Laszlo Csicsmann, PhDassistant professor

LIBYA – The Fall of the Qaddhafi-regime

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Introduction

• Population: 6,5 millions • High population density along the coast• Largest cities: Tripoli and Benghazi• Strong tribal affiliation: al-Magarha, Warfalla, etc.• Three parts: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica• Relatively large oil wealth – Sirte basin is the most

important (production: 1,6 millions b/day, 17. largest in the world, 3. in Africa, export 85 % to the EU). 3,3 % of the world oil wealth, 2,2 % of the world’s oil production.

• 75-90 % of the annual revenue comes from oil and gas export

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Period of the monarchy

• 1551 – 1911: part of the Ottoman Empire• 1912 Ottoman-Italian treaty after the war• Importance of the Sanussi Movement against the

Italian occupation (from 1837 in the Hijaz)• In 1929 Italy used the name Libya first• 1942 British and French occupation under military

rule• 1947 – peace treaty with Italy• 1949 – UN resolution – Libya should be an

independent country• 1 January 1951. independence – Sayyid

Muhammed Idris I. – the monarch

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The end of the monarchy

• 1951: constitutional monarchy with . • The ruler is the head of the Sanussi religious

movement and direct descendant of the founder of the movement• Absence of political parties• 1955 – first oil concession• 1959- oil export (Esso)• 1960s growing opposition

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The Qaddhafi regime

• 1 September 1969 – Revolution by the Free Officers Movement ousted the king• Revolutionary Command Council – headed by

Colonel Qaddhafi – promising a radical transformation• Imitation of the Egyptian model (Arab Socialist

Union, 1971-1976)• 1973 – cultural revolution inspired by China• 1976-1978: Green Book – 3 volumes

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The qaddhafi Clan

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Internal politics during the Qaddhafi era

• Cultural revolution = direct participation (ultra-democracy), people’s committees• National level: General People’s Congress• From 1977 revolutionary councils• 1977 – People’s Socialist Arab Jamahiryya• 1981 – growing opposition (National Front for the

Liberation of Libya) – 1984-ben coup attempt, growing Islamist movement

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Foreign Policy of the Qaddhafi era

• 1969 - foreign military bases and military • From 1969 self-defense• Nationalism and Pan Arabism, failed attempts of

Arab • Failed intervention in Chad until 1987• Support of the Palestinian case• International terrorism: 1988 Lockerbie and UTA

plane bombings• From 1992 international sanctions by UN• African orientation – the establishment of the

African Union

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End of sanctions and normalization

• 1999 extradiction of the two terrorist suspects• 2003 – Libya agreed to pay a compensation to

the families of the victims of Lockerbie + end of the WMD program – gradual withdrawal of UN sanctions• 2006 – normalization of US-Libyan relations• Positive economic benefits of normalization• The role of Saif al-Islam al-Qaddhafi• Moderation of Islamists

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What happened in 2011?

• January 2011 – protest starts in Benghazi• The spill over effect of the Egyptian movement • Uprising from 15 February and later civil war • Qaddhafi and Saif al-Islam speeches • The role of the international community• UN SC 1970 and 1973 (17 March)• 19 March start of the implementation of the no-fly

zone coordinated by NATO, today 17 countries participate in the bombings

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The Transitional National Council

• 81 countries recognized as the legitim government of Libya

• 27 February 2011 foundation in Benghazi

• Mahmoud Jibril de facto prime minister from 23 March 2011 (technocrat served under Qaddhafi)

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Division within TNC

• Main goal: topple of the Qaddhafi regime• In the beginning the aim of the TNC was to

coordinate the rebel forces and they had no vision how to shape the future

• Ideological division within TNC members• Political Islam is significant among rebels (Libyan

Islamic Fighting Group, renamed: Libyan Islamic Movement) – presence of al-Qaeda?

• Some members of the TNC are former member of the Qaddhafi regime: Mustafa Abdul Jalil – former minister of justice (currently serves as the chairman of TNC),

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Constitutional Declaration and the Future

• TNC represent mainly the Eastern part of the country, in Misrata protests against TNC• 3 August – constitutional declaration – a

constitution for the transitional period (Islam is the principle source of legislation)• New constitution within 3 months after plebiscite,

presidential elections • No member of the TNC can run for future political

positions• Monarchy or republic?

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Main Challenges

• 21 August - The battle for Tripoli – 4 cities remain under Qaddhafi control (Bani Walid, Sirte, Sabha, Jufra )• Where is Qaddhafi? ICC arrest warrant against

Moammer al-Qaddhafi, Saif al-Islam al-Qaddhafi and Abdullah al-Sanussi • Preserve the territorial integrity of Libya and

achieve political stability (Iraq, Somalia)• Start of the oil production• Solve the refugee question (1 millions – Egypt,

Tunisia + IDPs)

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LIBYA in September 2011

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