Upload
nana-ofori-tawia-adu-krow
View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 1/14
The mob hasno judgment,no discretion,no direction,
no discrimination, noconsistency.
Cicero
Madness is the
exception inindividuals but the
rule in groups.Nietzsche
When 100 cleverheads join a group,one big nincompoop
is the result.Carl Jung
Decision Making in Groups
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 2/14
Functional Model
of Decision Making
Discussion
Orientation
Implementation
DecisionReached
DecisionNo DecisionReached
OrientationPlanning theProcess
Defining theProblem
Orientation
– Development of sharedmental model
– Tendency to skip this step
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 3/14
Discussion
RememberingInformation
ExchangingInformation
ProcessingInformation
– Remembering information
• collective memory: Cross-cueing and
transactive memory• weakness in group memory: Importance of
keeping records
– Exchanging information: Acquiring andsharing data
– Processing information: Collective
review of information
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 4/14
Decision
Decision: Social decision schemes
– Delegation
– Statistical aggregation
– Voting
– Consensus (discussion to unanimity/collectivecommitment)
– Random choice
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 5/14
Implementation
– Evaluating the decision
– Adhering to the
decision: Coch and
French (1948)
Vroom’s normative model
of decision making
– Types of procedures:
Autocratic,
consultative, group
– Procedure must fit the
problem to be solved
and the decision to be
made
Implementation
DecisionReached
Evaluatingthe Decision
Adhering tothe Decision
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 6/14
Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions
Enron
Abilene paradox
Denver Airport
1.7 billion – 300 million
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 7/14
What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of
Decision-Making Groups?
Group discussion pitfalls
– Information processing limitations
– Poor communication skills– Decisional avoidance (procrastination,
bolstering, satisficing)
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 8/14
What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness ofDecision-Making Groups?
Shared information bias
– Oversampling shared information leads to poorer
decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by
considering the unshared information more closely.– Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease
(using a GDSS) the bias
Judgment errors and heuristic biases
– Sins of omission and commission– Sins of imprecision: Heuristics
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 9/14
Polarization and Risk
Group polarization: A shift in the directionof greater extremity in individuals'
responses
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 10/14
Why Do Groups Often Make Riskier Decisionsthan Individuals?
– Social comparison theory
– Persuasive-arguments theory
– “Risk-supported wins” social decisionscheme
– Diffusion of responsibility
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 11/14
Groupthink
Janis’s theory of
groupthink
– Example:Kennedy’s
advisory group
planning the
Bay of Pigs“covert op”
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 12/14
Symptoms of Groupthink
I. Overestimation of the group
1. illusion of invulnerability
2. illusion of morality
II. Close-mindedness3. rationalizations
4. stereotypes about the outgroup
III. Pressures toward uniformity
5. self-censorship6. the illusion of unanimity
7. direct pressure on dissenters
8. self-appointed mindguards
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 13/14
GR O U
P T H I N K
R E S U L T S
/ O U T C OME S
………….……. C A U
S E S
…………
……….…
8/3/2019 LO 10 Decision Making 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lo-10-decision-making-2011 14/14
How Can Groupthink Be Prevented?
Limiting premature seeking of concurrence:
• Open style of leadership (not directive)
• Devil’s advocate
• Subgroup discussions
Correcting misperceptions and biases:
• Bring in outside experts
Using effective decision-making techniques:• Robert’s Rules