), it makes sense that the required return would exceed the dividend rate (12.22% > 7.00%)


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7.2 PREFERRED SHARE VALUATION


7.3 COMMON SHARE VALUATION:The Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

• All discounted cash flow models estimate the current economic value of any security as the sum of the discounted, or present, value of all promised future cash flows

• The current value is therefore a function of the timing, magnitude and riskiness of future cash flows

• In the case of common stock, the cash flows of a going-concern are expected to continue perpetually, and cash flow risk is taken into consideration through the investor’s required return (discount rate)

• The amount and timing of future dividends is uncertain because dividends, unlike interest payments, are not a fixed obligation of the firm. Instead, dividends are declared at the discretion of the board of directions. Although share prices can fall substantially if dividends are cut or eliminated, there is no guarantee or requirement for boards always to approve a dividend.



The Basic Dividend Discount Model• In the dividend discount model (DDM) the intrinsic value

of a share is equal to the sum of the present value of all future dividends, as in Equation 7-4:

• where:P0 = the estimated share price todayD1 = the expected dividend at the end of year 1Pn = the expected share price after n yearskC = the required return on the common shares


nC

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The Basic Dividend Discount Model• If, instead of holding the stock for n years we hold the stock forever,

Equation 7-4 becomes Equation 7-5:

• The dividend discount model is a type of fundamental analysis because the estimate of inherent worth the stock is based on its economic fundamentals

• Once you estimate inherent worth, you can compare your estimate with the actual market price of the stock to determine whether it is under, over or fairly priced by the market relative to your understanding of the stock’s fundamentals


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The Constant Growth DDM• Equations 7-6 and 7-7 shows how to value a share when dividends

grow at a constant rate of growth g forever:

• Or, more simply:

• This relationship holds when kC > g, otherwise the answer is negative and the answer is uninformative

• Only future estimated cash flows and estimated growth in these cash flows are relevant

• The relationship holds only when growth in dividends is expected to occur at the same constant rate indefinitely


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The Constant Growth DDM• We can re-arrange Equation 7-7 into Equation 7-8 to determine the

investor’s required rate of return:

• If the firm has no profitable growth opportunities (g = 0) and pays out all of its earnings as dividends (D = EPS), the DDM is (Equation 7-9):

• If the firm does have potential growth opportunities, Equation 7-10 states that the price is:


Yield Gains Capital Yield Dividend0

1 gP

DkC

Ck

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0

iesOpportunit Growth of PV Component Growth -No of Value

10

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The Constant Growth DDM• The constant growth dividend discount model predicts

that stock prices will increase if:– Dividends are increased– The growth rate increases– The investor’s required return decreases

• The constant growth dividend discount model predicts that stock prices will decrease if:– Dividends are decreased– The growth rate decreases– The investor’s required return increases


gk

DP

C 1

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Estimating DDM Inputs• The sustainable growth rate can be used as the constant

growth rate, and estimated as (Equation 7-11): – g = b × ROE – g = earnings retention ratio × return on common equity

• Equation 7-12 shows that, using a DuPont analysis, ROE can be decomposed as:– ROE = net profit margin × turnover ratio × leverage ratio– ROE = (net income / sales) × (sales / assets) × (assets /

equity)




The Multiple-Stage Growth Version of the DDM • We can use Equation 7-13 to value multiple stage growth in dividends:

• Example: A company is expected to pay a $1 dividend at the end of this year, a $1.50 dividend at the end of year 2, and a $2 dividend at the end of year 3. Dividends will grow at a constant rate of 4% per year thereafter. Determine the market price of this company’s common shares if the required return is 11%.


