Linking the North Carolina EOG Assessments to … the North Carolina EOG Assessments to NWEA MAP Tests March 2016 Page 2 of 23 Introduction Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA )

LinkingtheNorthCarolinaEOGAssessmentstoNWEAMAPTests

March2016

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Introduction

Northwest EvaluationAssociation™ (NWEA™) is committed to providing partnerswith usefultools to help make inferences from the Measures of Academic Progress® (MAP®) interimassessment scores. One important tool is the concordance table between MAP and statesummativeassessments.Concordance tableshavebeenused fordecades to relate scoresondifferent testsmeasuring similar but distinct constructs. These tables, typically derived fromstatisticallinkingprocedures,provideadirectlinkbetweenscoresondifferenttestsandservevarious purposes. Aside fromdescribing how a score on one test relates to performance onanothertest,theycanalsobeusedtoidentifybenchmarkscoresononetestcorrespondingtoperformancecategoriesonanothertest,ortomaintaincontinuityofscoresonatestafterthetest is redesigned or changed. Concordance tables are helpful for educators, parents,administrators,researchers,andpolicymakerstoevaluateandformulateacademicstandingandgrowth.

Recently,NWEAcompletedaconcordancestudytoconnectthescalesoftheNorthCarolinaEnd-of-Grade(EOG)Englishlanguagearts(ELA)andmathwiththoseoftheMAPReadingandMAPforMathematicsassessments.Inthisreport,wepresentthe3rdthrough8thgradecutscoresonMAPreadingandmathematicsscalesthatcorrespondtothebenchmarksontheEOGELAandmathtests.InformationabouttheconsistencyrateofclassificationbasedontheestimatedMAPcutscoresisalsoprovided,alongwithaseriesoftablesthatpredicttheprobabilityofreceivingaLevel3(i.e.,“Proficient”)orhigherperformancedesignationontheEOGassessments,basedontheobservedMAPscorestakenduringthesameschoolyear.AdetaileddescriptionofthedataandanalysismethodusedinthisstudyisprovidedintheAppendix.

OverviewofAssessments

NorthCarolinaEOGassessmentsincludeaseriesofachievementtestsalignedtotheCommonCore State Standards (CCSS) in ELA andmath for grades 3-8 and high school. EOG tests aredeliveredinthepaper-and-pencilform.Foreachgradeandsubject,therearefourcutscoresthatdistinguishbetweenperformancelevelsintofivelevelswithLevel1asthelowestandLevel5asthehighest.TheLevel3cutscoredemarkstheminimumlevelofperformanceconsideredtobe“Proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes.

MAPtestsareinterimassessmentsthatareadministeredintheformofacomputerizedadaptivetest(CAT).MAPtestsareconstructedtomeasurestudentachievementfromGradesKto12inmath, reading, language usage, and science and aligned to the CCSS.Unlike EOG tests,MAPassessmentsareverticallyscaledacrossgrades,afeaturethatsupportsdirectmeasurementof

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academicgrowthandchange.MAPscoresarereportedonaRaschUnit(RIT)scalewitharangefrom100to350.EachsubjecthasitsownRITscale.

ToaidinterpretationofMAPscores,NWEAperiodicallyconductsnormingstudiesofstudentandschoolperformanceonMAP.Forexample,the2015RITScalenormingstudy(Thum&Hauser,2015)employedmulti-levelgrowthmodelsonnearly500,000longitudinaltestscoresfromover100,000studentsthatwereweightedtocreatelarge,nationallyrepresentativenormsformath,reading,languageusage,andgeneralscience.

EstimatedMAPCutScoresAssociatedwithEOGReadinessLevels

Tables1to4reporttheEOGscaledscoresassociatedwitheachofthefiveperformancelevels,aswellastheestimatedscorerangeontheMAPtestsassociatedwitheachEOGperformancelevel.Specifically,Tables1and2applytoMAPscoresobtainedduringthespringtestingseasonforreadingandmath,respectively.Tables3and4applytoMAPteststakeninapriortestingseason(fallorwinter)forreadingandmath,respectively.Thetablesalsoreportthepercentilerank(basedontheNWEA2015MAPNorms)associatedwitheachestimatedMAPcutscore.TheMAPcutscorescanbeusedtopredictstudents’mostprobableEOGperformancelevel,basedontheirobservedMAPscores.Forexample,a3rdgradestudentwhoobtainedaMAPmathscoreof202inthespringtestingseasonislikelytobeattheveryhighendofLevel3(Proficient)ontheEOGtesttakenduringthatsametestingseason(seeTable2).Similarly,a6thgradestudentwhoobtainedaMAPreadingscoreof230inthefalltestingseasonislikelytobeatLevel5ontheEOGtesttakeninthespringof6thgrade(seeTable3).

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TABLE1.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENEOG

ELAANDMAPREADING(WHENMAPISTAKENINSPRING)

GradeEOG

Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level5

3 406-431 432-438 439-441 442-451 452-462

4 412-438 439-444 445-447 448-459 460-468

5 419-442 443-449 450-452 453-463 464-472

6 418-441 442-450 451-453 454-464 465-478

7 419-444 445-453 454-456 457-468 469-482

8 422-448 449-457 458-461 462-472 473-487

Grade

MAP


RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile

3 100-187 1-23 188-197 24-47 198-201 48-57 202-214 58-85 215-350 86-99

4 100-196 1-26 197-205 27-48 206-209 49-59 210-225 60-90 226-350 91-99

5 100-203 1-28 204-212 29-51 213-216 52-62 217-231 63-90 232-350 91-99

6 100-200 1-14 201-213 15-43 214-217 44-54 218-230 55-84 231-350 85-99

7 100-203 1-16 204-216 17-45 217-220 46-56 221-235 57-87 236-350 88-99

8 100-207 1-21 208-220 22-51 221-225 52-63 226-240 64-90 241-350 91-99Notes.1.%ile=percentile.2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes.

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TABLE2.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENEOG

ANDMAPMATH(WHENMAPISTAKENINSPRING)

GradeEOG


3 422-439 440-447 448-450 451-459 460-472

4 424-440 441-448 449-450 451-459 460-473

5 426-440 441-448 449-450 451-459 460-475

6 428-443 444-450 451-452 453-460 461-476

7 428-443 444-450 451-452 453-460 461-476

8 426-443 444-451 452-453 454-462 463-477

Grade

MAP


RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile

3 100-189 1-15 190-199 16-38 200-202 39-47 203-213 48-76 214-350 77-99

4 100-202 1-23 203-212 24-47 213-215 48-55 216-227 56-82 228-350 83-99

5 100-209 1-23 210-221 24-50 222-224 51-57 225-237 58-84 238-350 85-99

6 100-216 1-29 217-227 30-55 228-230 56-62 231-241 63-83 242-350 84-99

7 100-221 1-34 222-232 35-58 233-235 59-65 236-248 66-86 249-350 87-99

8 100-223 1-34 224-238 35-65 239-242 66-72 243-256 73-90 257-350 91-99Notes.1.%ile=percentile.2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes.

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TABLE3.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENEOGELAANDMAPREADING(WHENMAPISTAKENINFALLORWINTERPRIORTOSPRINGEOGTESTS)

GradeEOG

Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level53 406-431 432-438 439-441 442-451 452-4624 412-438 439-444 445-447 448-459 460-4685 419-442 443-449 450-452 453-463 464-4726 418-441 442-450 451-453 454-464 465-4787 419-444 445-453 454-456 457-468 469-4828 422-448 449-457 458-461 462-472 473-487

GradeMAPFALL

Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level5RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile RIT %ile

3 100-175 1-20 176-186 21-45 187-191 46-58 192-207 59-88 208-350 89-994 100-187 1-24 188-197 25-48 198-202 49-60 203-220 61-92 221-350 93-995 100-196 1-27 197-206 28-52 207-211 53-64 212-228 65-93 229-350 94-996 100-193 1-12 194-208 13-43 209-213 44-56 214-228 57-87 229-350 88-997 100-197 1-13 198-212 14-44 213-217 45-57 218-233 58-89 234-350 90-998 100-202 1-17 203-217 18-50 218-223 51-65 224-238 66-91 239-350 92-99

GradeMAPWINTER


3 100-183 1-21 184-194 22-47 195-198 48-57 199-212 58-86 213-350 87-994 100-193 1-24 194-203 25-49 204-207 50-60 208-224 61-91 225-350 92-995 100-201 1-28 202-210 29-51 211-214 52-62 215-230 63-92 231-350 93-996 100-198 1-13 199-211 14-42 212-216 43-56 217-229 57-85 230-350 86-997 100-201 1-15 202-215 16-46 216-219 47-56 220-234 57-87 235-350 88-998 100-205 1-18 206-219 19-51 220-224 52-63 225-239 64-90 240-350 91-99

Notes.1.%ile=percentile.2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes.

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TABLE4.CONCORDANCEOFPERFORMANCELEVELSCORERANGESBETWEENEOGANDMAPMATH(WHENMAPISTAKENINFALLORWINTERPRIORTOSPRINGEOGTESTS)

GradeEOG

Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level53 422-439 440-447 448-450 451-459 460-4724 424-440 441-448 449-450 451-459 460-4735 426-440 441-448 449-450 451-459 460-4756 428-443 444-450 451-452 453-460 461-4767 428-443 444-450 451-452 453-460 461-4768 426-443 444-451 452-453 454-462 463-477

GradeMAPFALL


3 100-175 1-12 176-186 13-38 187-189 39-47 190-201 48-80 202-350 81-994 100-190 1-20 191-200 21-45 201-203 46-54 204-216 55-85 217-350 86-995 100-199 1-20 200-211 21-50 212-214 51-58 215-227 59-86 228-350 87-996 100-208 1-27 209-219 28-54 220-222 55-62 223-234 63-86 235-350 87-997 100-215 1-33 216-226 34-59 227-229 60-66 230-242 67-88 243-350 89-998 100-218 1-33 219-234 34-67 235-238 68-75 239-252 76-92 253-350 93-99

GradeMAPWINTER


3 100-183 1-13 184-194 14-39 195-197 40-47 198-208 48-78 209-350 79-994 100-197 1-21 198-207 22-46 208-210 47-54 211-222 55-83 223-350 84-995 100-205 1-22 206-217 23-50 218-220 51-58 221-233 59-85 234-350 86-996 100-213 1-29 214-224 30-56 225-227 57-63 228-238 64-84 239-350 85-997 100-219 1-34 220-230 35-60 231-233 61-66 234-246 67-88 247-350 89-998 100-221 1-33 222-236 34-65 237-240 66-73 241-254 74-91 255-350 92-99

Notes.1.%ile=percentile.2.Boldednumbersindicatethecutscoresconsideredtobeatleast“proficient”foraccountabilitypurposes.

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ConsistencyRateofClassification

Consistencyrateofclassification(Pommerich,Hanson,Harris,&Sconing,2004),expressedintheformofaratebetween0and1,providesameanstomeasurethedeparturefromequity forconcordances(Hansonetal.,2001).ThisindexcanalsobeusedasanindicatorforthepredictivevalidityoftheMAPtests,i.e.,howaccuratelytheMAPscorescanpredictastudent’sproficiencystatusintheEOGtest.Foreachpairofconcordantscores,aclassificationisconsideredconsistentiftheexamineeisclassifiedintothesameperformancecategoryregardlessofthetestusedformaking a decision. Consistency rate provided in this report can be calculated as, for the“proficient”performancecategoryconcordantscores,thepercentageofexamineeswhoscoreatorabovebothconcordantscoresplusthepercentageofexamineeswhosescorebelowbothconcordantscoresoneachtest.HigherconsistencyrateindicatesstrongercongruencebetweenEOGandMAPscores.TheresultsinTable5demonstratethatonaverage,MAPreadingscorescan consistently classify students’ proficiency (Level 3 or higher) status on EOG ELA testapproximately82%ofthetimeandMAPmathscorescanconsistentlyclassifystudentsonEOGmathtestapproximately85%ofthetime.ThosenumbersarehighsuggestingthatbothMAPreadingandmathtestsaregreatpredictorsofthestudents’proficiencystatusontheEOGtests.

TABLE5.CONSISTENCYRATEOFCLASSIFICATIONFORMAPANDEOGLEVEL3

EQUIPERCENTILECONCORDANCES

GradeELA/Reading Math

ConsistencyRate

False ConsistencyRate

FalsePositives Negatives Positives Negatives

3 0.83 0.08 0.09 0.83 0.07 0.104 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.86 0.07 0.075 0.81 0.09 0.10 0.85 0.07 0.086 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.85 0.06 0.097 0.81 0.09 0.10 0.86 0.07 0.078 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.86 0.06 0.08

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ProficiencyProjection

Proficiencyprojectiontellshowlikelyastudentisclassifiedas“proficient”onEOGtestsbasedonhis/herobservedMAPscores.Theconditionalgrowthnormsprovidedinthe2015MAPNormswere used to calculate this information (Thum & Hauser, 2015). The results of proficiencyprojection and corresponding probability of achieving “proficient” on the EOG tests arepresentedinTables6to8.ThesetablesestimatetheprobabilityofscoringatLevel3oraboveonEOGinthespringandthepriorfallorwintertestingseason.Forexample,ifa3rdgradestudentobtainedaMAPmathscoreof192inthefall,theprobabilityofobtainingaLevel3orhigherEOGscore inthespringof3rdgrade is78%.Table6presentstheestimatedprobabilityofmeetingLevel 3 benchmark when MAP is taken in the spring, whereas Tables 7 and 8 present theestimatedprobabilityofmeetingLevel3benchmarkwhenMAPistakeninthefallorwinterpriortotakingtheEOGtests.

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TABLE6.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGEOGLEVEL3

(PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHESPRING

Grade

ELA/Reading Math

Start%ile

RITSpring

ProjectedProficiency Start%ile

RITSpring

ProjectedProficiency

CutScore Level3 Prob. CutScore Level3 Prob.

3

5 174 198 No <0.01 5 181 200 No <0.0110 179 198 No <0.01 10 186 200 No <0.0115 183 198 No <0.01 15 189 200 No <0.0120 186 198 No <0.01 20 192 200 No <0.0125 188 198 No <0.01 25 194 200 No 0.0230 191 198 No 0.01 30 196 200 No 0.0835 193 198 No 0.06 35 198 200 No 0.2540 195 198 No 0.17 40 200 200 Yes 0.5045 197 198 No 0.38 45 202 200 Yes 0.7550 199 198 Yes 0.62 50 203 200 Yes 0.8555 201 198 Yes 0.83 55 205 200 Yes 0.9660 202 198 Yes 0.89 60 207 200 Yes 0.9965 204 198 Yes 0.97 65 209 200 Yes >0.9970 207 198 Yes >0.99 70 211 200 Yes >0.9975 209 198 Yes >0.99 75 213 200 Yes >0.9980 211 198 Yes >0.99 80 215 200 Yes >0.9985 214 198 Yes >0.99 85 218 200 Yes >0.9990 218 198 Yes >0.99 90 221 200 Yes >0.9995 223 198 Yes >0.99 95 226 200 Yes >0.99

4

5 181 206 No <0.01 5 189 213 No <0.0110 187 206 No <0.01 10 194 213 No <0.0115 190 206 No <0.01 15 198 213 No <0.0120 193 206 No <0.01 20 201 213 No <0.0125 196 206 No <0.01 25 203 213 No <0.0130 198 206 No 0.01 30 206 213 No 0.0135 200 206 No 0.03 35 208 213 No 0.0440 202 206 No 0.11 40 210 213 No 0.1545 204 206 No 0.27 45 212 213 No 0.3750 206 206 Yes 0.50 50 213 213 Yes 0.5055 208 206 Yes 0.73 55 215 213 Yes 0.7560 210 206 Yes 0.89 60 217 213 Yes 0.9265 212 206 Yes 0.97 65 219 213 Yes 0.9870 214 206 Yes 0.99 70 221 213 Yes >0.9975 216 206 Yes >0.99 75 224 213 Yes >0.9980 218 206 Yes >0.99 80 226 213 Yes >0.9985 221 206 Yes >0.99 85 229 213 Yes >0.9990 225 206 Yes >0.99 90 233 213 Yes >0.9995 230 206 Yes >0.99 95 238 213 Yes >0.99

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TABLE6.(CONTINUED)

Grade

ELA/Reading Math

Start%ile

RITSpring


RITSpring



5

5 188 213 No <0.01 5 195 222 No <0.0110 193 213 No <0.01 10 201 222 No <0.0115 197 213 No <0.01 15 205 222 No <0.0120 199 213 No <0.01 20 208 222 No <0.0125 202 213 No <0.01 25 210 222 No <0.0130 204 213 No <0.01 30 213 222 No <0.0135 206 213 No 0.01 35 215 222 No 0.0140 208 213 No 0.06 40 217 222 No 0.0445 210 213 No 0.17 45 219 222 No 0.1550 212 213 No 0.38 50 221 222 No 0.3755 214 213 Yes 0.62 55 223 222 Yes 0.6360 216 213 Yes 0.83 60 225 222 Yes 0.8565 217 213 Yes 0.89 65 228 222 Yes 0.9870 220 213 Yes 0.99 70 230 222 Yes >0.9975 222 213 Yes >0.99 75 232 222 Yes >0.9980 224 213 Yes >0.99 80 235 222 Yes >0.9985 227 213 Yes >0.99 85 238 222 Yes >0.9990 231 213 Yes >0.99 90 242 222 Yes >0.9995 236 213 Yes >0.99 95 248 222 Yes >0.99

