Lifelong Learning Statistics User DayWidening Participation Workshop

26th March 2010

Jeanette Hagerstrom Carolyn Fishman Andrew Walker

General• The link between educational attainment and

poverty in the UK and elsewhere has been clearly demonstrated

• There is a disproportionately small participation by lower socio-economic groups in all OECD countries who attend HE

• Access to HE continues to be divided on socio economic grounds. Universities are both receivers and creators of social advantage.

Prior attainment• when controlling for prior attainment in school

students from advantaged and disadvantaged backgrounds have very similar participation rates in HE

• the main obstacle for pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds is that they do not get the same school results to the same extent as their more advantaged peers.

Early years, attitudes, motivation, and age• the more positive the attitude towards school, the more

likely it is that a young person intends to apply to university

• for many young people the curriculum, qualifications system and associated teaching styles are not suitable

• students/ young people from more disadvantaged backgrounds also tend to express concerns about their self confidence/ esteem and ability to ‘fit in’ in HE

• those taking alternative routs into and through HE are more likely to be older and come from more deprived areas.

Other issues• generally young people have positive attitudes

to debt in the context of HE. Those less willing to participate in HE have more negative attitudes to debt

• SIED data shows that part time students and mature students have higher debts and expenditure than other students

• while there are benefits of HE for women in the labour market, women are still disadvantaged in terms of pay and career opportunities.

Policy

• The Scottish Government and Scottish Funding Council have a number of policies aimed at widening access and at encouraging non-traditional learners to participate in higher education.

• We currently use the API and those young people entering full-time higher education from deprived areas as a measure of participation from this group.

Policy (2)

• We recognise that many non-traditional learners return to higher education at an older age and many choose part-time study as an alternative mode of participation in higher education.

• We continue to be interested in the movement of young people from deprived areas into higher education but we also need a clear and reliable indicator that gives a more rounded picture of all participation in all modes of higher education

Participation in Higher Education and Widening Access

• Methods behind our published participation analysis and headline results

• Update on our review of participation• Methods and explanation of results of

widening access statistics• Extra analysis linking API to SIMD• Group exercise to let us know what you

think

Current Measures of Participation

• Gross Enrolment

• Age Participation Index (API)

• Alternatives:– OECD Comparison– All Ages All Modes

• Review of Participation Measures

Gross EnrolmentHE Student Figures Population Estimates

Gross EnrolmentHE Student Figures Population Estimates

279,6155,168,500

= 5.4%

Gross EnrolmentGroiss Enrolment of Students in Scotland as a Percentage of the Scottish

Population

4.9%

5.0%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.4%

5.5%

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Academic Year

Per

cen

t o

f S

cott

ish

Po

pu

lati

on

5.14%

5.41%

Increase of 0.27 percentage points

Age Participation Index

• Interest in traditional entrants.

• Projection based on current trends.

• Expected participation of 17 year olds, by the time they are 21.

• Full-time, first degree, Scots entrants.

Age Participation IndexAge Participation Index: 1999-00 to 2007-08

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Academic Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

)

Devolution

54.7%

43.2%

Age Participation Index

Groiss Enrolment of Students in Scotland as a Percentage of the Scottish Population

4.9%

5.0%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.4%

5.5%

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Academic Year

Per

cen

t o

f S

cott

ish

Po

pu

lati

on

Age Participation Index: 1999-00 to 2007-08

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Academic YearP

erc

en

tag

e (

%)

Increasing Enrolments Decreasing API

Age Participation Index

• Full-time enrolments• Under 21 years old• New entrants to HE• Scottish Domiciled

“Traditional”

Age Participation Index: 1999-00 to 2007-08

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Academic YearP

erc

en

tag

e (

%)

Decreasing API

OECD Net Entry Rate

• Entrants to Scottish Institutions• First degree level study• All ages• Full-time and part-time

OECD net entry rates in tertiary education by country (2007)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Austra

lia

Poland

New Z

ealan

d

Slovak

Republic

Icel

and

Swed

en

Finla

nd

Norway

United S

tate

s

Portugal

Hungary

Korea

Netherla

nds

Denm

ark

Scotla

nd

OECD a

vera

ge

United K

ingdom

Czech

Rep

ublic Italy

Japan

Irela

nd

Gre

ece

Austria

Spain

Switz

erland

Ger

man

y

Mex

ico

Belgiu

m

Turkey

country

net

en

try

rate

(%

)

56%57%OECD averageScotland

OECD Net Entry Rate

OECD initial participation rate in degree level study

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008*

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Scottish Institutions

UK Institutions

OECD average

* UK and OECD to be published in Sep 2010

50%

59% 57%

• Designed to provide international comparisons• Is HE provision in other countries like for like?• Scotland is a net importer of students

All Ages All Modes Measure

• Scottish entrants anywhere in the UK• First degree level study• All ages• Full-time and part-time

Initial Entry to Degree Level Courses - All Ages and Modes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Per

cen

t

Scottish students

UK students

All Ages All Modes MeasureInitial Entry to Degree Level Courses - All Ages and Modes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Per

cen

t

Scottish students

UK students

41% 46% 42%

Participation

• Gross Enrolment – easy to calculate and interpret but very general

• API – projection of uptake through traditional route, difficult to interpret and very specific (too specific?)

• OECD Net Entry – useful for international comparisons, though overestimates participation. Are we comparing like with like?

• All Ages All Modes – useful for comparisons to UK wide entry rates

Review of Measures of Participation

• Commissioned research report comprising:– Literature review– Stakeholder consultation– Report and recommendations

• Full report published May/June this year

• Available online and issued through ScotStat register

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/scotstat

Widening Access

• Method behind comparisons of entrants from deprived areas.

• Explanation of published results.

• And a treat! – unpublished results looking at which entrant groups are least represented in higher education.

Widening Access

• Generally entrants from disadvantaged backgrounds

• For SG this means 20% most deprived areas of Scotland

• Deprivation levels determined by SIMD

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)

• Splits Scotland into 6,505 datazones• Datazone median population of 767• Deprivation index based on employment, income, health,

education, access to services and crime.• Employment and income have greatest weight

www.sns.gov.uk

Widening Access

Non-deprived6,505 datazones

20% lowest ranks

are 0001 to 1301

Student Records Postcode Files

SIMD Database

About 2% of records can’t be matched by postcodes – these are excluded

Widening AccessScottish domiciled entrants from deprived areas to higher education in the UK by institution type: 2008-09

Type of InstitutionAll

entrants

A - Percentage of entrants from

deprived areas

B - Percentage of total

population in deprived areas

C - Percentage of working age

population in deprived areas

Percentage point (pp)

difference at institutions (A -

B)

Percentage point (pp)

difference at institutions (A -

C)

Colleges 35,685 21.7% 19.2% 19.0% 2.5 2.7

Ancient Universities 17,330 7.8% 19.2% 19.0% -11.4 -11.2

Newer Universities 14,935 11.0% 19.2% 19.0% -8.2 -8.0

Post-92 Universities 32,755 14.7% 19.2% 19.0% -4.5 -4.3

Specialised HEIs 970 6.6% 19.2% 19.0% -12.6 -12.4

Open University 8,145 14.0% 19.2% 19.0% -5.2 -5.0

          0.0

Universities outside Scotland 5,885 7.4% 19.2% 19.0% -11.8 -11.6

All entrants115,70

5 14.9% 19.2% 19.0% -4.3 -4.1

             

14.9% - 19.0%

= - 4.1

Widening AccessScottish domiciled entrants from Deprived Areas to Higher Education in the UK by institution type and academic year: 2001-02 to 2008-09

Percentage of HE entrants from deprived areas

Type of Institution2001-

022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

09

A - All entrants from deprived areas 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8% 14.9%

                 

B - % of Scottish population living in deprived areas

20.4% 20.2% 20.0% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6% 19.3% 19.2%

                 

C - % of Scottish working age population living in deprived areas

19.8% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% 19.4% 19.4% 19.0% 19.0%

                 

Under-representation of total population from deprived areas (A - B)

-6.4 -6.0 -5.7 -5.0 -4.7 -4.6 -4.5 -4.3

                 

Under-representation of working age population from deprived areas (A - C)

-5.8 -5.4 -5.3 -4.6 -4.4 -4.4 -4.2 -4.1

Under representation

Widening AccessUnder representation of Scottish entrants from deprived areas: 2001-02 to

2008-09

-4.3

-6.4

-4.1

-5.8

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Academic Year

Un

de

r R

ep

res

en

tati

on

(p

erc

en

tag

e p

oin

t d

iffe

ren

ce

)

Under-representation oftotal population fromdeprived areas

Under-representation ofworking age populationfrom deprived areas

Widening AccessScottish domiciled entrants from Deprived Areas to Higher Education in the UK by institution type and academic year: 2001-02 to 2008-09

