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8/13/2019 Lecture 2 Climate Change
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Climate Change
8/13/2019 Lecture 2 Climate Change
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Commonwealth of Australia
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Warning
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behalf of Swinburne University of Technology under Part VB of the
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8/13/2019 Lecture 2 Climate Change
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Climate ChangeAtmospheric science
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Climate ChangeAtmospheric science
Why are we concerned with such a trace atmospheric gas?
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Climate ChangeAtmospheric science
What else are wechanging?Many other green
house gassese.g., methane,CFCs, ozone
Albedo (reflectivity of
Earths surface)
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What are greenhouse gasses? Let sunlight in (transparentto shortwave radiation)
Earth heats up and radiatesheat (longwave radiation) GHGs are opaque to longwaveradiation (trap it and send it back to Earth)
GHGs are essential to life on EarthEarth average temperature with current CO2levels= 14oC and without would be -18oC
Venus (the most similar planet to Earth) has anatmosphere of 96.5% CO2and averagetemperatures of 449oC
Climate ChangeAtmospheric science
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Global Warming Potential (GWP)Relative impact to cause global warming compared to CO2
Measuring UnitGreenhouse gasses (other than CO2) are measured as CO2 e(Carbon-dioxide equivalent)
Cumulative effects of all greenhouse gasses can then besummed up and presented in terms of total CO2e
Climate ChangeAtmospheric science
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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(Solar + volcanic)
All forcings (Solar + Volcanic + Human induced)
Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
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Climate ChangeEvidence
Past Inter-glacials1C 2C warmer
Sea ~ 5 10 m higher
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Climate ChangeEvidence
Miocene:3C 6C warmer
Sea ~ 20 40 mhigher
Eocene:5C 8C warmerSea ~ 100 m higher
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Climate ChangeEvidence
Hothouse Earth
Snowball Earth
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Climate ChangePredictions
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Climate ChangePredictions
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The Earths temperature has warmed by ~0.6oC during the
20thcentury
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
projected:Over the next century average global temperature will rise by1.4oto 5.8oC
Combined effects of ice melting and water expansion due to
ocean warming will cause global sea-level rise of 0.1 m to 0.9 mby 2100
Increased storm intensity and drought with major impacts onagricultural production
Climate ChangePredictions
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Climate ChangePredictions
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Climate ChangeCauses
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Climate ChangeCauses
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Climate ChangeDebates?
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Climate ChangeDebates?
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Climate ChangeDebates?
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Climate ChangeDebates?
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Climate ChangeDebates?
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Climate ChangeImplications
A range of impacts onhuman health, aggravatedby problems of water supply,
malnutrition and hunger inmany parts of the world
Massive increase in speciesextinction rates
Increase occurrences ofshort term extremebehaviours such asHurricanes, Floods and
Typhoons
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Climate ChangeImplications
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Temp.
rise
Tourism Water and
Agriculture
Infrastructure and
Energy
< 10C Snow covered area
shrinks by 10~40%
Wet tropics lose
half of their habitat
70% more frequent
drought in NSW
Melbournes water
supply falls 3~11%
14% of Victoriasmarine invertebrates
lose habitat
18% more days
above 350C in SA
10~20% more intense
rainfall in NSW
3% decrease inelectricity transmission
efficiency
> 10C 81% of Great
Barrier Reef
bleachedWet tropics lose
90% of their habitat
Melbournes water
supply falls 7~35%
Murray-Darlingflows falls 12~25%
40% loss of
Eucalyptus habitat
100 year flood
affected area in Cairns
wil l be doubledStorm surge rises
25% along Victorias
East Coast
Double the people
exposed to flooding
ImplicationsAustralia
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Temp.
rise
Tourism Water and
Agriculture
Infrastructure and
Energy
> 20C 97% of Great
Barrier Reef
bleached
80% of kakdu
freshwater wetlandslost
Macquarie River
flows fall by 5~35%
Pasture growth
slows by 31%
Livestock carryingcapacity in pasture
system falls by 40%
100 year storm t ides
along Victorias coast
15% more frequent
Tropical cyclone rain
increases 20~30%
Forest fire danger
rises 10% in Australia
> 30C Snow covered area
shrinks by 20~85%
Great Barrier Reefspecies shrink by
95%
65% Reef species
lost in Cairns region
Australian net
primary product ion
falls by 6%Murray-Darling
flows falls 16~48%
55% loss of
Eucalyptus habitat
Temperature related
deaths of people (>65)
rises by 89~123%Dengue fever
transmission zone
reaches to Brisbane
and possibly to Sydney
ImplicationsAustralia
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Temp.
