Lithium, a new source of energy Rio de Janeiro, April 2015 Fidel Oteíza 1921, office 1001 –...
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Lithium, a new source of energy Rio de Janeiro, April 2015 Fidel Oteíza 1921, office 1001 – Providencia, Santiago, Chile [email protected] 562-29460407
Lithium, a new source of energy Rio de Janeiro, April 2015
Fidel Oteza 1921, office 1001 Providencia, Santiago, Chile
[email protected] 562-29460407 569-66690429 www.signumbox.com
1
Slide 2
1.Introduction Questions that we are going to try to answer Is
there enough lithium in the world to meet demand? Are countries
prepared for the electrification of transportation? Will batteries
for energy storage systems become the largest application for
lithium? Can lithium replace oil? Will Chile, Argentina and Bolivia
become the new middle east?
Slide 3
3 1. Introduction Oil prices and global warming: drivers for
safer and greener technologies Oil prices Oil prices not only
respond to supply-demand conditions but also to geopolitical
conditions Oil prices are currently at low levels, but production
is concentrated in middle-east high levels of unrest and demand for
regime changes. The US is becoming a relevant player as an oil
producer (shale oil), but at higher costs. Global warming According
to the IEA the transport sector is responsible for almost 23% of
CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions from transport are dominated by
road China, US and Russia are the largest countries in terms of CO2
emissions
Slide 4
Lithium has a high electrochemical potential Lithium has a low
atomic mass (6.941 g/mol) Lithium has a low density (around 0.53
g/cm3 at 20C) Lithium-ion technology has been developing since the
seventies; however, in 1991 Sony was the first company to start
massive production of lithium-ion batteries. Once the advantages
over other technologies were recognized, applications began to
expand. 4 1.Introduction Why Lithium? Sony introduced the first
lithium ion cell early the ninetees
Slide 5
2. Lithium resources and supply Lithium is found in different
forms 5 Continental Brines Geothermal Brines SeeHard rock minerals
Lithium is found in continental brines as well in hard rock
minerals. Chile and Bolivia have about 2/3 of worldwide reserves in
the form of continental brines. Lithium minerals are found mainly
in the form of spodumene in Australia and China. Seawater is the
largest source of lithium resource.
Slide 6
6 2. Lithium resources and supply Lithium reserves are
concentrated in Chile, Argentina, Australia and China
Slide 7
7 2. Lithium resources and supply Salar de Atacama in Chile has
the best quality reserves of lithium Source: Peter Ehren.
Slide 8
8 2. Lithium resources and supply Salar de Atacama in Chile has
the best environmental conditions Source: Peter Ehren.
Slide 9
2. Lithium resources and supply Production process: Continental
brines (Chile) Brines contained in dry lakes Solar evaporation
ponds Pumping Lithium Chloride Solution Remotion of additional
water and crystalization of salts Chemical plant Lithium Carbonate
(Li2CO3) 1% Li 6% Li Remotion of magnesium and precipitation with
soda ash (Na 2 CO 3 ) Precipitation with calcium oxide, cal (CaO)
or with soda caustic (NaOH) Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) 9
Slide 10
10 Pegmatites Crusher Open pit mining Spodumene recovery Mica
removal and separation Chemical plant Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3)
Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) Lithium
Hydroxide (LiOH) 1,1% Li2O 6% Li2O * Pegmatites: - Spodumene:
LiAl(SiO 3 ) 2 - Petalite: LiAlSi4O10 - Lepidolite: (KLi 2
Al(Al,Si) 3 O 10 (F,OH) 2 Li2O: Lithium oxide 10 2. Lithium
resources and supply Production process: Hard rock minerals
12 Total Lithium Production 160,000 Li2CO3 73,600 LiOH 30,300
Li Concentrate 28,300 Li Metal 5,400 BuLi 8,000 LiCl 8,800 Other
6,200 Brines 90,000 Minerals 70,000 Note: numbers are rounded.
Source: signumBOX estimates. 2. Lithium resources and supply
Lithium carbonate is the most important chemical compound Tones
LCE
Slide 13
13 Lithium production is concentrated in Australia, Chile and
China Production in Chile has many advantages, make it the lowest
cost producer: High lithium/potassium concentration Low evaporation
rate (driest dessert in the world) Low magnesium/lithium ratio
(magnesium must be removed) 10 years ago there were more than 100
of lithium exploration projects in the world. Currently there are
about 40 projects, and 5 of them are about to start producing in
the coming (Argentina and Canada). Source: signumBOX estimates. 2.
