Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic - Trend Survey … · 2020. 11. 10. · Other * Changed income Reasons for travel have changed * e.g. Cancellation by airline

Keynote for the 6th Amadeus Executive Round Table“Fresh Start of the International Mobility & Travel Industry”.

Manuel Wehner, online, 28 October 2020

Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic -Trend Survey Results “2020 Fall Edition”

Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences (Frankfurt UAS) in cooperation with Amadeus Germany GmbH

Page 1 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020

Fachbereich 3 Wirtschaft und Recht

Introduction

Manuel Wehner, M.Sc. (TUM)

Head of the IAT Founding Project & Lecturer, Frankfurt UAS

2018 – 2020: Master’s in Management & Technology, Technical Univ. of Munich (TUM)

2015 – 2017: Project Manager Innovation, Fraport AG

2011 – 2015: Dual Bachelor‘s in Aviation Management, Fraport AG and Frankfurt UAS

[email protected]; www.fra-uas.de/iat

Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt UAS

Practice-oriented research institute incl. a specialized student consultancy

Current focus: Strategic realignment of the aviation and tourism industries

Pilot projects e.g. with Amadeus Germany


Speaker

Institute

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.fra-uas.de/iat

Agenda

Objective, method and demography

Results of the survey

Leisure travel behavior

Corona testing

Digitalization

Travelling after the pandemic

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors


After a period of recovery and hope in summer, the second wave of Covid-19 is hitting Europe – what does this mean for the perception of travelling?

14-day COVID-19 case notification rate during fall and summer survey

Summer survey: weeks 29 & 30 Fall survey: weeks 41 & 42(29 Jul 2020) (15 Oct 2020)


In the context of the dramatically different situation this fall compared to July, two key questions need to be answered:

1. Have the outlook and reasons not to travel changed in fall, compared to the summer survey?

2. How important are new developments like expanded test opportunities and contactless travel?

Imag

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, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

10%

22%

35%

30%

2% 1%

Age groups

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 51 - 64 65 - 70 > 70

n=500*

After the insightful summer survey, the developments in travel behaviour in the Corona pandemic are followed up by another survey in fall

Overview on survey and participants:

• The IAT has conducted a second survey on private travel behavior with 41 questions in cooperation with Amadeus Germany GmbH

• German and English questionnaires; 750 respondents, period: 30.09.2020 until 14.10.2020(first survey: 305 responses)

• Participants mainly share an academic or touristic background, are primarily located in Germany, and are from all age groups

• Results of the first survey [German only]: https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trendumfrage-juli-2020


85%

15%Place of residence

DACH Rest of Europe Other America

Arabian Peninsula Asia Oceania

n=500*

*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)

https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trendumfrage-juli-2020

Agenda




Corona testing

Digitalization


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The outlook became more pessimistic: Most people do not believe that normal travelling will be possible before 2022

Summer survey (July 2020):

• The lockdown had ended & the recovery period led to optimism

• The majority estimated that travelling as before would be possible in 2021

Fall survey (October 2020):

• The second wave was on the horizon & forecasts became more negative

• The majority now does not expect to return to normal before 2022



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

End of 2020 2021 2022 After 2022 No estimation

When will traveling like before be possible again?

Summer survey Fall survey

n=557*

Entry requirements and concerns about quarantine are the main factors that keep people from travelling


**Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Entryrequirements in

country ofdestination

Concern aboutquarantine on

return

Concern aboutquarantine in

country ofdestination

Fear of infectingothers (new)

Risk of owninfection

(new)

Generaluncertainty

Concern aboutnon-refundable

cancellations

Avoidingcrossing borders

(new)

Other * Changed income Reasons fortravel have

changed

* e.g. Cancellation by airline / travel agent, currently no flight connections, work-related restrictions / consequences, cancelled events (EM 2020), annoyed by wearing masks

Reasons for changed travel behavior in 2020

Summer survey Fall survey

n=668**

Entry requirements like travel bans and border closures affect travel decisions the most. Further important reasons are concerns about quarantine and infecting family members and colleagues.

Agenda




Corona testing

Digitalization


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



40% are positively affected by test opportunities along their travel route; short waiting times are of utmost importance



34% are not or even negatively affected by test opportunities.

14%

26%

26%

18%

2%

14%

Effect of test opportunities on the travel decision

Strongly positive Positive Barely positive

None Negative Not travelling

n=484*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Timebetweentest and

result

Testingtime

Price Testlocation

Test type Languagepersonnel

Other

Key aspects when taking a travel-related Corona test n=471*

Key aspects are the time between the test and the result and the time needed to take the test itself.

More than half of the travelers, who travelled less than last year, are willing to pay more for guaranteed Corona-safe travelling



People, who do/did not travel during the pandemic, are the least interested to pay extra.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

I don't travel. I travel way less. I travel less. I travel at least as much asbefore.

Willigness to pay for Corona-safe travelling in comparison to the reduction of trips in 2020

Very low

Low

No estimation

High

Very high

n=492*p=0,034 significantChi-Sq-Test

Agenda




Corona testing

Digitalization


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



More than 50% of travelers value the option of contactless travel positively; DACH participants are less willing to share personal data compared to others



For more than half of the participants the option of a contactless trip impacts their travel decision positively.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Stronglypositive

Positive None Negative Noestimation

Effect of contactless travel options on the travel decision n=490*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

DACH countries All other countries

Willingness to upload biometric data into an app

No estimation

No willigness

Low

High

Very high

Already using

n=500*

Two thirds are willing to upload biometric data into an app. The willingness in DACH countries is lower than in other countries.

