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Final Report of 1st Batch of CCAI Local Demonstration Projects
Local Demonstration Project on Climate Change-1st Batch
Final Report of Local Demonstration Project in Country
Specific project title: Huay Saneng Sub Basin Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Project Period covered: 12 Months, 1 June, 2014 to 31 May 2015
Date: 18 April, 2016
Author:
Contact:
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Table of Contents
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Acknowledgements
The completion of this undertaking could not have been possible without the participation and
assistance of so many people whose name may not all be enumerated. Their contributions are sincerely
appreciated and gratefully acknowledged. However, the group would like to express their deep
appreciation and indebtedness particularly to the following:
The Project Working Group, Mr Chanchai Piyanuch, Mrs, Wachiraporn Kerdsuk, Mr. Porlee
Kaewplang, Mrs.Warissaralee Kaewplang, Mr.Sakda Chuein, Mr. Sawaeng Ketin, Mr. Sangwian
Pradermdi, Mr. Nit Panya, Mr Somporn Nonntapanaborworn, Mr. Daorung Polkerd, Mrs. Sukjai
Sompongpan, Dr. Natthapong Prommitr, Mr. Krerkkiat Kumalasing, Mr. Peeradon Chanteerawong and
Mrs. Sathitaporn Chumputsar.
The Local Administrative Office (LAO), Surin Provincial Irregation Office (SPIO), Rachamangala University Thecnology of Isan, Surin Campus.
We would like to give special thanks to Water Resources Office Region 5 for their technical support and
advice.
At last, we greatly apprciated Mekong River Commision (MRC) for finacial support which helps us
established the foundation of climate change adaptation work in Huay Saneng Basin. We do hope to
continue the work with your support.
Sincerely yours,
Dr Wichian Kerdsuk
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Executive Summary
Mekong River Commission (MRC), under Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Programme (CCAI) for
“Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Planning”, implemented in the Mekong River
Basin and among 4 MRC Member Countries-Lao PDR, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. The overall
goal of the CCAI project is to initiate development planning activities on climate change impact
assessment, adaptation and capacity building plan of stakeholders and target communities, and
supporting community adaptation plan integrated into the local and central governments’ planning
system.
It is evident clearly that northeast Thailand is the hardest-hit area by climate impact while severe
drought and flood increases over years at various landscapes. The significant effect of climate change
is wet season coming lately and rainfall deficit longer than previously. It affects to land preparation for
paddy field particularly jasmine rice which is the important agriculture product of northeast Thailand.
The TNMC and Thailand DWR of Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, with kind financial and
technical supports by the MRCS, assigned the Mun RBO to be in charge of implementation of Thailand
CCAI project, Phase II. The Mun RBO selects the Huay Saneng Sub River Basin to be the site under
investigation. Huay Saneng is a tributary of and located in the eastern part of Lam Chi River. The Lam
Chi River is a tributary of Mun River Basin which is located in the Lower Mekong Region in Thailand
(5T), covering areas of 6 districts in Surin Province. Huay Saneng is one of vulnerable areas to
hazardous or stressor conditions from climate variability in Southeast Asia.
The Mekong River Commission (MRC-CCAI) and Thai National Mekong Committee Secretariat (TNMCS)
have agreed to implement the project on May 30, 2014. It is one of the two pilot areas implementing the
project in Phase 2 in Thailand in parallel with the identical project conducted in the Yang River.
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Climate Change Adaptation Initiative in Huay Saneng Basin aims to;
1) Assess climate change impacts on socio-economy climate risks, methods and tools that assist
and support executives and stakeholders in climate change adaptation planning and decision-
making.
2) Assess vulnerability and adaptation of people in communities that leads to climate change
adaptation plan based on integration of community-based knowledge and experience.
3) Build capacity and raise awareness of climate change for stakeholders and community leaders,
including learning and sharing adaptation experience in the project areas to other areas in the
future.
The project is implemented with integration and participation of all sectors, including government,
private and civil sectors and divided into 3 working groups; academic, civil and administrative
groups with its main working procedure in 14 steps as follows:
1) Introduction of Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Programme in Huay Saneng Basin.
2) Organization of workshop or academic conference on climate change database in the past-
present-future.
3) Collection of basic information, including physical and biological data in both primary and
secondary states. Preparation of database of geographical information system and tools used in
decision-making and planning processes with regard to climate change in Huay Saneng Basin.
4) Survey and selection of climate models to be used in researching impacts of climate change on
the future rice yields in Huay Saneng Basin.
5) Assessment of risk, exposure and adaptation of communities under climate variability by using a
questionnaire to interview local agriculturists who are affected by climate change over the past
years, including floods, dry-spell and group meetings with local communities.
6) Assessment of impacts on local rice yields by utilizing DSSAT Crop Model.
7) Meeting to transfer tools for planning and decision-making processes with regard to climate
change at the community level.
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8) Development of indicators and indexes used selecting a project pilot center.
9) Workshop on assessment of present risk, vulnerability and adaptive capability of communities in
Huay Saneng Basin.
10) Workshop on livelihood and adaptive of communities under climate variability from the past to
present.
11) Training on creating awareness and mutual understanding with regard to climate change for
community leaders in leaders in Huay Saneng Basin.
12) Workshop on climate change impacts and adaptation of community for community leaders in
Huay Saneng Basin.
13) Exhibition to disseminate results of Climate Change Adaptation Initiative in Huay Saneng Basin.
14) Meeting to summaries findings and lessons learned from the project to be disseminated and
shared at the local and national levels.
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Background
The Mekong River Commission (MRC) Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) has started
implementation since August 2009 as a regional collaborative to support the Lower Mekong Basin
(LMB) countries in adapting to the impacts and new challenges of climate change. Adopting a basin –
wide integrated approach consistent with IWRM principles and the MRC 1995 Agreement, one of the
four key outcomes of the CCAI is “Adaptation planning and implementation is piloted and
demonstrated”. Under this outcome, CCAI Activity 1.2.1 CCAI Local Demonstration Project, which is
designed to implement by the Member Countries (MCs), is perceived by all the MCs as important
learning –by –doing adaptation planning and implementation processes in collaboration with local
government and vulnerable communities. The CCAI demonstration project aim (i) to test the planning
methods developed at the local level. (ii). Identify adaptation options including those based upon local
experience and knowledge; and (iii). Ultimately where feasible put them into practice.
In 2009, the CCAI initiated a series of demonstrations of climate change adaptation projects. The first
batch of CCAI local demonstration projects was started in 2010, and these were largely completed by
the end of 2012. A second round of support to demonstration projects was initiated in 2012. This
includes the continuation of demonstration projects at the same sites, as well as projects at newly
identified sites.
For Thailand, the 2nd batch local demonstration projects are selected as 2 separate projects, one at
Nam Young Basin in Kalasin and Roi-et provinces, the other in Huay Saneng Basin in Surin province.
This TOR is for the project “Huay Saneng Basin Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Project” and
prepared based on the project proposal (Annex I) and the letter No. 0630/1555 by the Thai National
Mekong Committee Secretariat (TNMCS).
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Goal and objectives
1. To assess the impact of extreme climate event on socio-economic condition, climate hazards, to
assist and support to local authority and stakeholders in local planning and decision making,
supporting methods and tools for adaptation planning to address climate change;
2. To conduct vulnerability and adaptation assessment in sub-district level in order to develop
action plan for adaptation to climate change for community based practice in integrating local
knowledge and their experiences;
3. To build capacity and awareness raising on climate change focusing on the vulnerability and
adaptation assessment for local authority and stakeholders. To decrypt lessons learned and
share experience from demonstration site project for the future development in country.
Methodology
The project emphasized on integrated approaches and comprised of 3 working groups as
follow: 1) Technical Working Group, 2) Public Working Group, and 3) Administrative Working
Group. Each Working Group responsible for action plan implementation and coordinated
between each other since the project has started until the end. There were regular monthly
meetings as shown in project photos 1.2
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Photos 1.2 The project framework.
Photo 1.3 Process of work on Climate Change Adaption of Huay Saneng Basin
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Activities:
The project activities and process framework was shown in photo 1.3. The detailed activities as follow:
1.1.1 Opening project by meeting with each sector and relate agencies in Surin province. The
opening ceremony on September 10, 2015 was addressed by Surin Governor and it was at
Surin Provincial Irrigation Office. Project representatives described concept, objective, activities
and goal of the project. The meeting successful engaged with 99 participants which included
private sectors, Local Administrative Organization, NGOs, institutes and people network and 32
women joined. It was a good opportunity for the project to raise awareness and promoted
project which will benefit for integrated planning and response to the Climate Change.
Photo 1.4 Project Opening ceremony addressed by Surin Governor.
Photo 1.5 The project opening ceremony was held on September 11, 2015 at Surin Provincial
Irrigation Office.
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1.1.2 Action meeting for academic consult and data base of climate variability in past, present and
climate change in future. The technical consultation meeting was held on October 28, 2015 at
Thongtarin Hotel, Surin with a focusing on database of Climate Change from past, present and
the future trend. There were 66 representatives from related agencies in Surin and the region
attended the meeting and 16 women actively joined the dialouge.
Photo 1.6 Technical Consultation meeting on climate change database was held on October 28,
2015.
1.1.3 Collected physical, biological and weather data (1st data and 2nd data) of demonstrate area from
related agencies. The project established GIS database and tools for planning and decision making
process on Climate Change in Huay Saneng Basin by studied the present scenario and compared with
data collection from the past and trend of Climate Change in the future.
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1.1.4 Data analysis and introduced data to geographic information system. The project conducted a
survey and selected the Climate Model that can be used to study impact of rice production in Huay
Saneng Basin. Data from item 1.1.3 was used to analyse flood risk and drought risk in this area. In each
map risk illustrated detail in sub-district and villages and weather data in the area during 1951-2014. It
used to change analysis of average annual temperature, minimum and maximum annual temperature,
rain and rain day. Besides, analysis of number of day which has temperature less than 16 and more
than 35 c. The map produce shown in annex 1.
1.2.1 Conducted a review and selected the outputs of climate modelling and downscaling from the
selected programs. From the review, there were two kind of modelling that suitable for study climate
change in Huay Saneng sub basin; the Global climate model or General circulation models (GCMs) and
regional climate models (RGM). It is found that climate projection in Thailand based on IPCC-SRES and
IPCC-RCP and almost climate projection is downscaling of GCMs. Climate projection based on IPCC-
SRES; i.e. GISS, GFD3, CCCM, GF01, UK80, UKMO, HADCM, CCAM, GCM, GFL -R30, MM5-RCM,
GFDL30R, ECHAM4 –PRESIS and RegCM3. Climate projection based on IPCC-RCP. It is also found
that women has important role of reviewing and selecting climate model for studying impact of climate
change in the study area.
