7
The Plasmoid Paradigm and Economics and Physics Periodicity Edward Lewis 1 Sciencejunk.org, USA, [email protected] Abstract-- The cold fusion field is a part of the plasmoid paradigm. Cratering and anomalous tracks evidence plasmoid activity. Physics paradigms change every 80 years or so. Why this happened is explained, and what researchers may expect both in terms of phenomena and future economic development is explained. Index TermsKondratiev wave, low temperature sloshing, plasmoid paradigm, physics revolution. I. INTRODUCTION In 1989, this author developed a theory about why scientific paradigms in the field of physics change every 80 years, and how this leads to economic depressions along a 40 or 50 year pattern. Looking at the early cold fusion results, it was clear that a revolution was in the works. What were needed were new key principles to identify seemingly different kinds of anomalies. Natural ball lightning is a wonderfully interesting phenomenon with a lot of characteristics of anomalous cold fusion results. Here is a summary of two decades of modeling, predictions, and results in the two fields. In early 1992, T. Matsumoto started announcing that he found highly unusual ring traces in nuclear emulsions he used for particle detection. This is a common research technique now, but at the beginning of the field, it was innovative. I guessed he was probably looking at ball lightning tracks since I knew that ball lightning and tornadoes leave this type of track. See Figure 1. Fig. 1. Tornado-ball lightning-like tracks found on nuclear emulsion by Matsumoto in 1994 [2]. He found several tracks like these. Like tornadoes, they show a hopping and skimming behavior. See earlier articles relating tornadoes to ball lightning and this type of plasmoid. Even before I saw a picture of any track that he started to publish in Fusion Technology in 1992, I assumed that tiny ball lightning were probably being formed in the electrodes or someplace in the apparatus, and this is what was causing transmutation and excess heat effects. Then I started to read about Ken Shoulder’s discoveries about experimentally produced plasmoids. Though he rarely uses the term in his writings, he understands that this is what he is researching, following on the work of W. Bostick. Most people in the field probably don’t know about W. Bostick or his importance in the history of science. Further reading about his 1950s experimental and theoretical research on galaxy shape modeling and how this led to Alfven’s MHD theory and plasma cosmology can be found in Lerner’s The Big Bang Never Happened and in my writings including a long book[2] I wrote mainly in the 1990s and is now on my website. I started to try to understand everything, including the Universe and matter as plasmoids. The difference between my theoretical work and others is that I base my thinking on observed natural anomalies such as ball lightning and tornadoes and their energetic or strange effects, cold fusion research anomalies, and Ken Shoulder’s experimental results as far as I know about them. Here is a list of the predictions based on the two models I am presenting, and you can verify that in the past twenty years, the predictions were historically proved out for the science-economic theory and experimentally proved out for the plasmoid physics theory. The physics model I work with is fundamental but rudimentary. This is because few researchers have published experimental results explaining the characteristics or activities of the plasmoids. II. SCIENCE THEORY MODELING The science-economic theory was developed in 1989. Why did it seem that physics revolutions happened at 80 year intervals, but Kondratiev economic waves were about 50 or 40 years apart? A key for bridging productivity growth acceleration near the beginning of an industrial revolution and economic depression was a book called Technological Acceleration and the Great Depression by JP Waters that was written in the 1970s. It was clear that the industrial revolutions themselves when old industries die and are replaced by new but labor-intensive industry and many small startup companies were occasions for economic depression. The time of technological acceleration in the middle of the industrial cycle was another occasion. So this explained why high productivity and low productivity growth economic depression periods alternated at about 40 or 50 year intervals.

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  • The Plasmoid Paradigm

    and Economics and Physics Periodicity Edward Lewis

    1 Sciencejunk.org, USA, [email protected]

    Abstract-- The cold fusion field is a part of the plasmoid

    paradigm. Cratering and anomalous tracks evidence

    plasmoid activity. Physics paradigms change every 80 years

    or so. Why this happened is explained, and what researchers

    may expect both in terms of phenomena and future

    economic development is explained.

    Index TermsKondratiev wave, low temperature

    sloshing, plasmoid paradigm, physics revolution.

    I. INTRODUCTION

    In 1989, this author developed a theory about why

    scientific paradigms in the field of physics change every

    80 years, and how this leads to economic depressions

    along a 40 or 50 year pattern. Looking at the early cold

    fusion results, it was clear that a revolution was in the

    works. What were needed were new key principles to

    identify seemingly different kinds of anomalies. Natural

    ball lightning is a wonderfully interesting phenomenon

    with a lot of characteristics of anomalous cold fusion

    results. Here is a summary of two decades of modeling,

    predictions, and results in the two fields.

    In early 1992, T. Matsumoto started announcing that

    he found highly unusual ring traces in nuclear emulsions

    he used for particle detection. This is a common research

    technique now, but at the beginning of the field, it was

    innovative. I guessed he was probably looking at ball

    lightning tracks since I knew that ball lightning and

    tornadoes leave this type of track. See Figure 1.

    Fig. 1. Tornado-ball lightning-like tracks found on nuclear emulsion by

    Matsumoto in 1994 [2]. He found several tracks like these. Like

    tornadoes, they show a hopping and skimming behavior. See earlier

    articles relating tornadoes to ball lightning and this type of plasmoid.

    Even before I saw a picture of any track that he started

    to publish in Fusion Technology in 1992, I assumed that

    tiny ball lightning were probably being formed in the

    electrodes or someplace in the apparatus, and this is

    what was causing transmutation and excess heat effects.

    Then I started to read about Ken Shoulders discoveries about experimentally produced plasmoids.

    Though he rarely uses the term in his writings, he

    understands that this is what he is researching, following

    on the work of W. Bostick.

    Most people in the field probably dont know about W. Bostick or his importance in the history of science.

    Further reading about his 1950s experimental and

    theoretical research on galaxy shape modeling and how

    this led to Alfvens MHD theory and plasma cosmology can be found in Lerners The Big Bang Never Happened and in my writings including a long book[2] I wrote

    mainly in the 1990s and is now on my website.

    I started to try to understand everything, including the

    Universe and matter as plasmoids. The difference

    between my theoretical work and others is that I base my

    thinking on observed natural anomalies such as ball

    lightning and tornadoes and their energetic or strange

    effects, cold fusion research anomalies, and Ken

    Shoulders experimental results as far as I know about them.

    Here is a list of the predictions based on the two

    models I am presenting, and you can verify that in the

    past twenty years, the predictions were historically

    proved out for the science-economic theory and

    experimentally proved out for the plasmoid physics

    theory. The physics model I work with is fundamental but

    rudimentary. This is because few researchers have

    published experimental results explaining the

    characteristics or activities of the plasmoids.

    II. SCIENCE THEORY MODELING

    The science-economic theory was developed in 1989.

    Why did it seem that physics revolutions happened at 80

    year intervals, but Kondratiev economic waves were

    about 50 or 40 years apart? A key for bridging

    productivity growth acceleration near the beginning of an

    industrial revolution and economic depression was a book

    called Technological Acceleration and the Great

    Depression by JP Waters that was written in the 1970s.

    It was clear that the industrial revolutions themselves

    when old industries die and are replaced by new but

    labor-intensive industry and many small startup

    companies were occasions for economic depression. The

    time of technological acceleration in the middle of the

    industrial cycle was another occasion.

    So this explained why high productivity and low

    productivity growth economic depression periods

    alternated at about 40 or 50 year intervals.

  • Back in the 1990s, maybe nobody believed this model

    could be true. But it is producing accurate predictions

    as time goes by. This is described below.

    There have been seven scientific revolutions in

    physics:

    The Copernican, about 1506. When he believed the solar system was sun centered, he also innovated a new

    physical model to explain to people how things are.

    The Galilean, about 1593. Around this time in response to the anomalies detected in the decades prior,

    Gilbert, Galileo, and Kepler formulated similar physical

    paradigms. We know that they thought that their models

    were similar because Galileo and Kepler corresponded

    and wrote about each other. It is clear that they had

    knowledge of Gilberts book about geology, the solar system, and various scientific topics.

    The Newtonian, 1664. In his early 20s, in response to various anomalies of the prior paradigm, he formulated

    an influential theory about corpuscular atoms, aethers,

    and action at a distance (gravity).

