Hydroclimatic change driven by land-water use developments in transboundary Sava River

Catchment and across regions

Lea Levi

Hydrologidagarna, March 2014

OBJECTIVES investigate the past-to-present hydroclimatic

changes observed within the SRC

relate the observed hydro-climatic changes in the landscape to various possible change drivers, including atmospheric climate change and historic land/water-use developments in the region

compare and assess the possible generality of obtained SRC results for such relations in view of similar results in climatically different parts of the world.

Sava River Catchment (SRC)

92,158 km²

SRC

• Temperature: CRU TS 2.1 data (Mitchell and Jones, 2005)

• Precipitation: CRU TS 2.1 data (Mitchell and Jones, 2005)

• Runoff: Institute for the development of the water resources Jaroslav Černi, Meteorological and Hydrological Institute of Croatia

• Landuse: ISLSCP II Historical Land Cover and Land Use, 1700-1990

• Hydropower: different sources

AVAILABLE INFORMATION

• The total SRC area: 92,158 km², population 8 176 000• elevation:0-2646 m a.s.l.• 20th century averages:

• Landuse:

• Hydropower: 19 Large dams, 22 hydropowerplants (annual production of 8*106 MWh)

• Irrigation: 0.6 % of the total water use in the catchment used for irrigation; 0.28 % of the

SRC area systematically irrigated

T (°C) P (mm) R (mm)9 1108 531

Cultivated land Pasture Forest23% 7.5% 68.6%

P

PET

Bc ePAET 1lim

2*9.0*21325 TTPET

SRPAETwb

2

2lim

9.0PETP

PAETTc

METHODS

Climate models

Budyko, (1974.)Turc, (1954.)

Langbein, (1949.)

ΔS≈0, annual change in water storage over the catchment

PET

PET

P

P

R

R

1

Arora et. al., (2002)

β≥0 is a sensitivity factor related to PET/P. For PET/P<1, which applies for all the Sava catchments, β≈ PET/P.

Comparison of available R data with a corresponding climate-related change in R (ΔRclim)

•R change being driven only by the AET change estimated by the climate-related AETTclim and AETBclim estimates.

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AE

Tw

b(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1

)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

0

10

20

30

40

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

cultivated land area

pasture area

boreal forest area

temperate mixed forestarea

temperate decidius forestarea

Rela

tive

area

cov

erag

e (%

)

Time (year)

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/P

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

CV(R)

AETwb/P

Hydropower

b)a)

d)c)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

ScaledET(Turc)

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Relat

ive

area

cove

rage

(%)

Time (year)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AE

Tw

b(m

m y

ear

-1)

Time (year)T

(�C

)

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

0,55

0,60

0,65

0,70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydro

powe

r prod

uction

(MWh

km-2

)c)

AET

wb/P;

CV(R)

SRC

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb

(mm

year

-1)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1

)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

0

10

20

30

40

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

cultivated land area

pasture area

boreal forest area

temperate mixed forestarea

temperate decidius forestarea

Rela

tive

area

cove

rage

(%)

Time (year)

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/P

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

CV(R)

AETwb/P

Hydropower

a) b)

d)c)

240

290

340

390

440

490

540

590

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

d)

Evap

otran

spira

tion

(mm

year

-1)

Kozluk

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

Hydr

opow

er p

rodu

ctio

n(M

Wh

km-2

)

AET

wb/P

; CV(

R)Zagreb

a) b)

c) d)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb

(mm

year

-1)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1

)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

0

10

20

30

40

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

cultivated land area

pasture area

boreal forest area

temperate mixed forestarea

temperate decidius forestarea

Rela

tive

area

cov

erag

e (%

)

Time (year)

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/P

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

CV(R)

AETwb/P

Hydropower

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�C

)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otran

spira

tion

(mm

year

-1)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

cultivated land area

pasture area

boreal forest area

temperate mixed forestarea

temperate decidius forestarea

Rela

tive

area

cove

rage

(%)

Time (year)

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydro

power

produc

tion(M

Whkm

-2)

c)

AET

wb/P;

CV(R)

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydropower production

(MWhkm

-2)

c)

AETwb

/P; CV(R)

a) b)

c) d)

Slavonski Brod

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb

(mm

year

-1)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1

)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

0

10

20

30

40

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

cultivated land area

pasture area

boreal forest area

temperate mixed forestarea

temperate decidius forestarea

Rela

tive

area

cove

rage

(%)

Time (year)

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/P

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

CV(R)

AETwb/P

Hydropower

a) b)

d)c)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Relat

ive

area

cove

rage

(%)

Time (year)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and A

ETwb

(mm

year

-1)

Time (year)

T (�C

)

240

290

340

390

440

490

540

590

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

d)

Evap

otran

spira

tion

(mm

year

-1)

Kozluk

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

Hydr

opow

er p

rodu

ctio

n(M

Wh

km-2

)

AET

wb/P

; CV(

R)Kozluk

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AE

Tw

b(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

b)a)

d)c)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

ScaledET(Turc)

Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n (m

mye

ar-1)

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

0,55

0,60

0,65

0,70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydro

powe

r prod

uction

(MWh

km-2

)

c)

AET

wb/P;

CV(R)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Eva

potr

ansp

iratio

n (m

mye

ar-1

)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

240

290

340

390

440

490

540

590

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

d)

Eva

potr

ansp

iratio

n (m

mye

ar-1)

Kozluk

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�C

)

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

610

620

630

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

Scaled ET (Turc)

Scaled ET (Budyko)

ET - data

Evap

otran

spira

tion

(mm

year

-1)

AETTclim

AETBclim

AETwb

a) b)

d)c)

240

290

340

390

440

490

540

590

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

d)

Evapo

transp

iration

(m

myea

r-1

)

Kozluk

SRC Zagreb

Slavonski Brod

Kozluk

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/PH

ydro

pow

er

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb

(mm

year

-1)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AET

wb(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�C

)

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydro

power p

roduct

ion(MW

hkm

-2)

c)

AET

wb/P;

CV(R)

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV

ET/P

Time (year)

Hydropower production

(MWhkm

-2)

c)

AETwb

/P; CV(R)

a) b)

c) d)

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

P, R

and

AE

Tw

b(m

mye

ar-1

)

Time (year)

Annual P

20-year running average P

Annual R

20-year running average R

Mean annual T

20-year running average T

T (�

C)

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

0,62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1960 1980 2000

Hydropower production

CV(R)

ET/P

Hyd

ropo

wer

pro

duct

ion

(MW

hkm

-2)

Time (year)

AE

Tw

b/P

; CV

(R)

d)

CV(R)

AETwb/P

Hydropower

a) b)

d)c)

240

290

340

390

440

490

540

590

640

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Time (year)

d)

Evap

otran

spira

tion

(mm

year

-1)

Kozluk

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1960 1980 2000Time (year)

Hydr

opow

er p

rodu

ctio

n(M

Wh

km-2

)

AET

wb/P

; CV(

R)

SRC Zagreb

Slavonski Brod

Kozluk

SRC

SRC

SRC

CONCLUSIONS

significant and temporally sustained hydroclimatic shifts in AETwb/P to higher levels and CV(R) to lower levels simultaneous with higher hydropower production

observed atmospheric climate changes in T and P cannot explain these data-given hydroclimatic changes in the landscape

no sustained observed landuse changes

Hydropower production development - a proxy for various possible related and/or concurrent changes in land-use and water-use

consistent with previous such results (Destouni et al., (2013)) for hydropower catchments in Sweden and by extrapolation on average for such catchments in different parts of the world.

a possibility for cross-regional generalization of hydroclimatic change effects related to land-water-use

The SRC –transboundary, recently undergone political and social instability- less accessible environmental data.

a catchment-wise investigation approach

utilizing the fundamental water balance physics of hydrological catchments

comparing change results and implications across catchments of different scales and for different parts of the world.

Thank you!