Upload
butest
View
303
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
1
Learning Agents LaboratoryComputer Science Department
George Mason University
Prof. Gheorghe Tecuci
2
OverviewOverview
Basic bibliography
Learning strategies
Instructable agents: the Disciple approach
3
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
4
Machine Learning is the domain of Artificial
Intelligence which is concerned with building
adaptive computer systems that are able to improve
their competence and/or efficiency through learning
from input data or from their own problem solving
experience.
What is Machine LearningWhat is Machine Learning
What does it mean to improve competence?
What does it mean to improve efficiency?
5
Two complementary dimensions for learningTwo complementary dimensions for learning
A system is improving its competence if it learns to solve a broader class of problems, and to make fewer mistakes in problem solving.
A system is improving its efficiency, if it learns to solve the problems from its area of competence faster or by using fewer resources.
Competence
Efficiency
6
The architecture of a learning agentThe architecture of a learning agent
Ontology
Rules/Cases/Methods
Problem SolvingEngine
Learning Agent
User/Environment
Output/
Sensors
Effectors
Input/
Knowledge Base
LearningEngine
Implements learning
methods for extending and refining
the knowledge base to improve agent’s
competence and/or
efficiency in problem solving.
Implements a general problem solving method that uses the knowledge from the knowledge base to interpret the
input and provide an appropriate output.
Data structures that represent the objects from the application domain, general laws governing them, actions that can be performed with them, etc.
7
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
• Rote learning
• Learning from instruction
• Learning from examples
• Explanation-based learning
• Conceptual clustering
• Quantitative discovery
• Abductive learning
• Learning by analogy
• Instance-based learning
• Case-based learning
• Neural networks
• Genetic algorithms and evolutionary computation
• Reinforcement learning
• Bayesian learning
• Multistrategy learning
A Learning Strategy is a basic form of learning characterized by the employment of a certain type of inference (like deduction, induction or analogy) and a certain type of computational or representational mechanism (like rules, trees, neural networks, etc.).
8
Successful applications of Machine LearningSuccessful applications of Machine Learning
• Learning to recognize spoken words (all of the most successful systems use machine learning);
• Learning to drive an autonomous vehicle on public highway;
• Learning to classify new astronomical structures (by learning regularities in a very large data base of image data);
• Learning to play games;
• Automation of knowledge acquisition from domain experts;
• Instructable agents.
9
Basic ontological elements: instances and conceptsBasic ontological elements: instances and concepts
An instance is a representation of a particular entity from the application domain.
A concept is a representation of a set of instances.
government_of_Britain_1943government_of_US_1943
state_government
instance_of instance_of
“state_government” represents the set of all entities that are governments of states. This set includes “government_of_US_1943” and “government_of_Britain_1943” which are called positive examples.
government_of_US_1943
government_of_Britain_1943
state_government
“instance_of” is the relationship between an instance and the concept to which it belongs.
An entity which is not an instance of a concept is called a negative example of that concept.
10
Concept generalityConcept generality
A concept P is more general than another concept Q if and only if the set of instances represented by P includes the set of instances represented by Q.
state_government
democratic_government
representative_democracy
totalitarian_government
parliamentary_democracy
Example:
“subconcept_of” is the relationship between a concept and a more general concept.
state_government
subconcept_of
democratic_government
11
A generalization hierarchyA generalization hierarchy
feudal_god_king_government
totalitarian_government
democratic_government
theocratic_government
state_government
military_dictatorship
police_state
religious_dictatorship
representative_democracy
parliamentary_democracy
theocratic_democracy
monarchy
governing_body
other_state_government
dictator
deity_figure
chief_and_tribal_council
autocratic_leader
democratic_council_or_board
group_governing_body
other_group_
governing_body
government_of_Italy_1943
government_of_Germany_1943
government_of_US_1943
government_of_Britain_1943
ad_hoc_ governing_body established_ governing_body
other_type_of_governing_body
fascist_state
communist_dictatorshipreligious_
dictatorshipgovernment_
of_USSRy_1943
12
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from Examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
13
Approach:Compare the positive and the negative examples of a concept, in terms of their similarities and differences, and learn the concept as a generalized description of the similarities of the positive examples.
This allows the agent to recognize other entities as being instances of the learned concept.
Illustration
Positive examples of cups: P1 P2 ...
Negative examples of cups: N1 …
A description of the cup concept: has-handle(x), ...