    The Fluid paradigm originally formulated by Franklin, about 1745. Others such as Aepinus and

    Coulomb helped to develop the basic theory about

    material fluids of electricity, heat and magnetism. This

    paradigm was quickly adopted almost universally in

    advanced countries. The quick adoption of the paradigm

    enabled the development of heat, chemical, and electric

    technology that enabled the First Industrial to occur

    relatively quickly after the paradigms inception. This in turn caused the long lull at the end of the 1800s and the

    50 year Kondtratiev wave timing of the 1800s since

    Faradays paradigm was accepted comparatively slowly. The Classical Field theory paradigm, rudimentarily

    formulated by Faraday in 1820 and developed by

    Maxwell;

    The Quantum Mechanics (Q.M.) and Relativity theory paradigm formulated by Einstein, about 1905.

    Modern industry of the 21st century is based on the

    theoretical advances in Quantum Mechanics and

    experimental research based on the theory and technology

    based on QM precepts.

    The Plasmoid paradigm, 1992, is apparently only described by me. Obviously there have been numerous

    discoveries in our field and the related ball lightning and

    plasmoid fields. Many are described in this paper, and my

    model is described below. The new phenomena are

    fundamentally important. In order to speed up research

    and spread understanding, Id like to encourage cold fusion researchers to work and collaborate more with ball

    lightning and plasmoid researchers. There could be joint

    international conferences on these topics.

    In 1992, I corresponded with Matsumoto, and he

    accepted the idea of micro ball lightning. His work in this

    field is very important to understand. I think perhaps lack

    of access to his many early papers in Fusion Technology

    is preventing is results from being analyzed and

    understood by researchers now.

    I also learned a lot from Ken Shoulders early patents and statements in 1992. We corresponded also. I think it

    may have been a reference in Ken Shoulders patent to W.

    Bosticks articles that introduced me to earlier plasmoid research. Understanding the galaxy as a plasmoid helped

    me to understand that atoms are plasmoids, the stars are

    plasmoids, and that electrical clumping can explain

    atomic existence and behavior. As shown below,

    Bosticks study of the plasmoid markings on his witness plates is still useful for comparison to similar plasmoid markings produced more recently such as those of

    Energetics Technologies in the last few years.

    A. Science-Economic Theory Model

    There are major changes in the basic postulates of

    physics during the scientific revolutions. Science doesnt develop by incremental modification of theory, but by

    replacement of fundamental theory by new theory based

    on different principles. Major changes of physics enable

    major revolutions of technology. The revolutions

    happened about every 80 years. In fact, the period 15061905 is 399 years, or about 5 x 80 years. See Figure 2.

    Fig. 2. Chart of the 7 paradigm revolutions over time.

    What causes the paradigms to space like this? Clues

    were in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Kuhn.

    He himself never described that physics paradigm

    changed happen at 80 year intervals. But it is interesting

    that he did declare a length of time for the crisis periods leading up to paradigm change of 10 to 20 years. As

    explained below, the crisis periods happen through the

    experimental and technical work of the third generation.

    B. Three Generations to Create and Destroy 1 Paradigm

    Thomas Kuhn described the causes that make

    paradigm change a three generation process in his

    writings. He wrote about the inhibition of apprehension

    (sort of like the Planck principle: scientists are never

    convinced of new ideas; new theories triumph because

    they die.) He also wrote about how theorists and

  • technicians (experimentalists) are different.

    (I) Older, more experienced people learn new ideas

    slowly or not at all, especially when the ideas are very

    different from their own. I call this constraint the

    inhibition of apprehension.

    (II) Theoreticians are not usually the best

    experimenters or technicians, and vice versa. I call this

    constraint the difference between theoreticians and

    technicians.

    Kuhn wrote: Almost always the men who achieve

    these fundamental inventions of a new paradigm have

    been either very young or very new to the field whose

    paradigm they change.

    He also wrote: what scientists never do when

    confronted by even several and prolonged anomalies.

    Though they may begin to lose faith and then to consider

    alternatives, they do not renounce the paradigm that has

    led them into crisis anomalies are seldom just an

    increment to what is already known. [Their] assimilation

    requires the reconstruction of prior theory and the re-

    evaluation of prior fact. This explains why no one in the

    cold fusion field except maybe Ken Shoulders as far as I

    know has stopped believing in QM or can understand

    what I am writing about well.

