Overview of key issues, drivers, consequences, responses and way forward

Fritz Schneider

Swiss College of Agriculture (SHL)

Presentation at IDAG Meeting,

4-5 May, 2010, IFAD, Rome

Issue• The livestock sector is changing rapidly • Sector is central to global food security, poverty

reduction and livelihood support• A multitude of opportunities and challenges exist

• Sector is faced with diverse pressures and demands (population, urbanization, climate change, environmental, social and health concerns...)

• Diverse, competing and contrasting objectives and trade-offs

Livestock in a Changing Landscape (LCL)• An international scientific assessment of the global livestock sector• Started March 2006; published and launched March 2010• Provides an in-depth assessment of:

– current global and regional status and trends examining the factors shaping changes in the sector

– consequences of livestock production: environmental, social and health – current stakeholder responses to changing demand and challenges and

potential policy and management responses

• With goal of: – achieving comprehensive and integrated view of the global livestock

sector, its drivers, consequences and responses to issues of concern

• Integrated analysis: analyzing how changes in the sector relate to changes in environmental, health and social contexts

• Multi-scale assessment: global to local levels

LCL focuses on:• Drivers of change

– change in global agricultural and livestock systems

– trends in production, consumption and trade

– structural change in the sector

– geographical dimension of structural change

• Consequences

– environment

– social

– health

• Responses to demands and challenges

– environmental issues

– social issues

– human nutrition issues

– emerging diseases

• Volume I: Global perspective

• Volume 2: Regional perspective and

experiences

Per capita consumption of major food items: developing countries

Trends in Consumption, Production and Trade in Livestock and Livestock Products

• The share of all animal products in human diets continues to increase in the developing world

• Income growth is a major driver of increasing consumption

• Urbanisation of populations also drives growth in consumption

• The population growth and population structure drives thetotal livestock product consumption

• Global animal production is shifting from industrial to developing regions

Per capita meat consumption (kg/year)

Source: FAO data reported in Delgado et al., 1999.

The share of all animal products in human dietscontinues to increasein the developingworld

Total meat consumption (million mt)

Source: FAO data reported in Delgado et al., 1999.

The share of all animal products in human dietscontinues to increasein the developingworld

Consumption levels 2008

Source FAOSTAT 2009

020406080

100120140160180200

Devel

oped

Devel

opin

g

Asi

a

SSA

Kg/caputa

Milk Meat

Income growth and demand for meat 2005

Source FAO, SOFA, 2009

Income growth isa major driver of increasingconsumption

Demand driver income growth, per capita GDP growth rates at market prices

Source: WB 2005

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

SS Africa NENA LAC S Asia E Asia

1990-20002000-302030-50

Urbanisation

Source UN 2003

0

1 000 000 000

2 000 000 000

3 000 000 000

4 000 000 000

5 000 000 000

6 000 000 000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

urban

rural

Urbanisation of populationsalso drivesgrowth in consumption

Population growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 2000 2030 2050

DevelopingDeveloped

Source UN 2003

Population growth and population structuredrives the total livestockproduct consumption

Trends : Regional meat production

Source LLS 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2030 2050

Developing Developed

Global meat production

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Inde

x: 1

961=

100

Poultry Pig Cattle Sheep and Goat

Production of livestock products by developing region

Annual growth rates (1980-2007)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

East &Southeast Asia

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

South Asia Near East andNorth Africa

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Developingcountries

Ann

ual g

row

th ra

te (%

)

Meat Milk Eggs

Global trade in livestock productsProduct Global exports

million metric tonnesAnnual growth

rate(%)

1980 2006 1980-2006

Meat 9.6 32.1 4.8

Bovine 4.3 9.2 3.0

Pig meat 2.6 10.4 5.5

Poultry meat 1.5 11.1 8.0

Ovine 0.8 1.1 1.2

Dairy products 42.8 90.2 2.9

Eggs 0.8 1.5 2.4

Net meat exports from developed and developing countries

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Milli

on to

nnes

Developed Developing Least Developed Countries

Net milk exports from developed and developing countries

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Developed Developing Least Developed Countries

Drivers of change: Key messages• The livestock sector is changing rapidly in

response to increasing demand• In responding to demand, the sector has become

a major source of negative externalities• Concurrently, the sector is increasingly faced

with new challenges such as climate change, resource scarcity and related competition, consumer awareness, etc.