Except name, address and phone number, the willingness to share more data than absolutely necessary is very low



More than half of the participants are willing to share their name, addressand phone number.

Beyond this, there is significantly less willingness to share other types of data, e.g. relevant health information or biometric data.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Name &address

Phone number Relevanthealth

information

Biometric data Personalbehavior and

acitvities

Social mediaprofiles

Willingness to share particular data with tripmakersabove what is absolutely necessary

No estimation

Very low

Low

High

Very high

n=379*

Agenda




Corona testing

Digitalization


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



After the crisis, participants value sustainability the highest tourism trends; except entry requirements, other reasons for not travelling are barely impacted by age


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sustainability Conceptsbeyond mass

tourism

Economicand social

factors

Climateprotection

No change intravel

behavior

Questioningown travelbehavior

Digitalservices

Other

Importance of trends after the crisis n=739*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 50+

Reasons for Changed Travel Behavior Per Age Group

Entry requirements in the country of destinationAvoiding crossing bordersFear of potentially infecting othersFear of corona infectionConcern about non-refundable cancellations

n=449*

The most important topics for travelers are sustainability and new tourism concepts.

Entry requirements have highest impact on travel behavior for all age groups, but more so for the younger. Infection-related factors are roughly equal across all age groups.


Seite 17 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020

Thank you very much for your attention!

Agenda




Corona testing

Digitalization


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



A significant decrease of infections is the most important condition to convincetravelers to travel as before the crisis


Infections need to decrease in order to convince travelers to travel as before the pandemic.

Regular updates of changes and the speed of receiving test results are more important than hygiene concepts for contact avoidance.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Significantdecrease ofinfections

Regular updatesabout current,

relevant changes

Rapid test results Contact Avoidance Contactless travelcan be guaranteed

No estimation

Importance of conditions to be fulfilled to travel as before n=556*


Sanitary and political factors are more important when planning a trip than factors that are in the control of the tourism industry


The most volatile factors of each category – such as current infections and local Corona measures – impact the planning of a trip abroad the most. Regular updates of changes and the speed of receiving test results are more important than hygiene concepts for contact avoidance.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Activeinfections

Local healthsystem

Local Covid-19 deaths

Local anti-corona

measures

Local politicalsituation

Diplomaticrelations to

homecountry

Distance tohome country

Test offers

Sanitary factors Political factors Somewhat steerable factors(for the tourism industry)

Impact level of various factors in the country of destination when planning a trip abroad

No estimation

No impact

Slight impact

Impact

Strong impact

n=542*

Willingness to pay more for a Corona-safe travel correlates highly significantly with the effect of Corona test offers and contactless traveling on the travel decision


It appears that there is a group that is willing to travel as normal again. Subsequently, it views all trends contributing to this goal positively. This group is also more willing to share data above what is absolutely necessary for travelling.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Negative / no effect Slightly positive effect Positive effect Strong positive effect

Willingness to pay extra for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience in correlation with the effect of Corona test offers

on the travel decisionVery high willigness High willigness No estimation Almost no willingness No willingness

n=480*, p=0,00 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Negative / no effect Slightly positive effect Positive effect

Willingness to pay extra for a Corona-safe travel experience in correlation with the effect of

contactless travel on the travel decisionVery high willigness High willigness No estimation

n=485*, p=0,00 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test

The effect of contactless travel on travel decisions is the most positive with younger age groups


Travel decisions of younger travelers are more affected by a contactless travel options than those of older travelers.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 >51

Effect of contactless travel on travel decision per age group

No estimation

Negative effect

No effect

Positive effect

Strong positiveeffect

n=490*p=0,00 highly significantKendall-Tau-test


While younger travelers are more willing to upload biometric data, the actual adoption rate of the technology is roughly the same throughout all age groups


Biometric data is a fundamental requirement for contactless travelling, e.g. the boarding process at the airport or the check-in process at the hotel. Across all age groups, mosttravelers are willing to upload biometric data for this reason.

Younger travelers are more pronethan older. However, the actual adoption rate is equal throughout all age groups (ca. 7%).


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 >51

Willingness to upload biometric data into an app per age group

No estimation

No willingness

Low

High

Very high

Already using

n=500*,p=0,0065 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test

Business travelers are considerably more likely to pay more for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience than leisure travelers


Business travelers have a higher willingness to pay more than private travelers. In both groups, more than half of the travelers are willing to pay extra for a Corona-safe trip.

“Private traveler” includes travel purpose “Leisure only” and “Mainly leisure”“Business traveler” includes travel purpose “Business only” and “Mainly business”


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Private traveler Business traveler

Willingness to pay extra for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience per type of traveler

Very low

Low

No estimation

High

Very high

n=395*p=0,00 highly significantKendall-Tau-test

The assessment of airline flexibility correlates highly significantly with when people expect to travel as before – but why?


Correlation is no causality. This correlation can be interpreted in a plethora of ways:• Does airline flexibility directly

impact traveling optimism?• If so, can higher flexibility lure in

travelers? How could this flexibility look like?

• Or: Is optimism negatively effected by negative experiences with airlines, such as late refund or cancellation?

• Or: Are pessimistic people just more negative in general?


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Normal traveling asfrom end of 2020

Normal traveling in2021

Normal traveling in2022

Normal traveling after2022

Correlation "How much flexibility do airlines offer you?" and "When do you think you will be able to travel as you

did before the pandemic?"

High flexibility Some flexibility Little flexibility No flexibility at all

n=244*

Food for thought

Documents

Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic - Trend Survey … · 2020. 11. 10. · Other * Changed income Reasons for travel have changed * e.g. Cancellation by airline