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Lecture 1
The need for spatially and socially explicit analysis of China’s agricultural development
M.A. Keyzer
Presentation available:www.sow.vu.nl/downloadables.htm
www.ccap.org.cn
Hunger & food consumption
Food Supply, 1960-2000, China and World
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
China World
kc
al/c
ap
/da
y
1961/63
1979/81
1999/01
Prevalence of UndernourishmentChina and Developing Countries, 1980-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China Developing World
%
1979/81
1990/92
1998/00
Issues
Can China feeds its animals: Selfsufficiency in cereals, protein feeds and
meat Import of feed Import of meat
China and world trade How will WTO effect the agricultural economy
Major infrastructural works Assess the implications on redirecting water
flows
Chinese specificity
China is not Singapore or Luxembourg
The scale of China and the extensive set of features must be accounted for
The spatial and social diversity to appear in the structure of the model, not only in numbers on population and
surface
Overview of lectures
1. The need for spatially and socially explicit analysis of China’s agricultural development
2. Theoretical background on aggregation: Micro – macro debates
3. Towards a spatially disaggregated AGE-model for the analysis of Chinese agricultural policy
Maps
Information in large databases
Visualization in maps of variables but only one at the time
This obscures underlying relations with other variables
Use flexible forms (parametric and non-parametric) to investigate patterns and anomalies
From maps to models
Incorporate all a priori knowledge of present situation potentials for change
This defines approach in four ways:1. agricultural potentials2. physical balances at farm level3. transport flows between markets4. welfare approach to agricultural policy
Systematic data analysis & preparation is required
Central issue: rise of meat demand
Three mechanisms at play:
1. Meat demand depends on income consumer demand is shifting towards meat and dairy
2. Relation income - meat demand is not linear
large part of the population may still be at low levels of meat consumption: fast growth in medium term: fast growth in medium term: fast growth in medium term
3. Additional feed supply has to come from cereal production or imports
Traditional technologies are not sufficient
From meat demand to feed demand
Three general types of livestock systems grazing systems mixed production systems intensive production system
Within intensive system Backyard production largely relying on
household and crop residuals Specialized households Large commercial units
How does composition of animal systems change in response to increased meat demand ?
How does cereal share in feed change in response to increased meat demand?
GLS-Estimation of meat demand function
b2=8.07(62.64)
Per-capita Consumption
77 kg
17 kg
9,700 US-$2,200 US-$
b3=0.98(29.7)
b1=3.25(10.85) Dummies:
China 7.32 (5.31)India -9.56 (-7.34)USA 23.81 (6.04)Japan -50.37 (-13.29)
(125 countries, 1975-1997)
Meat demand: (data and FAO projections)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80East Asia
South Asia
Per-caput meat consumption
Projections of feed demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2020 2030
mill
ion
mt
cere
als
Constant ratio cereals/residualsresiduals on trendgrazing and residuals on trend
Key trends on meat and feed: findings
The magnitude of effects on cereal markets is dramatic:
Meat demand/technology shift: up to +1,800 mill. t. in 2030
Climate Change (IIASA, 2001): - 105 mill. t. in 2080
GMOs: no large effects on yields expected
Price changes necessary to restore balance between supply and demand of meat: + 96% in 2030 worldwide, 119% in 2039 for Asia
Besides demand pressure
Rural to urban migration Traditional livestock systems becomes more
marginal More import ?
Locational (spatial) aspect of intensive livestock industry
Vegetal proteins as byproduct of industrial processes
Environmental pressures emissions of methane and ammonia