Leander I.S.D.Demographic Update

October 15, 2015

Population & Survey Analysts

L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

2

Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,

2010-11

Numeric Change

in Student

Enrollment

Fall 2015

to

Fall 2016

(pre-PEIMS Estimates)

3

3

Total Enrollment

(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,

2010-11

Numeric Change

in Student

Enrollment

Fall 2010

to

Fall 2015

(pre-PEIMS Estimates)

4

4

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Past Growth RatesE

nro

llment

9.12%7.37%

6.83%5.58%

3.60%3.22%

10.22%

3.11%2.15%

2.56%

5

KN as a Percentage

of Total Enrollment

Year

Leander

% KN

Texas

% KN

Leander's

Rank

2008 8.61% 7.65% 6th

2009 8.56% 7.76% 5th

2010 7.96% 7.68% 17th

2011 7.66% 7.58% 22nd

2012 7.45% 7.46% 34th

2013 7.22% 7.57% 38th

2014 6.93% 7.43% 48th

2015 6.82% --- ---* Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students

6

Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births

7

Deceleration in Growth

The past few years’ enrollment reflected a deceleration in growth. Why?

• Fewer younger students

• Younger families moving into fewer new homes

• Lack of regeneration in built-out subdivisions

These changes in trends do NOT mean that growth in Leander I.S.D. is stopping, but, like almost all other large districts, it has slowed.

8

Fastest Growth Districts in Texas(pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015)

Districts with >20,000 Students

Rank District

Sept 2015

Enrollment GrowthPercent

Growth

1 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8%

2 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0%

3 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5%

4 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2%

5 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4%

6 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6%

7 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0%

8 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9%

9 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2%

10 Fort Worth ISD 86,835 860 1.0%

11 Fort Bend ISD 72,993 841 1.2%

12 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3%

13 Cy-Fair ISD 113,822 799 0.7%

14 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9%

(Ranked by Number of Students Added)

9

Fastest Growth Districts in Texas(pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015)

Districts with >20,000 Students

Rank District

Sept 2015

Enrollment GrowthPercent

Growth

1 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0%

2 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6%

3 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9%

4 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4%

5 Comal ISD 21,081 754 3.7%

6 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5%

7 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2%

8 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2%

9 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8%

10 Pearland ISD 21,034 484 2.4%

11 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3%

12 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0%

13 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9%

14 Keller ISD 34,244 625 1.9%

(Ranked by Percent Growth)

10

Unique Demographic Characteristics

Leander I.S.D.

• Low Economically Disadvantaged population (19.7%)

[58.4% in Texas]

Leander ISD ranked 3rd in Texas

• High STAAR passage rate (83%)

[71.8% in Texas]

Leander ISD ranked 11th in Texas

• Highly educated population (44% have bachelor’s degree) [41% in Austin and 27.6% in Texas]

• High median income level ($81,615) [$63,603 in the Austin metro area]

11

Private and Charter Schools

Current

Enrollment

From LISD in

KN-12th

Enrollment

in 5 yrs.

From LISD in

KN-12th

Austin International School 3yrs-5th 210 8 250 9

Cedar Park Montessori School 18mos-6th 85 18 90 19

Founder's Classical Academy K-11th 495 446 650 585

Gateway College Prep School K-12th 1,150 31 1,389 35

Harbor Christian Academy 1st-12th 45 27 55 33

Harmony School for Political Science K-11th 827 0 1,000 0

Hill Country Christian School PK-12th 600 423 700 494

Holy Family Catholic School PK-8th 509 229 709 319

Leander Charter Academy PK-12th 200 138 300 207

Primrose School at Vista Ridge Inf-K,AS 200 7 200 7

Primrose School at Four Points Inf-K,AS 180 9 185 9

School in the Hills - Steiner Ranch 18 mos-3rd 222 36 180 29

School in the Hills - River Place 18 mos-3rd 250 41

Sterling Classical School PK-12th 302 179 350 207

Summit Christian Academy PK-12th 335 241 450 324

4.61% 5.05%% of LISD residents in private schools

Current Enrollment Projected 5 YearsGrades

opens Jan 2016

12

L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

13

Development Density% of

LISD

Built out 35%

Active 8%

Planned 2%

Undev. 20%

Parks 3%

B.C.N.W.R. 7%B.C.N.W.R.

Targeted 9%

B.C. Preserve 12%

Other Preserve 1%

Water 3%14

14

# %

Subdivisions -

Built-out29,556 29,518 -38 0% --

Subdivisions -

Actively Building2,412 3,224 812 34% 80%

Apartments 3,005 3,119 114 4% 11%

Condo 286 375 89 31% 9%

MHP 26 29 3 12% 0%

Percent of

Growth

Added Students

2014 to 2015Resident

Students

in 2015

Resident

Students

in 2014

Student Growth by

Type of Housing

15

Factors Contributing to New Housing Growth

MUDs and TIRZ Financing

Changing Land Plans

New Comprehensive Plans

Large Mixed Use Developments

Condo-izing of Formerly Planned Multi-Family and Commercial

Availability of Water

Environmental Concerns

Transportation Improvements

16

North side:

Lakeline extension up to FM 2243

San Gabriel Parkway now spans CR 270 to Bagdad

Planned expansion East (to Ronald Reagan) and

West (to future Lakeline)

Improved access within and through subdivisions:

Lakeline extension (Mason Hills)

Goodnight and other arterials (Travisso)

Osage extension (Crystal Falls and Travisso) - planned

East side:

Recent thoroughfares (Hero Way, E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr)

Future extensions (E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr)

Whitestone current widening east of 183A

Leander I.S.D. Future TransportationTransportation Improvements Drive New Housing Construction

17

Largest Growth

Single-Family Developments

2015-2020 2020-2025 2015-2025

4650 Travisso 830 1,139 1,969

4625, 4630,

4675, 4680,

4685

Crystal Falls 1,096 164 1,260

1150 Bryson 407 538 9454605&4610 Mason Hills 617 308 925

1175 Palmera Ridge and Palmera Bluff 376 508 8841110 Caughfield Development 190 447 637

1110 Highland Meadows 160 455 615

1225 Parkside at Mayfield Ranch 375 199 5743970 Deerbrooke 143 425 5683400 Kutscher Ranch 52 430 4823960 Oak Creek 292 182 4743900 Greatwood 160 230 3904000 Hawkes Landing 163 146 309

4,861 5,171 10,032

23,827

New Housing OccupanciesSingle-Family DevelopmentsNBCD

Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):

Total Subdivision Housing Projected:

18

Multi-Family Developments

in the Next Two Years

2705 Aria at Steiner Ranch 35% o ccupied 195

2580 Cardinal Point TDHCAappro ved by

T D H C A 120

2580 Escape at Four Points 80% o ccupied 3441300 Leander Crossing mo ving dirt 2751260 Parkway Crossing US HUD mo ving dirt 242

2700 Tacara Steiner Ranchplanned fo r

2016 246

4900 The Tuckaway TDHCAapplying to

T D H C A 256

1160 Village at Leander Stationunder

co nstruct io n 220

2550 Windy Ridge TDHCAunder

co nstruct io n 120

Apartment ComplexNBCD Subsidized UnitsStatus

19

Projected

New

Housing

Occupancies

2015 – 2025

Year Ending in

October: 

Single

Family

Condo/

Townhome

Housing

Multi-

Family

Total New

Housing

Units

2016 1,752 359 715 2,111

2017 1,969 446 1,003 2,415

2018 2,304 619 1,166 2,923

2019 2,574 716 1,591 3,290

2020 2,681 679 1,726 3,360

2021 2,717 550 1,617 3,267

2022 2,712 444 1,308 3,156

2023 2,493 314 890 2,807

2024 2,326 216 814 2,542

2025 2,299 102 672 2,401

2015-2020 11,280 2,819 6,201 20,300

2020-2025 12,547 1,626 5,301 19,474

2015-2025 23,827 4,445 11,502 39,774

20

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

September 2015

to

October 2016

21

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

September 2015

to

October 2020

2222

Projected New

Housing

Occupancies

September 2015

to

October 2025

2323

L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

24

Ratios of Students per Household

2012 2013 2014 2015

Apartments0.31 students

per unit

0.31 students

per unit

0.29 students

per unit

0.30 students

per unit

Single-Family

Homes

0.65 students

per home

0.66 students

per home

0.65 students

per home

0.66 students

per home

25

Students per Home in the

Master Planned Communities

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Avery Ranch 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.69 0.70

Crystal Falls 0.75 0.75 0.69 0.72 0.70

Mason Hills -- -- -- -- 0.36

Steiner Ranch 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09

Travisso -- -- -- -- 0.41

Twin Creeks 0.96 0.72 0.76 0.81 0.82

26

L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

27

Three Scenarios of GrowthE

nro

llm

en

t Moderate

Growth

2020 – 43,546

2025 – 50,226

High Growth

2020 – 44,668

2025 – 52,938

Low Growth

2020 – 42,330

2025 – 47,193

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

2012 2016 2020 2025

28

L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning

Population & Survey Analysts

29

Projected Resident

EE-5th Grade

Students

by

Current

Elementary

Attendance Zone

30

Open

Elementary #26

2017-18

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

31

Open

Elementary #27

2019-20

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

32

Open

Elementary #28

2020-21

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

33

Open

Elementary #29

2021-22

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

34

Open

Elementary

#30 and #31

2022-23

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

35

Open

Elementary #32

2023-24 or

2024-25

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

36

Summary

Elementary

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

37

Summary

Elementary Long Range Plan

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total

2015 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7

2014 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7

2013 Study 1 1 1 2 1 6

2012 Study 1 1 1 1 1 5

New Elementary Schools Projected to be Needed

38

Projected Resident

6th-8th Grade

Students

by

Current

Middle School

Attendance Zone

39

Open

Middle School #9

2020-21

Middle School

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

40

Open

Middle School #10

2023-24

Middle School

Long Range Planning

Planning Document Only

No decisions

have been made about

school sites, timing or

attendance zones

41

Summary

Middle School Long Range Plan

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2015 Study MS #9

2014 Study MS #9 MS #10

2013 Study

2012 Study MS #9

New Middle Schools Projected to be Needed

MS #9

MS #10

MS #10

MS #10

42

Projected Resident

9th-12th Grade

Students

by

2016-17

High School

Attendance Zone

43

Summary

High School Long Range Plan

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2015 Study Glenn HS HS #7

2014 Study HS #6

2013 Study HS #6 HS #7

2012 Study HS #7

New High Schools Projected to be Needed

HS #6

HS #7

44

Leander I.S.D.Demographic Update