6

5 192 214 No <0.01 5 198 228 No <0.0110 197 214 No <0.01 10 204 228 No <0.0115 201 214 No <0.01 15 208 228 No <0.0120 203 214 No <0.01 20 211 228 No <0.0125 206 214 No 0.01 25 214 228 No <0.0130 208 214 No 0.03 30 217 228 No <0.0135 210 214 No 0.11 35 219 228 No <0.0140 212 214 No 0.27 40 221 228 No 0.0145 214 214 Yes 0.50 45 223 228 No 0.0450 216 214 Yes 0.73 50 225 228 No 0.1555 218 214 Yes 0.89 55 227 228 No 0.3760 219 214 Yes 0.94 60 230 228 Yes 0.7565 221 214 Yes 0.99 65 232 228 Yes 0.9270 223 214 Yes >0.99 70 234 228 Yes 0.9875 226 214 Yes >0.99 75 237 228 Yes >0.9980 228 214 Yes >0.99 80 239 228 Yes >0.9985 231 214 Yes >0.99 85 243 228 Yes >0.9990 235 214 Yes >0.99 90 247 228 Yes >0.9995 240 214 Yes >0.99 95 253 228 Yes >0.99

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TABLE6.(CONTINUED)

Grade

ELA/Reading Math

Start%ile

RITSpring


RITSpring



7

5 193 217 No <0.01 5 199 233 No <0.0110 199 217 No <0.01 10 206 233 No <0.0115 202 217 No <0.01 15 210 233 No <0.0120 205 217 No <0.01 20 214 233 No <0.0125 208 217 No <0.01 25 217 233 No <0.0130 210 217 No 0.01 30 219 233 No <0.0135 212 217 No 0.06 35 222 233 No <0.0140 214 217 No 0.17 40 224 233 No <0.0145 216 217 No 0.38 45 226 233 No 0.0150 218 217 Yes 0.62 50 229 233 No 0.0855 220 217 Yes 0.83 55 231 233 No 0.2560 222 217 Yes 0.94 60 233 233 Yes 0.5065 224 217 Yes 0.99 65 235 233 Yes 0.7570 226 217 Yes >0.99 70 238 233 Yes 0.9675 228 217 Yes >0.99 75 241 233 Yes >0.9980 231 217 Yes >0.99 80 244 233 Yes >0.9985 234 217 Yes >0.99 85 247 233 Yes >0.9990 238 217 Yes >0.99 90 251 233 Yes >0.9995 243 217 Yes >0.99 95 258 233 Yes >0.99

8

5 194 221 No <0.01 5 199 239 No <0.0110 200 221 No <0.01 10 206 239 No <0.0115 204 221 No <0.01 15 211 239 No <0.0120 207 221 No <0.01 20 215 239 No <0.0125 209 221 No <0.01 25 218 239 No <0.0130 212 221 No <0.01 30 221 239 No <0.0135 214 221 No 0.01 35 224 239 No <0.0140 216 221 No 0.06 40 226 239 No <0.0145 218 221 No 0.17 45 229 239 No <0.0150 220 221 No 0.38 50 231 239 No <0.0155 222 221 Yes 0.62 55 233 239 No 0.0260 224 221 Yes 0.83 60 236 239 No 0.1565 226 221 Yes 0.94 65 238 239 No 0.3770 228 221 Yes 0.99 70 241 239 Yes 0.7575 231 221 Yes >0.99 75 244 239 Yes 0.9680 233 221 Yes >0.99 80 247 239 Yes >0.9985 236 221 Yes >0.99 85 251 239 Yes >0.9990 240 221 Yes >0.99 90 255 239 Yes >0.9995 246 221 Yes >0.99 95 262 239 Yes >0.99

Note.%ile=percentile

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TABLE7.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGEOGELALEVEL

3(PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHEFALLORWINTERPRIORTOSPRING

EOGTESTS

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter

ProjectedProficiencyCutScore Level3 Prob. CutScore Level3 Prob.

3

5 162 198 No <0.01 5 171 198 No <0.0110 168 198 No 0.01 10 176 198 No <0.0115 172 198 No 0.03 15 180 198 No <0.0120 175 198 No 0.06 20 183 198 No 0.0225 178 198 No 0.13 25 185 198 No 0.0430 180 198 No 0.20 30 188 198 No 0.1335 182 198 No 0.24 35 190 198 No 0.1740 184 198 No 0.34 40 192 198 No 0.2845 186 198 No 0.44 45 194 198 No 0.4250 188 198 Yes 0.50 50 196 198 Yes 0.5855 190 198 Yes 0.61 55 198 198 Yes 0.7260 192 198 Yes 0.71 60 199 198 Yes 0.7865 194 198 Yes 0.76 65 201 198 Yes 0.8770 197 198 Yes 0.87 70 204 198 Yes 0.9675 199 198 Yes 0.92 75 206 198 Yes 0.9780 202 198 Yes 0.95 80 208 198 Yes 0.9985 205 198 Yes 0.98 85 211 198 Yes >0.9990 209 198 Yes 0.99 90 215 198 Yes >0.9995 214 198 Yes >0.99 95 221 198 Yes >0.99

4

5 173 206 No <0.01 5 179 206 No <0.0110 178 206 No 0.01 10 184 206 No <0.0115 182 206 No 0.02 15 188 206 No <0.0120 185 206 No 0.05 20 191 206 No 0.0125 188 206 No 0.09 25 194 206 No 0.0430 190 206 No 0.15 30 196 206 No 0.0835 192 206 No 0.23 35 198 206 No 0.1640 194 206 No 0.27 40 200 206 No 0.2845 196 206 No 0.38 45 202 206 No 0.3550 198 206 Yes 0.50 50 204 206 Yes 0.5055 200 206 Yes 0.56 55 205 206 Yes 0.5860 202 206 Yes 0.67 60 207 206 Yes 0.7265 204 206 Yes 0.77 65 209 206 Yes 0.8470 206 206 Yes 0.85 70 211 206 Yes 0.9275 209 206 Yes 0.91 75 214 206 Yes 0.9880 211 206 Yes 0.95 80 216 206 Yes 0.9985 214 206 Yes 0.97 85 219 206 Yes >0.9990 218 206 Yes 0.99 90 223 206 Yes >0.9995 224 206 Yes >0.99 95 228 206 Yes >0.99

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TABLE7.(CONTINUED)

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter

ProjectedProficiencyCut-Score Level3 Prob. Cut-Score Level3 Prob.

