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Presented by:
Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC
Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho
January 30, 2019
Boise, ID
LOCAL HOUSING MARKET
&
ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT
ADA COUNTY
Introduction & Welcome
Topics:
1. 2018 Local Housing Report & 2019 Forecast
2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building
3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA
and Savings
Local Housing Report
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
5892 6098
6761 6726
7565
8991
12208
10370
6839
5154
5683
6172 6498
7115
8124 7963
9553
11048 11263
11559
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY
Total Single Family Home Sales
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
2210 2609
3125
4900
3815
1877
1366 1190
986 878
1433 1674 1552
1778
2596 2774
3279
4678
5265
5998
7349
6538
5131
3873
4493
5186
5620 5682
6450 6411
7775
8452 8489 8280
5892 6098
6761 6726
7565
8991
12208
10370
6839
5154
5683
6172 6498
7115
8124 7963
9553
11048 11263
11559
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY
New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$2
42
,450
$2
59,2
78
$2
51,2
00
$25
3,0
00
$2
61
,10
3
$2
73
,90
0
$27
0,4
59
$27
9,1
10
$2
75
,000
$2
70
,000
$2
69
,65
0
$27
7,9
77
$27
9,9
00
$29
8,4
50
$30
6,5
46
$2
97
,00
0
$30
5,0
00
$3
24
,29
5
$31
6,5
00
$33
3,9
00
$31
8,6
00
$3
21
,39
8
$32
4,2
50
$3
24,9
00
15%
22%
17% 17%
18%
20%
16%
19%
20%
15% 15%
18% 19%
18% 17% 17% 18%
17% 17% 17% 18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% C
han
ge
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price
2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $
Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$311
,19
0
$3
40,0
00
$311
,751
$32
0,7
68
$3
17
,990
$3
45
,00
0
$3
34
,90
0
$3
53
,82
5
$3
50
,00
0
$3
54
,90
0
$3
39,5
00
$3
56
,29
9
$3
65,7
52
$36
2,0
00
$34
4,5
35
$37
5,5
46
$3
49
,713
$3
92
,52
6
$3
79
,90
0
$3
88
,23
5
$3
57
,50
0
$3
76
,00
0
$38
7,7
80
$4
03,2
72
18%
6%
17%
10%
14% 13%
6%
2%
6%
14% 13%
11% 11%
12% 11% 11% 11% 11%
10% 10% 11% 11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% C
han
ge
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price
2017 Median Sales $ 2018 Median Sales $
Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ada County Permits
Single Family Permits
Mulit-Family Permits
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Single Family Permits
Boise
Meridian
Eagle
Star
Kuna
Ada County
Garden City
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Multi-Family Permits
Boise
Meridian
Eagle
Star
Kuna
Ada County
Garden City
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
4270
4424
4648
4882 4995
5077 5049
4878 4772
4573
4409
3948
1704 1759 1746
1904
2060 2118
2240 2189 2153
2015
1371 1406 1504
1705 1808
1967 1952 1937 2013
1897
1185 1178 1209 1279 1287
1463 1530
1659
1884 1817
1677
1506
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY
2008 2016 2017 2018
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
3005
3206
3405
3581
3770
3910 3920
3795 3706
3555
3430
3029
875
994 1034
1154
1274 1353
1495 1440
1378
1183
902
678
555 640
737
920
1052
1270 1228 1226 1199
1068
797
582
424 489
562
679 704
816 862 885
1005
889
700
503
300
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY
2008 2016 2017 2018
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
1265
1218 1243
1301
1225
1167
1129
1083 1066
1018
979
919
765
712
750
786 765
749
775
832 838 843
816
766 767 785
756
697
724 711
814 829
848 840
761
689
647
600 583
647 668
774
879
930
977 1003
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY
2008 2016 2017 2018
12 MODIFIED ON 1/10/19 11:15 AM Information pulled on 1/10/19
Resale vs. New Construction Inventory Ada County
2 0 1 7 / 2 0 1 8
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
424
489
562
679704
816862
885
1005
889
700
503
761
689647
600 583
647 668
774
879930
9771003
Resale New Construction
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
3.8
4.2
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.8 2.8
2.5
2.7
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9 2.0
2.1 2.1 2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8 1.7 1.7
1.8 1.9
1.8
1.6 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.2 1.2 1.3
1.5
1.8 1.9
1.8
1.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015 J
an
Mar
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2016 J
an
Mar
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2017 J
an
Mar
