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LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP. Global Climate Change Impacts in the Eastern United States Presented by Tim Owen, Frank Niepold, and Peg Steffen. Tuesday, November 17, 2009. CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAST?. TIM OWEN NOAA’s NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Global Climate Change Impacts in the Eastern
United StatesPresented by Tim Owen, Frank Niepold,
and Peg Steffen
CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAST?
TIM OWENNOAA’s NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
Eastern U.S. – Northeast/Southeast
Presentation Outline
PART ONE: What’s Going On With the Climate in the Eastern U.S.?
PART TWO: What are the Impacts?
PART THREE: What Can We Do About It?
What’s Going On?
PART ONE
Which of the following terms have you heard about and understand?
[Place clip art on the continuum below]
Climate Change
Climate Variability
Global Warming
What is your perception of how the climate has changed where you live over the past 30 years?
A. Much Warmer
B. Warmer
C. No Change
D. Cooler
E. Much Cooler
Change variability and change
Climate Variability: Natural changes in climate falling in the normal range of extremes for a particular region. Drivers of climate variability include the El Niño Southern Oscillation and other phenomena.
Climate Change: A significant and persistent change in the mean state of the climate or its variability. Drivers include regular changes in Earth’s orbit about the sun, re-arrangement of continents through plate tectonic motions, or anthropogenic modification of the atmosphere.
Global warming
Global Warming: The observed increase in average temperature near the Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Global warming is a type of climate change; it can also lead to other changes in climate conditions, such as changes in precipitation patterns.
The world is getting warmer…
Observed Temperature Change
1880-2007
… and further warming is likely
The U.S. is getting warmer and slightly wetter
… with an uptick of extreme events
INCREASES in…Air and water temperaturesFrequency of heavy downpours Intensity of heavy downpoursSea level
DECREASES in…Frost daysSnow coverGlaciers and permafrostSea ice
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpoursDecrease in precipitation falling as snow
SOUTHEAST:Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970Seasonal changes in precipitation (e.g., 30% increase in Fall, decrease in summer)Increase in heavy downpours and drought coverageIncrease in power of Atlantic hurricanes since 1970
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpoursDecrease in precipitation falling as snow
In the Eastern United States…
SOUTHEAST:Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970Seasonal changes in precipitation (e.g., 30% increase in Fall, decrease in summer)Increase in heavy downpours and drought coverageIncrease in power of Atlantic hurricanes since 1970
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for Questions from the
Audience
What are the Impacts?
PART TWO
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:Increasing health risks from extreme heat and declining air quality Adverse impact on production of milk, fruits, and maple syrupMore frequent flooding from sea-level rise, storm surge, and heavy downpoursAdverse impact on winter recreation, and lobster
and cod fisheries
Coastal inundation impact…New York
In the Eastern United States…
SOUTHEAST:Increases in air/water temperatures stress people, plants/animalsDecreased water availability is very likely to affect the economy
and natural systemsSea-level rise and increases in hurricane intensity and storm surge
cause serious impactsEcosystem thresholds crossed, leading to natural disruptionsSevere weather events and reduced availability of insurance
Coastal inundation impact…Louisiana
Infrastructure impact…Gulf Coast
Poll Question
How significant do you think climate change impacts will be on ecosystems in the Eastern U.S. over the next 50 years?
A) DevastatingB) SignificantC) NoticeableD) Minimal
What Can We Do About It?
PART THREE
The Choice
“We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.”
John HoldrenPresident of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; Harvard University
Responding to Climate Change
Mitigation: Reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere
Adaptation: Improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions
BOTH will be needed.
Adaption case 1
Adaption case 2
Choosing the path
Reality check: where are we now?
Above even the highest
future scenario
Who is responsible?
The value of climate literacy
Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens.
Days > 100oF: 1961-1979
Days > 100oF: 2070-2099
LOWER Emissions
Scen.
HIGHER Emissions
Scen.
Small things matter
stop using this start using this
Ultimately we need a fundamental change
stop using this start using this
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for Questions from the
Audience
When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States?
[Place clip art on the continuum below]
They are being harmed now
In 25 years
In 100 years
In 50 years
Never
In 10 years
Resources 1
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
What climate change means for the places we care about …
PDF & educational materials free online at:
www.globalchange.gov/ usimpacts
Resources 2
Climate Change, Wildlife and Wildlands Toolkit for Formal and Informal Educators
Helps educators teach about climate change impacts and how to become a “climate steward”
http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/toolkit/
THE END
FOR MORE INFORMATION
WWW.GLOBALCHANGE.GOV/USIMPACTS
THANKS TO THE SPONSOR OF TONIGHT’S WEB SEMINAR!
http://learningcenter.nsta.org
http://www.elluminate.com
National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director
Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director
Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator