Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribucin logGumbel o distribucin de Frchet

Serie de datos X:

---------------------------------------- N X---------------------------------------- 116.81 211.947 328.92 464.26 524.27 624.9 734.32 842.81 930.6 1039.67 1119.53 1217.85 1330.87 1413.8 1524.54 1648.67 1716.09 1846.55 198.39 2029.54 2129.18 2266.94 23144.89 2465.8 2516.48 26123.77 2787.31 2862.44 2956.25 3033.61 3112.01 3250.48 3317.01 34250.0 3563.75 3613.0 3740.63 3840.0 3913.71 4070.83 4135.795 4243.02 4356.922 4490.63 4599.342 4656.44 4765.42 4859.08 49326.5 50128.174 51110.2 5268.9 5390.925 5418.938 5514.85 5628.96 5761.612 5825.09----------------------------------------

Clculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 8.39 0.0169 0.0007 0.0016 0.0163 2 11.947 0.0339 0.0166 0.0246 0.0173 3 12.01 0.0508 0.0172 0.0254 0.0336 4 13.0 0.0678 0.0282 0.0388 0.0396 5 13.71 0.0847 0.0380 0.0502 0.0467 6 13.8 0.1017 0.0394 0.0518 0.0623 7 14.85 0.1186 0.0568 0.0712 0.0619 8 16.09 0.1356 0.0808 0.0971 0.0548 9 16.48 0.1525 0.0890 0.1058 0.0635 10 16.81 0.1695 0.0962 0.1132 0.0733 11 17.01 0.1864 0.1006 0.1178 0.0859 12 17.85 0.2034 0.1198 0.1375 0.0836 13 18.938 0.2203 0.1457 0.1637 0.0746 14 19.53 0.2373 0.1602 0.1782 0.0771 15 24.27 0.2542 0.2772 0.2922 0.0230 16 24.54 0.2712 0.2837 0.2984 0.0125 17 24.9 0.2881 0.2922 0.3066 0.0041 18 25.09 0.3051 0.2967 0.3109 0.0084 19 28.92 0.3220 0.3819 0.3919 0.0598 20 28.96 0.3390 0.3827 0.3927 0.0437 21 29.18 0.3559 0.3873 0.3970 0.0313 22 29.54 0.3729 0.3946 0.4040 0.0218 23 30.6 0.3898 0.4158 0.4240 0.0259 24 30.87 0.4068 0.4210 0.4290 0.0142 25 33.61 0.4237 0.4712 0.4764 0.0474 26 34.32 0.4407 0.4832 0.4878 0.0426 27 35.795 0.4576 0.5072 0.5105 0.0496 28 39.67 0.4746 0.5635 0.5638 0.0889 29 40.0 0.4915 0.5679 0.5680 0.0763 30 40.63 0.5085 0.5761 0.5758 0.0676 31 42.81 0.5254 0.6027 0.6011 0.0773 32 43.02 0.5424 0.6052 0.6035 0.0628 33 46.55 0.5593 0.6432 0.6397 0.0838 34 48.67 0.5763 0.6634 0.6591 0.0872 35 50.48 0.5932 0.6794 0.6744 0.0862 36 56.25 0.6102 0.7235 0.7169 0.1133 37 56.44 0.6271 0.7248 0.7181 0.0976 38 56.922 0.6441 0.7280 0.7213 0.0839 39 59.08 0.6610 0.7418 0.7346 0.0808 40 61.612 0.6780 0.7567 0.7491 0.0787 41 62.44 0.6949 0.7612 0.7536 0.0663 42 63.75 0.7119 0.7682 0.7604 0.0564 43 64.26 0.7288 0.7709 0.7629 0.0420 44 65.42 0.7458 0.7767 0.7686 0.0309 45 65.8 0.7627 0.7785 0.7704 0.0158 46 66.94 0.7797 0.7840 0.7757 0.0043 47 68.9 0.7966 0.7928 0.7844 0.0038 48 70.83 0.8136 0.8010 0.7925 0.0126 49 87.31 0.8305 0.8543 0.8454 0.0238 50 90.63 0.8475 0.8623 0.8534 0.0148 51 90.925 0.8644 0.8630 0.8541 0.0014 52 99.342 0.8814 0.8803 0.8716 0.0010 53 110.2 0.8983 0.8980 0.8896 0.0003 54 123.77 0.9153 0.9149 0.9070 0.0003 55 128.174 0.9322 0.9195 0.9117 0.0127 56 144.89 0.9492 0.9336 0.9264 0.0155 57 250.0 0.9661 0.9723 0.9678 0.0062 58 326.5 0.9831 0.9820 0.9786 0.0010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:-------------------------------------------------------Como el delta terico 0.1133, es menor que el delta tabular 0.1786. Los datos se ajustan a la distribucin logGumbel, con un nivel de significacin del 5%

------------------------------------------------------------Parmetros de la distribucin logGumbel:------------------------------------------------------------Con momentos ordinarios:Parmetro de posicin ()= 3.3413Parmetro de escala (alfa)= 0.6104

Con momentos lineales:Parmetro de posicin (l)= 3.3225Parmetro de escala (alfal)= 0.6429

------------------------------Caudal de diseo:------------------------------El caudal de diseo para un periodo de retorno de 1000 aos, es 1914.81