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2018 J
an
Mar
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
0
1
0
1
3
2
3
4
9
0
1.4
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
3
7
1.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
$100-119,999
$120-159,999
$160-199,999
$200-249,999
$250-299,999
$300-399,999
$400-499,999
$500-699,999
$700-999,999
$1,000,000 +
Total
Months to Sell Present Inventory
AC23 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS
Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
7.0 7.1
6.1 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
6.0
4.4
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.6
3.9 4.1
4.7
5.3
3.8 3.7
3.9
2.9 2.9
3.1
3.4 3.5
3.8 3.9 3.8
3.5
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0 2015 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2016 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2017 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2018 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
7.0 7.1
6.1 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
6.0
4.4
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.6
3.9 4.1
4.7
5.3
3.8 3.7
3.9
2.9 2.9
3.1
3.4 3.5
3.8 3.9 3.8
3.5
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0 2015 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2016 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2017 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2018 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
0
0
3
6
3
4
6
24
0
4
0
0
1
4
4
4
4
5
11
4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
$120-159,999
$160-199,999
$200-249,999
$250-299,999
$300-399,999
$400-499,999
$500-699,999
$700-999,999
$1,000,000 +
Total
Months to Sell Present Inventory
AC24 DECEMBER 2018 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction
Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$268,7
70
$302,5
00
$301,7
70
$307,4
21
$306,7
41
$319,2
00
$309,2
83
$298,4
23
$285,9
87
$304,9
00
$288,6
66
$305,1
20
$313,7
48
$305,1
82
$282,5
00
$278,1
06
$297,1
50
$315,4
00
$285,9
27
$349,6
42
$328,3
08
$309,0
00
$334,1
64
$320,0
00
$286,1
25
$299,9
85
$296,0
00
$318,7
60
$316,4
50
$304,6
29
$314,9
00
$326,6
62
$317,3
25
$333,4
50
$311,8
37
$307,8
62
$311,1
90
$340,0
00
$311,7
51
$320,7
68
$317,9
90
$345,0
00
$334,9
00
$353,8
25
$350,0
00
$329,9
00
$339,5
00
$356,2
99
$365,7
52
$362,0
00
$344,5
35
$375,5
46
$349,7
13
$392,5
26
$379,9
00
$388,2
35
$357,5
00
$376,0
00
$387,7
80
$403,2
72
30% 29%
32%
30%
33%
32%
33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
% o
f M
ed
ian
In
c t
o b
uy M
ed
ian
pri
ced
ho
me
Sin
gle
Mo
nth
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index
Single Month Median Sales $ Affordability Index
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
$250,000
$260,000
$270,000
$280,000
$290,000
A57 - Ada County Market Correction - DECEMBER 2018
Yearly Existing Median Sales Price Equity Existing Median Sales Price 3.7% Appreciation Line - 2000 Base Year
➢ Sales: UP (18+%)
➢ Price: UP (12%)
➢ Permits: UP (5.5%)
➢ Inventory: UP (19%)
➢ Distressed Inventory: VERY LOW
➢ Months Supply: FLAT (4.1)
➢ Affordability: DOWN
Local Housing Report2018 New Construction Summary
New Construction Forecast
New Construction Forecast
✓ 2018 Prediction: More of the same (use caution)✓Sales should be strong, but
✓Price gains not the same % increase as last year
✓“Later innings”
✓ 2018 Wild Cards:
✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?
✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?
✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices
✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs
✓ Commercial construction .... Will it is absorb more trades / labor?
✓ Government Regulations …. Local and National
✓ Trump Effect … Trade Wars, Tax Code, Gov’t Spending, Regulations, etc)
New Construction Forecast
✓2019 Prediction:
✓Strong Sales, and….
✓Price Resistance (Be Smart)✓ Price gains not the same % increase as last year
✓ “Later innings”
New Construction Forecast
✓ 2019 Prediction: Strong Sales and Price Resistance✓ “Later innings”
✓ Wild Cards (KNOWN):✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?
✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?
✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices
✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs
✓ Government Regulations - Local and National
✓ Wild Cards (BIG UNKNOWN):
✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Government Shutdowns, Trump vs. all
More Trends & Impacts
✓ Millennials and Boomers will dominate market
✓ What do Millennials want?