Percentage of HE entrants from deprived areas

Type of Institution2001-

022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

09

A - All entrants from deprived areas 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8% 14.9%

                 

B - % of Scottish population living in deprived areas

20.4% 20.2% 20.0% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6% 19.3% 19.2%

                 

C - % of Scottish working age population living in deprived areas

19.8% 19.6% 19.5% 19.5% 19.4% 19.4% 19.0% 19.0%

                 

Under-representation of total population from deprived areas (A - B)

-6.4 -6.0 -5.7 -5.0 -4.7 -4.6 -4.5 -4.3

                 

Under-representation of working age population from deprived areas (A - C)

-5.8 -5.4 -5.3 -4.6 -4.4 -4.4 -4.2 -4.1

Under representation

Pop

ulat

ion

Entrants

Widening AccessScottish domiciled HE entrants from deprived areas and working age

population from deprived areas: 2001-02 to 2008-09

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Academic Year

Per

cen

tag

e (%

)

% of Scottishworking agepopulation living indeprived areas

All entrants fromdeprived areas

gap = 5.8 percentage points

gap = 4.1 percentage points

Widening Access

• Are entrants from deprived areas under represented equally across all learner types?

• Are all deprived areas equal?

• Initially looked at entrants from the traditional group – using API and SIMD…

Widening AccessProportion of Young People Participating in Full Time Higher Education in 2007/08 by SIMD Vigintile

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Deprivation Vigintile (1-High to 20-Low)

Pa

rtic

ipa

tion

in H

igh

er

Ed

uca

tion

Widening Access Group

20% most deprived areas

Widening AccessProportion of Young People from Deprived Areas Participating in Full Time Higher Education in 2007/08 by Local Authority

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Local Authority

Part

icip

atio

n in

Hig

her

Educatio

n

Widening Access

Proportion of Young People from Deprived Areas Participating in Full Time Higher Education in 2007/08 by Institution

Area % of Young People entering Full Time HE in 2007/08

Deprived area doing Full Time HE at a College15.3

Deprived area doing Full Time HE at a University10.6

Non-Deprived area doing Full Time HE at a College15.1

Non-Deprived area doing Full Time HE at a University

33.6

Widening Access

• Are entrants from deprived areas under represented equally across all learner types?

• Are all deprived areas equal?

• Initially looked at entrants from the traditional group – using API and SIMD

• What about other entrants?

Widening AccessProportion of Older Students Entering Full Time Higher Education in 2007/08 by Deprived Area

Area % of Older Students doing Full-Time HE % of Scotland’s Population

From a Deprived Area

25.1 19.3

From a Non-Deprived Area

74.9 80.7

25.1% – 19.3%

= 5.8 (Over represented)

Widening AccessProportion of Students Entering Part Time Higher Education in 2007/08 by Deprived Area

Area % of Students doing Part-Time HE % of Scotland’s Population

From a Deprived Area 17.3 19.3

From a Non-Deprived Area 82.7 80.7

17.3% – 19.3%

= -2.0 (Slight under representation)

Widening AccessProportion of Older and Part-time Entrants to Higher Education in 2007/08 by Deprived Area

Area % of older and part-time entrants % of Scotland’s Population

From a Deprived Area 19.5 19.3

From a Non-Deprived Area 80.5 80.7

19.5% - 19.3%

= 0.2 (Pretty close!)

Widening Access

• Under representation of deprived areas• Value of colleges in these areas• Young people from deprived areas half as likely

to participate in full-time study• Variable by local authority• Over representation of older learners from

deprived areas• Only slight under representation of part-time

learners• Almost equal representation of older and part-

time learners (when taken together)

Questions?

Contacts:

Jeanette Hagerstrom, Lifelong Learning ResearchJeanette.Hagerstrom@Scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Carolyn Fishman, Higher Education and LearnerSupport Policy Carolyn.Fishman@Scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Andrew Walker, Lifelong Learning Statistics,Andrew.Walker@Scotland.gsi.gov.uk Telephone: 0300 244 6774

Group Discussion

• What does Participation/Widening Access mean to you?

• What do you want from measures of participation? (are you interested in the widening access group?)

• How would you assess our current statistics?

• Suggestions on how we can meet your needs for reporting on participation.

Useful LinksLifelong Learning topic page:www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Education/Life-Long-Learning

Lifelong Learning Research:www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/education-and-training

Lifelong Learning Statisticswww.scotland.gov.uk/llstatistics

Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS)www.sns.gov.uk

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivationwww.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/SIMD

ScotStatwww.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/scotstat