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Limitations of the DDM• The dividend discount model’s estimate of prices is highly sensitive to

changes in forecast growth and the investor’s required rate of return• The DDM is also unable to value firms that do not pay dividends• Discounted free cash flow models can be used for firms that do no

pay dividends; and, indeed, this is a more popular approach than the DDM model (see Table 7-1, next slide)

• In fact, the DDM is best suited to firms that pay dividends based on a stable dividend payout history and which are likely to maintain that practice into the future because they are growing at a steady and sustainable rate

• Therefore, this model works well for large corporations in mature industries, such as banks and utility companies



© John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd.Booth • Cleary – 3rd Edition 18



7.4 USING MULTIPLES TO VALUE SHARES• Relative valuation approaches estimate the value of common

shares by comparing market prices of similar companies relative to some financial variables:– Earnings or net income– Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

(EBITDA)– Cash flow– Book value– Sales or revenue

• The hardest part of relative valuation is to find the best set or ratios for comparison and to use the most relevant, appropriate accounting data, making adjustments as necessary to account for both material economic differences and accounting policy differences between companies



The Basic Approach• The price-earnings (P/E) ratio, or the earnings multiple, tells you

how many times projected annual earnings per share the current share price is

• Equation 7-13:

• Example: If you buy a company trading at 10 times projected earnings, it may take 10 years, assuming constant earnings, to recover your investment. Contrast this with a company trading at 100 times earnings, where it may take 100 years of comparable earnings to recover your investment. Note that these analyses ignore time value.


1

0110 ratio / EstimatedEPS

PEPSEPEPSP

7.4 USING MULTIPLES TO VALUE SHARES


• Figure 7-3 shows the history of the P/E ratio of the S&P/TSX based on trailing multiples

• Volatility in aggregate P/E is driven by volatility of earnings:– When earnings fall dramatically, as in a recession, P/E ratios can

become large if earnings drop faster than stock prices




Applying the P/E Ratio Approach• Estimate EPS using historical earnings data, projected trends, and analyst

estimates• Estimate the justifiable P/E ratio using industry averages, a range of possible

P/E values, or subjectively adjusted industry averages based on risk assessment

• Obtain corroborating estimates based on economic, industry, and company fundaments, and/or relate P/E to the fundamentals in the dividend discount model

• Equation 7-15 shows that the expected dividend payout ratio (D1 / EPS1), the required rate of return (kC ) and the expected dividend growth rate (g) affect the justified P/E ratio:

• All else being equal:– the higher the expected payout ratio, the higher the P/E– the higher the expected growth rate, the higher the P/E– the higher the required return, the lower the P/E


gk

EPSD

EPS

P

C 11

1

0 /



• Limitations of P/E Ratios– P/E ratios are uninformative when companies have

negative (or very small) earnings– Volatility in earnings causes volatility in P/Es

throughout the business cycle– Analysts normally smooth or normalize earnings

estimates when forecasting to avoid these limitations, and use scenario analysis to develop a range of potential values for the stock




7.5 ADDITIONAL MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE VALUE RATIOS

• Additional relative value ratios include:– Market to book (M/B)– Price to sales (P/S)– Price to cash flow (P/CF)– Market to EBIT (M/EBIT)– Market to EBITDA (M/EBITDA)

• Note: EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes and EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

• Use of comparative multiples is a popular approach to valuing stock

• Despite the apparent simplicity of generating the ratios, considerable effort goes into analyzing the comparability of accounting data, volatility and other issues affecting the usefulness of relative valuation



• Market-to-book ratio (M/B) = Market price per share/Book value per share

• Multiply the justifiable M/B ratio by the firm’s book value per share to estimate intrinsic value per share

• The M/B ratio fell out of favour in the 1980s and 1990s because high rates of inflation distorted book values




Market-to-book ratio (M/B)• Advantages:– Book values provide a relatively stable, intuitive measure

of value relative to market values– Eliminates the problems associated with P/E multiples

because book values are rarely negatives and less volatile• Disadvantages:– Book values can be sensitive to differences in accounting

standards– Book values may be uninformative for companies with few

fixed assets or lots of off balance sheet financing




• Price-to-sales ratio (P/S) = Price per share / Revenue per share• Multiply the justifiable P/S ratio by the firm’s sales per share to

estimate intrinsic value per share• Advantages:

– Sales are relatively insensitive to accounting policy changes and are never negative

– Sales are not as volatile as earnings– Sales provide useful information about corporate decisions such

as product pricing• Disadvantages:

– Sales do not provide any information about expenses and profit margins, which are key determinants of corporate performance




• Price-to-cash flow (P/CF) = Price per share / Cash flow per share

• Cash flow per share can be estimated as net income plus depreciation, amortization and deferred taxes

• Multiply the justifiable P/CF ratio by the firm’s cash flow per share to estimate intrinsic value per share

• Advantages:– Reduces accounting concerns about earnings

measurement• Disadvantages:– Can flow can be negative




• Multiply the justifiable ratio times the firm’s forecast EBIT or EBITDA per share to estimate intrinsic value

• Market value to EBIT or EBITDA ratios: Use the market value of both debt and equity since EBIT and EBITDA represent income available to satisfy the claims of both debt and equity holders

• Advantages:– Using EBIT and EBITDA instead of net income reduces

volatility caused by EPS




7.6 A SIMPLE APPLICATION: Tim Hortons Inc.Dividend Discount Models

– Suppose Tim Hortons’ discount rate is 6.3% (see Chapter 9 for how this is determined). 2009 analyst consensus EPS is $1.80 and the 2008 dividend payout ratio is 23.22%. If Tim Hortons’ dividends and earnings grow at 5% to infinity, then the price of the shares should be:

– If Tim Hortons’ return on equity is 24.96%, then the sustainable growth rate is: g = (1 – payout ratio) × ROE = (1 – 0.2322) × 0.2496 = 19.16%

– So, Tim Hortons’ could grow faster than 5%, at least in the short term.– Suppose growth is 11% for four years after 2009, with 5% growth to

infinity thereafter. This gives a share price of $39.94. (Try the calculation yourself for practice.)

– If Tim Hortons’ stock price were only $30, our calculations suggest the shares are undervalued.


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Relative Valuation Models– If Tim Hortons’ discount rate is 6.3%, 2009 analyst consensus EPS is

$1.80 , the 2008 dividend payout ratio is 23.22% and Tim Hortons’ dividends and earnings grow at 5% to infinity, we can use Equation 7-15 to value Tim Hortons shares.

– Alternatively, we could use Tim Hortons’ historical averages, industry averages or averages of other comparable companies.

– Example: If Tim Hortons’ average P/E ratio is 23.52 between 2007 and 2008, and its 2008 EPS was $1.55, then its price would be $36.45

– Example: The average P/E for McDonald’s and Starbucks was 25.57. With 2008 EPS of $1.55, Tim Hortons’ price would then be $39.64.

– If Tim Hortons’ stock price was only $30, our calculations again suggest the shares are undervalued.


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7.6 A SIMPLE APPLICATION: Tim Hortons Inc.


7.7 A SHORT PRIMER ON BUBBLES• Bubbles are significant and generally unwarranted increases in asset

prices that lead to unsustainably high price levels• Notable bubbles through history:

– Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble (1636)– South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Bubble (1720)– U.S. Stock Price Bubble (1927 to 1929)– Japanese Real Estate and Stock Price Bubble (1985 to 1989)– Internet Stock Bubble (1995 to 2000)– U.S. Real Estate Bubble and Sub-Prime Crisis (2000s)

• In bubbles investors exhibit herd-like behaviour, overconfidence and fear of regret if they fail to participate in the bubble

• During bubbles investors also tend to believe that “old guidelines” for valuation and risk-management no longer matter. But, they do matter, and bubbles are often followed by market corrections or crashes



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Laurence Booth Sean Cleary. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Equity Valuation 7 7.1 Identify the basic characteristics of equity securities (i.e., preferred shares