✓ Boomers downsizing = Selling McMansions
✓ Price spread between New and Existing Homes
✓ Over 24% is better, but still concerning
✓ Fewer homes on the market is the new normal
✓ Price pressures in the most expensive markets
✓ Opposition to new housing will continue
1/18/19, 3(28 PMSix ideas to cont rol Boise growth now. | Idaho Statesman
Page 1 of 7ht tps://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers- opinion/ar t icle214802600.html
GUEST OPINIONS
Six ways to con t ro l Bo ise growth
now. First , stop the se lf-p rom ot ion .
Boise is one of the nation 's fastest-growing cit ies. Here's a look at what's
already been built and what' s to come for Idaho's capital.
By Kelsey Grey !
“When the burdens of the presidency seem unusually heavy, I
always remind myself it could be worse. I could be a mayor.”
BY DAVID KLINGER " # ! $JULY 13, 2018 10:24 AM, UPDATED JULY 16, 2018 05:53 AM
56% 50%
50% 50%
50% 50%
SHARE $
SIGN IN SUBSCRIBESECTIONS
1/18/19, 3(28 PMSix ideas to cont rol Boise growth now. | Idaho Statesman
Page 1 of 7ht tps://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers- opinion/ar t icle214802600.html
GUEST OPINIONS
Six ways to contro l Boise growth
now. First , stop the se lf-p romotion.
Boise is one of the nation 's fastest-growing cit ies. Here's a look at what's
already been built and what' s to come for Idaho's capital.
By Kelsey Grey !
“When the burdens of the presidency seem unusually heavy, I
always remind myself it could be worse. I could be a mayor.”
BY DAVID KLINGER " # ! $JULY 13, 2018 10:24 AM, UPDATED JULY 16, 2018 05:53 AM
56% 50%
50% 50%
50% 50%
SHARE $
SIGN IN SUBSCRIBESECTIONS
1/22/19, 9 ' 03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/
A home under construction in EastBoise. Photo by Anne Wallace Allen
Treasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with population, job growth
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 22, 2019 # 0
Despite a hot economy with steady increases in wages and employment,
many Treasure Valley residents can’t keep pace with the rising cost of
housing.
That subject was front and center last week when mortgage lenders,
realtors, housing advocates and business and community leaders came
together for a Mayor’s Summit on Housing and Growth.
The program was sponsored by the Idaho Mortgage Lenders Association
and featured Boise Mayor Dave Bieter, Meridian Mayor Tammy de Weerd
and Nampa Mayor Debbie Kling.
The panelists addressed IMLA’s largest luncheon group to date at the Red Lion Downtowner – 160 attendees.
The valley’s rapid growth, shrinking affordability and other growing pains are issues that the mayors are all worried
about, said de Weerd. But it takes more than just public policy initiatives to ease the strain. The development
community also “needs to be in the room” to help find solutions, said de Weerd.
When asked to identify some of the ways their respective cities’ housing costs and supply could be dealt with, the
mayors cited a ramping up of economic development efforts; zoning changes to attract higher density projects; and
encouraging builders to develop subdivisions where there’s a mix of price points and housing types.
Attracting more family wage employers and helping existing businesses grow also is high on the mayors’ collective
radar.
“We don’t spend a lot of time recruiting companies that don’t pay better,” said Bieter. “We work that (effort) hard.”
In Boise during the past five years, the multifamily sector accounted for 60 percent of new housing, said Bieter. “The
right design is so important to gaining acceptance from nearby residents,” said Bieter, referring to a shift from the
skinny house look to something a little more creative on tight lots.
Boise’s plan to address rising housing prices extends to the rental sector. Along with helping fund the 160-unit Adare
Manor affordable housing project now rising along Fairview Avenue, the city is working to create a land trust funded
through public-private partnerships, as well as shifts in the zoning code to allow for denser development.
The state government has work to do, as well, said Bieter. The state budget allocates a small amount of money for
affordable housing support, but there’s no money currently earmarked for that purpose.
While metro-area wages rose 4 percent a year since 2014, median home prices increased about 30 percent in that
time, according to 2018’s MetroStudy Treasure Valley. Mortgage activity is down 7 percent from last quarter, the
IMLA reported.
The study estimated that to purchase a home priced at $275,000 in Ada County, the borrower would need an
income of $63,185. In Canyon County, a buyer pulling down $49,073 could qualify for a home priced at $195,000.
1/22/19, 9 '03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/
A home under construction in EastBoise. Photo by Anne Wallace Allen
Treasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with population, job growth
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 22, 2019 # 0
Despite a hot economy with steady increases in wages and employment,
many Treasure Valley residents can’t keep pace with the rising cost of
housing.
That subject was front and center last week when mortgage lenders,
realtors, housing advocates and business and community leaders came
together for a Mayor’s Summit on Housing and Growth.
The program was sponsored by the Idaho Mortgage Lenders Association
and featured Boise Mayor Dave Bieter, Meridian Mayor Tammy de Weerd
and Nampa Mayor Debbie Kling.
The panelists addressed IMLA’s largest luncheon group to date at the Red Lion Downtowner – 160 attendees.
The valley’s rapid growth, shrinking affordability and other growing pains are issues that the mayors are all worried
about, said de Weerd. But it takes more than just public policy initiatives to ease the strain. The development
community also “needs to be in the room” to help find solutions, said de Weerd.
When asked to identify some of the ways their respective cities’ housing costs and supply could be dealt with, the
mayors cited a ramping up of economic development efforts; zoning changes to attract higher density projects; and
encouraging builders to develop subdivisions where there’s a mix of price points and housing types.
Attracting more family wage employers and helping existing businesses grow also is high on the mayors’ collective
radar.
“We don’t spend a lot of time recruiting companies that don’t pay better,” said Bieter. “We work that (effort) hard.”
In Boise during the past five years, the multifamily sector accounted for 60 percent of new housing, said Bieter. “The
right design is so important to gaining acceptance from nearby residents,” said Bieter, referring to a shift from the
skinny house look to something a little more creative on tight lots.
Boise’s plan to address rising housing prices extends to the rental sector. Along with helping fund the 160-unit Adare
Manor affordable housing project now rising along Fairview Avenue, the city is working to create a land trust funded
through public-private partnerships, as well as shifts in the zoning code to allow for denser development.
The state government has work to do, as well, said Bieter. The state budget allocates a small amount of money for
affordable housing support, but there’s no money currently earmarked for that purpose.
While metro-area wages rose 4 percent a year since 2014, median home prices increased about 30 percent in that
time, according to 2018’s MetroStudy Treasure Valley. Mortgage activity is down 7 percent from last quarter, the
IMLA reported.
The study estimated that to purchase a home priced at $275,000 in Ada County, the borrower would need an
income of $63,185. In Canyon County, a buyer pulling down $49,073 could qualify for a home priced at $195,000.
1/22/19, 9'03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace- with- populat ion- job- growth/
A home under construction in EastBoise. Photo by Anne Wallace Allen
Treasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with population, job growth
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 22, 2019 # 0
Despite a hot economy with steady increases in wages and employment,
many Treasure Valley residents can’t keep pace with the rising cost of
housing.
That subject was front and center last week when mortgage lenders,
realtors, housing advocates and business and community leaders came
together for a Mayor’s Summit on Housing and Growth.
The program was sponsored by the Idaho Mortgage Lenders Association
and featured Boise Mayor Dave Bieter, Meridian Mayor Tammy de Weerd
and Nampa Mayor Debbie Kling.
The panelists addressed IMLA’s largest luncheon group to date at the Red Lion Downtowner – 160 attendees.
The valley’s rapid growth, shrinking affordability and other growing pains are issues that the mayors are all worried
about, said de Weerd. But it takes more than just public policy initiatives to ease the strain. The development
community also “needs to be in the room” to help find solutions, said de Weerd.
When asked to identify some of the ways their respective cities’ housing costs and supply could be dealt with, the
mayors cited a ramping up of economic development efforts; zoning changes to attract higher density projects; and
encouraging builders to develop subdivisions where there’s a mix of price points and housing types.
Attracting more family wage employers and helping existing businesses grow also is high on the mayors’ collective
radar.
“We don’t spend a lot of time recruiting companies that don’t pay better,” said Bieter. “We work that (effort) hard.”
In Boise during the past five years, the multifamily sector accounted for 60 percent of new housing, said Bieter. “The
right design is so important to gaining acceptance from nearby residents,” said Bieter, referring to a shift from the
skinny house look to something a little more creative on tight lots.
Boise’s plan to address rising housing prices extends to the rental sector. Along with helping fund the 160-unit Adare
Manor affordable housing project now rising along Fairview Avenue, the city is working to create a land trust funded
through public-private partnerships, as well as shifts in the zoning code to allow for denser development.
The state government has work to do, as well, said Bieter. The state budget allocates a small amount of money for
affordable housing support, but there’s no money currently earmarked for that purpose.
While metro-area wages rose 4 percent a year since 2014, median home prices increased about 30 percent in that
time, according to 2018’s MetroStudy Treasure Valley. Mortgage activity is down 7 percent from last quarter, the
IMLA reported.
The study estimated that to purchase a home priced at $275,000 in Ada County, the borrower would need an
income of $63,185. In Canyon County, a buyer pulling down $49,073 could qualify for a home priced at $195,000.
1/22/19, 9'03 AMTreasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with populat ion, job growth – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/22/t reasure- valley- mayors- housing- not- keeping- pace-with- populat ion- job- growth/
A home under construction in EastBoise. Photo by Anne Wallace Allen
Treasure Valley mayors: Housing not keeping pace with population, job growth
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 22, 2019 # 0
Despite a hot economy with steady increases in wages and employment,
many Treasure Valley residents can’t keep pace with the rising cost of
housing.
That subject was front and center last week when mortgage lenders,
realtors, housing advocates and business and community leaders came
together for a Mayor’s Summit on Housing and Growth.
The program was sponsored by the Idaho Mortgage Lenders Association
and featured Boise Mayor Dave Bieter, Meridian Mayor Tammy de Weerd
and Nampa Mayor Debbie Kling.
The panelists addressed IMLA’s largest luncheon group to date at the Red Lion Downtowner – 160 attendees.
The valley’s rapid growth, shrinking affordability and other growing pains are issues that the mayors are all worried
about, said de Weerd. But it takes more than just public policy initiatives to ease the strain. The development
community also “needs to be in the room” to help find solutions, said de Weerd.
When asked to identify some of the ways their respective cities’ housing costs and supply could be dealt with, the
mayors cited a ramping up of economic development efforts; zoning changes to attract higher density projects; and
encouraging builders to develop subdivisions where there’s a mix of price points and housing types.
Attracting more family wage employers and helping existing businesses grow also is high on the mayors’ collective
radar.
“We don’t spend a lot of time recruiting companies that don’t pay better,” said Bieter. “We work that (effort) hard.”
In Boise during the past five years, the multifamily sector accounted for 60 percent of new housing, said Bieter. “The
right design is so important to gaining acceptance from nearby residents,” said Bieter, referring to a shift from the
skinny house look to something a little more creative on tight lots.
Boise’s plan to address rising housing prices extends to the rental sector. Along with helping fund the 160-unit Adare
Manor affordable housing project now rising along Fairview Avenue, the city is working to create a land trust funded
through public-private partnerships, as well as shifts in the zoning code to allow for denser development.
The state government has work to do, as well, said Bieter. The state budget allocates a small amount of money for
affordable housing support, but there’s no money currently earmarked for that purpose.
While metro-area wages rose 4 percent a year since 2014, median home prices increased about 30 percent in that
time, according to 2018’s MetroStudy Treasure Valley. Mortgage activity is down 7 percent from last quarter, the
IMLA reported.
The study estimated that to purchase a home priced at $275,000 in Ada County, the borrower would need an
income of $63,185. In Canyon County, a buyer pulling down $49,073 could qualify for a home priced at $195,000.
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
Morgan Stanley CEO says …..
“it is ‘extremely negative’ if the government shutdown goes on much longer”
“if it goes on for months of this year, it’s going to have an extremely damaging effect” on the economy.
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
NAHB Local Housing
Economic Impact Study
for Ada County
December 2018
Phase II: The Construction Ripple
Phase III: Ongoing Impacts
Phase I: Construction
Local Housing Economic ImpactBackground
Economic Direct Impact2018 SF Residential Construction
Ada County 2018
# of SF Building Permits: 4,540
Median house price: $390,000
Permit/Impact fees: $13,500
Annual property taxes: $4,463
5
Impact of Building 4,540 Single-family Homes
in Ada County, Idaho
Summary
Total One-Year Impact: Sum of Phase I and Phase II:
Local Income Local Business
Owners’ Income
Local Wages and
Salaries Local Taxes1
Local Jobs
Supported
$1,310,419,600 $397,656,000 $912,763,700 $110,859,400 20,615
Phase I: Direct and Indirect Impact of Construction Activity:
Local Income
Business Owners’ Income
Local Wages and Salaries
Local Taxes1
Local Jobs Supported
$893,637,000 $303,294,100 $590,342,900 $77,297,500 12,894
Phase II: Induced (Ripple) Effect of Spending the Income and Taxes from Phase I:
Local Income
Business Owners’ Income
Local Wages and Salaries
Local Taxes1
Local Jobs Supported
$416,782,600 $94,361,900 $322,420,800 $33,561,900 7,721
Phase III: Ongoing, Annual Effect that Occurs When New Homes are Occupied:
Local Income
Local Business Owners’ Income
Local Wages and Salaries
Local Taxes1 Local Jobs Supported
$179,049,600 $41,118,400 $137,931,100 $34,792,100 3,343
1 The term local taxes is used as a shorthand for local government revenue from all sources: taxes, fees, fines, revenue from government-owned enterprises, etc.
Economic Impact2018 SF Residential Construction
Economic Direct Impact2018 SF Residential Construction
Total Taxes & Fees paid to local governments:
Total Permit & Impact Fees: $61,290,000
Property Taxes & Other Fees: $16,007,500
TOTAL $77,297,500
Note: Total Fees Paid = total permits x permit fees
Property Taxes = ½ of total permits x home value x avg. levy
Local HousingDoes Growth Pay For Itself ?
4
The difference between government revenue and current expenditures is defined as an “operating surplus.” In the case of single-family construction, the operating surplus generated during the first year is large enough to service and pay off all debt incurred by investing in structures and equipment at the beginning of the first year by the end of
the first year. After that, future operating surpluses will be available to finance other projects or reduce taxes. After 15 years, the homes will generate a cumulative $598.7 million in revenue compared to $279.2 million in costs, including annual current
expenses, capital investment, and interest on debt (Figure 3).
Costs Compared to Revenue: Multifamily Construction This section summarizes results for multifamily construction. As with the section on single-
family construction, relevant assumptions about the units built can be found in The Metro Area Impact of Home Building in Ada County, Idaho: Income, Jobs and Taxes Generated.
In the first year, the 1,759 multifamily housing units built in Ada County result in an
estimated $28.2 million in tax and other revenue for local governments, $1.6 million in current expenditures by local government to provide public
services to the net new households at current levels, and $22.9 million in capital investment for new structures and equipment
undertaken by local governments The analysis assumes that local governments finance the capital investment by borrowing at the current municipal bond rate.
In a typical year after the year after the second, when increased property tax payments
become fully phased in, the 1,759 multifamily units generate $6.9 million in tax and other revenue for local governments, and $3.2 million in local government expenditures needed to continue providing
services at current levels.
Top Regulatory Issues
Addressed by BCA in 2018
Top BCA issues in 2018
1. State Building Codes (Residential, Energy, etc.)
2. ACHD Development Policies
3. Meridian Building Dept.
(Plan Reviews, inspections)
4. Builder Job Site Theft
Est. Savings / home
$7,000
$2,000
$750
$$$
Current Local Regulatory Issues
1. State Building Codes
2018 Residential, Energy, etc.
➢ Boise City uses different codes than other cities
2. Legislative Issues:
➢ Contractor Registration vs. Licensing
3. Positive Public Relations Outreach
Top Regulatory Issues
Estimated Savings in 2017 - 2018
$20,000 per home
... 10 homes = $200,000
... 100 homes = $2,000,000
✓ For every $1,000 increase in home = 482 people priced
out of the local housing market
DATA SOURCES
LOCAL HOUSING REPORT – YEAR END 2018
• Intermountain MLS, Webb Charts, National Association of Relators
NAHB LOCAL HOUSING ECONOMIC IMPACT – DEC. 2018
• Building Costs & Sales Price: Local Builders, Developers & IMLS
• Permits: Ada County and Cities
• Local Gov’t Revenue (building permit, impact & connection fees,
prop. taxes, etc.): Ada County and City Building Depts & Ada
County Assessor
• Local Government Costs (spending): U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census
of Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)
• Economic Impacts: NAHB, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census of
Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)
• Jobs: Idaho Dept. of Labor & Idaho Dept. of Commerce