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Livestock Marketing Information Center. The Range Beef Cow Symposium XVIII The Cattle Markets. Jim Robb Director. Why Were Fed Cattle Prices $33 per Cwt. Above A Year Ago in October?. Beef Supply (Production) Declined 12 Percent 2.Beef Demand Improved - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Livestock Marketing Information Center
The Range Beef Cow Symposium XVIII
The Cattle Markets
Jim Robb Director
Why Were Fed Cattle Prices $33 per Cwt. Above A Year Ago in October?
1. Beef Supply (Production) Declined 12 Percent
2. 2. Beef Demand Improved
3. Live-to-Retail Margin Declined Live-to-Cutout (Packer) Up Cutout-to-Retail (Retailer) Down Sharply
4. Byproduct (Drop) Value Was Up
$18 to $24 per cwt.
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
U S RED MEAT AND POULTRY CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Pounds
Turkey
TotalChicken
Pork
Beef
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONQuarterly
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.1998/02
2003
2004
2005
RTC BROILER PRODUCTIONQuarterly
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.1998/02
2003
2004
2005
U S BROILER EXPORTSRTC Weight, Monthly
250
300
350
400
450
500
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTSFeed Costs per Cwt, Steers
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$ Per Cwt
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)Real Dollar (1996) Change from Previous Quarter
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Percent Change
AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERSFeeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Annual
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
$ Per Head
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
$ Per Cwt
SteerPrice
Breakeven
ProjectedBreakeven
US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONPercent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.1997-01
2002
2003
TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLEU.S., January 1
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mil. Head
1938-49
1949-58
1958-67
1967-79
1979-90
1990-03
PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORYU.S., January 1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
90
100
110
120
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Mil. Head
20
22
24
26
28Bil. Pounds
Production
Total Inventory
CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJULY 1, 2002 TO JULY 1, 2003
(1000 Head)
Other States
US Total
93 to 93 (1)20 to 93 (2)10 to 20 (2)
-23 to 10 (2)-50 to -23 (2)-77 to -50 (2)
-50-66
10
21 -23
20
-77
-33
93-57-150
2
10
COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
-100
-50
0
50
100
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
$ Per Cow
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135Mil. Head
Cow-CalfReturns
CattleInventoryJan 1
BOTTOM ROUND #170 TO LIGHT CHOICE CUTOUT
PRICE RATIO
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Price Ratio
BOTTOM ROUND #170 TO LIGHT CHOICE CUTOUT
PRICE RATIO
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Price Ratio
CUTOUT VALUEMonthly
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03
$/Cwt
Prime
Branded
Choice
Select
Ungraded
PRIMAL RIB VALUEMonthly
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03
$/Cwt
Prime
Branded
Choice
Select
Ungraded
PRIMAL CHUCK VALUEMonthly
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03
$/Cwt
Prime
Branded
Choice
Select
Ungraded
RETAIL CHOICE BEEF DEMAND INDEXUsing CPI 1980=100
10094
88 86 8379 76
70 69 66 65 63 59 58 56 55 53 51 50 52 53 56 55 58
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Index Value
2003 Estimated
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U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
0
2
4
6
8
10
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Percent
U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
SouthKorea
U S CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADAMonthly
020
40
60
80100
120
140
160180
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Thou. Head
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
U S BEEF, VEAL & LIVE CATTLENET IMPORTS
From Canada, Animal Equivalents, Monthly
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Thou. Head
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
U S CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOMonthly
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Thou. Head
Avg.1997/01
2002
2003
CATTLE ON FEEDSeven Historical States, Monthly
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
Avg.1997-2001
2002
2003
FED CATTLE MARKETINGSAs a Percent of Cattle on Feed > 90 Days, Monthly
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Percent
Avg.1997-2001
2002
2003
COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.1998/02
2003
2004
2005
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