    Principle 1 keeps no one but the young or newcomers

    from formulating a new paradigm. They do this

    historically between the age of 23 and 45, the usual

    productive years for starting new things. Since almost no

    one else in his generation may believe him, it is the

    younger people (the next generation) who accept and

    develop his ideas.

    They generally develop their ideas when they reach

    their thirties and forties. But due to Principle 2, the

    theoretical developers of the paradigm are not good

    inventors. Especially, they dont invent the seminal technologies for industrial revolution, and they dont discover the anomalies (contradictions) of their own ideas.

    This happens in the next generation.

    A 3rd

    generation of young people who grew up being

    taught the paradigm began to invent the major new

    technologies and new scientific devices, and some

    discover fundamental anomalies. Of necessity, they begin

    to do this about 20 to 30 years after the theory was well

    developed by the 2nd

    generation. This is necessary

    because children below the age of 10 or teenagers can not

    do this type of laboratory work. Work of this caliber

    requires about 30 or 40 years of training and experience.

    This is why the early cold fusion researchers were

    mostly middle-aged when this field started, and why they

    are old men now. This is why the field is mainly the

    province of old men which makes it difficult for my ideas

    to be understood or accepted.

    A crisis period starts and continues with 10 or 20 years

    (Kuhns stated length of time) until a newcomer formulates new principles based not on older theoretical

    axioms and hypotheses but directly based on the nature

    of the anomalies themselves as I describe in my book.

    However, our field is facing a different situation than

    the prior formulators faced after Newton. Now, the very

    anomalies themselves are still generally believed by most

    scientists as not to be true. (Many say we are a bunch of

    liars and freaks). However, Copernicus and Galileo faced

    a similar situation during their times. Scientists have

    faced similar times before. Maybe we can learn some tips

    from them about how to carry on this debate for public

    opinion.

    C. Industrial Revolutions and Kondratiev Waves

    Fig. 3. Chart showing the spacing of technological acceleration periods when the productivity growth accelerates. That depressionary

    times arise when productivity is rapidly rising is initially counter-intuitive. But the rising productivity (as now) is a mirror of the

    increasing unemployment or disemployment and the lowering incomes

    in the most technologically advanced economies.

    Industrial revolutions begin at about the time of the

    crisis periods in physics. A group of major new industries

    form at the same time. Both the new industries and the

    finding of fundamental anomalies happen due to the

    development of new technology at these times. The last

    crisis period and industrial revolution happened during

    the period 1960-1992. See my earlier articles on this topic

    to see how industrial revolution leads to the two kinds of

    economic depressions and how the Kondratiev long wave

    arises.

    So far, there have been three industrial revolutions.

    The first one can be said to have started in 1790. The

    second one can be said to have started about 1890. The

    third one can be said to have started about 1973. Do you

    know what happened industrially in the US at these

    times? You might remember the semiconductor, PC, laser,

    and electronics revolutions of the 1970s if you were alive

    then. All of these industries were based on QM

    technology.

    In the 1890s, there was a revolution of automobile

    manufacture, electrical appliances, and steel and

    petroleum.

    In the 1790s, the technological revolution had to do

    with perfecting workable steam engines, "caloric"

    chemical industries, and electric batteries and their

    applications. All of these industries were developed by

    people who believed in the new fluid paradigm of physics.

  • Youll notice that Franklins fluid ideas spread and were

    developed unusually quickly. He was a publisher, famous

    and influential for many reasons, had leading scientists

    for friends who assisted him, and his theoretical

    framework was simple and intuitive.

    Industrial revolutions have arisen about 45 to 73 years

    after the scientific revolutions for the reasons described

    above. When major new industries arise in a paradigm,

    there are many small companies who invest in inventing

    better products and features.

    But about 30 years after the industries start, for various

    reasons, products standardize. For example, there were

    lots of automobile companies about 1910 or so, but by

    1930 or so, the shape and functions of cars were

    standardized, and the companies invested in automation

    to compete on prices for basically the same product. This

    is called the "switch from product innovation to process

    innovation in the industrial life cycle." The same

    oligopoly and automation process is happening nowadays.

