Upload
ramona-golden
View
60
Download
21
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Livestock & Meat outlook China. February 25, 2008. Prepared by Shiyao Investment Ltd Shanghai, ATO Oklahoma Agricultural Leadership Program. Table of contents. Shiyao Investment Ltd Outlook of China livestock situation in 2008 Opportunities for US grain and livestock producers. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Livestock & Meat outlook
China
Livestock & Meat outlook
ChinaFebruary 25, 2008
Prepared by Shiyao Investment Ltd
Shanghai, ATO
Oklahoma Agricultural Leadership Program
Table of contents
Shiyao Investment Ltd
Outlook of China livestock situation in 2008
Opportunities for US grain and livestock producers
Shiyao Investment Ltd
Shiyao Investment Ltd is a very focused company providing advisory and investment banking services with a strict focus on Greater China and Japan and on the complete food chain, from the farm to the end consumer.
We are headquartered in Shanghai and established since 1999
Meat consumption in PRC: 92-02
Consumption volume of pork, beef and chicken meat per capita in China (1992 ~2002)
22.624.2
26.9
30.3
26.1
29.5
32.2
4.4
31.831.431.6
32.4
2 2.53.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.6
2.71.91.53.3 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r ca
pita
/yea
r/pe
rson
(K
G)
Pork Chicken Beef
Consumption trend:
Fast growing demand of meat products
especially high-grade chilled meat products in large cities require
high quality raw materials including
quality feed ingredients to insure
food traceability.
Evolution of meat production in China between 1962 and 2002
Beef meat consumed in China as a % of total meat Beef meat consumed in China as a % of total meat consumed per capita per month (2002)consumed per capita per month (2002)
Beef meat consumption in PRC
Beef Consumption in PRC
There are three forms of consumption for beef in PRC:
1. Frozen beef: Chinese beef cooking methods are mostly based on frying, and boiling while adding many condiments. People are used to buy frozen beef products for home consumption especially for festivals opportunities.
2. Fresh beef: This is the main form of consumption of residents particularly in rural market. Most people won’t keep the beef meat more than eight hours after buying it fresh.
3. Chilled beef: this form of consumption has developed in recent years. Together with the growth of modern retailers in PRC.
Consumers' consumption preference has evolved (from fresh meat to ch
illed meat, and from fat meat to lean meat, with a tendency to high quality consumption).
Import/Export value of beef meat in PRC for the last 10 years
184,520
110,454
73,402
168,708
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Imp
ort/
Exp
ort
valu
e of
bee
f m
eat
(100
0$) Import
Export
Beef imports forecast
By 2008, USMEF (US Meat Export Federation) expects Chinese beef imports to nearly double from levels of 2004. Increases in per capita income, improvements in the frozen product distribution chain, increasingly Western tastes and lower import duties will drive such import growth.
Given the genetic constraints of the Chinese herd and the lack of intensive grain-fed production, USMEF estimates that China will face a serious challenge to meet its demand for high-quality beef with domestic sources – and will need to import more.
Chicken meat consumed in China as a % of total meat Chicken meat consumed in China as a % of total meat consumed per capita per month (2002)consumed per capita per month (2002)
Chicken meat consumption in PRC
Foreign Retailers in PRC since 1900
Foundation of Sino-Foreign Joint-Venture Retailors
Pacific DepartmentStore
Hymall
B & Q
Tesco
OBI
Metro Shanghai No.1 YaohanParkson China
Carrefour
Wal-Mart
Pricesmart MakroRT-Mart
Lotus
Trust-Mart
AnchanResources Vanguard
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
12
View from modern retailers in PRC
The Chinese meat market in modern cities is asking increasingly for more elaborate products at affordable price
Comparison of distribution chanels for meat products
Retailers
Strong developmemt of retail industry (in 2001, total sales of the 91 largest retailers in China reached Rmb 116 billion (USD 14.0 billion equivalent); with a total of 7953 retailers including: 3328 supermarkets, 271 hypermarkets, 3342 convenience stores). Modern retail chanel are becoming a fast growing sale chanel for meat products in PRC
Because of its guarantee for meat quality, more and more consumers prefer to buy meat products at supermarkets. It is believed that in the future, supermarkets and hypermarkets will replace wet markets and will become the main distribution chanel for meat products in China.
