Leadership In The 4th Wave

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Leadership in the 4th Wave

Guy Dumas

Story Jacket Consultants

August 10, 2012

LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH

WAVE 2

Introduction

By 2022, the concept of leadership, in whatever spirit, identity, and behavior it

takes, will be immersed in the “generation of network intelligence” (TEDGlobal, 2012) as

a result of exponential technologies, creativity, adaptability, openness and particularly,

innovation and entrepreneurial practices (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012; Sirois, 2000;

Anderson, 2006; Li, 2010; Drucker, 1985). It is safe to say; the age of network

intelligence will require different values “to revolutionize kindness, redefine happiness

and success, and rekindle community bonds powerful enough to change your life and

the lives of everyone around you” (Kielburger’s, 2006, p. iv). Drucker (1985) stated,

entrepreneurs, “create something new, something different; they change or transmute

values” (p.22). It will most likely be entrepreneurs or the business community to solidify

the age of network intelligence with the guidance of the physicist community.

The world is in the second decade of the 21st century where there is no obvious

shelf life. When Bennis (2001, pp. 3-13), wrote about the future having no shelf life, I

wonder how many readers believed what he was saying would become amazingly

accurate? There is no obvious shelf life for leadership concepts; however leadership

will certainly be an essential part of societal change with the underpinning of

technology.

Having gone through or still going through “the three revolutionary forces –

information technology, communications and biotechnology – has brought about the

demise of one way of living and given birth to another, which is evolving at breakneck

speed” (Sirois, 2000, p.2). “Things are moving so fast that the innovations of a single

decade will soon equal those of the entire previous century” (Sirois, 2000, p.29).

Moore’s Law is exponential growth, where it “states that every eighteen months, the

number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles, which essentially means that

every eighteen months computers get twice as fast for the same price” (Diamandis and

Kotler, 2012, p. 53).

The Chinese curse about living in fascinating times is upon us. Of course, every

generation would say that. However, those words of wisdom seem to be more

pronounced today than any other time in history.


WAVE 3

The waves of change

The last three waves of change are well known as the agriculture, industrial and

knowledge/information waves (Toffler, 1980). However, the identity of the 4th wave is

still open for a vote. The physicist, Dr. Michio Kaku, refers to these waves as steam

power, electricity, high technology and advanced technology for the fourth wave, of

which he speaks of as perfect capitalism (Situfla, 2012). Exhibit 1 summarizes the

characteristics of the four waves.

Exhibit 1

Knowledge/information wave

• Worker ownership

• Balance and sustainability

• Crested 2008

• We are connected and must

cooperate

• Do we understand the need?

• Are we creating value?

• High technology

Fourth (Network Intelligence) wave

• Perfect capitalism

• Servant

• Stewardship

• We are one and choose to co-

create

• Openness

• Communitarian

• Advanced technology

Industrial wave

• Stockholder business owner

• Materialism

• Supremacy of man

• Crested 1955

• We are separate, and we must

compete

• Are we making money?

• Are we beating the competition?

• Electricity

Agriculture wave

• Started 8000 BC

• Ended 1650 – 1750

• Steam power

Sources: Toffler (1980); Maynard (1996); Kaku (2012); Li (2010)


WAVE 4

No one can predict the future with complete accuracy because of multiple

uncertainties. All the best predictive instruments can never fully explain what tomorrow

will look, act and be like, however, “Kurzweil used his exponential growth charts to

make a handful of predictions about the future. Now, certainly inventors and intellectuals

are always making predictions, but his turned out to be uncannily accurate: foretelling

the demise of the Soviet Union, a computer’s winning the chess championship, the rise

of intelligent, computerized weapons in warfare, autonomous cars, and, perhaps most

famously, the World Wide Web” (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 55).

Knowles (1980, p.41) describes a famous philosopher by the name of Alfred

North Whitehead, who said, “today this time – span is considerably shorter than that of

human life, and accordingly our training must prepare individuals to face a novelty of

conditions”. The following is an attempt to portray Whitehead’s theory graphically.

Exhibit 2

At the time, Knowles (1980) described cultural change as “massive inputs of new

knowledge, technological innovation, vocational displacement, population mobility, and

change in political and economic systems” (p.41).

