Lecture 14Fuel Cell Lectures

8/11/2019 Lecture 14Fuel Cell Lectures

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Global Warming

Will Human-Induced ClimateChange Destroy the World?


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Introduction

Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to

blame for earths temperatureincreases?

What can/should be done about theseissues?

Are the potential resolutions worth thecost to implement them?


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History of Earths Climate Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of

present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years

ago (zircon dating) Much of earths early history erased

during late heavy bombardment (~3.9billion years ago)


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History of Earths Climate Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion

years agoProduced oxygen and removed carbondioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)Earth went through periods of cooling(Snowball Earth) and warming

Earth began cycles of glacial andinterglacial periods ~3 million yearsago


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Sun

Earths Temperature

Solar

Energy

Solar

Energy


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Sun

Earths Temperature

Solar

Energy

RadiativeCooling


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Sun

Earths Temperature

Solar

nergyRadiativeCooling


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Sun

Earths Temperature

Solar

EnergyRadiativeCooling


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Greenhouse EffectSun


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Earths Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N 2)

Oxygen (O 2)

Water (H 2O)

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2)

>99%

Methane (CH4)


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Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect

97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric

acid clouds Temperature:

860F

Venus


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Carbon Dioxide


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170

220

270

320

370

420

200000400000600000 Time YBP

C O

2 ( p p m

)

Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia

Carbon Dioxide Levels

0

Muana Loa Readings

CO 2 Levels Since 1958

310

330350370

10203040 C O

2 ( p p m

)

0


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Worldwide Carbon Emissions

C a r

b o n

( 1 0 9

m e t r i c

t o n s )

0

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

Liquid fuelTotal

Gas fuelSolid fuel


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Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

Increasing CO 2 emissions, especially inChina and developing countries

Likely to double within 150 years:Increased coal usageIncreased natural gas usageDecreased petroleum usage (increasedcost and decreasing supply)


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Kyoto Protocol

Adopted in 1997 Cut CO 2 emissions by 5% from 1990

levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not

significantly impact global warming


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Past Temperatures


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-0.6

-0.4-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.60.8

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

M e a n

T e m p e r a

t u r e

( C )

Recorded WorldwideTemperatures

Flat

Decreasing

Flat


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Winter Temperatures

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Summer Temperatures

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Annual Temperatures

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

T e m p e r a

t u r e

( C )

Historic Los AngelesTemperatures


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2009 Temperature ChangesCompared to 1951-1980

-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980


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Past Temperatures Measurement

Proxy a method that approximates aparticular measurement (e.g.,temperature)

Tree ringsIce coresPollen recordsPlant macrofossilsSr/Ca isotope dataOxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite(stalactites and stalagmites)


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Temperature History of the Earth

Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C

warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North

Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline

circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline

circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as alarge lake in Canada flooded the NorthAtlantic


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For the past 3 million years, the earthhas been experiencing ~100,000 yearlong cycles of glaciation followed by~10,000 year long interglacial periods

These climate periods are largely theresult of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity


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Orbital Parameters: Precession

PerihelionApehelion


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Orbital Parameters: Obliquity22.5 24 .5


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Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

PerihelionApehelionApehelion

Minimum: 0.005

Maximum: 0.061

Not to scale!To Scale!


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Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate

Age (kya)1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Eccentricity(100 ky)

Temperature

Obliquity(41 ky)

Precession(22 ky)


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For the past 3 million years, the earthhas been experiencing ~100,000 yearlong cycles of glaciation followed by~10,000 year long interglacial periods

Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 yearsago, but was interrupted by theYounger Dryas event 12,900 yearsago


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YoungerDryas

Younger Dryas Event

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

05101520Age (kya)

T e m p e r a t u r e

( C )

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

S n o w

A c c u m u l a t

i o n

( m / y r )

Little Ice AgeIce Age

Medieval Warm


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Younger Dryas Event

-44-43-42-41-40-39-38

-37-36-35

-34

1 8 O ( G r e e n

l a n

d )

-8.0

-7.5

-7.0

-6.5

-6.0

-5.5

-5.0-4.5

-4.010111213141516

1 8 O ( C h i n a )

YoungerDryas

A e k a


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Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2C higher than today.

20C higher at high latitudes1C higher at the Equator

Sea levels were 100 ft higher

CausesCO 2 levels that were 100 ppm higherIncreased thermohaline circulation


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Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage

(between South America andAntarctica).

Increased ocean current exchangeStrong global coolingFirst permanent glaciation of Antarctica~34 million years ago


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Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C

CausesIncreased volcanismRapid release of methane from the oceans


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Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer

Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes

Different ocean currents (continentalarrangement)higher CO 2 levels (at least 2 to 4 timeshigher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

A C il ti f Ph i


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Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

030

60

90

A t m o s p h

e r i c

C O 2

C o n

c e n

t r a t i o n

( p p mV

)

C o n

t i n e n

t a l

G l a

c i a

t i o n

( P a l e

o l a

t i t u d e )

400 300 200 100 0

Paleozoic Mesozoic CenozoicS D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng

A Compilation of PhanerozoicAtmospheric CO 2 Records


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Hockey Stick Controversy

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8

Year

-0.6

-0.4

-0.20

0.2

0.40.6


C h a n g e

( C )

Direct temperature measurementsMann et al. 1999


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The Problem with Tree Rings

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.6

Year

-0.5-0.4

-0.3

00.10.20.3


C h a n g e

( C )

-0.2-0.1

Jones et al. 1998Briffa et al. 1999Mann et al. 1999


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What Influences Tree Rings?

Temperature Rainfall

Carbon dioxide concentration


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Mann et al. 1999Esper et al. 2002

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800-2

-1

0

1

2


C h a n g e

( C )

2000

Year

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?


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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year


C h

a n g e

( C )

Mann et al. 1999

Esper et al. 2002Moberg et al. 2005Mann et al. 2008

Medieval Warm Period


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U.S. National Academy ofSciences: June 2006

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8

Year

-0.6

-0.4

-0.20

0.2

0.40.6


C h a n g e

( C )

high level of confidence 2:1 chance of being right


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-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1980 1990 2000 Year

-0.6

-0.4-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1980 1990 2000 Year

T e m p e r a

t u r e

C g a n g e

( C )

Atmospheric Temperatures

Troposphere Stratosphere


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170

220

270

320

370

0200000400000600000Time (YBP)

C O 2 ( p p m

) A n

t a r c

t i c a

252627

282930

31

S S T ( C ) T r o p

i c a l

P a c i

f i c

CO 2 Concentration Vs. Temperature


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Consequences of

Global Warming


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Global Warming Primarily Impactsthe Northern Hemisphere

-0.6-0.4-0.2

0.0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1.0

1920 1960 2000Year

T e m p e r a

t u r e

C h a n g e

( C )

1920 1960 2000Year

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean

Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

LandOcean


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Ice Sheets Melting? GRACE (gravity measured by satellite)

found melting of Antarctica equivalentto sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2

in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar

altimetry)

confirmed Antarctica meltingGreenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)


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Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro


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1000

800

600

400

200

0

-200-400

-6002003 2004 2005

I c e

M a s s

( k m

3 )

Year

Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass


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Rise in Sea Levels?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4in/century)

Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006mm/yr 2

If acceleration continues, could resultin 12 in/century sea level rise

Scenarios claiming 1 meter or morerise are unrealistic


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Changing Sea Levels

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-20

-10

0

10

20

R e l a

t i v e

S e a

L e v e l

( c m )

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland

Gl o b

al T em

p er a

t ur e

C h an

g e


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Time (KYBP)

S e a

L e v e

l ( m

)

20

0

-20

-40-60

-80

-100

-120

Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 025

26

27

28

29

30

31

S S T ( C ) T r o p i c a

l P a c

i f i c


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Increase in Hurricanes?

Two studies showed the total n u m b e r of hurricanes has not changed

However, the in tens i ty of hurricaneshas increased (more category 4 and 5hurricanes and cyclones)

Probably due to higher sea surfacetemperatures (more energy)

Difficult to know if this trend willcontinue

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200

5

10

15

Data Unreliable

Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface TemperatureAdjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index

S S T / S

P D I ( m e t e r s 3

/ s e c

2 )

H M h T


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How Much TemperatureIncrease?

Some models propose up to 9 Cincrease this century

Two studies put the minimum at 1.5 Cand maximum at 4.5 C or 6.2 C

Another study puts the minimum at2.5 C


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Effect on Humans

Fewer deaths from cold, more fromheat

Decreased thermohaline circulationCooler temperatures in North Atlantic

CO 2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes

Droughts and famine (some areas)Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

P t ti l W ld id P i it ti


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Potential Worldwide PrecipitationChanges

-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50


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Drought in Africa

Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

C t t St bili CO


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Cost to Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations

450 550 650 750

18001600140012001000

800600

400200

0

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

C o s t

( T r i

l l o n s

U . S

. D o

l l a r s

)


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Possible Solutions to

Global Warming


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S f CO i G l i l F i


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Storage of CO 2 in Geological Formations1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs2. CO

2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery

3. Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore4. CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

3a 2

3b 14


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Global Warming Has Stopped?

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

M e a n


( C )

1365.2

1365.41365.6

1365.8

1366.0

1366.2

1366.4

1366.6

1366.8

S o l a r

I r r a

d i a n c e

( W / m 2 )

2010

Volcanoes Put Out More CO


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Volcanoes Put Out More CO 2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning

0

2

4

6

8

10

C a r

b o n

( 1 0 9

m e t r i c t o n s

)

Fossil FuelVolcanoes

Global Warming is Caused by


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Global Warming is Caused bySunspots

-0.6

-0.4-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

M e a n


( C )

0

50

100

150

200

250

S u n s p o t s

Hadley Temperatures Vs


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Hadley Temperatures Vs.Sunspots

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

1.0

1.5

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

M e a n


( C )

0

50

100

150

200

250

S u n s p o t s

Global Warming is Caused by


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Global Warming is Caused byGCR

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

M e a n


( C )

3000

32003400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

G a m m a

C o s m

i c R a y s

CO Vs Sea Level

CO Vs Temperature


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CO 2 Vs. Sea LevelCO 2 Vs. Temperature

0100000200000300000400000500000

Time (ybp)

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

R e

l a t i v e

S e a

L e v e

l

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

C O

2 ( p p m

v )

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

T e m p e r a

t u r e

Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.

Global Warming is Due to Urban


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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

Global Warming is Due to UrbanHeat Islands

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980


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Global Warming Primarily Impacts


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Global Warming Primarily Impactsthe Northern Hemisphere

-0.6-0.4

-0.20.0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1.0

1920 1960 2000Year

T e m p e r a

t u r e

C h a

n g e

( C )

Northern vs. Southern Latitude

Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

1920 1960 2000Year

Land vs. Ocean

LandOcean


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Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft? Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4

in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr 2

If acceleration continues, could result in 12in/century sea level rise

Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise areunrealistic

Recently, the California State LandsCommission said that sea levels could rise55 inches this century, inundating ports


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Changing Sea Levels

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-20

-10

0

10

20

R e l a

t i v e

S e a L e v e l

( c m )

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland

Gl o b

al T em

p er a

t ur e

C h an

g e

How Much Temperature


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How Much TemperatureIncrease?

Global warming alarmists propose upto 9 C increase this century

Two studies put the minimum at 1.5 Cand maximum at 4.5 C or 6.2 C

Another study puts the minimum at2.5 C

Predictions Vs Reality


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Predictions Vs. Reality

T ( C )

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

-0.4

Date1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019

Annual Mean Global Temperature Change

OBSERVEDSCENARIO ASCENARIO BSCENARIO C

Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.

Exponential Increase in carbon emissions

Moderate reduction in carbon emissions

Drastic reduction in carbon emissions

Observed temps through 1988

Temperature Extrapolation


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Temperature Extrapolation

T ( C )1.5

1.0

0.5

0

-0.4

Date1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

2.5

2.0

1960


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Conclusions

Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of

human activities There will be positive and negative

(mostly) repercussions from globalwarming

The costs to mitigate global warmingwill be high better spent elsewhere?

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Lecture 14Fuel Cell Lectures