Lithium resources and supply Australia is the largest lithium
producer Tones LCE
Slide 14
14 Total lithium demand reached in 2014 about 150,000 160,000
tones as LCE. Batteries are the main application for lithium (40%
app of total demand): 67% of the consumption of lithium carbonate
and 30% of the use of lithium hydroxide. Lithium is also widely
used in lubricating greases in the form of lithium hydroxide. Other
interesting applications: lithium alloys, medicine, metal
treatment, among others. Source: signumBOX estimates. 3. Lithium
demand Batteries are the main application for lithium
Slide 15
15 Source: signumBOX estimates. 3. Lithium demand Batteries are
the main application for lithium
Slide 16
16 Lithium carbonate / hydroxide is used as a cathode material
in rechargeable batteries Lithium metal also used in primary
batteries Lithium chloride is used in the the electrolyte in
rechargeable batteries 62,000 tones LCE 40,400 tones LCE Source:
signumBOX estimates. 3. Lithium demand Batteries for portable
devices represent the largest use for lithium in batteries
Slide 17
17 Recent market trends: The announcement made by Tesla
regarding the construction of the giga-factory in Nevada was very
welcomed by the industry. Capacity for batteries for 500,000
vehicles in 2020 (currently capacity for 35,000 vehicles) The State
of Nevada offered US$ 1.3 billion of tax credits The cost of the
gigafactory is estimated at US$ 5 billion, but some analysists
estimate that would reach around US$ 6 billion. Tesla autonomy
reaches 250 miles (industry average: 75 110 miles) The battery uses
standard cells (18650). Advantage in costs. The Chinese government
intents to distribute 5 million electric cars (Evs and P-HEVs) by
2020 to solve the Nations environmental problems. Global EV market
demand is expected to grow from 2.4 million units in 2014 to 8
million in 2020. We assume a conservative scenario, with Tesla
supplying 250,000 EVs by 2020 (instead of 500,000). Source:
signumBOX estimates. 3. Lithium demand Batteries for hybrid /
electric cars
Slide 18
18 Source: signumBOX estimates. Tesla Roadster: 40 Kg LCE 3.
Lithium demand Lithium consumption in batteries Iphone battery 2.5
grs LCE Lenovo battery 30 50 grs LCE Grid storage project tones of
LCE Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid: 4.4. Kg LCE
Slide 19
19 Source: signumBOX estimates from various sources. 3. Lithium
demand Battteries for HEV and EVs 1.000 US$/KWh 500 US$/KWh 150
US$/KWh
Slide 20
20 Source: signumBOX estimates, JOGMEC. Battery MaterialMain
advantageMain disadvantageApplicationsLithium contentLithium
material Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) Balanced yieldLow cycle
lifeElectronic devices7%Lithium carbonate Nickel manganese cobalt
oxide (NMC) SafetyHigh cycle life / lower capacity HEV7%Lithium
carbonate / Lithium hydroxide Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) Low
costHigh cycle life / lower capacity EV P-HEV4%Lithium carbonate
Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA) High capacityNot safetyEV
P-HEV7%Lithium hydroxide Lithium iron phosphates (LFP) High thermal
stability / Safety High cycle life / lower capacity HEVs -
EVs4%Lithium carbonate / Lithium hydroxide Materials for Metal
Oxide Cathodes 3. Lithium demand Battery materials
Slide 21
21 3. Lithium demand Energy Storage Systems Challenge: Match
supply and demand in real time According to the US Department of
Energys Energy Storage Database: Total energy storage systems:
1,250 projects in the world / 184,574 MW Pumped hydro: 341 projects
in the world / 177,427 MW Electrochemical (Li-ion batteries): 386
projects / 690 MW Economics of pumped hydro are very difficult to
compete with (for chemical solutions) Non battery solutions are by
far the current leader in cost, but lithium ion batteries cost is
falling Pumped hydroCAES (Compressed air energy storage)
Flywheels
Slide 22
22 3. Lithium demand Total Energy Storage Systems
Slide 23
23 3. Lithium demand Batteries for Energy Storage Systems
Slide 24
24 3. Lithium demand Battery for Energy Storage Systems
Slide 25
Batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles are going to be the
largest application for lithium demand. Today represents about 6,0%
of total lithium demand In 2025 would account more than 35% of the
total lithium demand. Total lithium demand would reach 390,000
tones in 2025 (including inventories). 25 Source: signumBOX
estimates. CAGR: +8.6% 3. Lithium demand Forecasting lithium
demand
Slide 26
4. Final Conclusions Questions that we are going to try to
answer Is there enough lithium in the world to meet demand? Yes Are
countries prepared for the electrification of transportation?
LatinAmerican countries not yet.. Will batteries for energy storage
systems become the largest application for lithium? No, batteries
for hybrid and electric cars are going to be the largest
application for lithium Can lithium replace oil? No, automakers are
going to diversify technologies Will Chile, Argentina and Bolivia
become the new middle east? No
Slide 27
Fidel Oteza 1921, office 1001 Providencia, Santiago, Chile
[email protected] 562-29460407 569-66690429 www.signumbox.com 27
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