rise
Tourism Water and
Agriculture
Infrastructure and
Energy
> 40C Most Australian
vertebrates lose
90~100% of their
core habitat
Extreme rainfall in
Victoria increases by
25%
Peak electricity
demand in Adelaide,
Brisbane and Melbourne
increases by 9~25%
100 year storm t idesalong Victor ias coast
30% more frequent
>350C in SA and NT for
180 days in a year
ImplicationsAustralia
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Climate ChangeImplications
Natural disasters
Hurricane Katrina
New Orleans (Aug. 2005)
The value of economicdamage was US$125billion
Social consequencesare not countable indollars
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Climate ChangeImplications
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Ice sheet: Covers surrounding terrain > 50,000 km Glacier/Ice Cap: Covers surrounding terrain < 50,000 km Ice Shelf: a thick, floating platform of ice that forms where a
glacier or ice sheet flows down to a coastline/oceansurface (thickness 100~1000 m)
Sea Ice:Formed on water, is much thinner (< typically 3 m) The Greenland ice sheet occupies about 82% of the surface of
Greenland, and if melted would cause sea levels to rise by
7.2 metres
Climate ChangeIce
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_kilometer8/13/2019 Lecture 2 Climate Change
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Climate ChangeIce
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Climate ChangeIce
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Arctic is warming fasteras a result of rapidly
changing albedo
1860 1880
-2.0Differenc
e(C)from1
961-1990mean All land area
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0Arctic (land north of 65N)
Climate ChangeIce
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Arctic Summer Sea Ice Loss Compared to IPCC Models
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Climate ChangeIce
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1992 2005
Greenland satellite melt record
Climate ChangeIce
McCarty Glacier Alaska
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McCarty Glacier, Alaska
Muir and Riggs Glaciers
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Muir and Riggs Glaciers
Patagonia
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1928 2004
Patagonia
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Climate Change
C C
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Observed rate of sea-level rise and estimated contributions from
different sources
Climate ChangeSea level
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Potential sea level rise if lost
Cli t Ch
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Climate ChangeSea level
Cli t Ch
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Climate ChangeSea level
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Cli t Ch
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Climate ChangeSea level
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10 m rise in sea level
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70 m rise in sea level, all ice melting
(without thermal expansion)
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Cli t Ch
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70 m rise in sea level
Climate ChangeSea level
Cli t Ch
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Climate ChangeSea level
70 m rise in sea level
Cli t Ch
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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Cli t Ch
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Source: Financial Times, 4-Mar-09: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cccc2fc-08ee-11de-b8b0-0000779fd2ac.html?ftcamp=rss
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Climate Change
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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Climate Change
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There are three approaches
Change our behaviour
Change the technology
Change the fuel
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Climate Change
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Change our behaviourDeveloped economies live in a consumer-led, energy intensiveand energy wasteful society.Developed world is not a role model for resource efficiency.
Behaviour change can be achieved through:
Awareness (education)
Acknowledgement
Action Which might require:Economic incentives
Taxes
Regulation / legislation
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Climate Change
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Change the TechnologyCO2 sequestration:Aquifer disposalInjection in depleted reservoirsInjection in Oil Recovery ProcessOcean disposalNo evidence this technology will ever work, mostly a red-herringto allow coal to continue to be exploited
Nuclear:Carbon free butNuclear wasteSafety!!!
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Climate Change
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Change the fuelSolarWindGeothermal
TidalHydroelectricBiomassHydrogen fuel cells
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
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Climate Change
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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Survey of experts on the most efficient means of dealing with climate change
Behaviour change
Technology changeFuel change
Behaviour change
Behaviour change
Behaviour change
Technology change
Climate Change
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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Survey of experts on the most efficient means of dealing with climate change
Behaviour change
Technology changeFuel change
Behaviour change
Behaviour change
Behaviour change
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Climate Change
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In 1997, United Nations Convention on Climate Change at Kyoto(Japan) adopted:
An upper limit of CO2in atmosphere to be 450 ppmAustralia committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
108% of 1990 level by 2008-12
Climate ChangeWhat can we do?
Without Carbon tax
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The Carbon Tax
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Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
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On December 2003, the ChicagoClimate Exchange opened for tradingand by July 1, 2004, had traded over 1million tons of CO
2
.
The members have made a voluntary,legally binding commitment to reducetheir emissions of greenhouse gases
by 4% below the average of their1998-2001 baselines by 2006 and afurther 6% by 2010.
A North America based GlobalVoluntary Trading Scheme
Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
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Climate Change
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Climate ChangeWhat can we do?