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Living with our changing climate
Session:Adaptation and initiatives supporting adaptation
CSIRO Climate Research and IOCI
CSIRO Climate Capabilities
CSIRO’s long-standing multi-divisional research and expertise: Ocean processes and dynamics Atmospheric processes Atmospheric chemistry Boundary layer and land-surface interactions Hydrology Climate modelling Climate impacts Pests and invasive species Climate and water Climate and ecosystem/agriculture responses Mitigation and abatement of greenhouse gas emissions
CSIRO Climate Capabilities
Core CSIRO Climate Research and Applications: Observations, process studies, system studies, climate model development, decision support systems, applications to all sectors of the economy (from urban to rural, from industry to ecosystems)
Wealth from Oceans Flagship: Developing Ocean Prediction Capability
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship: Ensuring Sustainable Use of Australia’s Water Resources
Energy Transformed Flagship: Building Capacity for Greenhouse Mitigation
Australian Climate Change Science Program: Building National Capacity to face Climate Change
CSIRO Climate Partnerships
CSIRO’s key partnerships:
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Australian Universities
Commonwealth Government:
Australian Greenhouse Office
Royal Australian Navy
WA Government:
Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
Western Australian Marine Science Institution
State and Territory Governments & Industry clients
Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
Conceived, developed in and for Western Australia; highly effective partnership (WA State Agencies; CSIRO; Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre; Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Office)
Combines observations, modelling and applications: creating new knowledge about Western Australia’s climate
Focussed on the south-west Building regional capacity
Strategic research to assist decision making by the State partners
Science priorities determined by a user-driven panel
Climate Change Adaptation
Approaches to climate change adaptation:
Requires research on both climate change and climate variability
Requires an integrated multisectoral approach
Is directed at identifying vulnerability
Is not a linear process We can’t afford to wait until the science is ‘complete’
We can learn from current adaptive strategies
Moving from past forms of projections to probabilistic projections and risk assessment methodologies
Climate Change Adaptation
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Identifying vulnerability
Using adaptation to mitigate vulnerability
Climate Change Adaptation
Climate system
Impacted activity
Socio-economicsystem
Current climate
Future climate
Future adaptations
Current adaptations
New methodologies do not follow linear, sequential approaches
Climate Change Adaptation
Four stages of adaptation:
Autonomous adaptation (we are still within coping range)
Generic adaptation (we need interventions, but the generic level is sufficient)
Specific adaptation (interventions have to be specific to industries and to locations)
Transformative adaptation (when the change is too far outside the current range, hard decisions will have to be made)
Mitigation may help stave off the need for transformative adaptation
CSIRO Climate Change Projections
CSIRO climate projections 2030 & 2070
Probabilistic Projections
P>1oC Warming
9 GCM Patterns
6 IPCC Emission Scenarios
3 Climate Sensitivities
162 Scenarios
Probability of a 1 degree warming by 2030
Probabilistic Projections
>0% Decrease
Probability of adecreasein rainfalllarger than 0%by 2030
Probabilistic Projections
>5% Decrease
Probability of adecreasein rainfalllarger than 5%by 2030
CSIRO Activities in the West
Regional climate change, regional climate variability & SW WA rainfall/water resources
Gnangara Mound, Avon valley water
Indian Ocean dynamics, Indonesian throughflow, and impact on WA climate
Greenhouse mitigation by reducing methane emissions from livestock
Livestock and pasture production for the future
Sustainable plantation forestry, carbon sequestration
Air Quality investigations for Wagerup, Burrup Peninsula
Oil & Gas Technology (Energy Research Alliance)
Marine Research (Strategic Research Fund for the Marine Environment)
Western Australian Marine Science Institution
WA Stakeholders & Collaborators
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
WA Government (whole of Gov’t, and specific departments: Fisheries, Conservation and Land Management, EPA, ...)
WA Universities (Curtin, Western Australia, Murdoch, Edith Cowan: 14 students)
Coastal and Aquaculture CRCs Water Corporation Woodside Energy Alcoa Worsley Alumina Western Power Griffin Energy
Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Report
Priority vulnerable systems and regions Ecosystems and Biodiversity Agriculture Water Supply Settlements and Emergency Services Energy Regions: Cairns & Great Barrier Reef
Murray Darling BasinSouth West Western Australia
“regional adaptation planning requires coordination across all levels of government and the involvement of industry, scientists and community leaders”
Allen Consulting Group