Major cultural change occurred three to four times faster in the 20th century than

in the previous periods. Cultural change in the 21st century will be just as fast or faster

because the world is now more global and exponential. Gates (1999) shared, “If the

1980’s were about quality and the 1990’s were about reengineering, then the 2000’s will

be about velocity” (p. xiii). Today, velocity is given.

20th

Century 18th

-19th

Century Renaissance Ancient Rome

Years if individual longevity

25 30 40 50 70


WAVE 5

21st century innovation opportunity

Joseph Schumpeter discussed economic dynamics as having expansion and

contraction properties; therefore the 21st century will also see recovery and prosperity

occur several times during the period. Forstater (2007), found “Schumpeter concluded

that the principal driving force disrupting the stationary state of the economy was

technological progress (or innovation)” (p.120).

In Drucker’s (1985, pp. 37 - 127) book, Innovation and entrepreneurship, he

presents systemic innovation, meaning innovation opportunity. Drucker discusses

seven sources of innovation opportunity of which the first four are internal, while the

remaining three are external aspects. The four internal source areas are:

• The unexpected – the unexpected success, failure and outside event;

• The incongruity – between reality as it actually is and reality as it is assumed to

be;

• Innovation – based on process need;

• Changes in industry structure.

The three external source areas are:

• Demographics (population changes);

• Changes in perception, mood, and meaning;

• New knowledge, both scientific and non-scientific.

Evolving theories of leadership

In order to deal effectively with the four internal aspects of innovation opportunity,

an appropriate leadership approach is required. There are six basic approaches as

suggested by Daft (2008, pp. 19-20) and they include the great man, trait, behavior,

contingency, influence and relational theories. Other leadership concepts and the six

basic approaches are found in the waves of change:


WAVE 6

Exhibit 3

Knowledge/information wave

Influence theories

Network Intelligence wave

Relational theories (Daft, 2008)

Level five leadership (Maxwell, 2010)

Open leadership (Li, 2010)

Industrial wave

Behavior theories

Contingency theories

Agricultural wave

Great man theories

Trait theories

Source: adapted from Daft (2008)

If specific competencies are a requirement in the 4th wave, then the most

common ones are the ability to learn, business technical knowledge, communication

skills, cosmopolitan world view, entrepreneurial, ethics, initiative, interpersonal skills,

negotiation, organizational, problem solving, stamina, teaching, teamwork, and vision

(Dantzer, 2000). These are remarkably similar to the behaviors described by the youth

as discussed by Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 – 157).

Demographics – Labour force change

Foot (1998) insists that demographics describe two thirds of everything. He also

says “Demography, the study of human populations, is the most powerful – and most

underutilized - tool we have to understand the past and foretell the future” (p.8).

Demographics help in the planning process. Leaders, in the next ten years, will be

engaging a specific labour force with preferred leadership expectations.

The Canadian population grew by 5.9% during 2006 to 2011 (Statistics Canada).

It can be expected to grow at relatively the same rate in the next ten years.


WAVE 7

Exhibit 4

Age characteristics

Canada

Total Male Female

Total population by age groups 4 33,476,685 16,414,225 17,062,460

0 to 4 years 1,877,095 961,150 915,945

5 to 9 years 1,809,895 925,965 883,935

10 to 14 years 1,920,355 983,995 936,360

15 to 19 years 2,178,135 1,115,845 1,062,295

20 to 24 years 2,187,450 1,108,775 1,078,670

25 to 29 years 2,169,590 1,077,275 1,092,315

30 to 34 years 2,162,905 1,058,810 1,104,095

35 to 39 years 2,173,930 1,064,200 1,109,735

40 to 44 years 2,324,875 1,141,720 1,183,155

45 to 49 years 2,675,130 1,318,715 1,356,420

50 to 54 years 2,658,965 1,309,030 1,349,940

55 to 59 years 2,340,635 1,147,300 1,193,335

60 to 64 years 2,052,670 1,002,690 1,049,985

65 to 69 years 1,521,715 738,010 783,705

70 to 74 years 1,153,065 543,435 609,630

75 to 79 years 922,700 417,945 504,755

80 to 84 years 702,070 291,085 410,985

85 years and over 645,515 208,300 437,215

Median age of the population 5 40.6 39.6 41.5

% of the population aged 15 and over 83.2 82.5 84.0

Source: Statistics Canada

Based on the 2011 Canadian census there are 22,924,285 people in the

workforce. By 2021, the scheduled Canadian census will identify approximately

23,881,865 people in the workforce.

There is certainly going to be a change in the composition of the labour force by

2050. According to Mitra (2002, May) there were 18.4 million women in the workforce in

1950, and it jumped to 65.6 million in 2000. By the year 2050, there will be 91.5 million

women in the workforce compared to 100.2 million men. In other word, there will be

over 191.8 million people in the workforce with men accounting for approximately 52%

and woman 48%.


WAVE 8

The percentage change amongst women between 1950 and 2000 is an

incredible 256.8 percent change, while in the same time men changed 71.7%. Change

amongst women in the workforce will slow down and grow and the same rate as men

between 2000 and 2050. If the four components of slowdown in the growth of the

labour force, changes in the gender structure of the labour force, changes in the age

structure of the labour force and changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the

labour force, leadership will need to adapt to these changes.

The perception of plenty during the 4th wave

The previous waves are easier to interpret because they already happened,

unlike the future. Hindsight is 20/20. Toffler (1980) claims he was not the first one to

use the analogy of waves to show civilizational shifts from one era to the next. Toffler

mentions Norbert Elias describing it as “a wave of advancing integration over several

centuries” (p.5). Toffler (1980) goes on to say, “In 1837, a writer described the

settlement of the American West in terms of successive waves – first the pioneers, then

the farmers, then the business interests, the third wave of migration” (p.5).

If we use the well reported and thoroughly documented period of 2008 as the

ending point of the third wave, we can say we are in the infancy stage of the 4th wave.

The 4th wave has no agreed name yet. However, there are a few suggestions. Dr.

Kaku describes the 4th wave as perfect capitalism to include advanced technology such

as artificial intelligence, robotics, infinite computing, ubiquitous broadband networks,

digital manufacturing, nanomaterials, synthetic biology, while Diamandis and Kotler

(2012) describe this period as Abundance.

Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe abundance (TheSasss1, 2011) as

“creating a world of possibility: a world where everyone’s days are spent dreaming and

doing, not scrapping and scraping” (p.13). Diamandis and Kotler have developed an

abundance pyramid similar to the well – known Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs.

They present three levels, while Maslow’s model has five levels. There is more

similarity than differences in the models.


WAVE 9

Exhibit 5

Source: Diamandis and Kotler 2012

As Diamandis and Kotler (2012) explain, “Over the past 150,000 years, Homo

sapiens evolved in a world that was local and linear, but today’s environment is global

and exponential” (p.34). The first three waves were local and linear, and the 4th wave is

clearly global and exponential!

Yunus (2008) publicly supports the concept of Globalization; however he appears

cautious when he says, “Globalization, as a general business principle, can bring more

benefits to the poor than any alternative. But, without proper oversight and guidelines,

globalization has the potential to be highly destructive” (p.5).

Globalization is here to stay. A project by the SUNY Levin Institute called

Globalization 101 provides a learning web platform on numerous challenges and

concerns around:

• Trade

• Environment

• Media

• Development

• Women

• Investment

• Technology

Health and Freedom

Energy, education and

information/communication

Sufficient water, food and

shelter


WAVE 10

• Culture

• Migration

• Human rights

• IMF/World bank

• Energy

• Education

• Health

• International law

Teachers can access the learning material for various purposes. There are many

online resources that promote and support the idea of globalization.

Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 – 157) identify what youth think

successful leaders must develop in the expanding global workplace:

• Communicate a global vision

• Be technologically savvy

• Embrace an open – minded leadership style

• Champion diversity (style, culture, and leadership)

• Display flexibility and respect towards employees

• Foster a corporate culture of teamwork

• Strengthen charisma

• Be ethical

New knowledge – Advanced technology

The following information reflects my notes of new knowledge from viewing the

Youtube video of Dr. Kaku (CUNYQueensborough ,2009, October 28).

“In 2030, a chip will cost .01. Where there is internet, there is prosperity. People

will access the internet through a pair of glasses or contact lenses, which is augmented

reality. The internet is the virtual library where anyone with internet access can read


WAVE 11

anything they want. Of course, by this time, the credibility of the internet has ascended.

