Upload
kathlyn-sharp
View
238
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Let Me See: Visualizing Actuarial Information
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D.Vice President, Information Systems & Technology
COMMERCIAL RISK
Actuarial Process
Data Collection, Cleanup and Transformation Application of Agorithms and Methods Representation of Results
0
Actuarial Process
1
AlgorithmsResults
Data
Ideal Actuarial System
An ideal actuarial processing solution is a a) transparent to users and b) highly efficient storage/retrieval system for c) structured actuarial data (objects) with d) an extremely flexible, e) computationally complete, f) open calculation engine and g) integrated, h) automated and i) interactivereport generator
2
Actuarially-Centric Systems
Insurance companies build their computer systems around their strengths: Claims Accounting Underwriting
Actuarial Functionality is always an afterthought 2a
Human perception
Relies heavily on Short-Term Memory.Problems with STM: Can hold only 5-7 similar similar items at
once It’s a “buffer”: new info erases old
information Even without distractions can hold info only
for 30 seconds 2b
Data-Driven Technologies
2c
Adaptive Reporting Visualization Alarm Systems
Adaptive Reporting
Adaptive Reporting Filtering Sorting Outlining Conditional Formatting OLAP-enabled tools
2d
Adaptive Reporting: Filtering
3
Auto-Filter in Excel Plain-Vanilla Filtering Checking Distinct Values Adaptive Filtering (through VBA)
Adaptive Reporting: Outlining
4
Outlining in Excel Hierarchical view Different level of details Subtotals
Master-Detail relationship in Access
Adaptive Reporting: Sorting
5
Does not reduce amount of information displayed
Brings most important info on top or up front
Requires definition of importance
Adaptive Reporting: Dynamic Formatting
6
Conditional Formatting in Excel allows users to define
font color border background pattern
of a cell as a function of the values in other cells
Adaptive Reporting: OLAP(Online Analitycal Processing)
7
Pivot Tables and OLAP cubes in Excel Combine
Filtering Outlining Sorting
Add on-the-fly processing Calculated Field Calculated Item
Data Source is not limited by 65,536 rows
Visualization: Charts
8
There is a chart for every occasion: line chart for displaying increases bar for shares pedestal for ranks Gantt for schedules
But what about actuarial triangles?
Visualization: Charts
8a1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
24 - 36
60 - 72
96 - 1081.000
1.050
1.100
1.150
1.200
1.250
Visualization: Maps
9
Maps in Microsoft MapPoint: Colors Shapes Glyphs Isosurfaces
Links to Office applications VBA
Visualization: Animation
10
If a picture is worth a thousand words, thenan animation is worth a thousand pictures “selective attention”: people react on any
movement (change in color, shape or position) display of different stages in the motion displacement plots time animations streamlines (traces)
For actuaries: iterations of simulation!
Visualization: Visual Tools
11
Making actuarial selections interactively, directly on the chart
Instant visual feedback Changing parameters during animation:
invaluable for DFA
Alarm Systems: Data Quality
12
Alarm System triggers an action whenever problem is found: creates record in the log sends e-mail stops processing runs additional tests
Alarm Systems: Algorithms Applicability
13
Actuarial assumptions testing Mack Murphy Zehnwirth
Alarm Systems: Digital Dashboard
14
Portal to the most important info Corporate Professional Personal
Dashboard’s space limitations re-emphasize the necessity of space-conscious reporting techniques!
Conclusion
15
For effective use of computerized reporting tools available to actuaries, it is imperative to define measurable indicators of actuarial significance…
Conclusion
15
“The gods help them that help themselves.”
Aesop
Me.About
Actuarially related activities:• Prize for the best article in the “Data Management discussion paper”
call (1997).• Creation and distribution of actuarial software
• Triangle Maker® (1994), Triangle Maker® Pro (1997), Actuarial Toolchest™ (1998) , Enabler™ (1999)
• Design, development and coding of the 2nd and 3rd (current) generation of Affinity (1996)
• Promotion of notions like Ideal Actuarial System and Data Quality Shield, and paradigms like object-oriented actuarial software and data-driven visualization.Presently developing an integrated pricing/reserving/DFA computer system for reinsurance and also an action/adventure computer game tentatively called “Actuarial Judgement”. An active member of several scientific societies and an author of almost 20 scientific publications. end