5

5 181 213 No <0.01 5 186 213 No <0.0110 186 213 No <0.01 10 191 213 No <0.0115 190 213 No 0.01 15 195 213 No <0.0120 193 213 No 0.04 20 197 213 No 0.0125 195 213 No 0.07 25 200 213 No 0.0330 198 213 No 0.12 30 202 213 No 0.0435 200 213 No 0.19 35 204 213 No 0.0940 202 213 No 0.28 40 206 213 No 0.1745 204 213 No 0.33 45 208 213 No 0.2850 206 213 No 0.44 50 210 213 No 0.4255 208 213 Yes 0.56 55 212 213 Yes 0.5860 210 213 Yes 0.67 60 214 213 Yes 0.7265 212 213 Yes 0.72 65 215 213 Yes 0.7870 214 213 Yes 0.81 70 218 213 Yes 0.9175 216 213 Yes 0.88 75 220 213 Yes 0.9480 218 213 Yes 0.91 80 222 213 Yes 0.9785 221 213 Yes 0.96 85 225 213 Yes 0.9990 225 213 Yes 0.99 90 229 213 Yes >0.9995 231 213 Yes >0.99 95 234 213 Yes >0.99

6

5 186 214 No <0.01 5 190 214 No <0.0110 192 214 No 0.01 10 196 214 No <0.0115 196 214 No 0.06 15 199 214 No 0.0120 198 214 No 0.07 20 202 214 No 0.0325 201 214 No 0.16 25 204 214 No 0.0630 203 214 No 0.23 30 207 214 No 0.1735 205 214 No 0.33 35 209 214 No 0.2840 207 214 No 0.39 40 211 214 No 0.4245 209 214 Yes 0.50 45 212 214 Yes 0.5050 211 214 Yes 0.61 50 214 214 Yes 0.6555 213 214 Yes 0.72 55 216 214 Yes 0.7260 215 214 Yes 0.77 60 218 214 Yes 0.8365 217 214 Yes 0.84 65 220 214 Yes 0.9170 219 214 Yes 0.90 70 222 214 Yes 0.9675 221 214 Yes 0.93 75 224 214 Yes 0.9880 224 214 Yes 0.97 80 226 214 Yes 0.9985 226 214 Yes 0.99 85 229 214 Yes >0.9990 230 214 Yes >0.99 90 233 214 Yes >0.9995 236 214 Yes >0.99 95 238 214 Yes >0.99

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TABLE7.(CONTINUED)

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter


7

5 189 217 No <0.01 5 192 217 No <0.0110 195 217 No 0.01 10 198 217 No <0.0115 199 217 No 0.04 15 201 217 No <0.0120 202 217 No 0.07 20 204 217 No 0.0225 204 217 No 0.12 25 207 217 No 0.0630 206 217 No 0.19 30 209 217 No 0.1235 209 217 No 0.28 35 211 217 No 0.2240 211 217 No 0.39 40 213 217 No 0.2845 213 217 Yes 0.50 45 215 217 No 0.4250 214 217 Yes 0.56 50 217 217 Yes 0.5855 216 217 Yes 0.61 55 219 217 Yes 0.7260 218 217 Yes 0.72 60 221 217 Yes 0.8365 220 217 Yes 0.81 65 223 217 Yes 0.9170 222 217 Yes 0.88 70 225 217 Yes 0.9675 225 217 Yes 0.93 75 227 217 Yes 0.9880 227 217 Yes 0.96 80 230 217 Yes >0.9985 230 217 Yes 0.99 85 232 217 Yes >0.9990 234 217 Yes >0.99 90 236 217 Yes >0.9995 240 217 Yes >0.99 95 242 217 Yes >0.99

8

5 191 221 No <0.01 5 194 221 No <0.0110 197 221 No 0.01 10 199 221 No <0.0115 201 221 No 0.03 15 203 221 No <0.0120 204 221 No 0.06 20 206 221 No 0.0125 207 221 No 0.10 25 209 221 No 0.0230 209 221 No 0.16 30 211 221 No 0.0535 211 221 No 0.22 35 213 221 No 0.1040 213 221 No 0.26 40 215 221 No 0.1845 215 221 No 0.35 45 217 221 No 0.2950 217 221 No 0.45 50 219 221 No 0.4355 219 221 Yes 0.55 55 221 221 Yes 0.5760 221 221 Yes 0.60 60 223 221 Yes 0.7165 223 221 Yes 0.69 65 225 221 Yes 0.8270 225 221 Yes 0.78 70 227 221 Yes 0.9075 228 221 Yes 0.84 75 229 221 Yes 0.9580 230 221 Yes 0.90 80 232 221 Yes 0.9885 234 221 Yes 0.96 85 235 221 Yes 0.9990 237 221 Yes 0.98 90 239 221 Yes >0.9995 243 221 Yes >0.99 95 244 221 Yes >0.99


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TABLE8.PROFICIENCYPROJECTIONANDPROBABILITYFORPASSINGEOGMATH

LEVEL3(PROFICIENT)WHENMAPISTAKENINTHEFALLORWINTERPRIORTO

SPRINGEOGTESTS

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter

ProjectedProficiencyCutScore Level3 Prob. CutScore Level3 Prob.

3

5 169 200 No <0.01 5 176 200 No <0.0110 174 200 No 0.03 10 181 200 No <0.0115 177 200 No 0.08 15 184 200 No 0.0220 179 200 No 0.14 20 187 200 No 0.0525 182 200 No 0.27 25 189 200 No 0.1030 184 200 No 0.32 30 191 200 No 0.2035 185 200 No 0.38 35 193 200 No 0.3440 187 200 Yes 0.50 40 195 200 Yes 0.5045 189 200 Yes 0.62 45 197 200 Yes 0.6650 190 200 Yes 0.68 50 198 200 Yes 0.7455 192 200 Yes 0.78 55 200 200 Yes 0.8660 194 200 Yes 0.86 60 202 200 Yes 0.9365 195 200 Yes 0.89 65 203 200 Yes 0.9570 197 200 Yes 0.94 70 205 200 Yes 0.9875 199 200 Yes 0.96 75 207 200 Yes 0.9980 201 200 Yes 0.98 80 209 200 Yes >0.9985 204 200 Yes 0.99 85 212 200 Yes >0.9990 207 200 Yes >0.99 90 215 200 Yes >0.9995 212 200 Yes >0.99 95 220 200 Yes >0.99

4

5 179 213 No <0.01 5 185 213 No <0.0110 184 213 No <0.01 10 190 213 No <0.0115 188 213 No 0.02 15 194 213 No <0.0120 190 213 No 0.04 20 197 213 No 0.0125 193 213 No 0.11 25 199 213 No 0.0330 195 213 No 0.17 30 201 213 No 0.0735 197 213 No 0.27 35 203 213 No 0.1440 198 213 No 0.32 40 205 213 No 0.2645 200 213 No 0.44 45 207 213 No 0.4250 202 213 Yes 0.56 50 209 213 Yes 0.5855 204 213 Yes 0.68 55 211 213 Yes 0.7460 205 213 Yes 0.68 60 212 213 Yes 0.8065 207 213 Yes 0.78 65 214 213 Yes 0.9070 209 213 Yes 0.86 70 216 213 Yes 0.9575 211 213 Yes 0.92 75 218 213 Yes 0.9880 214 213 Yes 0.97 80 221 213 Yes >0.9985 216 213 Yes 0.99 85 223 213 Yes >0.9990 220 213 Yes >0.99 90 227 213 Yes >0.9995 225 213 Yes >0.99 95 232 213 Yes >0.99

Page17of23

TABLE8.(CONTINUED)

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter


5

5 187 222 No <0.01 5 192 222 No <0.0110 193 222 No <0.01 10 198 222 No <0.0115 196 222 No 0.01 15 201 222 No <0.0120 199 222 No 0.03 20 204 222 No <0.0125 202 222 No 0.07 25 207 222 No 0.0130 204 222 No 0.12 30 209 222 No 0.0335 206 222 No 0.19 35 211 222 No 0.0740 208 222 No 0.28 40 213 222 No 0.1545 210 222 No 0.38 45 215 222 No 0.2750 211 222 No 0.44 50 217 222 No 0.4255 213 222 Yes 0.56 55 219 222 Yes 0.5860 215 222 Yes 0.67 60 221 222 Yes 0.7365 217 222 Yes 0.77 65 223 222 Yes 0.8570 219 222 Yes 0.85 70 225 222 Yes 0.9375 221 222 Yes 0.91 75 228 222 Yes 0.9880 224 222 Yes 0.96 80 230 222 Yes 0.9985 227 222 Yes 0.99 85 233 222 Yes >0.9990 230 222 Yes >0.99 90 237 222 Yes >0.9995 236 222 Yes >0.99 95 242 222 Yes >0.99

6

5 192 228 No <0.01 5 196 228 No <0.0110 198 228 No <0.01 10 202 228 No <0.0115 202 228 No <0.01 15 205 228 No <0.0120 205 228 No 0.01 20 209 228 No <0.0125 207 228 No 0.03 25 211 228 No <0.0130 209 228 No 0.05 30 214 228 No 0.0135 212 228 No 0.12 35 216 228 No 0.0340 214 228 No 0.19 40 218 228 No 0.0745 216 228 No 0.28 45 220 228 No 0.1550 218 228 No 0.38 50 222 228 No 0.2755 220 228 Yes 0.50 55 224 228 No 0.4260 222 228 Yes 0.62 60 226 228 Yes 0.5865 224 228 Yes 0.72 65 228 228 Yes 0.7370 226 228 Yes 0.81 70 230 228 Yes 0.8575 228 228 Yes 0.88 75 233 228 Yes 0.9580 231 228 Yes 0.95 80 236 228 Yes 0.9985 234 228 Yes 0.97 85 239 228 Yes >0.9990 238 228 Yes 0.99 90 243 228 Yes >0.9995 243 228 Yes >0.99 95 248 228 Yes >0.99

Page18of23

TABLE8.(CONTINUED)

GradeStart%ile

RITFall


RITWinter


7

5 195 233 No <0.01 5 198 233 No <0.0110 201 233 No <0.01 10 204 233 No <0.0115 205 233 No <0.01 15 208 233 No <0.0120 209 233 No <0.01 20 212 233 No <0.0125 211 233 No 0.01 25 215 233 No <0.0130 214 233 No 0.02 30 217 233 No <0.0135 216 233 No 0.05 35 220 233 No 0.0140 218 233 No 0.08 40 222 233 No 0.0345 221 233 No 0.18 45 224 233 No 0.0750 223 233 No 0.27 50 226 233 No 0.1555 225 233 No 0.38 55 228 233 No 0.2660 227 233 Yes 0.50 60 230 233 No 0.4265 229 233 Yes 0.62 65 233 233 Yes 0.6670 231 233 Yes 0.73 70 235 233 Yes 0.8075 234 233 Yes 0.86 75 238 233 Yes 0.9380 237 233 Yes 0.94 80 240 233 Yes 0.9785 240 233 Yes 0.98 85 244 233 Yes >0.9990 244 233 Yes >0.99 90 248 233 Yes >0.9995 250 233 Yes >0.99 95 254 233 Yes >0.99

8

5 197 239 No <0.01 5 199 239 No <0.0110 203 239 No <0.01 10 206 239 No <0.0115 208 239 No <0.01 15 210 239 No <0.0120 211 239 No <0.01 20 214 239 No <0.0125 214 239 No <0.01 25 217 239 No <0.0130 217 239 No 0.01 30 220 239 No <0.0135 219 239 No 0.02 35 222 239 No <0.0140 222 239 No 0.06 40 225 239 No 0.0145 224 239 No 0.10 45 227 239 No 0.0250 226 239 No 0.15 50 229 239 No 0.0655 229 239 No 0.26 55 231 239 No 0.1260 231 239 No 0.35 60 234 239 No 0.2865 233 239 No 0.45 65 236 239 No 0.4270 236 239 Yes 0.55 70 239 239 Yes 0.6575 238 239 Yes 0.65 75 241 239 Yes 0.7980 241 239 Yes 0.78 80 245 239 Yes 0.9485 245 239 Yes 0.90 85 248 239 Yes 0.9990 249 239 Yes 0.97 90 253 239 Yes >0.9995 256 239 Yes >0.99 95 259 239 Yes >0.99


Page19of23

SummaryandDiscussion

ThisstudyproducedasetofcutscoresonMAPreadingandmathtestsforGrades3to8thatcorrespond to each EOG performance level. By usingmatched score data from a sample ofstudentsfromNorthCarolina,thestudydemonstratesthatMAPscorescanaccuratelypredictwhetherastudentcouldbeproficientoraboveonthebasisofhis/herMAPscores.ThisstudyalsousedtheNWEA2015RITScalenormingstudyresultstoprojectastudent’sprobabilitytomeetproficiencybasedonthatstudent’spriorMAPscoresinfallandwinter.TheseresultswillhelpeducatorspredictstudentperformanceinEOGtestsasearlyaspossibleandidentifythosestudentswhoareatriskoffailingtomeetrequiredstandardssothattheycanreceivenecessaryresourcesandassistancetomeettheirgoals.

Whileconcordancetablescanbehelpfulandinformative,theyhavegenerallimitations.First,theconcordance tablesprovide informationaboutscorecomparabilityondifferent tests,but thescorescannotbeassumedtobeinterchangeable.InthecaseforEOGandMAPtests,astheyarenotparallelincontent,scoresfromthesetwotestsshouldnotbedirectlycompared.Second,thesampledatausedinthisstudywerecollectedfrom3schooldistricts,whichmaylimitthegeneralizability of the results to test takerswho differ significantly from this sample. Finally,cautionsshouldalsobeexercisediftheconcordedscoresareusedforasubpopulation.NWEAwillcontinuetogatherinformationaboutEOGperformancefromotherschooldistrictsinNorthCarolinatoenhancethequalityandgeneralizabilityofthestudy.

Page20of23

References

Hanson,B.A.,Harris,D.J.,Pommerich,M.,Sconing,J.A.,&Yi,Q.(2001).Suggestionsfortheevaluationanduseofconcordanceresults.(ACTResearchReportNo.2001-1).IowaCity,IA:ACT,Inc.

Kolen,M.J.,&Brennan,R.L.(2004).Testequating,scaling,andlinking.NewYork:Springer.

Pommerich,M.,Hanson,B.,Harris,D.,&Sconing,J.(2004).Issuesinconductinglinkagebetweendistincttests.AppliedPsychologicalMeasurement,28(4),247-273.

ThumY.M.,&Hauser,C.H.(2015).NWEA2015MAPNormsforStudentandSchoolAchievementStatusandGrowth.NWEAResearchReport.Portland,OR:NWEA.

Page21of23

Appendix

DataandAnalysis

Data

Data used in this studywere collected from3 school districts inNorth Carolina. The samplecontainedmatchedEOGELAandMAPreadingscoresfrom34,029studentsinGrades3to8andmatchedEOGandMAPmathscoresfrom33,974studentsinGrades3to8whocompletedbothEOGandMAPinthespringof2013.

Tounderstandthestatisticalcharacteristicsofthetestscores,descriptivestatisticsareprovidedinTableA1.AsTableA1indicates,thecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenMAPreadingandEOGELAscoresrangefrom0.77to0.82,andthecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenMAPandEOGmathscoresrangefrom0.82to0.86.AllthesecorrelationsindicateastrongrelationshipbetweenMAPandEOGtestscores.

TABLEA1.DESCRIPTIVESTATISTICSOFTHESAMPLEDATA

EOG MAPSubject Grade N r Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max

ELA/Reading

3 6,503 0.82 440 9.95 410 462 199 14.40 144 2424 7,115 0.79 446 9.43 417 468 207 13.78 143 2555 6,898 0.80 450 9.26 423 473 213 13.00 152 2506 4,623 0.78 455 9.87 416 478 218 13.43 152 2627 4,495 0.77 458 9.84 425 483 222 13.39 142 2658 4,395 0.78 461 10.38 422 488 225 14.81 152 271

Math

3 6,527 0.82 450 9.29 425 473 202 11.40 145 2654 7,033 0.84 450 9.17 425 475 215 12.43 138 2735 6,823 0.85 450 9.31 426 475 223 13.87 157 2736 4,588 0.85 452 9.60 427 476 228 14.45 158 2987 4,529 0.86 452 9.54 429 476 234 16.00 158 3128 4,474 0.85 452 9.82 429 478 238 18.18 151 321

Page22of23

EquipercentileLinkingProcedure

The equipercentile procedure (e.g., Kolen & Brennan, 2004) was used to establish theconcordancerelationshipbetweenEOGandMAPscores forgrades3to8 inELA/readingandmath.Thisprocedurematchesscoresonthetwoscalesthathavethesamepercentilerank(i.e.,theproportionofscoresatorbeloweachscore).