• The unparalleled growth in the last decades has implications at the environmental, social and health level

Consequences: EnvironmentThe livestock sector is ...• major user of natural resources

– land: 1/3 of arable land; 80% of agricultural land– water: 20% (~11 900 Km3) of all green water flows for feed

production

• major contributor to GHG emissions (18% of total global anthropogenic emissions) and nutrient loss (N, P)

• major driver of natural resource degradation– NR pollution– biodiversity loss: trampling, over-grazing, deforestation, over-

fishing– land degradation

Consequences: environment (2)Impacts of production systems• Intensive systems: characterized

by clustering of production, trend towards landless highly specialized farms– disruption of nutrient cycle and

nutrient imbalances; ecosystem pollution, nutrient depletion, emissions to air

• Extensive systems: high interaction with natural resources– impacts on land and soil, water,

carbon sequestration, biodiversity

Estimated distribution of industrialized produced pig

populations

Consequences: Human health impacts

Human nutrition• Benefits: an important source

of protein, energy and micronutrients esp. in protein deficient regions

• Risks: Excessive meat consumption is not equated with optimal health – risks associated with over-consumption include CVDs, obesity, cancer, type 2

diabetes

Production system impactsIntensive systems• Antimicrobial resistance:

antibiotics, heavy metals• Emergence and reemergence

of zoonoses• Occupational risks: respiratory

problemsExtensive systems• Disease transmission between

animals, wildlife and people

Consequences: Social Implications• Social systems are being altered with both

positive and negative implications• Some poor producers have benefited from rapid

livestock sector growth• Many smallholders have been marginalized and

excluded from participating in growing markets– market barriers, high transaction costs, etc.

• Relocation of production; from rural to urban and peri-urban areas – reduced employment and income opportunities in

rural areas

Consequences: Key messages• The impact of the livestock sector is not

only large but diverse• Impacts have been both positive and

negative • Integrated, innovative and tailored

strategies and responses are required at all levels to deal with the demands and challenges

ResponsesDespite the opportunities that the sector can benefit from, neglected problems

and new emerging needs and challenges continue to threaten the sector ...

• Environmental issues– climate change – resource degradation: land, air and water– biodiversity erosion

• Social issues – smallholder marginalization

• Human health and nutrition issues– persistent undernutrition vs. emerging over

consumption • Emerging and reemerging livestock diseases

Key barriers to effective responseCurrent responses have yielded some benefits but these have not kept

pace with mounting demands and emerging challenges

• Institutional response and policies have not kept pace with rapid growth in production, consumption and trade, and associated structural change

– Systemic market and policy failure as well as a lack of economic

incentives

– Inappropriate institutional and governance arrangements

– Underinvestment in development of sector, diffusion of technology,

human and institutional capacity, etc.

• Dichotomous nature of the livestock sector

– regulatory frameworks (zoning regulations, emission standards) targeting limited environmental mediums (water, air and some extent biodiversity)

– livestock sector mostly excluded from climate change agreements and policies

– technological advancements that have helped to lessen the sector’s environmental impact and resource demand have been largely driven by efficiency considerations

Current Responses: Environmental issues

• Positive livestock sector development supported by smallholder development however with few smallholders benefiting from the drivers of change – public and private schemes e.g. loans and credit schemes– facilitation of collective actions e.g. cooperatives and contract

farming

• Exit from the sector of smallholders who are unable to benefit from the changing landscape

Current Responses: Social issues

Human health and nutrition

• livestock sector development and product importation to meet increasing demand

• nutrition intervention and social safety net programs to address nutrition-related diseases

• Regulatory frameworks and instruments – dietary guidelines, standards, products labelling

• Market-based responses: subsides, taxation, etc.

• Communication and consumer awareness

Emerging livestock diseases• Measures to minimize risk of

emerging disease –vaccination, biosecurity, restructuring of sector

• Early warning and surveillance systems

• Capacity building through strengthening of human resource base

Current Responses: Human and animal health

Responses: Key messagesResponses need to deliver better on the core development and sustainability

goals of the sector

• Put an end to “benign neglect” of the livestock sector.

• Recognize diversity and enable the livestock sector to deliver on multiple

objectives through integrated approaches:

– Development of institutional frameworks and policies

– Multi-sectoral horizontal collaboration

– Institutional mechanisms tailored to reflect diverse challenges and diversity within

sector

• Investment in, and diffusion of, technology will be key to managing future

challenges and demands

• Correct market distortions and policy failure

Regional perspectives and experiences: Objectives

• Provides regional overviews and draw experience from specific contexts.

• Describes how drivers and consequences of livestock sector change play out in specific geographical areas and shape the sector’s transformations.

• Explores in greater detail some of the specific environmental and social issues analyzed in Volume 1.

• Focuses on the responses to change.

Regional perspectives and experiences• Presents 7 regional case studies and a private sector

perspective (Nestlé)

evolvinglivestock systems

systems at onset oflivestockrevolution

systems inrapid growth

post-livestock revolution

traditional livestock systems: West and East Africa

India

Brazil and China

USA and Denmark

Development continuum

Regional perspectives: Cross-Cutting Observations

• The livestock revolution– observed in most regions, at various scales and for some features– not universal– potential for both positive and negative social and environmental

consequences– key role played by the private sector

• Competition for land– Africa, Europe, China, Latin America– contexts where livestock production is market oriented and

competes with other land users– contexts where livestock uses marginal lands

Regional perspectives: Cross-Cutting Observations (ii)

• Generally unsatisfactory responses ...– often absent or ineffective– lack of awareness among policy makers– shortcomings in policy design and rampant lack of enforcement– environment, social and public health

• ... but some success stories – Costa Rica, Denmark, Horn of Africa, China

Regional perspectives: Cross-Cutting Observations (iii)

• Policy lessons– designing and implementing policies is a continuous trial and

error effort– requires resources , strong analytical skills , continuity in the

policy making effort, and ultimately strong institutions– awareness and willingness to bear the costs of action develop

slowly– need to combine measures into balanced and enforceable policy

mixes– need to phase and target adequately

Regional perspectives: Key messages• The livestock landscape depicted in this volume is one of

complexity , where livestock interact with a variety of natural resources, social issues, and development objectives.

• It is also one of superimposed patterns , where farming techniques and management systems of different standards coexist, and wherelocal endogenous development processes are increasingly influenced by the intrusion of international trade.

• Calls for tailored responses , progressive policy developmentprocesses relying on multidisciplinary analysis , and the need to carefully balance development objectives when guiding the livestock sector.

The Way Forward 1Build a Multi Donor Livestock Consortium which will capitalize on the lessons learned from :

• LEAD

• Livestock‘s Long Shadow

• PPLPI

• Lifestock in a Changing Landscape

• SOFA 2009 (Lifestock in a Balance)

• Other recent research results and publications

• Private sector experience

The Way Forward 2

Consortium should become a global agenda settttingexercise, supported by the piloting oa a series of

• poverty

• health

• environment

interventions

The Way Forward 3

The Consortium should bring together

• Key Public

• Private

• Research

• other tertiary

actors

The Way Forward 4

The Consortium should bring together

• Key Public

• Private

• Research

• other tertiary

actors

The Way Forward 5

First steps:

• FAO, WB, Switzerland, Netherlands are developingand discussing a concept note for the Consortiumand the activities mentioned above.

Possible first actions:

• Side event at COAG meeting in June, lead by NL

• Possible broad based consultation as side event ofregional consultation on SOFA, planned forSeptember 2010 in China