Empirical inductive concept learning from examplesEmpirical inductive concept learning from examples
Given
Learn
14
The learning problemThe learning problem
Given • a language of instances; • a language of generalizations; • a set of positive examples (E1, ..., En) of a concept • a set of negative examples (C1, ... , Cm) of the same concept • a learning bias • other background knowledge
Determine • a concept description which is a generalization of the positive
examples that does not cover any of the negative examples
Purpose of concept learning:Predict if an instance is an example of the learned concept.
15
Generalization and specialization rulesGeneralization and specialization rules
Learning a concept from examples is based on generalization and specialization rules:
-A generalization rule is a rule that transforms an expression into a more general expression;
- A specialization rule is a rule that transforms an expression into a less general expression.
Indicate various generalizations of the following sentence:
Students who have lived in Fairfax for 3 years.
16
Generalization (and specialization) rulesGeneralization (and specialization) rules
Climbing the generalization hierarchy
Dropping condition
Generalizing numbers
Adding alternatives
Turning constants into variables
17
Climbing/descending the generalization hierarchyClimbing/descending the generalization hierarchy
Generalizes an expression by replacing a concept with a more general one.
?O1 is single_state_forcehas_as_governing_body ?O2
?O2 is representative_democracy
generalization specializationrepresentative_democracy democratic_government
The set of single state forces governed by representative democracies
democratic_government representative_democracy
?O1 is single_state_forcehas_as_governing_body ?O2
?O2 is democratic_government
The set of single state forces governed by democracies
democratic_government
representative_democracy parliamentary_democracy
18
Basic idea of version space concept learningBasic idea of version space concept learning
UB+
Initialize the lower bound to the first positive example (LB=E1) and the upper bound (UB) to the most general generalization of E1.
LB
++
UBLBIf the next example is a positive one,
then generalize LB as little as possible to cover it.
_++
UBLB
If the next example is a negative one, then specialize UB as little as possible to uncover it and to remain more general than LB.
_++
UB=LB _
_ ++
…
Repeat the above two steps with the rest of examples until UB=LB.This is the learned concept.
Consider the examples E1, … , E2 in sequence.
19
The candidate elimination algorithmThe candidate elimination algorithm
1. Initialize S to the first positive example and G to its most general generalization
2. Accept a new training instance I• If I is a positive example then
- remove from G all the concepts that do not cover I;- generalize the elements in S as little as possible to
cover I but remain less general than some concept in G;- keep in S the minimally general concepts.
• If I is a negative example then- remove from S all the concepts that cover I;
- specialize the elements in G as little as possible to uncover I and be more general than at least one element from S;
- keep in G the maximally general concepts.
3. Repeat 2 until G=S and they contain a single concept C (this is the learned concept)
20
Illustration of the candidate elimination algorithmIllustration of the candidate elimination algorithm
Language of instances: (shape, size)shape: {ball, brick, cube}size: {large, small}
Learning process:
Input examples:
ball small +
shape size classball large +brick small –cube large –
-(brick, small)
G = {(ball, any-size) (any-shape, large)}
2
-(cube, large)
G = {(ball, any-size)}3
G = {(any-shape, any-size)}
S = {(ball, large)}
+(ball, large)
+(ball, large)
1
1
+(ball, small)
S = {(ball, any-size)}||
4
Language of generalizations: (shape, size)shape: {ball, brick, cube, any-shape}size: {large, small, any-size}
21
General features of the empirical inductive methods General features of the empirical inductive methods
Require many examples.
Do not need much domain knowledge.
Improve the competence of the agent.
The version space method relies on an exhaustive bi-directional search and is computationally intensive. This limits its practical applicability.
Practical empirical inductive learning methods (such as ID3) rely on heuristic search to hypothesize the concept.
22
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from Examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
23
Explanation-based learning problemExplanation-based learning problem
GivenA training examplecup(o1) color(o1, white), made-of(o1, plastic), light-mat(plastic),
has-handle(o1), has-flat-bottom(o1), up-concave(o1),...Learning goalA specification of the desirable features of the concept to be learned (e.g. the learned concept should have only features from the example)Background knowledgeComplete knowledge that allows proving that the training example represents the concept: cup(x) liftable(x), stable(x), open-vessel(x).
liftable(x) light(x), graspable(x).stable(x) has-flat-bottom(x). …
DetermineA concept definition representing a deductive generalization of the training example that satisfies the learning goal.cup(x) made-of(x, y),light-mat(y),has-handle(x),has-flat-bottom(x),up-concave(x).
Purpose of learningImprove the problem solving efficiency of the agent.
24
Explanation-based learning methodExplanation-based learning method
A example of a cupcup(o1): color(o1, white), made-of(o1, plastic), light-mat(plastic), has-handle(o1), has-flat-bottom(o1), up-concave(o1),...
cup(o1)
stable(o1)liftable(o1)
graspable(o1)light(o1)
light-mat(plastic)
made-of(o1,plastic)
......
has-handle(o1)
cup(x)
stable(x)liftable(x)
graspable(x)light(x)
light-mat(y)made-of(x,y)
......
has-handle(x)
The proof identifies the characteristic features: Proof generalization generalizes them:
• has-handle(o1) is needed to prove cup(o1)
• color(o1,white) is not needed to prove cup(o1)
• made-of(o1, plastic) is needed to prove cup(o1) • made-of(o1, plastic) is generalized to made-of(x, y);• the material needs not be plastic.
1. Construct an explanation that proves that the training example is an example of the concept to be learned.2. Generalize the explanation as much as possible so that the proof still holds, and extract from it a concept definition that satisfies the learning goal.
25
DiscussionDiscussion
How does this learning method improve the efficiency of the problem solving process?
cup(o1)
stable(o1)liftable(o1)
graspable(o1)light(o1)
light-mat(plastic)
made-of(o1,plastic)
......
has-handle(o1)
cup(x)
stable(x)liftable(x)
graspable(x)light(x)
light-mat(y)made-of(x,y)
......
has-handle(x)
The proof identifies the characteristic features Proof generalization generalizes them
Do we need a training example to learn an operational definition of the concept? Why?
The learner does not need a training example. It can simply build proof trees from top-down, starting with an abstract definition of the concept and growing the tree until the leaves are operational features. However, without a training example the learner will learn many operational definitions. The training example focuses the learner on the most typical example.
A cup is recognized by using a single rule rather than building a proof tree.
26
• Needs only one example
• Requires complete knowledge about the concept (which makes this learning strategy impractical).
• Improves agent's efficiency in problem solving
General features of explanation-based learningGeneral features of explanation-based learning
• Shows the importance of explanations in learning
27
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from Examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
28
Learning by analogyLearning by analogy
Learning by analogy means acquiring new knowledge about an input entity by transferring it from a known similar entity.
sun
planet
yellow
mass
mass
temperature
greater
color
revolves-around
attractsTsun
Tplanet
Msun
Mplanet
causes
temperature
greater
mass
mass
revolves-around
attractsMnucleus
causes ?greater
nucleus
electron
Melectron
sun
planet
yellow
mass
mass
temperature
greater
color
revolves-around
attractsTsun
Tplanet
Msun
Mplanet
causes
temperature
greater
mass
mass
revolves-around
attractsMnucleus
causes ?greater
nucleus
electron
Melectron
The hydrogen atom is like our solar system.
The Sun has a greater mass than the Earth and attracts it, causing the Earth to revolve around the Sun. The nucleus also has a greater mass then the electron and attracts it. Therefore it is plausible that the electron also revolves around the nucleus.
29
DiscussionDiscussion
Which is the central intuition supporting learning by analogy:If two entities are similar in some respects then they could be similar in other respects as well.
Examples of analogies:
Pressure Drop is like Voltage Drop
A variable in a programming language is like a box.
Provide other examples of analogies.
30
Learning by analogy: the learning problemLearning by analogy: the learning problem
Given:
• A partially known target entity T and a goal concerning it.
• Background knowledge containing known entities.
Find:
• New knowledge about T obtained from a source entity S belonging to the background knowledge.
Partially understood structure of the hydrogen atom under study.
Knowledge from different domains, including astronomy, geography, etc.
In a hydrogen atom the electron revolves around the nucleus, in a similar way in which a planet revolves around the sun.
31
Learning by analogy: the learning methodLearning by analogy: the learning method
• ACCESS: find a known entity that is analogous with the input entity.
• MATCHING: match the two entities and hypothesize knowledge.
• EVALUATION: test the hypotheses.
• LEARNING: store or generalize the new knowledge.
Store that, in a hydrogen atom, the electron revolves around the nucleus. By generalization from the solar system and the hydrogen atom, learn the abstract concept that a central force can cause revolution.
Based on what is known about the hydrogen atom and the solar system identify the solar system as a source for the hydrogen atom.
One may map the nucleus to the sun and the electron to the planet, allowing one to infer that the electron revolves around the nucleus because the nucleus attracts the electron and the mass of the nucleus is greater than the mass of the electron.
A specially designed experiment shows that indeed the electron revolves around the nucleus.
32
DiscussionDiscussion
How does analogy help?
Why not just study the structure of the hydrogen atom to discover that new knowledge?We anyway need to perform an experiment to test that the electron revolves around the hydrogen atom.
How could we define problem solving by analogy?
How does analogy help to solve new problems?
33
• Requires a huge amount of background knowledge from a wide variety of domains.
• Improves agent's competence through knowledge base refinement.
General features of analogical learningGeneral features of analogical learning
• Is a very powerful reasoning method with incomplete knowledge
• Reduces the solution finding to solution verification.
34
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from Examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
35
Abductive learningAbductive learning
Finds the hypothesis that explains best an observation (or collection of data) and assumes it as being true.
The learning problem
• Let D be a collection of data• Find all the hypotheses that (causally) explain D• Find the hypothesis H that explains D better than other hypotheses • Assert that H is true
The learning method
Illustration:There is smoke in the East building.Fire causes smoke.Hypothesize that there is a fire in the East building.
36
Abduction (cont.)Abduction (cont.)
Raining causes the streets to be wet.I hypothesize that it has rained on the University Dr.
Provide other examples of abductive reasoning.
Consider the observation: “University Dr. is wet”Use abductive learning.
Which are other potential explanations?
What real world applications of abductive reasoning can you imagine?
37
Learning strategiesLearning strategies
Inductive learning from Examples
Deductive (explanation-based) learning
Introduction
Analogical learning
Abductive learning
Multistrategy learning
38
Multistrategy learningMultistrategy learning
Multistrategy learning is concerned with developing learning agents that synergistically integrate two or more learning strategies in order to solve learning tasks that are beyond the capabilities of the individual learning strategies that are integrated.
39
Examples
Learningfrom examples
Explanation-based learning
Multistrategy
Knowledge
many one several
learning
needed
Effect onagent'sbehavior
improves
competence
improves
efficiency
improvescompetence or/ and efficiency
Type ofinference induction deduction
induction and/ or deduction
Complementariness of learning strategiesComplementariness of learning strategies
complete incompleteknowledge
very littleknowledge
needed
40
OverviewOverview
Basic bibliography
Learning strategies
Instructable agents: the Disciple approach
41
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
42
The knowledge engineer attempts to understand how the subject matter expert reasons and solves problems and then encodes the acquired expertise into the system's knowledge base.
This modeling and representation of expert knowledge is long, painful and inefficient.
How are agents built and why it is hard
KnowledgeEngineer
DomainExpert
Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
Intelligent Agent
ProgrammingDialog
Results
Why?
43
Elaborate a theory and methodology for the mixed-initiative, end-to-end development of knowledge bases
and agents by subject matter experts, with limited assistance from knowledge engineers.
The expert teachesthe agent to perform various tasks in a way that resembles
how the expert would teach a person.
The agent learnsfrom the expert,
building, verifyingand improving itsknowledge base
ApproachMixed-initiative
reasoning between an
expert that has the knowledge
to be formalized and a learning
agent shell that knows how to
formalize it.In
terf
ace
ProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
The Disciple approach: Problem statement
How is this approach addresses the knowledge acquisition bottleneck?
44
MainframeComputers
Software systems developed and used by computer experts
PersonalComputers
Software systems developedby computer experts
and used by persons thatare not computer experts
LearningAgents
Software systems developed and used by persons that are
not computer experts
Inte
rfac
e
ProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
DISCIPLE RKF/COG
Vision on the evolution of computer systems
45
General architecture of Disciple-RKFGeneral architecture of Disciple-RKF
InstancesSolvingRules
Teaching, Learningand Problem Solving
Intelligent User Interface
Autonomous ProblemSolving
Modeling
Knowledge Base Management
OntologyImport
Ontology
InstancesSolvingProblem
Rules
Mixed_Initiative Problem Solving
NaturalLanguage
Generation
OntologyEditors andBrowsers
RuleLearning
RuleRefinement
ScenarioElicitation
TaskLearning
46
Knowledge base: Object ontology + reasoning rules
A hierarchical representation of the types of objects from the COG domain.
<object>
Scenario Strategic_COG_relevant_factor
Established_governing_body
Resource_or_ infrastructure_element
Psychosocial_factor
Geographic_factor
Historic_factor
Military_factor
Political_factor Other_relevant_factor
Civilization_factor
War_scenario
Ad_hoc_governing_body
Other_type_of_governing_body
Demographic_factor
Agent Force_goal
International_factor
Other_political_factor
Controlling_element
Group_governing_body
Governing_body
State_government
Economic_factor
Operation_other_than_war
A hierarchical representation of the types of features of the
objects from the COG domain.
has_as_controlling_leaderDomain: agentRange: person
has_as_religious_leaderDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_military_leaderDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_god_kingDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_monarchDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_political_leaderDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_head_of_stateDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_head_of_governmentDomain: governing_bodyRange: person
has_as_commander_in_chiefDomain: forceRange: person
Object ontology
47
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 is will_of_the_people_of_US_1943?O2 is US_1943
has_as_people ?O6 has_as_governing_body ?O5
?O3 is European_Axis_1943?O4 is Dominance_of_Europe_by_European_Axis?O5 is government_of_US_1943
has_as_will ?O7?O6 is people_of_US_1945 has_as_will ?O1?O7 is will_of_the_government_of_US_1943
reflects ?O1
IF: Test whether the will of the people can make a state accept the strategic goal of an opposing forceThe will of the people is ?O1The state is ?O2The opposing force is ?O3The goal is ?O4
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 is will_of_agent?O2 is force
has_as_people ?O6 has_as_governing_body ?O5
?O3 is (strategic_COG_relevant_factor agent)?O4 is force_goal?O5 is representative_democracy
has_as_will ?O7?O6 is people
has_as_will ?O1?O7 is will_of_agent
reflects ?O1
THEN: Test whether the will of the people, that controls the government, can make a state accept the strategic goal of an opposing force
The will of the people is ?O1The government is ?O5The state is ?O2The opposing force is ?O3The goal is ?O4
Task reduction rule
48
Initial modeling
Ontology specification
Ontology import
Ontology development
Initialobject
ontology
Force
<object>
Scenario
Strategic_goal
Force_goal
Strategic_COG_relevant_factor
Demographic_factor
International_factor
Psychosocial_factorEconomic_factor
Geographical_factor
Historical_factor
Military_factor
Political_factor
Other_relevant_factor
Operational_goal
Civilization_factor
resource_ or_ infrastructure_element
Problemspecification
Modeling the problem solving process of the subject matter
expert and development of the object ontology of the agent.
Scenarios(elicited)
Generalrules
(learned)has_as_pr im ary_
force_elem ent
ha s asoppo sing
force
Sic ily_1943
“W W II Allied invasiono f Sicily in 1943”
brief_descr iption
Anglo_allies_1943
US_19 43
Brita in_194 3
com ponent_state
compone nt_state
Allied_forces_operation_Husky
type_of_opera tions
has_as_subg roup
US_7 th _Ar my_(Fo rce_ 343)
“combined and joint operations”
has_a s_subgroup
Br_ 8th_A rm y_(Force_545)
has_as_subgroupWe stern_Naval_TFhas_as_subgro up
Eastern_N aval_TFhas_as_subgroup
US_9 th_Air_Fo rcehas_a s_subgroup
Northwest_A frica_A ir_Fo rce
instance_of
instance_of
instance_ofinstance_of
instance_ of
insta nce_of
instance_of
instance_of
instance_of
insta nce_of
insta nce_of
insta nce_of
ha s_as_ industrial_factor
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
IF the task isIdentify the strategic COG candidates with respect to theindustrial civilization of a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1
THENConclude that an economic factor is a strategic COGcandidate for a state which is a member of a force
The state is ?O2The force is ?O1The economic factor is ?O3
Plausible Upper Bound Condition?O1 IS Force?O2 IS Force
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_factor
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS Strategically_essential_goods_o_materiel
Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 IS Anglo_allies_1943?O2 IS US_1943
has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 IS Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
explanation?O2 has_as_industrial_factor ?O3?O3 is_a_major_generator_of ?O4?O4 IS strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
Force
<object>
Scenario
Strategic_goal
Force_goal
Strategic_COG_relevant_factor
Demographic_factor
International_factor
Psychosocial_factorEconomic_factor
Geographical_factor
Historical_factor
Military_factor
Political_factor
Other_relevant_factor
Operational_goal
Civilization_factor
resource_ or_ infrastructure_element
Scenario specification
Modeling
Task and rule learning
Task, rule, ontology refinement
Problem solving
Objectontology(refined)
Teaching of the agent by the subject
matter expert.
The developed Disciple approach
49
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
50
Application domain
The center of gravity of an entity (state, alliance, coalition, or group) is the foundation of capability, the hub of all power and movement, upon which everything depends, the point against which all the energies should be directed.
Carl Von Clausewitz, “On War,” 1832.
If a combatant eliminates or influences the enemy’s strategic center of gravity, then the enemy will lose control of its power and resources and will eventually fall to defeat. If the combatant fails to adequately protect his own strategic center of gravity, he invites disaster.
Identification of strategic Center of Gravity candidates in war scenarios
51
Modeling the identification of center of gravity candidatesModeling the identification of center of gravity candidates
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for the Sicily_1943 scenario
Sicily_1943 is a war scenario
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
What kind of scenario is Sicily_1943?
I need to
Therefore I need to
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943 scenario?
Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for Allied_Forces_1943
European_Axis_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for European_Axis_1943
Therefore I need to
…
Is Allied_Forces_1943 a single-member force or a multi-member force?
Allied_Forces_1943 is a multi-member force
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for Allied_Forces_1943 which is a multi-member force
Therefore I need to
…
52
I need to
Test whether the will of the people of US_1943 can make US_1943 accept the strategic goal of European_Axis_1943 which is ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’
What is the strategic goal of European_Axis_1943?
‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’
Therefore I need to
Test the will of the people of US_1943 which is a strategic COG candidate with respect to the people of US_1943
Let us assume that the people of US_1943 would accept ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’. Could the people of US_1943 make the government of US_1943 accept ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’?
Yes, because US_1943 is a representative democracy and the government of US_1943 reflects the will of the people of US_1943
Therefore I need to
Let us assume that the people of US_1943 would accept ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’. Could the people of US_1943 make the military of US_1943 accept ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’?
Yes, because US_1943 is a representative democracy and the will of the military of US_1943 reflects the will of the people of US_1943
Therefore conclude that
The will of the people of US_1943 is a strategic COG candidate that cannot be eliminated
Test whether the will of the people of US_1943 that controls the government of US_1943 can make US_1943 accept the strategic goal of European_Axis_1943 which is ‘Dominance of Europe by European Axis’
…
53
Modeling advisor: helping the expert to express his reasoningModeling advisor: helping the expert to express his reasoning
54
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
55
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the ?O1
QuestionWhich is a member of ?O1 ?Answer?O2
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for ?O2
Natural Language Logic
Rulelearning
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is ?O1
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is ?O2
Plausible Upper Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_member_force
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition ?O1 is equal_partners_multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is single_state_force
explanation?O1 has_as_member ?O2
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the Allied_Forces_1943
US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for US_1943
Which is a member of Allied_Forces_1943?
I need to
Therefore I need to
INFORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE RULE
FORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE RULE
56
1. Formalize the tasks1. Formalize the tasks
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for US_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is US_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is Allied_Forces_1943
57
Task formalization interfaceTask formalization interface
58
2. Find an explanation of why the example is correct 2. Find an explanation of why the example is correct
US_1943has_as_member
Allied_Forces_1943
The explanation is the best possible approximation of the question and the answer, in the object ontology.
US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for US_1943
Which is a member of Allied_Forces_1943?
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the Allied_Forces_1943
59
Explanation generation and selection interfaceExplanation generation and selection interface
60
3. Generate the plausible version space rule3. Generate the plausible version space rule
Condition?O1 is Allied_Forces_1943
has_as_member ?O2?O2 is US_1943
Most general generalization
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is ?O1
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is ?O2
Plausible Upper Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_member_force
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition ?O1 is equal_partners_multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is single_state_force
explanation?O1 has_as_member ?O2
Most specific generalization
US_1943has_as_member
Allied_Forces_1943
Rewriteas
Which is the justification for these generalizations?
