LEARNING FOR A NONLINEAR WORLD:Cultivating a Prospective Mind

21ST Century Learning Leadership Forum

October 13 2011Banff, Alberta

Thomas Homer-DixonBalsillie School of International Affairs

Waterloo Institute for Complexity and InnovationWaterloo, Ontario

We live in a world in which key systems are under rising

STRESS

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.

Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

Partly because of this rising stress, we also now live in a

world of constant

SURPRISE

“Nobody understands who owes what towhom—or whether they have the ability topay. Counterparties have become afraid totrade with each other. . . . The crisiscontinues because nobody knows whatanything is worth. You simply cannot have afunctioning market under suchcircumstances.”

Joe Nocera, The New York Times, September 20, 2008

Increasing systemic stressand more frequent surprises

are due to

RISING HUMAN USE OF NATURAL SYSTEMS

GREATER COMPLEXITY OF SOCIAL,TECHNOLOGICAL, AND HUMAN-

ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of

MACHINES

to seeing it as composed mainly of

COMPLEX SYSTEMS

MACHINES• show proportionality of cause and effect,• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of

behavior, and• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully

understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)

• so they can be managed, because their behavior predictable.

COMPLEX SYTEMS• show disproportionality of cause and effect

(their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies),

• can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums), and

• are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties)

• so they CANNOT be easily managed, because their behavior is often unpredictable.

What is causing ourour economies and societiesto become more complex?

Performance improvements at the levelof system units, i.e., organizations,

people, and technologies,

especially advances in information technology

Result: Our networks have more nodes, denser links, and faster movement of material, energy,

and information along these links

Rising social, economic,and technological complexity

can be a good or bad thing

Opaqueness and uncertainty

System flips and extreme events (including cascading failures)

Cognitive and managerial overload

and

Brittleness

Complexity sometimes causes

In this newworld of constant surprise

and soaring complexity,what should we do?

1. BUILD RESILIENCE

Resilient people, institutionsand societies can withstand

shock without catastrophic failure,

have the capacity for self-reliance,

and are creative in response to novelchallenges.

2. CULTIVATE A PROSPECTIVE MINDA prospective mind is open to reason and evidence,

has a “street sense” for science,

remains flexible in response to constant change(so isn’t surprised by surprise),

is curious about new ideas and facts

learns from failed experiments, and

sees opportunity in crisis.

FOUR CONCEPTUAL SHIFTSneeded for a Prospective Mind

• Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX

• Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVER

• Knowledge: From SPECIALIZED to INTEGRATED

• Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and EXISTENTIAL

Three Categories of Value

Simple preferences (utilities)

Moral values (oughts)

Existential/spiritual values