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Tao Hong, PhD
Big Data Energy Analytics Laboratory (BigDEAL)
Lessons Learned from Organizing Energy
Forecasting Competitions
Forecasting
All forecasts are wrong,
but some are useful.
Energy forecasting
Hong and Fan (2016) Probabilistic energy forecasting: A tutorial review, IJF
Energy forecasting papers
Hong and Fan (2016) Probabilistic load forecasting: A tutorial review, IJFWeron (2014) Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future, IJF
What’s wrong, and why?
Hong, Wang and Willis (2011) A naive multiple linear regression benchmark for short term load forecasting, PESGM2011 (panel session: practical aspects of electric load forecasting)
IEEE WG on Energy Forecasting
Current project
Benchmarking of STLF accuracy
Completed projects
Literature review on load forecasting
Two competitions (GEFCom2012, GEFCom2014)
Two TSG SS: energy forecasting; big data analytics
IEEE PES tutorial: energy forecasting in the smart grid era
10 panel sessions since 2011, 50+ speakers from 12 countries
Energy forecasting competitions
EPRI load forecasting competition, 1990s
EUNITE load forecasting competition, 2001
Global Energy Forecasting Competition, 2012
Global Energy Forecasting Competition, 2014
RWE npower forecasting challenge, 2015
SAS Analytics2015 load forecasting competition, 2015
BigDEAL forecasting competition, 2016
EEM2016 electricity price forecasting competition, 2016
Global Energy Forecasting Competition, 201x
Global Energy Forecasting Competitions
5/12/2012: Forecasting competitions are a great way to test new methods and obtain a realistic evaluation of how good they are. So I’m delighted that the IEEE is organizing an energy forecasting competition …
2/19/2014: The 2012 GEFcomcompetition was a great success with several new innovative forecasting methods introduced.
8/18/2014: GEFCom2014 is the most advanced energy forecasting competition ever organized, both in terms of the data involved, and in terms of the way the forecasts will be evaluated.
GEFCom2012
2000+ entries
200+ teams
30+ countries
$18,000
GEFCom2012 winning teams
Hong, Pinson, Fan, Zareipour, Troccoli and Hyndman (2016) Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 20124 and beyond, IJF
GEFCom2014
581 contestants from 61 countries
$25,000 + $1,000
Hong, Pinson and Fan (2014) Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012, IJF
BFCom2016s
49 registrations
15 countries
$0
Facts
2-year cycle
Small organizing committee
Small prize money
Free (or close-to-free) platforms
Participants with diverse background
Some winners not from power & energy community
Some winners hate writing academic papers
Difference between top teams in renewable and load forecasting tracks
…
Lessons learned
You cannot please everyone
Remember THE purpose for organizing the competition
There are not many true experts in energy forecasting
Forget political correctness
Data and technical issues may happen any time
KISS – keep it simple, stupid
It’s A LOT OF WORK …
Questions?
blog.drhongtao.com
Energy Forecasting @2015
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