    Since many big industries start in each industrial

    revolution, when all these industries hit this stage of

    development at the same time, unemployment rises a lot

    as human labor productivity rises substantially. People

    learn to make the same things faster and cheaper without

    so much human labor, and prices on products may go

    down, though unemployment goes up as companies have

    layoffs, merge, go bankrupt, and a few companies emerge

    as the survivors in each industry. This is why US

    unemployment probably really is about 18 or 23 percent

    if measured how it was measured in the US before the

    Clinton administration.

    Another kind of depression happens during the

    industrial revolutions because old industries die off and

    new ones start. Remember the 1970s? A lot of "rust-belt,"

    "smokestack" industries closed in the US, and the new

    industries stated. See Figure 3. At those times the US has

    had depressions or deep recessions when productivity

    growth is historically low. It dipped to about .5% per year

    in the 2nd and 3rd Industrial Revolutions.

    As you can see, the timing of economic depression

    periods are a little more irregular than the timing of

    scientific revolutions. They average about 40 years apart.

    See Figure 4.

    Fig. 4. Chart showing the relationship of the productivity growth curve

    and the economic depressionary times. The depressions or deep

    recessions happen at the points of lowest productivity growth and at the points when the productivity growth curve has the highest slope. The

    grey areas show the times of depressionary periods: 1780s-1790s,

    1830s-1840s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s-early 1980s, late 2000s-2010s.

    III. PHYSICS: PLASMOID PARADIGM MODELING

    The Plasmoid paradigm can be said to have begun

    in 1992. From about 1973 to 1992, there was a crisis

    period. After reading about ball lightning and cold fusion

    experiments, it was clear that ball lightning had some

    superconductive effects, that ball lightning was similar to

    cold fusion in many ways (excess heat, explosions,

    radioactivity, evidence of transmutation, transitory

    existence), and that cold fusion, ball lightning, and HTSC

    were fundamental anomalies. What was the natural key

    that ties these phenomena together? Ball lightning-like

    material forms in experiments in the right conditions.

    This suggests that atoms change to a plasmoid state.

    Atoms in the plasmoid state may behave like ball

    lightning.

    Electricity clumps. Ball lightnings are clumps of

    electricity. Experimental research on plasmoids shows us

    some of their characteristics. They are highly energetic,

    can change state from an active and to an inactive state,

    vary greatly in size, and produce atoms transmutations

    and make atoms disappear where they travel.

    It is clear that electricity clumps of itself. There is no

    reason to believe that regular atoms are anything other

    than plasmoids in the inactive state. Stress of various

    kinds including compression, electrical stimulation, or

    heating can cause atoms to change state. A region of

    atoms in this state may emerge as objects that travel like

    ball lightning. This would leave voids, tunnels, holes, pits

    and craters. These spots of plasmoid activity would

    evidence atomic transmutation and strange behavior.

    What keen researchers with good equipment, insight, and

    patience find in their experiments.

    Lipson and Celani started researching the

    superconductivity associated with transmutation and cold

    fusion experiments around 1990. I wrote about

    superconductivity as a plasmoid phenomena in the middle

    of the 1990s. In the early to middle 2000s, Lipson and

    Miley published their research at the U of I of evidence of

    superconductivity in environments associated with cold

    fusion effects.

    There is no direct evidence of nuclei in atoms. But

    there is direct evidence in the form of tracks, plasmoid

    craters and markings, bore holes, and electrode structures

    such as Dashs filaments (that kept growing and transmuting after experiments were over) of plasmoid

    formation and activity in electrodes or other sites in

    various experiments. The atoms are converting to a

    previously unknown state that can be likened to ball

    lightning or the anomalous plasmoids researched by

    Shoulders.

    Since 1992, Ive written and published many articles about these ideas in the publications in the the fields of

    cold fusion and ball lightning. The most comprehensive articles are a long descriptive article written in 1992

    called Description of Phenomena According to My Theory and Experiments to Test It, my papers in

  • ICCF10 and ICCF11, and the 2009 articles in Infinite

    Energy and The Journal of Condensed Matter Nuclear

    Science.

    My model is based on certain assumptions.

