LECTURE 5: CIVIL CONFLICTS AND WARS Ixiaohuanlan.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/1/3/19133549/lecture_5_civil_w… · Rainfall And Witch Killing In Rural Tanzania, 1992-2002 SOURCE: MIGUEL

LECTURE 5: CIVIL CONFLICTS AND WARS I

复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

Proportion Of Countries With Civil War Or Conflict, 1960 -2006

SOURCE: BLATTMAN AND MIGUEL (2010) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 2

By Year:


Number Of State-based Conflicts, By Type

SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 4

Incidence Of Civil War And GDP Per Capita


Conflicts In 2008 (Dark Area: The Poorest Billion People)


Conflicts And Ethnicity Polarization or Fractionalization: 1960 -2008

SOURCE: ESTEBAN, MAYORAL, AND RAY (2012) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 7

Ethnic Diversity And Civil Wars

SOURCE: MONTALVO AND REYNAL-QUEROL (2005) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 8

Class (income Inequality) or Ethnicity？

“广东人革命，浙江人出钱，湖南人卖命”？

Inequality within an ethnicity group.

The fundamental difficulty of class conflicts (Esteban and Ray, 2008):

poor people do not have resources, and rich people do not have incentives.


近代广东福建的宗族与阶级

SOURCE: 魏斐德（2014）复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 10

Our Focus On Income

Weather shocks

Technology shocks

Price shocks

Foreign aid shocks

Institutional shocks

Group difference plus income shock

More on within-country evidence, instead of cross-country evidence


Weather Shock I: 41 African Countries, 1981-99

Rainfall economic growth conflict

First-stage

SOURCE: MIGUEL, SATYANATH, SERGENTI (2004) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 12

Residual Regression


Reduced Form: Conflicts On Rainfall


Rainfall And Witch Killing In Rural Tanzania, 1992-2002

SOURCE: MIGUEL (2005) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 15

降水与游牧民族对中原的进攻, 前220-1839

SOURCE: BAI AND KUNG (2011) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 16

TECH SHOCK: 番薯引入降低了灾害对农民起义的影响

SOURCE: JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 17

自然灾害和农民起义， 249次，1470-1900


天灾与粮价上涨


番薯引入与农民起义


Discussion: Income Effect On Conflict

Lower opportunity cost?

Higher potential loots?

Inequality?

Hope?


Different Price Shocks In Columbia

SOURCE: DUBE AND VARGAS (2013) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 22

Lower Coffee Price (Labor-intensive Sector), Poorer, More Conflicts


Higher Oil Price, Higher Potential Plunder, More Conflicts


MECHANISM:


Foreign-aid SHOCK

Not only ineffective, but actually promoting conflict

Aid stealing, over long distance transportation

Difficult to say:

More conflicts call for more aids?

More conflicts reduce foreign governments’ aid, because of some political reasons?


Nunn And Qian(2014): 125 Non-OECD Countries, 1971-2006

Time variation in U.S. wheat production

Country’s likelihood of being a US food aid recipient

The interaction as an IV

Reduced-form is a DID.


More Wheat Production, More Stock in the U.S.

SOURCE: Nunn And Qian(2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 28

More STOCK, MORE AID

SOURCE: Nunn And Qian (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 29

Reduced-form Results, By Type Of Countries

SOURCE: Nunn And Qian (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 30

Aid And Conflicts: RD Evidence From Philippines, 2003-2008

Community-driven development (CDD) programs

to areas with civil conflicts

RD: eligibility --- poorest 25% of municipalities in participating provinces

SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 31

Program Participation And The Running Variable


Timing Of The Conflicts Suggests Sabotage:


Insurgent-initiated V.S. Government-initiated


Lee Test:


INSTITUTIONAL SHOCK: 取消科举与参加革命

262市，取消科举前后，1904-1905年

科举名额多的地方，受影响大

参加革命党的人多

更可能是响应辛亥革命的地方

SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014）复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 36

清朝科举


科举名额


科举名额


1277名“乱党”：姓名，籍贯，入会日期

兴中会

军国民教育会

华兴会

光复会

同盟会

日知会


进士与官员数目和名额，废除前


废除前后


革命党


科举名额与革命党人数，废除前后


日本留学生的作用


不是光爱惹事儿：义和团V.S.辛亥革命


也不是受灾饿的


Long-time Trend Of Wars, 1500-2000


The Decline Of Violence: Six Trends

1. The Pacification Process: hunting and gathering to agricultural civilizations

2. The Civilization Process: the late Middle Ages to the 20th century

3. The Humanitarian Process: the European Enlightenment

4. The Long Peace: since the end of World War II

5. The New Peace: since the end of the Cold War in 1989

6. The Rights Revolution: since the Declaration of Human Rights in 1948


The Decline Of Violence: Five Inner Demons

1. Predatory or Instrumental Violence

2. Dominance

3. Revenge

4. Sadism

5. Ideology


The Decline Of Violence: Four Better Angels

1. Empathy

2. Self-control

3. Moral Sense

4. Reason


The Decline Of Violence: Five Historical Forces

1. Leviathan

2. Commerce

3. Feminization

4. Cosmopolitanism

5. Escalator of Reason


Extra Readings


References

Bai, Ying, and James Kai-sing Kung. "Climate Shocks and Sino-nomadic Conflict." Review of Economics and Statistics 93.3 (2011): 970-981.

Bai, Ying, and Ruixue Jia, “Social Mobility and Revolution: The Impact of the Abolition of China's Civil Service Exam System”, Mimeo, UCSD (2014)

Blattman, Christopher, and Edward Miguel. "Civil War." Journal of Economic Literature (2010): 3-57.

Crost, Benjamin, Joseph Felter, and Patrick Johnston. 2014. "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review 104(6): 1833-56.

Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan F. Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." Review of Economic Studies 80.4 (2013): 1384-1421.

Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict." American Economic Review (2008): 2185-2202.

Esteban, Joan, Laura Mayoral, and Debraj Ray. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study." American Economic Review, 102.4 (2012): 1310-42.

Esteban, Joan, Laura Mayoral, and Debraj Ray. "Ethnicity and Conflict: Theory and Facts." Science 336.6083 (2012): 858-865.


References

Jia, Ruixue, “Weather Shocks, Sweet Potatoes and Peasant Revolts in Historical China”, Economic Journal 124 (2014): 92-118.

Miguel, Edward. "Poverty and Witch Killing." Review of Economic Studies 72.4 (2005): 1153-1172.

Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy 112.4 (2004): 725-753.

Montalov, Jose, and Reynal-Querol, Marta. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars." American Economic Review 95.3 (2005): 796-816.

Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review 104.6 (2014): 1630-66.

Pinker, Steven. The Better Angels of Our Nature: a History of Violence and Humanity. Penguin, 2012.


Documents

LECTURE 5: CIVIL CONFLICTS AND WARS Ixiaohuanlan.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/1/3/19133549/lecture_5_civil_w… · Rainfall And Witch Killing In Rural Tanzania, 1992-2002 SOURCE: MIGUEL