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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics Paul Morrison. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth. Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Sun. Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics
Paul Morrison
Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth
Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth
Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Sun
Sometimes politicians don’t tell the complete truth
Sometimes you can’t believe what you read in the Methodist
Recorder
Cameron pledges to tu
rn
round 120,000 'troubled'
families – Te
legraph
Almost 1.5million Britons
have never done a day’s work
in their lives. – Mail
Revealed: How 1.4 million
spent a decade on the dole
under Labour - Mail
Misleading
Britain hit by £10bn tax credit
fraudsters, claims Duncan
Smith - Telegraph
Report reveals 120,000
problem households:
Criminal cultu
re at the heart
of feckless familie
s':
Shocking report l
ifts lid
on
incest, abuse and spira
l of
alcohol abuse - Mail
Meet the families where no
one's worked for THREE
generations - and they don't
care - Mail
Lies
Statisticians are nice people who tell the
truth
Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into
the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics
Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into
the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics
• Make misleading headlines of your own
Aims• Evaluate statistics used in public debate• Understand the process by which they get into
the public debate• Source and use for national or local statistics
• Make misleading headlines of your own• Make you really angry – If there is time
Plan• Suggest how you could use stats• Go through some examples• Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School?
• The worst use of stats I have ever seen
Death & Taxes
Death & TaxesUnderstand
Death & TaxesUnderstand
Describe
Death & TaxesUnderstand
Describe
Convince
UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote
experience
UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote
experience
belief
UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote
experience
numbersbelief
UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote
experience
numbersbelief
scale conflict
reliability
UnderstandingUnderstandanecdote
experience
numbersbelief
scale conflict
reliability
• Why are you looking?
• Can you reconcile the “soft” and “hard” evidence?
DescribingUnderstand
Describe
Describing
Describe
selective process
Describing
Describe
narrative
selective process
Describing
Describe
narrative
stats to reinforce
selective process
Describing
Describe
narrative “forget” other evidence
stats to reinforce
Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence?selective process
Describing
Describe
narrative “forget” other evidence
stats to reinforce
selective process
Describing
Describe
narrative “forget” other evidence
stats to reinforce
Does the narrative fit the “hard” evidence?selective process
Persuading
Convince
Persuading
Convince
most selective process
where stats are most abused
Persuading
Convince
most selective process
where stats are most abused
snappy & accurate is difficult
Persuading
Convince
most selective process
where stats are most abused
snappy & accurate is difficult
the link between what was counted and the number is often broken
Persuading
Convince
most selective process
where stats are most abused
snappy & accurate is difficult
the link between what was counted and the number is often broken
Does it illuminate or obscure the truth?
Plan• Suggest how you could use stats• Go through some examples• Your turn: Save Barnes Nursery School?
• The worst use of stats I have ever seen
Barnes Nursery School• Closure is announced – 2 years time• Your Sunday School Teacher
• Starts a petition • asks you & your church to join in the
campaign.
Barnes Nursery School“After widespread consultation the Richmond Council has decide that BNS should not take further pupils from Oct 2014.....other providers will give the same level of service allowing the closure of BNS with its saving of and a saving of £0.4 million annually.......nursery schooling will remain available to the children of Barnes and existing pupils will not be affected....
Barnes Nursery SchoolGet into Church councils of 5-6 and decide what you do you do next?
What information do you want to help you make the decision?
- I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)
Barnes Nursery SchoolWhat do you do next?What information do you want?
- I should be able to provide (and if I don’t in the grand tradition of the DWP I will make up something plausible)
Barnes Nursery SchoolHalf of the church councils support the closureHalf want it open.
You need to explain your decision to the church as a whole what new information do you want?
Barnes Nursery SchoolYou need to explain to the press in a few lines your position.
- use an honest stat if you can- a dodgy but defendable one would do aswell
Sources of InformationLocal:Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version
Local Authority Website:budgets, local area plans and demographics
Office of National Statistics:http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/
Sources of InformationNational:Methodist Advanced Mapping tool: http://www.methodist.org.uk/links/church-webmap-advanced-version
Office of National Statistics:http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/
Department of Work and Pensions: http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=statistics
Institute for Fiscal Studies: www.ifs.org.uk
Sources of InformationNational:
Find a trusted interest group / think-tank:For Poverty: Joseph Rowntree Foundation
www.jrf.org.uk
Resolution Foundation www.resolutionfoundation.org/
Children’s Societywww.childrensociety.org.uk
Centre for Social Justice – influential but.........
“The lies we tell ourselves: Ending Comfortable Myths
About Poverty”Baptist Union of Great Britain
Church of ScotlandMethodist Church
United Reformed Church
GETTING YOU ANGRY
• no parent in the family is in work• family lives in overcrowded housing• no parent has any qualifications• mother has mental health problems• at least one parent has a long-standing disability• family has low income• family cannot afford some basics
Think of a family with five of these problems
GETTING YOU ANGRY
• no parent in the family is in work• family lives in overcrowded housing• no parent has any qualifications• mother has mental health problems• at least one parent has a long-standing disability• family has low income• family cannot afford some basics
Think of a family with five of these problems
• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,
GETTING YOU ANGRY
• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,
David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror
GETTING YOU ANGRY
• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,
It's time problem families took the blame: Pickles calls for tougher action on those who blame background and childhood for their troubles – Daily Mail
David Cameron pledges to turn round lives of 120,000 problem families in wake of UK riots - Mirror
GETTING YOU ANGRY
• mother has mental health problemsMain characteristic of these families,
SCUM CLANS BLITZ - Daily Star
GETTING YOU ANGRY
“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012
16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000
The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking
GETTING YOU LIVID?
“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012
16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000
“Child Abuse Rife in Hell Families – report exposes 120,000 worst households” - The Sun
The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking
GETTING YOU LIVID?
“Listening to Troubled Families” – Report published July 2012
16 selected Case Studies – completely unrepresentative of the 120,000
“Child Abuse Rife in Hell Families – report exposes 120,000 worst households” - The Sun
The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse [and sometimes child rape[1]] was striking and shocking
The most commonly quote:“The prevalence of child sexual and physical abuse and sometimes child rape was striking and shocking”
GETTING YOU LIVID?
“The lies we tell ourselves: Ending Comfortable Myths
About Poverty”Baptist Union of Great Britain
Church of ScotlandMethodist Church
United Reformed Church
Justice is turned back, and righteousness stands far off. For truth has stumbled in the public square, and honesty cannot enter.
Isaiah 59 v14