    (I) Plasmoids exist that evidence superconductivity,

    ability to bore through materials and make tunnels, the

    ability to travel through materials without making tunnels,

    produce time and gravity change (heuristic hypothesis

    needing confirmation), cause atoms to transmute, explode

    and do the activities that ball lightning and anomalous

    plasmoids are known to do. They clump and divide and

    tend to form geometrical formations. Since these

    phenomena have been so little researched experimentally,

    much is unknown about them. But understanding their

    characteristics will develop the paradigm.

    (II) Regular atoms are plasmoids in an inactive state.

    But they may convert to the state where they evidence the

    above anomalies.

    (III) A heuristic hypothesis is that everything is a

    plasmoid. There has been good research in this direction

    of modeling the universe by others though they usually

    dont use the term plasmoid. In the past, the field was

    called plasma cosmology (including Alfven who won the

    Nobel Prize for MHD theory), and more recently the term

    electric universe is used. The plasma cosmology

    developed from Bosticks 1950s research on

    experimental plasmoids and their galactic shapes.

    (IV) Electricity clumps. This is why matter exists

    (atoms, ball lightning, stars, particles, maybe even

    electrons).

    (V) Gravity is the clumping of material, and time is the

    rate of change of a characteristic process. Ive wanted the

    idea tested that time and gravity effects occur in

    anomalous plasmoid sites. In 1992, I proposed that

    people try to detect time change in cf experiments. A

    good technique would be to detect light phase shifts (red

    shifts/ blue shifts). Another way would be to use various

    kinds of clocks. Radioactive atoms are a natural clock.

    The problem with understanding what is happening when

    radioactive change is reported as has happened in the past

    in our field is that it is uncertain what exactly is causing

    the radioactivity change. Is it due to isotopic or elemental

    transmutation of atoms or is it due to what can be

    characterized as a change of time?

    IV. SCIENCE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS

    AND VERIFICATIONS

    There has never been a paradigm for the field of

    economics. This is why economists can rarely predict

    events even a few years into the future. What were

    needed were fundamental principles of human activity

    that remained true over hundreds of years. The

    Kondratiev wave was an interesting feature of advanced

    capitalist economies, but Schumpeter and others couldnt identify the cause.

    The cause is the two principles of physics learning

    and technology development that cause paradigm

    changes in physics to follow a 3 generation (80 year)

    periodicity. The Kondratiev wave had a 50 year

    periodicity before 1900 and a 40 year periodicity after

    1900 due to the rapid acceptance and development of the

    Fluid paradigm.

    Based on this model, from 1989 onwards I predicted

    the following events. It is easy to verify that I was

    predicting all this two decades ago.

    1. A physics revolution was imminent unless it already

    had happened. 1905+80=1985. I believed that someone

    was going to formulate a new physics paradigm based on

    the obvious anomalies of the crisis period or that

    someone had recently done so.

    It is clear the cold fusion field didnt die off though it has been popularly declared a hoax. Most of the

    researchers focus on technical applications, but there is

    much evidence that the phenomena falls outside the old

    paradigms box. I believe my basic model serves as a new paradigm.

    2. Technological acceleration would begin about the

    year 2000 with productivity growth rates suddenly

    doubling as happened in 1820 in Britain and 1920 in the

    US. This happened in 1999 or so and surprised many

    economists. But I understood this is what happens in

    industry about 20 years after the end of an industrial

    revolution depression.

    3. Economic boom times similar to the 1920s in the

    US in the 2000s. This happened. Harry Dent predicted

    this also based on demographic principles. His work is

    instructive, but doesnt explain the paradigm change periodicity.

    4. Predicted a financial crash about 2009 like the 1929

    crash in the US and the similar crash in Great Britain

    about 1830. This would be followed by a decade long

    depression period in this decade. This is happening. The

    financial crash happened in 2008. However, there has

    been unprecedented peace time deficit stimulus spending

    and bank lending since 2008. In the US, this is thought to

    amount to 1 or 2 trillion dollars per year, a substantial

    fraction of the GNP. This is keeping the stock market

    high temporarily. However, real unemployment in the US

    as measured in the way it was measured before Clinton is

    still about 15 to 22 percent. The model predicts the rest of

    the decade will experience a depression like the 1930s

    (US) and the 1820s-1840s (Britain and the US) associated

    with high and increasing labor productivity. See the

    economics charts here. Labor productivity growth rates

    will peak and start to decrease long after the depression

    period is over if the past cycles continue.

