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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
BI 9
nh Gi v D Ton
Gii thiu
D ton: Qu trnh d bo hoc c chng thi gian v chi ph hon thnh d
n.
D ton tt ng vai tr then cht cho s hon thnh d n thnh cng ng hn,
va ngn sch v ng mc tiu
S dng WBS lm c s to cc d ton hot ng.
D ton khng phi l mt khoa hc chnh xc.
Cc d n thng c mt mc bt nh ln hn. 2
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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
Gii thiu
Nhiu nh qun l xem cng tc d ton l mt ngh thut
Thng tin m mt nh thu bit th thng nhng ngi khc cng bit
D ton l mt cng vic thit yu ca qu trnh hoch nh.
Hnh thnh c s cho vic thit lp cc tiu chun cho ngn sch, s gi cng,
chi ph vt liu, chi ph d phng, vv.
Phi xy dng cc chin lc nh gi c th cho tng tnh hung.
3
Bn phng php d ton ph bin
D ton theo ln- c thc hin khng cn d liu k thut chi tit
- C th s dng kinh nghim trc kia
- chnh xc +- 35% trong phm vi ca d n
D ton c chng (quy tc ngn tay ci)- c thc hin khng cn d liu k thut
chi tit
- C th s dng nhng d n tng t trc kia--
- chnh xc +- 15%
D ton xc nh (chi tit)- c chun b t nhng d liu k thut xc nh r rng,
cc bo gi ca i l, n gi, vv. chnh xc +- 5%
D ton th cng- Xy dng theo thi gian
- S dng nh gi n lc. chnh xc +-10%4
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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
Cc phng php d ton khc
D ton trc tip
- D ton/ngi c kinh nghim
- i hi phi c c phn xt
D ton da trn s ging nhau
- So snh vi cc hot ng tng t
- i hi phi c c phn xt
Phng php xc nh h s
- Da trn d liu trc kia
- Yu cu danh mc thit b, kch c
- Bt u bng nh gi thit b
Phng php phn chia t l
- Da trn d liu trc kia
- Thng tin gn ging ht5
D ton chi tit
- S dng WBS
- Chia WBS thnh nhiu cp
Phng php d k gi
- So snh ba bn d k gi
- Chn bn d k gi tt nht
S tay
ng cong hc tp
Cc phng php d ton khc
(tip)
6
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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
Nhng kh khn ca d ton
D ton thp nhng nguyn nhn chnh: Thnh vin i ng qu lc quan,
nh gi thp lng thi gian khng hiu qu,
Nh li khng y v kinh nghim trc kia (qun nhng kh khn v ch nh nhng
iu tt p), hoc
Thnh vin nhm khng c kinh nghim v hot ng
Phng i d ton i lc cc nh qun tr d n mi vo ngh mun phng i d ton
hot ng ng ngn sch hoc kp thi hn.
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D ton chi ph/gi
Phngphp d
ton
Loi gc Mi quan h WBS
chnh xc
Thi gian chun b
Tham s ROM* T trn xung -25% to +75% Ngy
Tng t Ngn sch T trn xung -25% to +75% Tun
K thut(C s)
Xc nh T di ln -5% to +10% Thng
* Rough Order of Magnitude: c tnh theo ln th
8
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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
D ton chi ph xy dng
Gi c nh hoc trn gi - $4,000 cho ton b d n
Gi n v - $90/gi cho cc dch v chuyn mn
Chi ph cng hoc Thi gian v Vt liu hoc Chi ph Cc hp ng c th hon li
chi ph ca vt liu thc t cng 20% li nhun
Project EstimateTimesCosts
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Gii thch chi ph d n
Chi ph gin tip ca d n
Nhng chi ph khng th gn vi bt k gi cng vic hay hot ng d n c th
no
Gim st, qun tr, t vn v tin li
Nhng chi ph thay i (tng) theo thi gian.
Gim thi gian d n trc tip lm gim nhng chi ph gin tip.
Chi ph trc tip
Nhng chi ph thng thng c th chia trc tip cho mt gi cng vic hoc mt
hot ng d n c th.
Lao ng, vt liu, thit b v cc nh thu ph
Cc hot ng ph v lm tng chi ph trc tip. 10
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Project Management
PGSM International Executive MBA
Hot ng trn lp 9a
Ti sao d ton khng phi l mt khoa hc chnh xc?
Ti sao ngi ta thng d ton thp cc hot ng?
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Cu Hi?