Cell phones will be a complete PC. Wall paper will be intelligent. People will engage

their wall. The internet is female. During war times, the internet was to dominate the

enemy. Today, the internet is female. They want to connect. To touch people. The

internet began as a war fighting machine to a tool that connects. The computer

constructs the office environment. The files are more valuable than computers because

the computer will only cost pennies.

The car will have no driver. GPS is the secret to driving the car. Traffic

accidents, traffic jams can disappear. Health issues will disappear. The toilet will

display everything about your health. The toilet will analyze proteins. Chips scattered

throughout the bathroom. Complete medical examination. Genes can be read. Genes

are equivalent owner’s manual. Organs can be reproduced. Today bone, skin, blood

vessels can be grown in the lab. Shortly, other organs can be grown. Computer power

can augment human life.

Azimo is the first advanced Artificial intelligence. It takes six hours to walk across

the room. Robots need to be programmed. Japan is the fastest aging population on

earth. That is why Japan is building these robots to serve as nursing aids. Invisibility is

possible with a microwave invisibility cloth. Meta-materials let things to be bent.

Quantum teleportation is possible. Telepathy is coming faster than people think. A chip

in the human brain will provide access and connection to the internet. Dreams may be

photographed by a computer. In 50 years, there will be a star ship. Time and space

may be bent. Dust clouds cover the raging black hole. Time travel is possible. There

are four types of civilizations. Type 0 is present civilization. Type 1 controls the

planets. Type 2 controls the entire stars. Type 3 controls the entire galaxy”.


WAVE 12

Conclusion

The idea of predictability is controversial. However, as Heijden (2005) indicated,

“If everything was predictable, there would be no room for strategizing. If nothing was

predictable, strategizing would make no sense” (p. 92).

Society is in the early stages of the 4th wave. Leadership based on such

concepts as open leadership (Li, 2010), and primal leadership (Goleman, 2002) are

going to succeed.

Exponential growth is responsible for advanced Technology. Exponential growth

is just doubling numbers, where 1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and so

forth. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) stated, “This astounding increase in computer

power, speed, and memory, coupled with a concurrent drop in both price and size, is

exponential change at work” (p. 54).

Technology enables an abundant life. People will now choose between reality

and augmented reality in an infinite world.


WAVE 13

References

Anderson, C. (2006). The long tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more.

New York, NY: Hyperion

Bennis, W. Spreitzer, G, and Cummings, T. (2001). The future of leadership. Today’s

top leadership thinkers speak to tomorrow’s leaders. San Francisco, CA: Jossey –

Bass.

CUNYQueensborough (2009, October 28). The world in 2030 by Dr. Michio Kaku.

Retrieved on August 8 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=219YybX66MY

Daft, R. (2008). The leadership experience. Mason, OH: South – Western Cengage

Learning.

Dantzer, M. Ruth (2000). Leadership requirements in the 21st century: The perceptions

of Canadian public sector leaders. Ph.D. Dissertation, Andrews University, United

States -- Michigan. Retrieved July 31, 2012, from ABI/INFORM Global.(Publication

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York, NY: Free Press

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Inc.

Foot, D. (1998). Boom, bust and echo 2000. Toronto, Ontario: Macfarlane Walter &

Ross.


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Forstater, M. (2007). Little book of big ideas: Economics. London, UK: Elwin Street

Limited.

Gates, W. (1999). Business at the speed of thought: Using a digital nervous system.

New York, NY: Warner Books, Inc.

Situfla, (2012), Michio Kaku – The Fourth Wave @ Telefonica Leadership Conference 2012

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Kielburger, C. and Kielburger, M. (2006). Me to We: Finding meaning in a material

world. Mississauga, ON: John Wiley and Sons.

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Li, C. (2010). Open Leadership: How social technology can transform the way you lead.

San Francisco, CA: Jossey - Bass

Maynard, H., Jr, and Mehrtens, S. (1996). The Fourth Wave. San Francisco, CA:

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Mitra Toossi. (2002, May). A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050.

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SUNY Levin Institute. (n.d) Globalization. Retrieved on August 8, 2012 from

http://www.globalization101.org/teaching-tools/


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capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs.

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Leadership In The 4th Wave