61
Analogical reasoningAnalogical reasoning
similar exampleexplains?
similar
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force The force is Germany_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force The force is European_Axis_1943
initial example
explanation
explains
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force The force is US_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force The force is Allied_Forces_1943
US_1943has_as_memberAllied_Forces_1943
similar explanation
less general than
Analogycriterion
less general than
?O2has_as_member?O1
forcemulti_member_force
instance_ofinstance_of
Germany_1943has_as_memberEuropean_Axis_1943
similar
62
Generalization by analogyGeneralization by analogy
Any value of ?O1 should be an instance of: DOMAIN(has_as_member) RANGE(The force is) =
multi_member_force force = multi_member_forceAny value of ?O2 should be an instance of: RANGE(has_as_member) RANGE(The force is) = force force = force
Knowledge-base constraints on the generalization:
initial example
explains
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force The force is US_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force The force is Allied_Forces_1943
US_1943has_as_memberAllied_Forces_1943
generalization explains
?O2has_as_member?O1
forcemulti_member_force
instance_ofinstance_of
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force The force is ?O2
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force The force is ?O1
63
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
64
Control of modeling, learning and solvingControl of modeling, learning and solving
Input Task
Generated Reduction
Mixed-Initiative Problem Solving
Ontology + Rules
Reject ReductionAccept ReductionNew Reduction
Rule Refinement
Task RefinementRule Refinement
Modeling
Formalization
Learning
Solution
65
US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for US_1943
Which is a member of Allied_Forces_1943?
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the Allied_Forces_1943
Provides an example
1
Rule_15Learns
2
Rule_15
?
Applies
Germany_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for Germany_1943
Which is a member of European_Axis_1943?
Therefore I need to
3
Accepts the example
4Rule_15Refines
5I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the European_Axis_1943
…
66
Rule refinement with a positive exampleRule refinement with a positive example
Condition satisfiedby positive example
?O1 is European_Axis_1943 has_as_member ?O3
?O2 is Germany_1943le
ss g
ener
al t
han
Positive example thatsatisfies the upper bound
explanationEuropean_Axis_1943 has_as_member Germany_1943
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is ?O1
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is ?O2
Plausible Upper Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_member_force
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition ?O1 is equal_partners_multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is single_state_force
explanation?O1 has_as_member ?O2 Identify and test a strategic COG
candidate for Germany_1943
I need to
Therefore I need to
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of the European_Axis_1943
67
Condition satisfied by the positive example
?O1 is European_Axis_1943 has_as_member ?O2
?O2 is Germany_1943
Plausible Upper Bound Condition
?O1 is multi_member_force has_as_member ?O2
?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition (from rule)
?O1 is equal_partners_multi_state_alliance has_as_member ?O2
?O2 is single_state_force
Minimal generalization of the plausible lower boundMinimal generalization of the plausible lower bound
minimal generalization
less general than (or at most as general as)
New Plausible Lower Bound Condition?O1 is multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2
?O2 is single_state_force
68
single_state_force single_group_force multi_state_force multi_group_force
multi_state_alliance multi_state_coalition
equal_partners_multi_state_alliance
dominant_partner_multi_state_alliance
equal_partners_multi_state_coalition
dominant_partner_multi_state_coalition
composition_of_forces
multi_member_forcesingle_member_force
Forces hierarchyForces hierarchy
Allied_Forces_1943
European_Axis_1943
force
…
Germany_1943US_1943
multi_state_alliance is the minimal generalization of equals_partners_multi_state_alliance that covers European_Axis_1943
69
Refined ruleRefined rule
less
gen
eral
th
an
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is ?O1
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is ?O2
Plausible Upper Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_member_force
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition ?O1 is equal_partners_multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is single_state_force
explanation?O1 has_as_member ?O2
IFIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate corresponding to a member of a force
The force is ?O1
THENIdentify and test a strategic COG candidate for a force
The force is ?O2
Plausible Upper Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_member_force
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is force
Plausible Lower Bound Condition ?O1 is multi_state_alliance
has_as_member ?O2 ?O2 is single_state_force
explanation?O1 has_as_member ?O2
70
Which are some learning strategies used by Disciple?Which are some learning strategies used by Disciple?
Example ofproblem solving
episode
PVS Rule
analogy
exactcondition
PLB
PUB
Knowledge Base
Incompleteexplanation
Rule learning
Knowledge Base
Failureexplanation
PVSRule
Example solutionsgenerated by the agent
Incorrectexample
Correctexample
Rule refinement
71
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
72
Students use Disciple as an intelligent assistant that supports them to develop a Center of Gravity analysis report for a war scenario.
319jw Case Studies in Center of Gravity Analysis (COG), Term II and Term III
Students act as subject matter experts thatteach personal Disciple agents their own reasoning in Center of Gravity analysis.
589 Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence (MAAI) ,Term III
Students develop
inputscenarios
Studentsdevelopagents
Use of Disciple in Army War College courses
Inte
rfac
e
ProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
DISCIPLE RKF/COG
73
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
StronglyDisagree
Disagree Neutral A gree StronglyA gree
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
StronglyDisagree
Disagree Neutral A gree StronglyA gree
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
StronglyDisagree
Disagree Neutral A gree StronglyA gree
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
StronglyDisagree
Disagree Neutral A gree StronglyA gree
The use of Disciple is an assignment
that is well suited to the course's
learning objectives
The use of Disciple wasa useful learning
experience
Disciple helped me to learn to perform
a strategic center of gravity analysis of a
scenario
Disciple should be used in
future versions of this course
COG Winter 2002: Expert assessments
74
I think that a subject matter expert can use Disciple to build an agent, with limited assistance from a knowledge engineer
589 MAAI Spring 2002: SME assessment589 MAAI Spring 2002: SME assessment
0123456789
StronglyDisagree
Disagree Neutral Agree StronglyAgree
75
Instructable agents: the Disciple approachInstructable agents: the Disciple approach
Modeling expert’s reasoning
Rule learning
Introduction
Application and evaluation
Multi-agent problem solving and learning
Integrated modeling, learning, solving
76
Modeling, problem solving, and learning as collaborative agentsModeling, problem solving, and learning as collaborative agents
Reasoning tree similar with the current model
Learning
Modeling
Problem Solving
Mixed
Initiative
New situations that need to be modeled
New positive and negative examples for rule refinement
Analysis of the instantiations for a rule
Partially learned rules with informal and formal descriptions
Rules similar with the current example
Informal description of the reasoning
New correct examples for learning
ExampleAnalyzer
ExampleComposer
Rule Analyzer
Explanation Generator
Rule Analogy Engine
Solution Analyzer
Reasoning Tree Analyzer
Mixed-Initiative PS
77
Question-answering based task reduction
S1
S11a
S1n
S11b1 S11bm
T11bmT11b1
T1nT11a
…
…
T1
Q1
S11bT11b
A1n S11A11
……
A11b1 A11bm
S11bQ11b
Let T1 be the problem solving task to be performed.
Finding a solution is an iterative process where, at each step, we consider some relevant information that leads us to reduce the current task to a simpler task or to several simpler tasks.
The question Q associated with the current task identifies the type of information to be considered.
The answer A identifies that piece of information and leads us to the reduction of the current task.
A complex problem solving task is performed by:
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks;
• finding the solutionsof the simplest tasks;
• successively composing these solutions until the solution to the initial task is obtained.
78
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Ta
sk R
ed
uc
tion
Conclude that there are indicators of the presence of weapons (plastic explosives, firearms) at Location-A but …
Conclude that there are strong indicators that
Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location_A?
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Intelligence Analysis
79
EXPERT
PERSONALIZED LEARNING ASSISTANT
Local Shared KB
PERSONALIZEDLEARNINGASSISTANT
Expert’s Model
External-Expertise
Agent
Information-Interaction
Agent
AwarenessAgent
SupportAgent
SupportAgent
SupportAgent
Ontology
Rules
Global Grid Computing and Communications Infrastructure
JBI Platform – minimal set of standards and services
++ + +
KB
KB KB
KB
KB
Global KB
EXPERT
A possible multi-agent architecture for Disciple
80
BibliographyBibliography
Mitchell T.M., Machine Learning, McGraw Hill, 1997.
Shavlik J.W. and Dietterich T. (Eds.), Readings in Machine Learning, Morgan Kaufmann, 1990.
Buchanan B., Wilkins D. (Eds.), Readings in Knowledge Acquisition and Learning: Automating the Construction and the Improvement of Programs, Morgan Kaufmann, 1992.
Langley P., Elements of Machine Learning, Morgan Kaufmann, 1996.
Michalski R.S., Carbonell J.G., Mitchell T.M. (Eds), Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach, Morgan Kaufmann, 1983 (Vol. 1), 1986 (Vol. 2).
Kodratoff Y. and Michalski R.S. (Eds.) Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach (Vol. 3), Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc., 1990.
Michalski R.S. and Tecuci G. (Eds.), Machine Learning: A Multistrategy Approach (Vol. 4), Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Mateo, CA, 1994.
Tecuci G. and Kodratoff Y. (Eds.), Machine Learning and Knowledge Acquisition: Integrated Approaches, Academic Press, 1995.
Tecuci G., Building Intelligent Agents: An Apprenticeship Multistrategy Learning Theory, Methodology, Tool and Case Studies, Academic Press, 1998.