1.2.2 Identify and develop appropriate methods and tools of climate modelling and downscaling for
adaptation planning in the area. From studying item 1.2.1, Thailand has no Global Climate Model and
Regional Climate Model. Thailand previously used Global Climate Model from foreign country or agency
and downscaling method to Regional Climate Model for studies climate projection. It is costly to
develop climate model and it needs specific knowledge of climate model. Thus, the best method is
downscaling Global Climate Model by collaboration with foreign agency to Regional Climate Model or
use Regional Climate Model that already developed. The present climate projections in Thailand based
on IPCC_RCP, new generation of emission scenarios of IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The new
set of four scenarios are; 1) RCP3-PD 2) RCP4.5 3) RCP6 and 4) RCP8.5. The downscaling of new set of
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those scenario carried out by using both statistical and dynamical approaches. For Huay Saneng
Project will use RCM data of ECHAM4 –PRESIS under both A2 and B2 scenarios unless MRC has new
RGM and available for running Crop model or any other.
1.2.3 Identify and develop appropriate methods and tools for assessing climate hazard, community and
including gender perspective. The appropriate method for assessing climate hazard and communities in
the project area can be divided into 4 groups depends on climate risk; 1) Flood risk assessment 2)
Drought risk assessment 3) Cold risk assessment , and 4)Land slide assessment. There are three
methods for flood risk assessment i.e. 1) Geographic Information System by using overlay function and
spatial analysis of cause of flood factors 2) Satellite or aerial photograph and 3) community
participation action assessment. For drought risk assessment, there are two method:1) Geographic
Information System by using overlay function and spatial analysis of cause of drought factors , and 2)
community participation action assessment. For cold risk assessment, there are two methods that
suitable: 1) Geographic Information System by using spatial analysis of temperature indicator or air
temperature less than 150 C which is continually for 3 days or more, and 2) use information from
Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. And for land slide assessment, the appropriate
method is using Geographic Information System by overlay function and spatial analysis of cause of
land slide factors such as rainfall, slope, land use, soil and rock type ete.
It is found that women can participate in assessing climate hazard by giving information and discussion
during risk assessment process.
1.2.4 Introduce and disseminate methods and tools to concerned local authorities and other
stakeholders. The workshop was held on February 17-18, 2015 at Sub-district Administrative
Organization (SAO), Surin. The team introduced the project overview and described method and results
for adaptation planning, impact of climate changes, vulnerability and adaptation assessment to local
authorities and stakeholder in Huay Saneng Basin. i.e. flood risk assessment, drought risk assessment,
cold risk assessment, land slide assessment and questionnaire. Participants actively discussed and
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planned to use the project result for future plan on climate change adaptation developed by civil
society. There were 23% women of total participants.
Annex 1: Risk Maps in HuaySaneng Basin.
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Figure 2 Flood and drought risk map of Huay Saneng Basin
Figure 3 Annual rainfall in Huay Saneng Basin during year 1951 to 2014.
2.1.1 Questionnaire design for risk assessment, exposure and adaptation methods to climate
variability. Project team leader designed questionnaire of risk and vulnerability assessment for Huay
Saneng Basin. Project team and Huay Saneng Basin workgroup arranged meetings to discuss about
questionnaire. There were 20 persons from 10 local government agencies and Huay Saneng Basin
workgroup. The questionnaire towards “Risk Vulnerability and Coping Capacity to change of climate”
focused on the agricultural system in the area where has 3 items; 1) general household information 2)
impacted and adaptation measures to drought and hot air 3) impacted and adaptation to flood. There
were 6 women attended the three meetings and they helped set detailed questionnaire.
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2.1.2 Survey, collection data and interviewing by using questionnaire.
In May to July, 2015, the team led by Mrs. Warisaralee Kaewplang has conducted a survey in 12
districts target area where they selected by using information derived from activity 1.1.4
(drought, flood, drought and flood risk map). There were 400 Head of households were interviewed by
400 questionnaires. It is found that 21.4 % is flood risk, 55.4 % is drought risk, 19.2 % is both flood and
drought risk and other is not impacted. 179 women or 44.75% of total cases were interviewed.
Photo 1.7 Questionnaire survey in 12 districts target area. The survey led by Ms.Warisaralee Keawplang
and teams.
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2.1.3 Workshop of risk, vulnerability of system /community to climate change and coping capacity to
climate variability. The workshop was held on July 13, 2015 at Thongtarin Hotel, Surin. Dr.Vichien
Kerdsuk introduced project overview, the results of assess of climate change impact ,vulnerability and
adaptation assessment of Huay Saneng Basin and the synthesis result of questionnaire on risk
assessment, exposure and adaptation methods to climate variability. The participants were divided into
two groups; drought risk and flood and drought. They were assigned to discuss the issues related to
risk to climate, vulnerability of system/ community to climate change and coping capacity to climate
variability. Participants also discussed about vulnerability of agriculture system, household and health.
The results of the meeting indicated that there are 4 risks to climate change which included flood risk,
drought risk, summer storm risk, and health risk. Flood and drought impacted to agriculture production,
summer storm impacted to household. Although people in community has many measure to cope the
impacted of climate risk but only a few decreasing. In summarize, vulnerability of agricultural system
especially rice and household in community in this area are high vulnerability. Vulnerability of people’s
health from high temperature is low vulnerability because people have traditional self-care and there is
a good health care system provided by Ministry of Thai Public Health. It is found that local wisdom that
shared by participants could help solve drought and flood in the study area.
2.2.1 Evaluation impact of climate to rice production by crop model programme. The MRB-Rice shell
was used for evaluation impact of rice production in Huay Saneng Basin. This MRB-Rice was developed
by Multiple Crop Research Centre (MCC) and SEA START RC (2004). In this shell feature CERES-Rice
(DSSAT4) link with spatial database and GIS program. Crop model simulated weather data from the
EXCHAM4-PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) climate model, A2 and B2
Scenario, which cover four periods (year 1980-89, 2040-49, 2050-59 and 2060-69) with1980-1989 as
base year. Under A2 and B2 Scenario, KDML105 rice yield has trend to increase than the base year. It
is found that average rice yield under A2 and B2 Scenario when compared with base year has trend to
increase 5.28, 4.18 and 5.16 percentages in the year 2040-49, 2050-59 and 2060-69 respectively.
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(Average rice yield in base year is 15.12 thousand ton). The report of the future climate change in
Mekong region, similar to global scale which will be warmer. It is also likely to be wetter. Climate model
simulations projections trends towards greater precipitation and higher intensity precipitation in the
rainy season, which would increase the magnitude and possibly the frequency of flood in this area.
However CERES-Rice is not responding to flood situation. Although, rice yield of crop simulation is
increase in the future. Actual rice yield in the future will be decreased than the present because of more
frequency flood. In this study, climate model of MRC was not used to run simulation model because it
was not a standard form for input data of MRB-Rice shell and it has to calibrate and validate data before
use it to run simulation.
2.2.2 Rice yield validation. The result of KDML105 rice yield simulation (Simulated: SIM) in the base
year (year 1980-89) in activity 2.2.1 was compared with observed rice yield (Observed: OBS) of
agriculture economies office and data of agriculture extension in Surin province in the year 1980-89). It
is found that simulated rice yield was higher than observed rice yield. Standard deviation was 152.6 and
143.52 kilogram/rai. Agreement index was 0.78. Then, adjusted simulated rice yield nearby observed
rice yield and rerun crop model. The output of KDML105 rice yield simulation was range 401-770
kilogram/rai. KDML105 rice yield in Heay Saneng was 15.12 thousand ton and coefficient of variation
was 3.56-25.11. The results of rice yield validation in this activity was used to rerun rice simulation in
activity 2.2.1 The results of impact of climate change to KDML105 rice yield is appear in activity 2.2.1.
2.2.3 Action meeting to brain storm of livelihood and community adaptation to climate variability. The
workshop was held on 28 July 2015 at Thongtarin Hotel. There were 67 participants attended the
meeting. Dr.Vichien Kerdsuk introduced project overview and sustainable livelihood concept. Then,
participants were divided into three groups; water source, middle and end of the river. They were
assigned to discuss the issue related to livelihood under climate change and normal situation. The
participants actively discussion after completed the presentation of each group. The result found that
their livelihood depends on farming system, adaptation capacity and household location whether near
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or far from the river. The people who live in water source of watershed area generated income from rice,
cassava and para-rubber. People who live in middle of watershed generated income from rice and
cassava. While in the end of the river, main income generation from rice. Besides, income generation
from crop cultivation, almost every household has extra income from off farm such as labour in
downtown.
2.3.1 Develop the selection criteria and identify demonstration site activity. There were 23 people
attended brainstorm meeting and discussed about criteria and demonstration site activity in Heay
Saneng. As a result, there were 5 criteria and 6 indicators defined: 5 criteria are 1) risk area, 2)
Community adaptation ability, 3) Wisdom people 4) workplace, and 5) Responsibility agencies in the
area; 6 indicators are 1) Risk and frequency of flood and drought risk 2) Adaption measure to climate
risk 3) Ratio of people in communities which adapted to climate change. 4) No.of wisdom people which
active in the communities 5) Demonstration sites, 6) Interest and responsibility of agencies in long term.
The criteria and indicators will be put in form and send to civil society. Then, Huay Saneng Committee
will select demonstration site again. Regarding to maintaining the centre after the project finish, Huay
Saneng Committee has planned to sign agreement with civil society. Rajamangala University of
Technology Surin campus, community network and self-insufficient economy centre will responsible to
coordinate.
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Photo 1.8 Consultation meeting to transfer knowledge and tools for planning process and decision making on climate change adaptation at household level.
2.3.2 Conduct survey climate hazards, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for demonstration site.
The survey on climate hazards was conducted in three areas of Huay Saneng Basin included water
source, middle and the end of the river. There were 30 key informants from 5 districts interviewed by
RRA method. It is found that climate change impacted to agriculture. Impact of climate change to
agriculture sector vary depends on crop type or farming system and location. Main crop in this basin is
feature rice, cassava, sugarcane and para rubber. Crop in the river source was effected from climate
change less than middle and river mouth because in the river source area grew crop which less
sensitive to climate risk than other sites such as para rubber, sugarcane and cassava. While in the
middle and river mouth of Huay Saneng Basin almost grew rice. Rice is sensitivity to climate risk than
field crop and horticulture.
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2.3.3 Assess of climate change impacts, and vulnerability and adaptation assessment for demonstration site. As a result of key informants interviewed by RRA method in 3 areas covered water sources, middle and the end of the river, climate risk were classified as 4 risks includes: 1) drought risk 2) flood risk 3) summer storm, and 4) health risk. Climate change impacted to agriculture, livelihood and heath. Farmers have adaptation strategies to reduce risk in each crop, include health adaptation, and livelihood adaptation. All adaptation measure to climate risk is autonomous adaptation. The agriculture adaptations are mainly focus on reduction sensitivity to climate well, which includes water management, crop management, changing technique as well as crop calendar and seed variety, multiple crop/integrated farming and livestock. However, farmers/communities in Huay Saneng Basin remains medium to high vulnerability to climate risk both agriculture sector and livelihood especially house that was risk to summer storm.
Figure 2 Dissemination method and tools to concerned local authorities and stakeholders.
Figure 3 Questionnaire survey by interviewed farmers in climate risk area.
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Figure 4 KDML105 rice simulation during year 1989-89, 2040-49, 2050-59 and 2060-69
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Figure 5 Summer storm risk map in Huay Saneng Basin.
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Figure 6 impacted of drought to sugarcane in early July 2015
Figure 7 Development small irrigation canal to grow 2nd rice crop after flood diminish.
Figure 8 Raised bed to grow cassava for decrease damage yield.
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Figure 9 The workshop on risk, vulnerability of system /community to climate change and coping capacity to climate
variability was held on 13 July 2015 at Thongtarin Hotel.
3.1.1 Training of conscious and awareness to understand climate change and existence under climate change. The training was held on September 17, 2015 at Thongtarin Hotel and led by Ms.Warissalee Kaewplang and teams. The learning process and participation action research method were used for conscious and awareness raising training: firstly, illustration by video of global warming, situation and impacted of climate change in Thailand. Secondly, Dr.Vichien Kerdsuk displayed situation, impacted of climate change in Huay Saneng Basin. Thirdly, the participants were divided into 3 groups and they were assigned to discuss regarding to questions: 1) what do you think about climate change and its impacted in this area? 2) What do you plan to do to respond to climate change in the future? Fourthly, each group presented the results of group discussion. The result of this meeting are: 1) participants agreed that climate change is real phenomenon in the world and Heay Saneng Basin. 2) Everyone and all sectors come together to reduce global warming, its impacts and increase adaptation to climate change in the future. There were 55.7% women of total participants. They actively provided feedback and discussion.
3.1.2 Meeting of stakeholders in demonstration area with official and regional agency. The workshop was held on September 24, 2015 at Thongtarin Hotel, Surin. Aimed to focus on each Sub-district Administration Organization (SAO) in Huay Saneng Basin. Dr.Vichien Kerdsuk displayed the results of project study included risk, impacted and vulnerability of system to climate change. Then, the participants were divided into 3 groups to discuss and respond to these questions: 1) what do you think about climate change and its impacts in this area? 2) What do you think about the illustration in this morning? 3) What and how do you plan to do in the future? The results of discussion are: 1) the study
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shall do it in small scale such as Sub district Administrative Organization(SAO) in the future 2) Helps SAO set strategic plan to support climate change adaptation and to resilience and robustness of community. There were 22.7% women of total participants attended the meeting and two of them actively presented about what to do in the future to response to climate change.
3.1.3 Meeting of Huay Saneng watershed committee. The workshop was held at Suanpa resort and Thongtarin Hotel, Surin with aimed for planning, monitoring, stimulating and summarize project activities. There were 25% women attended the meeting and helped set work plan and ideas of meeting. All these women are Huay Saneng Committee members.
3.1.4 Exhibition day for Public transfer of community climate change adaptation. The exhibition took place at Rajamangala University of Technology Esan, Surin Campus on October 2015. The exhibition displayed the project results by posters and pamphlets. There were also the debate on climate change adaptation methods and measures by 5 local wisdom representatives: Mr.Tikhamporn Singha, Mr.Sutisak Kaewkhamjun, Mrs.Wichitra shinpakdee and Mr.kait pramoonsri. As a results, the participants acknowledged methods to cope with risk and impacted of climate change in the pilot projects. They could apply adaptation method suit for them. There were 28.4% women of total participants. Besides, 4 children joined the meeting as well. They interested in posters and pamphlet.
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3.1.5 Organize workshop to present the result findings and lessons learned for dissemination and sharing the results with local, national. The workshop was held on October 20, 2015 at Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Surin Campus. It was comprise of various stakeholders such as student, government officials and Non-Government Organization (NGOs). There was debate and exchange knowledge of climate change adaptation measure between Nam Yang Basin and Huay Saneng Basin. Dr.Jongkol Pimvapee from Water for Life Institute (WLI) presented the water management under climate change situation. Mr.Rachapat ratanawaha from Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Khon kaen Campus. Presented experiences of Nam Yang Basin project. Dr.Vichien Kerdsuk displayed the results of project study included risk, impacted and vulnerability of system to climate change. Mrs. Sumana Laochai shared her experiences in flood and drought management in Nam Yang Basin. Mr.Pisan chinpakdee and Mr.kiat pamoonsri who is representative of Huay Saneng Basin exchanged experiences of climate change adaptation with representative of Nam Yang Basin. There were 43% women of total participants in the meeting. Besides, there were students and other participants really interested in climate change adaptation method, as a result observation from the meeting.
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Result
a. Outputs
1.1 Database for supporting process of community climate change adaptation and decision. 1.2 History weather data and forecast weather data of demonstrate area.
1.3 Methods and development tools for adaptation planning, impact of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation assessment. 2.1 Questionnaire for risk assessment, exposure and adaptation methods to climate variability
2.2 Report of survey, risk and vulnerability analyzed
2.3 Results of risk, risk map, vulnerability of system/community to climate change and coping capacity to climate variability
2.4 Criteria to select learning center
2.5 Study result on rice yield under climate variability
2.6 Report of livelihood adaptation of people in Huay Saneng Basin.
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3.1 Stakeholders in project area participate in activities and have conscious to save the world and existence under climate change.
3.2 Minutes of meeting with stakeholders in demonstration area and regional agency.
3.3 Coordinate working between stakeholder in Huay Saneng with official agencies in province and
b. Outcomes
1. Database system for supporting process of community climate change adaptation and decision. 2. Methods and tools for adaptation planning, impact of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation assessment. 3. Impact of climate change, and evaluate risk, vulnerability and adaptation assessment, and adaptation planning practices for Huay Saneng Basin. 4. Impact of climate change to rice production system, livelihood and community. 5. Demonstration site project for learning and transfer climate change adaptation for Huay Saneng Basin. 6. Provincial capacity strengthened and awareness raising in policy making and planning for adaptation to climate change.
4. Conclusions
The overall CCAI project activities could be attained and fulfilling the study objectives set forth.
Development of CCAI policy and planning process in Thailand is still infancy and new National
CCA strategic Plan is now undergone as a draft document for public hearing and comments.
The CCA is indeed largely not well understood by both government officers and general public
unlike the mitigation approach is more widely advocated.
The project team reviewed documents and interviewing authorities find that currently, at national
level, Thailand has no CCA Policy and Strategy Framework while now the country has only
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finished the second draft of CCA Strategic Plan available for public hearing and comments. At
the lower tiers, provincial and local governments, there is no evident of the CCA plan and
activities existed within their policy and planning framework. However, collection physical,
biological and weather data (1st data and 2nd data) of Huay Saneng sub watershed and Surin
Province from related agency such as water body from water resource division, land use from
Land Development Department, weather data during year 1951 to 2014 of Surin province from
Surin Meteorology Office, flood image from Geo-Informatics and Space Technology
Development Agency (public organization), medium irrigation system from Surin provincial
Irrigation Project and Royal Irrigation Department, disaster data from Department of Disaster
Prevention and Mitigation, Physical infrastructure and admistration data from Department of
Local Admistration and Surin Provincial Office and agriculture data and information from Surin
Agriculture Extension Office. The data are used to analysis of flood risk, drought risk (based on
physical, hydrological and meteorology and both of flood and drought risk in Huay Saneng sub
basin. In each map risk has detail in sub-district and village. Weather data in the area during
year 1951-2014. It used to change analysis of average annual temperature, minimum and
maximum annual temperature, rain and rain day. Besides, analysis of number of day which has
temperature less than 16 and more than 35 degree Celcius. So, climate data in Huay Saneng
Basin from 1951-2014 suggests that an amount of annual total rainfall and the lowest –highest
temperature have an upward tendency, while a number of raining day have a downward
tendency.
The project team also reviewed Global climate model or General circulation models (GCMs) and
regional climate models (RGM) which is suitable study climate change in Huay Saneng sub
watershed. It found that climate projection in Thailand based on IPCC-SRES and IPCC-RCP.
Almost climate projection is downscaling of GCMs. Climate projection based on IPCC-SRES; i.e
GISS, GFD3, CCCM, GF01, UK80, UKMO, HADCM, CCAM, GCM, GFL –R30, MM5-RCM,
GFDL30R, ECHAM4-PRESIS and RegCM3. Climate projection based on IPCC-RCP; i.e. GCM-
GFDL-ESM2M, GCM-HadGEM2-ES, GCM-MPI-ESM-LR and RegCM4, the result for the impact
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study of climate change on rice production but project is in its initial stage.But available data of
climate projection for impact study of climate change in Huay Saneng sub watershed are only 2
RCMs; 1) CCAM and 2) ECHAM4-PRESIS with projected the future change of climate over
Thailand under both A2 and B2 scenarios.
However, Thailand has not both the Glocal Climate Model and Regional Climate Model owner.
From the past until now, the studies climate projection of Thailand used Global Climate Model
from from foreign country or agency and downscaling mrthod to Regional Climate Model. The
study projects were to joint or did it under country study program. Because of the development
climate model uses very much investment and specific knowledge of climate model. The best
method for development climate projection for Thailand is downscaling Global Climate Model by
collaboration with foreign agency to Regional Climate Model or use Regional Climate Model that
already developed it and use it for adaptation planning in the area of interest. Ongoing of
climate projections in Thailand based on IPCC_RPC, new generation of emaission scenerios of
IPCC ‘s 5th Asessment Report (AR5). The new set of scenerion are; 1) RCP3-PD 2) RCP 4.5 3)
RCP 6 and 4)RCP 8.5 The scaling of new set of those scenerio carried out using both
statistical and dynamic approachs. For Huay Saneng Project will use RCM data of ECHAM4-
PRESIS under both A2 and B2 scenerios unless MRC has new RGM and available for running
Crop model or any other.
Assessment of risk, exposure and adaptation of communities under climate variability by using a
questionnaire to interview local agriculturists who are affected by climate change over the past
years, including floods, dry-spell and group meetings with local communities. The project team
was introduce the project to village leadership, select and make an appointment with
interviewee for interviewing in the next week. They use questionnaire to interview head of
household and collect data amount 400 questionnaires. It is found that 21.4 % is flood risk, 55.4
% is drought risk, 19.2 % is both flood and drought risk and other is not impacted.
Climate change result in 5 risky incidences in Huay Saneng Basin as follows:
1) Flood, 2) Dry spell, 3) Flood-Dry spell, 4) Thunderstorm and 5) Health problems.
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The project team also found that the appropriate method for assessing climate hazard and community
in the project area can divided into 4 groups depend on climate risk; 1) Flood risk assessment 2)
Drought risk assessment 3) Cold risk assessment and 4) Land slide assessment. Women can
participate in assessment climate hazard by giving information and discussion during doing risk
assessment process.
Flood prone areas in Huay Saneng Basin at the low (1-3 yrs) and medium level (4-7 yrs) are covering
areas of 76,997 Rai and 9,105.0 Rai respectively while dry spell prone areas in Huay Saneng Basin at
the low and medium level are covering 1,304,770.34 Rai and 165, 806.91 respectively.
Huay Saneng Basin faced flood Dry Spell prone areas in 2 levels which are low and medium level are
covering 23,855 .49 Rai and 855.62 Rai.
Almost the entire areas in Huay Saneng Basin are affected by thunderstorm (78.7 % of all districts) while
the area with more than 50% of annual thunderstorm occurrence (27% of all districts) and every year-
thunderstorm prone areas are 6.4% of all districts.
Health risk: most family members are risk to hot climate 96.88%
Climate change causes communities in Huay Saneng Basin to encounter drought problems 58.75 %
while the reminder, 31.25% faces both flood-drought problems and flood problems 3.5%. In addition,
climate change affects communities in 4 aspects as follow: 1. Crop production, 2 living, 3 public health,
and 4 habitats.
Climate change has impacts on local economic productions, including rice, cassava, sugarcane,
And Para rubber, causing household incomes to decrease by 55% on average. The impacts of drought
and flood cause agriculturists to go out and earn from the outside agriculture sector to compensate the
missing incomes. For health risk caused by hot weather lead people to illnesses and need to have
medical treatment from nursing home 19.79%. Additionally, climate change also intensifies
thunderstorms with more frequency. As a result, many households are significantly damaged in a year-
which is different in each basin area.
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With regard to risk and impacts of climate change over the past years, the agriculturalist and local
communities have implemented adaptive actions to such impacts and risk occurring in Huay Saneng
Basin in 7 aspects as follows: 1) rice production in inundated and dry-spell areas, 2)cassava
production, 3) sugarcane for factory production, 4) para rubber production, 5)health,
6)consumption water, and 7)livelihood.
In terms of vulnerabilities, climate change brings about the vulnerability at the medium level to
production of rice and sugarcane and the low level to production of cassava, para rubber and public
health due to the hot weather. However, it cause the high level of vulnerability to aquatic animal
production and households.
For the study of impact and assessment of adaptive approaches to climate change according to data
and information from the climate models that are widely used, such as PRECIS, C-CAM, and so on, the
output of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4 from Max Planck Institute of Meteorology
and German Climate computing Centre in Germany were used as primary data and detailed
calculations were additionally carried out by the regional climate model-PRECIS(Providing Regional
Climates for Impacts Studies) at high resolution of grid size 20x20 km and based on emission scenario
A2 and B2 with the 1980-1989 baseline after that making a comparison with actual measurements done
at weather stations.
As a result, the findings from the studies suggested that Chi-Mun Rivers Basin would have the average
highest temperature approximately 31-33 c for all year round and would rise to approximately 33-37 c
at the end of this century. In this area would face a longer period of hot weather throughout the year
than at present and future summer would be 2 times longer than the present-which the lower Mekong
Area would have a longer period of hot weather throughout the year than the Upper-Mekong Area.
While the amount of annual rainfall tends to rise continually until the end of century and most areas
might have increase in rainfall amount up to 10-15% at the middle of century and 25% at the end of
century, particularly in the upstream area of Chi and Mun Rivers that would encounter heavier rain than
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the past. This probably signifies the risk of flash flood, flood and several kinds of natural disasters that
might occur after an inundation.
Evaluation impact of climate to rice production by crop model program. Evaluation impact of rice
production in Huay Saneng sub basin use MRB-Rice shell that developed by Multiple Crop Research
Centre (MCC) and SEA START RC (2004). In this shell feature CERES-Rice (DSSAT4) link with spatial
database and GIS program. Crop model simulated weather data from the EXCHAM4-PRECIS (Providing
Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) climate model, A2 and B2 Scenario, which cover four periods
(year 1980-89, 2040-49, 2050-59 and 2060-69) with 1960-1989 as base year. Under A2 and B2
Scenario, KDML105 rice yield has trend increase than the base year. It is found that average rice yield
under A2 and B2 Scenario when compared with base year has trend to increase 5.28, 4.18 and 5.16
percentages in the year 2040-49, 2050-59 and 2060-69 respectively. (Average rice yield in base year is
15.12 thousand ton). The report of the future climate change in Mekong region, like much of the world,
will be warmer. It is also likely to be wetter. Climate model simulations projections trends towards
greater precipitation and higher intensity precipitation in the rainy season, which would increase the
magnitude and possibly the frequency of flood in this area. However, CERES-Rice is not responding to
flood situation. Although, rice yield of crop simulation is increase in the future. Actual rice yield in the
future will be decrease than the present because of more frequency flood. In this study, Climate Model
of MRC is not use to run simulation model because it is not standard form of input data of MRB-Rice
shell and it have to calibrate and validate data before use it to run simulation.
Assessment of impacts on local rice yields by utilizing DSSAT Crop Model. Assessment result of
jasmine rice 105 yield by regional climate model. Overall the Jasmin Rice 105 yields grown in the in-
season periods from 2040-2049, 2050-2059 and 2060-2069, the average of rice yields calculated by the
regional climate model A2 tends to decline by 2.38%, - 2.91% and 20.36% respectively, meanwhile, the
results calculated by the regional climate model B2 tend to reduce less than the A2 calculation by -
0.12%, 1.70% and -3.88% in the good rainy and dry-spell years.
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Under the regional climate model A2, the average rice yields in the dry-spell year would decline by -
21.27%, -56.01% and -26.52% respectively, compared with the good rainy year at the same year.
Under the regional climate model B2, the average rice yields in the dry-spell year would decline by -
17.55%, -18.74% and -30.75% respectively.
To this end, the climate and agriculture information system developed by the CCAI team proved that it
was functioning effectively. This information system could make all stakeholders understanding well with
the climate change impacts. The climate model together with hydrological and water demand model for
cropping, all these received much attention by large farmland owners, irrigation managers, and
agriculture extension officers.
The climate change impact and adaptation resources materials distributed by the CCAI team to
relevant government agencies and civic groups, this merged general public became well awareness of
climate impact and the need for adaptation. Many feedbacks and communication were made to the
CCAI project team by asking for more information.
In order to enable the Climate Change Adaptation Initiative to achieve its objectives and to create
operational sustainability, the Huay Saneng Commission has agreed assign the Rajamangala University
of Technology Isan, Surin Campus and Community for Development Association to become a
coordination center for academic and activities, being the knowledge sharing center for climate change
adaptation at the community level and assembling data, knowledge and operational experiences
systematically. There are 9 Demonstration Centers of Climate Change Adaptation spreading over the
basin area for learning exchanges and transferring adaptive experience. Each center has different
knowledge of adaptive approaches to flood and dry-spell and has the network partner of people, who
have participated in developing Huay Saneng Basin, as the activity support unit of the demonstration
sites, consisting of the Rajamangala University of Technology Isan Surin Campus, Surin Provincial
Office of Natural Resources and Environment, Surin Provincial Administration Office, Surin Provincial
Irrigation Office, Surin Disaster and Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office, Surin Provincial
Governor’s office, Bank for Agriculture and Agriculture Cooperatives, Water Resources Regional Office
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5 and Khon Khen University. Moreover, GHG emission reduction and climate change adaptation plans
should be also concretely provided for Local Administrative Organizations and Huay Saneng Basin
accordingly.
In terms of the lowest daily temperature or the night-time temperature also tend to increase and a period
of cool weather in a year or a number of day with lowest temperature lower than 16 c in a year would
decrease. Most area of Chi-Mun River Basin might not have the winter as it used to be anymore.
Recommendations and lesson learnt
1) The Local Administrative Organization (LAO) should develop implementation plan on
greenhouse gas emission reduction and climate change adaptation in Huay Saneng Basin.
2) Previously, most of farmers/agriculturists/local communities not aware and lack of
knowledge on climate change.
3) Related local government agencies did not collaborate with the project. i.e Sub-District
Organization(SAO) or Municipal Official has sent representatives to the meetings but they
came to sign the name and then gone.
4) There some Sub-district Organization (SAO) that never attend the meetings especially in the
area where has serious impact. i.e Cha-Niang, Korkoo, Tra Saeng and Salakdai.
5) There are lot of technical terms that needs to be simplify when communicate with audience
who have no background and knowledge on climate change and technical terms.
6) Local government agencies lack of knowledge and awareness on climate change. This is
important point because it is needed to integrated climate change adaptation into their
strategic plan.
7) The general public lack of participation with the project. They did not aware and did not
understand about climate change, climate change adaptation and mitigation.
8) The Project Working Group has coordinated and disseminated the result of research to
stakeholders by preparing reports and feed the result back to all stakeholders of the three
levels as follow:
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8.1) At site level, the Local Intellectuals and representatives from Learning Centers were invited to acknowledge the result of research project.
8..2) At local level, there were meetings provided for representatives from Local Administrative Office (LAO), School and related agencies to receive a report and feed the result of research back to local which will benefit for future development plan.
9. Learning Center: There were workshops provided for representatives of Learning Centre. It aimed to improve their capacity and skill on communication and operation in order to be a model for general public who come for the visits and to share the experiences.
10. Stakeholders have been working together on project planning, detailed as follow: 10.1) Developed adaptation plan by providing workshops to prepare adaptation plan of
household, local communities and Local Administrative Office (LAO). The result of the research was used to explore solutions through Learning Centre or Local Administrative Office at site levels. 10.2) The Learning Centre operation: All the nine Learning Centres initially started before the project has developed. Some of them have experiences and ready to share knowledge and information to visitors but some of them lacked of budget and experiences and did not ready to share their knowledge and information even though they have been known about implementing adaptation activities. Besides, they also lacked of management skill, therefore they need to be strengthened in order to be more perfect Learning Centers and ready to be models of Climate Change Adaptation. i.e. provide trainings to increase capacity, produce leaflet and exhibition on Climate Change and set up at all the nine Learning Centres. 10.3) Training Module: 10.3.1) Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation planning for household, communities and Local Administrative Office level by using the result of the research as main points for discussion and explore solutions through Learning Centers or Local Administrative Office at site level with aims to define the implementation and mainstream in local development plan in the future. 10.3.2) Workshop to improve capacity of Learning Centre by provided trainings on climate change adaptation, communication and operational in order to be ready for sharing knowledge and information with visitors and become a model for them.
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11. Project extension plan: 11.1) Collect local wisdom which already have but need to be updated. Select local wisdom that related to climate change adaptation for producing communication and education materials such as poster, leaflet and video and then disseminate to public. 11. 2) Support agriculturist at site level by collaborate with Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Surin Campus. Promote establishment of Organic Outlet Center and establish exhibition center with demonstrate member‘s activities.
References
Annexes
Annex 1: Project budget expenditure
Annex 3: Others
