Upload
sally
View
66
Download
4
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Enhancing Campus Retention Studies: Predicting 4- and 6-Year Degree Attainment with Institutional and Freshman Survey Data. Linda DeAngelo CIRP Assistant Director for Research. Overview of Presentation. Review findings from recent study on retention rates at the national level - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Enhancing Campus Retention Studies: Predicting 4- and 6-Year
Degree Attainment with Institutional and Freshman Survey Data
Linda DeAngeloCIRP Assistant Director for Research
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Overview of Presentation Review findings from recent study on
retention rates at the national level Discuss how institutional data and data from a
freshman survey such as CIRP’s Freshman Survey can be used to predict retention at the institutional level
Demonstrate how an institution can use the formulas created at HERI to compute expected retention in order to gauge the effectiveness of their retention programs
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
The National Study of Retention
Data: 1994 CIRP Freshman Survey and degree completion data provided on 4- and 6-year completers provided by registrars offices
262 baccalaureate-granting institutions 56,818 students – full-time, first-time
freshman in 1994 Weighted data to represent national norms
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Purpose of Study Determine degree completion rates by
gender, race/ethnicity, and institutional type Identify entering student characteristics that
predict degree completion Develop formulas that individual institutions
can use to compute “expected” retention rates
Examine results for 4- and 6-year completers and for those still enrolled after 6 years
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Major Finding from Study Nationally, time to degree has increased
Results: 36% graduated within four years in this study. In 1989 a decade earlier, 40% graduated within four years, and in the late 60s, 47% graduated within four years
Six-year graduation rate in this study is 59% and this increases to 62% if you count those still enrolled after 6 years as retained
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Effects of Institutional Type on Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Type4 Years 6 Years 6+ Years
Public Universities 28% 58% 62%Private Universities 67% 80% 80%Public 4-Year Colleges 24% 47% 52%Nonsec 4-Year Colleges 58% 67% 68%Catholic 4-Year Colleges 46% 60% 62%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Data suggests that attending public institutions not only lowers the chances that a student will complete a degree, but prolongs time to degree
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Effects of Gender On RetentionFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Gender
Men Women Total4 Years 33% 40% 36%6 Years 55% 60% 58%6+ Years 59% 62% 61%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Greatest gender gap occurs at 4 years (7%); reduces to 3% when you take into account students still enrolled after 6 years
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Effects of Race/Ethnicity on RetentionFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
4 Years 6 Years 6+ YearsWhite 38% 58% 62%African American 23% 46% 49%American Indian 21% 42% 46%Asian American 39% 65% 69%Mexican American 21% 46% 53%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Data suggests that the same factors that contribute to low college attendance rates and low retention rates among URM students may also be prolonging time to degree
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Institutional Type on Retention
6-Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and TypePublicUniversity
Public4-Year
Private University
Nonsec4-Year
Catholic 4-Year
White 59% 49% 80% 68% 64%African American 45% 41% 73% 50% 48%
American Indian 44% 37% 72% 56% 32%
Asian American 65% 51% 87% 76% 58%
Mexican American 40% 38% 68% 62% 30%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Did you know? – Two-thirds of the variation among institutions in their
degree completion rates is attributable to differences in their entering classes
rather than to differences in the effectiveness of their undergraduate
retention programs
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Our data suggests that it is unwise, and possibly misleading, to compare the
raw degree completion rates of different institutions without first taking
into account the level of academic preparation of each institution’s students when they first enroll
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Changes in Retention When Student Characteristics at Entry are Used
Example – Although the 4-year degree attainment rates at private universities are more than 40% higher than those at
public colleges, this difference diminishes to approximately 15% when expected degree attainment rates are
taken into account
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Retention by High School GradesFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by HS GradesHS Grades 4 Years 6 Years 6+ YearsA, A+ 58% 78% 79%A- 47% 68% 70%B+ 35% 59% 62%B 25% 48% 52%B- 19% 39% 44%C+ 15% 33% 37%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Data clearly indicated that HS grades are a major determinant of college completion at 4, 6, and 6+ years
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Retention by SAT Comp ScoreFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by SAT ScoreSAT Score 4 Years 6 Years 6+ Years1300+ 62% 77% 78%1200-1299 55% 73% 75%1100-1199 48% 68% 70%1000-1099 40% 63% 66%900-999 30% 52% 56%
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Data indicates that the college completion gap between test scores narrows as time to degree increases
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Retention by HS GPA and SAT CompFour-Year Degree Attainment by HS GPA and SAT Comp
SAT Comp ScoresHS Grades
900 - 999
1000 - 1099
1100 - 1199
1200 - 1299
1300+
A, A+ 42% 54% 60% 63% 69%A- 41% 46% 52% 61% 61%B+ 33% 39% 42% 48% 51%B 23% 33% 34% 28% 36%B- 18% 25% 29% 32% 15%C+ 15% 16% 20% 12% cell too small
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Predicting Expected Retention:Institutional or CIRP Variables
Variables Used: Average HS GPA, SAT COMP, Gender, Race/Ethnicity
All are variables that the large majority of institutions already have available for analysis
These variables are also available on The Freshman Survey from CIRP at HERI
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations:
Institutional or CIRP VariablesHS GPA HS GPA
SAT COMPHS GPA
SAT COMPGender
HS GPA SAT COMP
GenderRace/Ethnicity
.3084 .3486 .3559 .3601
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Factors beyond High School GPA add slightly more than 5% to the variance accounted for in predicting retention
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator:
Institutional or CIRP Variables
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Predicting Expected Retention: If You Use CIRP Freshman Survey Substantially improves prediction of
degree completion over what was possible using only high school grades, test scores, gender, and race/ethnicity
Prediction now includes measures of SES, info about financial aid, activities as HS seniors, reasons for attending college, goals, likely college activities, major, and environmental factors
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations:
For Users of CIRP Freshman SurveyAll Inputs With SAT Scores
All Inputs Environments
With SAT
All Inputs Without SAT
Scores
All Inputs Environments Without SAT
.473 .515 .460 .506
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
With all input factors, SAT Comp adds very little to the variance accounted for in predicting retention
Most of the variance is accounted for by the effects of entering students rather than differential institutional effects
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator:
With All CIRP Available Variables
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Conclusions Even students who come to college well
prepared academically are less likely to persist to degree today than in the past
Calls for accountability that require the reporting of “raw” rates of retention actually harm, rather than enhance, the incentive for institutions to admit and educate underprepared students
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Conclusions, Continued Institutions can be more accountable for their
effectiveness when they take into account the characteristics of the students they enroll
Institutions who participate in the CIRP Freshman Survey can predict more precise measures of expected retention
Having more precise measures of expected retention enhances institutional, system, and state level policy and practice
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles
Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA
Return to contents
Question and Discussion Period For more information visit HERI at
www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri The report “Degree Attainment Rates at
American Colleges and Universities” is available for purchase or order at the conference
My email is: [email protected]
Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles