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Lightweight Options and Forecast of Material Types
April 19, 2016
Global snapshot of lightweight solutions
Presented by Vishwas Shankar
FROST & SULLIVAN
2
OEMs Identify 350 Kg Weight Reduction (20%) Opportunity Global OEMs have identified to lose upto 350 kg depending on the model, segment, brand of the vehicle—en route to achieve the desired 2020 CO2 emission / 2025 CAFE targets.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Ford
VW
BMW
Hyundai
Weight Reduction (Kg)
OEM
Gro
ups
3-Series 5-Series X5
Golf 7 Touareg
F-150
Elantra Santa Fe
Focus
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Automotive OEMs Identify Up to 350 Kg Weight Reduction, Global, 2013–2020
3
50 years of Weight Trends – Global Best Selling OEM Models 1 in 2 OEMs reduced weight of their best selling model in fleet globally in the last generation.
953
1,022
1,073 1,089
1,035 982
1,042 1,048
1,153
1,065 1,060 1,134
1,197
1,182
720 730
880 855
1,047
1,086 1,052
1,095 1,095
1,300
1,240
1,292 1,328
1,353
1,442 1,409
1,120
1,506
1,434 1,455
1,500
1,524
915 940
1,130
1,210
1,510 1,567
1,310
1,380
1,491 1,537
1,074
1,188 1,190
1,407
700
1,600
1966 2012
Cur
b W
eigh
t of V
ehic
le (k
g)
Year
Automotive Best Seller Model Generations Vs. Weight Reduction, Global, 1966–2013
BMW 3 Series
Chrysler 200
Nissan Altima
Chevrolet Cruze
Ford Focus
Honda Civic
Hyundai Accent
Note: Models that lost weight in the last generation
Toyota Corolla
VW Passat
Sub 1,000 kg Best Sellers
Source: Frost & Sullivan
4
0.0 30.0 60.0 90.0 120.0 150.0
Key Automotive Components Weight Reduction Potential, Global, 2015 Increase in Weight (kg)
Decrease in Weight (kg)
Decrease in Vehicle Cost ($)
(15.0)
(13.0)
(11.0)
(9.0)
(7.0)
(5.0)
(3.0)
(1.0)
1.0
(150.0) (120.0) (90.0) (60.0) (30.0) 0.0
Weight reduction combined with vehicle cost reduction potential
Weight reduction combined with vehicle cost impact potential
C1
C18
C17 C16
C13
C14
C12
C15
Source: ICCT Working Paper 2013; Frost & Sullivan
C2
C3
C5
C6 C7
C4
C8
C9
c10
Increase in Vehicle Cost ($)
(30.0) C11 C19
Vehicle/System Weight Reduction Offers Cost Savings Opportunity Also Potential opportunity to reduce costs along with saving weight (about $0.5 per kg weight reduction)
5
Material Substitution Economics—Weight Savings versus Cost Impact Leading up to 2020, Steel has a bigger role to play, Al continues to find more acceptance than before in the short term, CFRP seen as a more sustainable mass production solution in the long term.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
*Rel
ativ
e C
ost (
Tim
es O
ver t
he O
rigin
al C
ost)
Weight Reduction Potential
MSHSS
CSSS
AlMg MSFRP:GF
MSCFRP
Alloy SteelTi
MS/CIAl
MS/CIAl Comp MS/CIMg
Upto 10 Upto 10 Upto 3
Source: William F. Powers; Advanced Materials and Processes 2012); Frost & Sullivan
Automotive Material Choices Based on Weight Savings and Cost Impact, Global, 2016
Steel still has market potential as it can offer further 10-45% weight reduction given the current cost structure.
Growing interest in Al as a lightweight replacement in the mid term.
CFRP’s real potential could be seen in the long term.
PP—CFRP
5.3
Al—CFRP
5.4
Note: *Includes both materials and manufacturing.
6
Automotive Material Demand, Global, 2016-2020
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Current(2016-2017)
Future (2018-2020)
Dem
and
(mtp
a)
Year/Period
Others*
Plastic
Aluminum
Iron
Steel
Key: MTPA - Million Tons Per Annum Note: *Others include rubber, seals, glass, Cu and zinc.
Reduction Increase
Availability of and Demand for Steel Force OEMs to Rethink Strategy Iron and steel automotive requirements expected to still remain 65% total demand for materials. Al, plastics expected to grow by 2020.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
65%
7
Efficient, Sensitive, and Convenient Materials—Key to Lightweighting Aluminum in a Multimaterial Strategy: Although steel remains the primary material choice for automotive applications, aluminum adoption is increasing.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
Steel Al Mg CFRP Ti
Aluminum in Passenger Vehicles: Multimaterial Strategy, Global, 2010, 2012, and 2015
Steel/ Iron
70.7%
Aluminum 9.2%
Plastic 8.4%
Others 11.6%
Material Demand, 2010
Steel has been the most popular and accepted material
for more than a century.