Wet markets
Most meat products in wet markets are directly supplied by slaughterhouses. Because of its lower meat price offering, this chanel is still at present the main distribution market for meat in China, particularly in the countryside.
In order to ensure meat quality and improve city sanitary condition, the PRC governments has begun to forbid these wet markets, and the share of meat purchased through this channel will be decreasing in the coming years.
Main provinces producing meat in PRC
PorkPork
BeefBeef
LambLamb
PoultryPoultry
Dairy cowDairy cow
Top 8 provinces for meat production in PRC
Heilongjiang
Sichuan/Chongqing
HenanTibet
Jilin
TianjinQinghai
Hunan
Gansu
Inner Mongolia
Anhui Shanghai
FujianJiangxi
YunnanGuizhou
Hubei
Shanxi
Shannxi
Xinjiang
Hainan
Ningxia
Zhejiang
Beijing
Hebei
Liaoning
Shandong
Jiangsu
GuangdongGuangxi
Legend: High: XXXAverage: XXLow: X
Province Pig Broiler Layer Aquaculture Dairy cows Main characteristics
Shandong XXX XXX XX XXX XX
Organized and relatively transparent market. One of the most important agricultural province. Strong power in agricultural industrialization (Longda,
Jinluo)
Guangdong XXX XXX XX XXX XXGuangdong province is ranked as No.1 in terms of
live poultry export value in China. High level of agricultural modernization
Hebei XXX XXX XX XX XXX Big agricultural products supplier to Beijing market
Henan XXX XXX X X XX Big total volume but small farming size
Sichuan XXX XX XX XX XXOne of the most important province for pig breeding.
Mostly household
Jilin XXX XX XX XX XX One of the three new live pig production areas.
Hunan XXX XX XX XX XXBiggest province of pig supply for the national
market
Heilongjiang XX XX XX XX XXXOne of the most important province for dairy cow
production
Top 8 provinces for meat production and their characteristics
An example: the Shineway Group
Backwards integration of meat processor (Ex: Shineway Group)
Shineway Group is the largest meat processor in China with total assets of RMB 6.3 billion (USD 759 million equivalent as of 2004) and 1,800,000 tons of meat products production volume, roughly 850 million USD of sales
Shineway started its business from a small meat processing company in 1969. After over 30 years development, Shineway has moved its business backward to slaughter house, breeding farm and forward to retail store.
To ensure the quality and safety of their meat products, Shineway is more and more involved in backward industries for integration. Recently Shineway just acquired a feed plant to produce feed products by themselves, which indicates the trend of the backwards integration in Shineway group.
Traceability challenges
Traceability: chances & difficulties
Chances Difficulties
1. Food safety issue promoted by government
2. Safe and high quality food products required by consumers.
1. Relatively few food enterprises in China have capacity to implement traceability for their products.
2. Additional cost for traceability procedures limit its development in China
Measures of the Chinese government related to the administration of food safety and quality
The Chinese government clearly mentions in its Tenth Five-year development plan that it will “accelerate the establishment of standard system to control agricultural products, food safety and quality” clearly putting food safety concern as a priority.
《 Food Safety Action Plan 》 《 Food Quality Insurance Program 》 《 Research on the Development Strategy of
Food Safety in China 》 《 Guidance for Establishment of Food Safety
Credit System 》( protocol )
19
Needs & Opportunities
Genetic Equipment Professional farming opportunities, especially in:
• Beef production• Dairy production
Meat exports Grain exports
China: soybean production
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Prod
uctio
n (1
0000
Mt)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Soybean Production in China
China: Soybean imports & exports:94-03
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Impo
rts/
Exp
orts
Qua
ntit
y
(Uni
t: 1
0000
tons
)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Imports Exports
Your contact:
Dr Benoit Rossignol, CEO
E-mail: [email protected]
Shanghai Office:
Tel: +86 21 6508 8020/ 6507 8328 Fax: +86 21 6507 8354
www.shiyaoinvestment.com
Shiyao Investment Ltd