    5. The major industries of the Plasmoid paradigm

    wont start to form until after 2045 or 2052. (1992 + 60). And the next crisis period will start about 2050. Ive been surprised there is yet no industry arising in this paradigm

    at all. If the timing holds, the theory of this paradigm

    should be well developed by 2032 (1992+40).

    To encourage people, relatively small industries in a

    paradigm have been developed within a few decades after

    a paradigms inception. The telegraph industry of the 1840s that was developed by people who believed in the

    fluid paradigm and the interaction of magnetic and

  • electric fluids and the early nuclear power industries of

    the 1950s are examples.

    Any good theory for economics and scientific

    development will allow for predictions that can be

    verified historically. Thus far, this theory has proved

    correct in its major predictions. No other economic

    theory as far as far I know has this record. In the 1990s,

    long-wave theorists predicted a K-wave dip at the end of

    the century. People I interacted with in the 1990s

    generally dismissed my idea of a Kondratiev trough in the

    2010s.

    V. PHYSICS PREDICTIONS AND VERIFICATIONS

    In my early articles in the early and middle 1990s, I

    was suggesting that people search for plasmoid markings,

    time and gravity change, and superconductivity in their

    experiments. In 1992, I formulated a theory about how

    the formation of plasmoids in electrodes would be

    associated with transmutation phenomena and gravitation

    production.

    1. I predicted approximately micrometer-size ball

    lightning would be commonly found by CF researchers in

    various kinds of devices. Matsumoto was the first to

    produce evidence of plasmoid tracks in nuclear emulsions

    in the 1990s. He described how cells with evidence of

    transmutation also produced such tracks. (Figure 1 and

    many others in Fusion Technology). Then Ken Shoulders

    started to research transmutation (cold fusion

    phenomena). He described that plasmoid strike marks

    evidence transmutation of atomic species[3]. I have tried

    many times to point out how closely many of the

    anomalous markings found by Urutskoev, Savvatimova,

    Adamenko, the SPAWAR group, and the Energetics

    Technologies group look like plasmoid strike marks on

    metals or plasmoid tracks on detection films and witness

    plates as shown by Bostick, Shoulders and Matsumoto.

    However, using such detection films or plates still isnt generally done. But they have been found often enough

    by those who try to detect these markings that I think the

    prediction is verified.

    Ive written about markings on more than ten groups of experiments in picture articles for more than a decade.

    Recently, the Energetics Technologies have published

    some photographs of some craters. I would like to point

    out that the sloshing lips around some of the craters look much like Fig 19. of Ref. 3 by Shoulders where he

    also records the elemental change detected by X-ray

    analysis. I dont understand why his work is relatively unknown or unmentioned.

    2. I predicted that people working with the usual

    electrodes of various metals would find that micrometer-

    sized areas of their electrodes were missing or melted and

    associated with transmutation. This idea originally arose

    from seeing SEM microscope pictures shown by

    Matsumoto, and the detail of apparent melting and

    transmutation species he recorded around the inside of

    the voids. This looks much like the sloshing seen in

    Energetics Technologies recent crater photographs and the sides of Dashs plasmoid trench mark on an electrode that I described many times. I predicted these areas would

    be associated both with superconductivity and time and

    gravity change.

    In the field, it became a common assumption by many

    that micrometer size active areas (as described by Storms) were the loci of the unusual cold fusion-type

    activity. Later, the idea that these areas are Bose Einstein

    Condensates (BECs) (Kim and Miley) with

    superconducting properties was accepted by some. So I

    think this prediction of the early 1990s was verified too.

    From other work, including natural ball lightning

    research and the electrical discharge experiment of

    Zhukov and Egorov[4], I understood that plasmoid

    activity was associated with anomalous activity in this

    regards at lower temperatures than would be expected.

    Ball lightning apparently doesnt bore through materials and make a tunnel by heating it and melting it in the

    conventional sense.

    Only a plasmoid-type theory can probably well explain

    why the plasmoids tend to form geometrical shapes lines, rings, and quadrilateral patterns. For example,

    photo 5 (micro-crater in palladium in SEM images from

    Energetics Technologies, Ltd.) in Duncans ICCF 15 presentation[5] is clear enough to show that the pits were

    formed in a circle: a round plasmoid ring necklace with a central pit. This is a typical plasmoid track pattern seen

    also in Shoulders (Figure 5), Mileys (2 rings in Figure 6 photographed by me), and W. Bosticks experiments as was described in past papers.

    Fig. 5. SEM microscope picture of a ring plasmoid track (pits arranged in a circle). The scale here is 25 micrometers. By Ken Shoulders.

  • Fig. 6. Optical microscope picture taken by me in 1996 of two plasmoid

    ring tracks of pits arranged in a circle. The one on the left shows an inner central pit like the one described above by Energetics

    Technologies. If there is a central pit on the right one, it isnt clear. The markings were pictured and described by me in other articles in the past. They were on microspheres of Ni on Plastic Cell #8, a light water

    electrolysis cell of George Mileys Fusion Studies Laboratory of the U of I.

    3. Any model that is a general physical paradigm has

    to have astronomical predictions. In the early 1990s, I

    predicted that people would increasingly find evidence of

    plasmoid activity in space and on the earth. In particular,

    I predicted toroidal stars matching the shape of toroidal

    ball lightning. That wasnt discovered as far as I know, but what were discovered were solar tornadoes and other

    astronomical anomalies reminding me of plasmoids.

    Some recent astrophysical discoveries about solar tornadoes and sunspots are further confirmation of the plasmoid universe idea. In a paper by Zhukov and

    Egorov[4], they showed a picture of an approximately

    micrometer-size area of an electrode in the process of

    being used for electrical discharge. The ring that appeared

    on the surface of the electrode at below the materials melting point I think was a plasmoid. The ring looks

    much like a sunspot which I think are also plasmoids.

    Would people detect light red shifting or lowering of

    radioactivity rates (signifying time change) or gravity

    production at the points of sunspot, solar tornado, and

    plasmoids found on experiments? Gravity-like effects of tornadoes are natural evidences of gravity production

    in plasmoids. It is known that the solar tornadoes are

    associated with solar flares, and there was some evidence

    of spacecraft radio telemetry light frequency shifting

    occurring during solar flares.

    Another interesting recently discovered natural

    plasmoid phenomena are the balls of light that lead

    lightning strokes as shown in super slow motion videos

    recently taken Tom Warner using new technology. Ken

    Shoulders pointed out to me that these are like the EVs leading electrical discharges in his experiments. Ball

    lightning was leading the natural lightning.

    In general, as far as things have been tested so far, the

    plasmoid model is proving correct in its predictions.

    VI. CONCLUSIONS

    This author hoped to show that predictions based on

    the two models presented herein have been verified as

    far as the passage of history can verify or the

    experimental technique of researchers in the field have

    tried to thus far verify. The two models have remained

    the same for two decades and may serve as the paradigms

    for physics and economics.

    This last point is important to consider, since the

    author is not aware of any models so fundamental and far

    reaching in either field proving to be accurate.

    For more detailed explanations about the models, the

    reader is referred to past papers and my book[2] on my

    website: sciencejunk.org.

    ACKNOWLEDGMENT

    I would like to acknowledge using photographs by

    Matsumoto and Shoulders and of one of Mileys

    experiments in this paper.

    REFERENCES

    [1] T. Matsumoto, Observation of Tiny Ball Lightning During Electrical Discharge in Water, manuscript article, 1994. [2] E. Lewis, The Periodic Production of Rationalized and the

    Past Periodic Depressions, manuscript book, 1990-2012.

    [3] K. Shoulders and S. Shoulders, Observations on the Role of Charge Clusters in Nuclear Cluster Reactions, Journal of New Energy, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1996.

    [4] V. M. Zhukov and N.V. Egorov, Study of the Appearing Rings in the Emission Image of a Field Emission Cathode Prior

    to Explosion, Soviet Phys. Tech. Phys., 36, 353, 1991.

    [5] R. Duncan, An Outsiders View of the Fleischmann-Pons Effect, ICCF15 powerpoint, Italy, 2009.