Lightweight Options Over Steel, 2015
Pric
e pe
r Ton
($)
Aluminum is closest to steel in price; use of aluminum alloys is becoming widely accepted.
Raw Material
0
2
4
6
8
CFRP Mg Al Ti Steel
Den
sity
(g/c
c)
Raw Material
Key Raw Material Prices, 2012
CFRP is best for density but not yet price as mass-production
applications are limited.
Changing Material
Availability
Changing Material
Economics
Changing Material
Sustainability Convenience Sensitivity
Efficiency
Which material is best for long-term
sustainability?
Recent evidence indicates strong
interest in aluminum as the
material choice in hybrid
construction. Key: CFRP—Carbon Fiber-reinforced Plastic; Al—Aluminum; Mg—Magnesium; Ti—Titanium.
8
Region North America Europe Asia-Pacific
Focus Area NA OEM1
NA OEM2
NA OEM3
EU OEM1
EU OEM2
EU OEM3
EU OEM4
EU OEM5
APAC OEM1
APAC OEM2
APAC OEM3
APAC OEM4
Body Key Structures
Steel / CFRP Steel Steel Steel /
CFRP CFRP CFRP Steel Steel Steel Steel
Body Key Panels Steel /
CFRP CFRP Steel CFRP Steel / Al CFRP CFRP
Body Key FEMs Steel Steel Steel Steel Al /
CFRP
Small Body Parts (other) Mg Al Al Mg Al Al Al / Mg Al Mg / Al Al / Mg Mg
Powertrain Al Al Al / Mg Mg Mg Mg / Al Al / Mg Mg / Al Al
Chassis Steel / Mg Al Steel / Al
/ Mg CFRP Mg Mg Steel Al
Interiors CFRP CFRP Mg CFRP CFRP Mg
Key Focus Areas and Materials Choice by Automotive OEMs, Global, 2013–2020
Strong Existing Pattern
Key Focus Areas and Lightweight Replacements of Key Global OEMs Advanced grades of steel comprise the preferred choice for key BIW structures; CFRP is the preference for BIW panels, Al for small BIW parts and Powertrain; Mg for Chassis; and CFRP for Interiors by 2020.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Aluminum Usage Trends in Current-generation Vehicles Wide spread Aluminium usage in more chassis components, small body parts and powertrain components, electrical distribution systems, bumper systems, and even seat frames.
Aluminum in Passenger Vehicles Usage Trends, Global, 2015
Electrical Distribution Systems
Engine Blocks
Brake Components
Engine Subframes
Heat Exchangers Seat Frames
Body Structure and Components
Driveshafts
Suspension Subframes
Windshield Surround Structures
Air Compressor Pistons
Bumper Systems
Wheels
Exterior Closure Panels
Steering Frames and Columns
Suspension Components
Body Key: Powertrain Chassis Others
10
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Material Intensity Vehicle Matrix The Audi A4 and Ford F-150 are expected to set benchmarks for aluminum usage in future.
Aluminum in Passenger Vehicles: Material Intensity Vehicle Matrix, Global, 2015–2025
Steel Aluminum CFRP Steel Aluminum CFRP Steel Aluminum CFRP
Best in Class BMW Audi, Tesla - D-Midsize D-Midsize - 3-Series
A4, Model S, Model X,
F-150 -
High Honda Ford VW C-Compact Pickup C-Compact Insight F-150 Golf
Moderate GM - Honda C-Compact - C-Compact ATS - Insight
Steel Aluminum CFRP Steel Aluminum CFRP Steel Aluminum CFRP
Best in Class
GM Honda
Audi, Tesla, Ford
BMW C-Compact
D-Midsize, SUV, Pickup SUV ATS
Insight
A4,Model X, Model S,
F-150, F-250 X5
High - - VW - Pickup C-Compact - Explorer, Ranger
(high-end) Golf
Moderate Audi - Ford G-Sports - C-Compact TT - Focus
OEMs
Cur
rent
Fu
ture
(B
eyon
d 20
20)
Segments Models
11
Evo
Ligh
t Pa
ckag
e In
no L
ight
Pa
ckag
e R
evo
Ligh
t Pa
ckag
e
17-23%
Conventional Steel Al Mg Plastics CFRP
X X
Others* New Steel Grades
20-25%
35-40%
Automotive Lightweighting: Lightweight Packages, Global, 2025
Note: High Content Low Content
Key Material
Key Material
Key Material
*Others include rubber and glass.
Lightweight Packages Creates Different Business Opportunities Multiple packages within a particular brand could create a much-needed competitive advantage and attract large number of end customers as well as those looking for a product differentiation.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
12
Next-generation
Steel
Al
Mg
CFRP
Automotive Lightweighting: Partnerships are Key to Substitution, Global, 2015
All global mass market OEMs target the vehicle body structures first, followed by panels, and front/rear end modules with next-generation steel.
Since 2008, extensive new focus areas for Al are BIW and powertrain for all premium market OEMs, including some mass market OEMs.
A few global mass market OEMs have made recent advancements in mass-produced Mg processing and joining/manufacturing technologies.
10 to 12 OEMs have partnered with key global suppliers to introduce mass-production and use CFRP in next-generation cars.
Current Global Excitement Among OEMs
OEM
s M
ater
ial a
nd M
anuf
actu
ring
Kno
w-H
ow
Low
High
High Low Focus Areas
Materials
New Material/Joining Partnerships are Key to Material Substitution Global mass market OEMs target vehicle body structures first, followed by panels; front/rear end modules and chassis parts are also on their radar.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
13
P
A
P
M S
C
S
A
s
M C
P
M
A
M
C S
P
A
C
A
M S
P
C
A
C
M S
P T
2,6, 7
2,3,7
2, 3
KEY
1 Welding 2 Fasteners 3 Adhesives 4 Heat Sealing 5 Tongue & Groove 6 Collar joining 7 Sandwich T To be identified
S Steel P Plastic C CFRP A Aluminum M Magnesium
3
4
1
2,3,7
1
1
3
2,6,7
1
1,2,3
1
5
1
1
2
3
T
3
6
1,2,4
5
Automotive Lightweighting: Vehicle Components Joining Technologies, Global, 2012–2020
Current Focus
Future Focus
Automotive Materials Joining Technologies—Current and Future Focus Steel or CFRP are the center of focus, and steel-CFRP joining is attracting research as is Al-Al, Al-CFRP and plastic-plastic joining.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Current Focus
14
12. Fabric body panels (40-80 kg) 13. Al wires instead of Cu
10. GFRP springs in brakes (6 kg)
15. Use of plastic in wheels (12 kg) 14. Polycarbonate to replace glass (50%)
1. Use of shape memory alloy (SMA) trunk opening mechanism
11. CFRP body panels acts as battery (15%)
3. New plastics in seat recliner (Golf) (7 kg)
16. Use folding bikes made of CFRP (instead of spare wheels)
7. Three layer dash insulation solution: lightweight foams as key (3-4 kg)
5. Planar speaker technology (magnets); fabric covers (bowls)
2.“Evolution seats” (10 kg)
9. Fiber composites in tires
*Replacing wires with light beams
4. Airbag inflator (25%) lighter
6. Wiper blades with holes (2 kg)
Automotive Lightweighting: Revolutionary Effort in Lightweighting, Global, 2012–2020
OEMs 1. GM 3. VW 10. BMW 11. Volvo 12. BMW, Lotus 13. BMW 14. Fiat, Ford 15. Daimler 16. VW
Tier I 2. Lear 4. TRW 5. JBL, Harman 6. Valeo 7. Faurecia 8. Broadcom 9. Michelin 15. BASF
* TBA – To be Announced
8. Ethernet-based communication solution; reduces wiring complexity
Revolutionary Effort in Lightweighting—Out-of-the-box Thinking OEMs and suppliers are moving towards solutions including plastic wheels, Al instead of Cu in wiring harness, fabric body panels, and composites in tires are expected in future production models.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
15
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Advantages Offered by Key Materials Continue to be Re-evaluated Commercial and technical advantages of aluminum versus next generation steel, CFRP continue to be re-evaluated with every new model/existing model generation change.
Aluminum in Passenger Vehicles: Material Advantages, Global, 2015 1 2 3 4 5
Raw Material Availability
Raw Material Price (Comparative)
Effort Required to Manufacture
Production Friendliness
Application in Different Functional Areas
Ability to be Joined with Any Other Material
Low High
Mild Steel HSS CFRP Mg Plastics Al
Current Solutions Alternative Solutions
Aluminum availability among alternative solutions is better than CFRP and comparable to plastics and magnesium.
Certain grades of aluminum are becoming less expensive.
Similar to plastics, aluminum requires less manufacturing effort (comparable to steel).
Aluminum is as production- friendly as mild steel and HSS.
Aluminum is ahead of all other materials.
Aluminum is seen as a strategic material choice because it is easy to join with another aluminum, steel, or plastic component.
16
Thank You!
Vishwas Shankar Research Manager - Business Strategy & Innovation Mobility P: +1 248 536 2004 [email protected]
www.frost.com/mobility