Supposeweneedtoestablishtheconcordedscoresbetweentwotests.𝑥isascoreonTest𝑋(e.g., EOG). Its equipercentile equivalent scoreonTest𝑌(e.g.,MAP),𝑒& 𝑥 ,canbeobtainedthroughacumulative-distribution-basedlinkingfunctiondefinedinEquation(A1):

𝑒& 𝑥 = 𝐺*+[𝑃 𝑥 ] (A1)

where𝑒& 𝑥 istheequipercentileequivalentofscoresonEOGonthescaleofMAP,𝑃 𝑥 isthepercentilerankofagivenscoreonTest𝑋.𝐺*+istheinverseofthepercentilerankfunctionforscores on Test𝑌 which indicates the scores on Test𝑌 corresponding to a given percentile.Polynomial loglinear pre-smoothing was applied to reduce irregularities of the frequencydistributionsaswellasequipercentilelinkingcurve.

ConsistencyrateofClassification

Consistency rateof classificationaccuracy,expressed in the formofa ratebetween0and1,measures the extent to which MAP scores (and the estimated MAP cut scores) accuratelypredictedwhetherstudentsinthesamplewouldbeproficient(i.e.,Level3orhigher)onEOGtests.

Tocalculateconsistencyrateofclassification,samplestudentsweredesignated“BelowEOGcut”or“AtoraboveEOGcut”basedontheiractualEOGscores.Similarly,theywerealsodesignatedas “BelowMAP cut” or “At or aboveMAP cut” based on their actualMAP scores. A 2-waycontingencytablewasthentabulated(seeTableA2),classifyingstudentsas“Proficient”onthebasisofEOGcutscoreandconcordantMAPcutscore.Studentsclassifiedinthetruepositive(TP)categorywere those predicted to be Proficient based on theMAP cut scores andwere alsoclassifiedasProficientbasedontheEOGcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthetruenegative(TN)categorywerethosepredictedtobeNotProficientbasedontheMAPcutscoresandwerealsoclassifiedasNotProficientbasedontheEOGcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthefalsepositive(FP) categorywere those predicted to be Proficient based on theMAP cut scores but wereclassifiedasNotProficientbasedontheEOGcutscores.Studentsclassifiedinthefalsenegative(FN)categorywerethosepredicatedtobeNotProficientbasedontheMAPcutscoresbutwereclassifiedasProficientbasedontheEOGcutscores.Theoverallconsistencyrateofclassificationwascomputedastheproportionofcorrectclassificationsamongtheentiresampleby(TP+TN)/(TP+TN+FP+FN).

Page23of23

TABLEA2.DEFINITIONOFCONSISTENCYRATEFOREOGTOMAPCONCORDANCE

EOGScore

BelowEOGcut AtorAboveEOGcut

MAPScore

BelowMAPcut TrueNegapve FalseNegapve

AtorAboveMAPcut FalsePosipve TruePosipveNote.Shadedcellsaresummedtocomputetheconsistencyrate.

ProficiencyProjection

MAPconditionalgrowthnormsprovidestudent’sexpectedgainscoresacrosstestingseasons(Thum&Hauser,2015).Thisinformationisutilizedtopredictastudent’sperformanceonEOGbasedonthatstudent’sMAPscoresinpriorseasons(e.g.fallandwinter).TheprobabilityofastudentachievingLevel3(Proficient)onEOG,basedonhis/herfallorwinterMAPscoreisgiveninEquation(A2):

𝑃𝑟 𝐴𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙3𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑥) = Φ 𝑥 + 𝑔 − 𝑐

𝑆𝐷 (𝐴2)

where,Φisastandardizednormalcumulativedistribution,𝑥isthestudent’sRITscoreinfallorwinter,𝑔istheexpectedgrowthfromfallorwintertospringcorrespondingto𝑥,𝑐istheMAPcut-scoreforspring,and𝑆𝐷istheconditionalstandarddeviationofgrowthfromfallorwintertospring.

FortheprobabilityofastudentachievingLevel3ontheEOGtests,basedonhis/herspringscore𝑠,itcanbecalculatedbyEquation(A3):

𝑃𝑟 𝐴𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙3𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔) = Φ 𝑠 − 𝑐𝑆𝐸 (𝐴3)

whereSEisthestandarderrorofmeasurementforMAPreadingormathtest.

Foundedbyeducatorsnearly40yearsago,NorthwestEvaluationAssociation(NWEA)isaglobalnot-for-profiteducationalservicesorganizationknownforourflagshipinterimassessment,MeasuresofAcademicProgress(MAP).Morethan7,800partnersinU.S.schools,schooldistricts,educationagencies,andinternationalschoolstrustustoofferpre-kindergartenthroughgrade12assessmentsthataccuratelymeasurestudentgrowthandlearningneeds,professionaldevelopmentthatfosterseducators’abilitytoacceleratestudentlearning,andresearchthatsupportsassessmentvalidityanddatainterpretation.Tobetterinforminstructionandmaximizeeverylearner’sacademicgrowth,educatorscurrentlyuseNWEAassessmentswithnearlyeightmillionstudents.

©NorthwestEvaluationAssociation2016.MeasuresofAcademicProgress,MAP,andPartneringtohelpallkidslearnareregisteredtrademarksofNorthwestEvaluationAssociationintheU.S.andinothercountries.NorthwestEvaluationAssociationandNWEAaretrademarksofNorthwestEvaluationAssociationintheU.S.andinothercountries.Thenamesofothercompaniesandtheirproductsmentionedarethetrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.

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Linking the North Carolina EOG Assessments to … the North Carolina EOG Assessments to NWEA MAP Tests March 2016 Page 2 of 23 Introduction Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA )