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M
ay 1
6,
20
19
Ana
lysi
s of
the
Forc
es A
ffec
ting
Bus
ines
s
Chr
is.K
uehl
@ar
mad
aci.c
om
Now
Wh
at?
Th
e U
S a
nd
th
e W
orl
dE
co
no
my
in 2
01
9
Rie
me
r A
nn
ua
l M
ee
tin
gC
hris
Kue
hl –
Man
agin
g D
irect
orA
rmad
a C
orpo
rate
Inte
llige
nce
Econ
omic
Ana
lyst
for N
AC
M a
nd R
iem
er
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Wel
l Sai
d
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
We
AR
E a
Big
Co
un
try
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Maj
or G
loba
l Iss
ues
•B
rexi
t –
Will
the
UK
sur
vive
thi
s an
d w
hat
will
it lo
oklik
e? I
mpl
icat
ions
for
the
US
•N
ew le
ader
ship
in L
atin
Am
eric
a –
And
res
Man
uel
Lope
z O
brad
or in
Mex
ico,
do
we
have
a C
have
z or
Lul
ain
AM
LO?
Who
is J
air
Bol
sona
ro a
nd w
hy is
he
calle
dth
e Tr
opic
al T
rum
p? H
ow lo
ng f
or M
adur
o?•
Tw
iligh
t fo
r G
erm
any’
s M
erke
l? W
ho r
epla
ces
her
as f
aras
Eur
ope
is c
once
rned
? R
ise
of p
opul
ist
righ
tth
roug
hout
Eur
ope.
•S
audi
Ara
bia
unde
r a
glob
al c
loud
. Will
Tur
key
or I
ran
take
adv
anta
ge?
•In
dia
mak
es m
ove
on C
hine
se m
arke
t sh
are
as t
arif
fsan
d tr
ade
war
s al
ter
the
play
ing
fiel
d•
Cut
ting
loos
e fr
om t
he U
S –
alli
es q
uest
ion
loya
lty
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Glo
ba
l T
hre
ats
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Gro
wth
Up
Sli
gh
tly
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
New
Alli
ance
s
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Tari
ff P
olit
ics
•Is
sue
Num
ber
One
– I
n m
ost
ever
y re
spec
t th
e U
S a
ndC
hina
are
ene
mie
s an
d ha
ve b
een
for
man
y ye
ars.
Con
nect
ed b
y m
utua
l dep
ende
nce.
•Is
sue
Num
ber
Tw
o –
Bas
hing
Chi
na is
pop
ular
wit
hT
rum
p’s
base
and
bas
hing
the
US
is p
opul
ar in
Chi
na.
•C
onsi
dera
tion
s–
Chi
na is
the
mor
e di
rect
ly v
ulne
rabl
e of
the
tw
o as
the
rear
e no
rea
l sub
stit
utes
for
the
US
con
sum
er w
hile
the
US
can
(and
will
) fi
nd a
lter
nati
ve s
ourc
es.
–U
S im
pact
will
be
indi
rect
as
coun
trie
s th
at s
ell t
o C
hina
are
the
ones
tha
t bu
y fr
om t
he U
S a
nd w
ill b
e sl
owed
ifC
hina
slo
ws.
–Ta
riff
s do
not
wor
k at
all
if t
hey
are
tem
pora
ry. C
ompa
nies
wil
not
inve
st in
bec
omin
g a
new
sup
plie
r if
the
y th
ink
the
tari
ffs
will
be
lifte
d la
ter.
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
It i
s a
Re
lati
vely
Ne
w P
rob
lem
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Ro
ot
of
Ch
ina
’s V
uln
era
bil
ity
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Bir
th o
f th
e U
SM
CA
•N
aft
a i
s D
ea
d –
Lo
ng
Liv
e N
aft
a–
Re
pla
ce
d b
y U
SM
CA
– t
ry s
ing
ing
to
th
e t
un
e o
f Y
MC
A
–N
ow
ha
s to
be
ap
pro
ved
an
d r
ati
fie
d b
y U
S C
on
gre
ss,
Mex
ica
n C
on
gre
ss a
nd
Ca
na
dia
n P
arl
iam
en
t
•T
hre
e S
tick
ing
Po
ints
–A
uto
se
cto
r –
mo
re U
S d
om
est
ic c
on
ten
t, h
igh
er
wa
ge
sd
em
an
de
d i
n M
ex
ico,
mo
re a
sse
mb
ly i
n U
S
–D
air
y B
usi
ne
ss –
re
du
ce
d C
an
ad
ian
su
bsi
die
s to
da
iry
an
de
asi
ng
of
rest
ric
tio
ns
on
im
po
rte
d p
rod
uc
t fr
om
US
–D
isp
ute
re
solu
tio
n –
arb
itra
ry t
hre
ats
fro
m a
ny
ag
ain
st a
ny
me
mb
er
reje
cte
d –
ha
s to
go
to
in
de
pe
nd
en
t a
rbit
rati
on
pa
ne
l. T
his
ma
y h
ave
an
im
pa
ct
on
ste
el
an
d a
lum
inu
mta
riff
s
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Mex
ica
n E
co
no
my
Co
mp
are
d
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Join
ed a
t th
e H
ip
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Re
mit
tan
ce
In
co
me
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Dependence
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Who
Buy
s th
e O
il?
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Wh
o B
uys
Fro
m t
he
US
an
d W
ho
Se
lls
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
No
t M
an
y S
urp
lus
Re
ad
ing
s
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Imp
ort
De
pe
nd
en
ce
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Ste
el T
arif
fs
•D
ecad
es o
f ne
gle
ct in
the
ste
el in
dust
ry•
Ori
gina
l tar
iff
syst
em in
clud
ed e
very
body
– t
hen
alm
ost
ever
ybod
y w
as e
xem
pted
. The
n th
ey w
ere
not.
Tod
ayB
razi
l, A
rgen
tina
and
Sou
th K
orea
hav
e ex
empt
ions
.C
anad
a an
d M
exic
o lik
ely
are
next
and
so
is E
urop
e•
Ste
el m
aker
s –
once
bit
, tw
ice
shy
•M
anuf
actu
rers
fee
ling
pinc
h al
read
y un
less
the
y co
uld
use
the
232
exem
ptio
ns•
Chi
na is
not
a f
acto
r as
far
as
expo
rtin
g to
US
. The
yse
ll a
gg
ress
ivel
y to
eve
rybo
dy e
lse
and
that
pus
hes
othe
r na
tion
s to
sel
l ag
gre
ssiv
ely
to t
he U
S
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Wh
ere
Do
es
it C
om
e F
rom
?
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Man
ufac
turi
ng S
tate
s
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Eu
rop
ea
n P
MI
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Glo
ba
l G
row
th
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
As
US
Go
es
– S
o G
oe
s th
e W
orl
d
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Eu
rop
ea
n U
ne
ase
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
So
uth
Asi
a V
ari
es
a G
reat
De
al
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Trad
e is
the
Key
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Tra
nsi
tio
n S
till
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Lati
n A
mer
ican
Div
erge
nce
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Five
Iss
ues
to W
orry
Abo
ut
•R
etur
n of
Inf
lati
on a
nd L
ikel
y Fe
d R
eact
ion
–C
omm
odit
ies
and
Labo
r–
Impo
rtan
ce o
f FO
MC
per
sona
litie
s
•Tr
ade
War
Im
pact
–C
hina
– t
arif
fs, s
truc
tura
l ref
orm
and
glo
bal g
row
th–
Dri
ft a
way
fro
m E
urop
e
•La
bor
Sho
rtag
e–
Hir
ing
and
prod
ucti
vity
•P
olit
ical
Sta
lem
ate
–S
hutd
own
impa
ct–
Neg
lect
ing
big
issu
es –
com
ing
off
“sug
ar r
ush”
•C
onsu
mer
Con
fide
nce
and
Ret
ail S
hift
s–
On-
line
vs. b
rick
and
mor
tar
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Projections
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Sm
all H
ikes
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Fu
ture
Lo
ok
s a
Lit
tle
Dim
me
r
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Pe
op
le N
ee
de
d –
Now
!!!
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
PM
I D
eclin
es
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Ove
rall
CM
I
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Man
ufac
turi
ng C
MI
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
Ser
vice
CM
I
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
So
Tru
e!
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
NE
W a
nd
EX
CIT
ING
•A
nn
ou
nc
ing
a n
ew
pu
bli
cati
on
fro
m A
rma
da
– c
leve
rly
ca
lle
d t
he
Arm
ad
a R
isk
Re
po
rt.
•N
ow
is
you
r b
ig c
ha
nc
e t
o g
et
invo
lve
d i
n o
ur
be
ta t
est
.–
We
wil
l b
e s
en
din
g y
ou
seve
ral
issu
es
of
the
AR
R o
ver
the
sum
me
r w
ith
va
ryin
g c
on
ten
t a
nd
pla
ns
of
org
an
izati
on
.
–Y
ou
ag
ree
to
giv
e u
s fe
ed
ba
ck
on
oc
ca
sio
n –
wh
at
you
fin
du
sefu
l a
nd
wh
at
no
t so
mu
ch
? W
hat
do
yo
u w
an
t th
at
isn’t
he
re?
–W
he
n w
e f
ee
l w
e h
ave
so
me
thin
g r
ea
dy
for
pri
me
tim
e y
ou
wil
l b
e o
ffe
red
a s
ub
scri
pti
on
at
a s
ub
sta
nti
al
dis
co
un
t b
ut
the
re i
s n
o o
bli
gati
on
wh
ats
oeve
r. W
e j
ust
wa
nt
ho
ne
sto
pin
ion
an
d y
ou
r id
ea
s
‹#›
Ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.
com
M
ay 1
6,
20
19
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.
com
For
Tho
se t
hat
Can
’t G
et E
noug
h of
Thi
s
•ch
ris.
kueh
l@ar
mad
aci.c
om•
Who
Are
We
– ch
eck
out
the
web
site
at
ww
w.a
rmad
a-in
tel.c
om•
Sig
n up
for
the
FR
EE
Bus
ines
s In
telli
genc
e B
rief
and
take
a lo
ok a
t th
e B
lack
Ow
l Rep
ort
in a
FR
EE
one
mon
th t
rial
.•
We
are
“eco
nom
ists
for
rent
”. W
e ju
st lo
ve t
o he
lpw
ith
stra
tegi
c pl
anni
ng b
ypo
inti
ng o
ut a
ll th
epo
tent
ial p
itfa
lls a
ndch
alle
nges
!
