Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, … News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, Round 2 1 November 9, 2017 Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, Round 2 About

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, Round 2

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November 9, 2017


About the Survey

The second round of a Pre-Election Tracker in Gujarat was conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of

Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from October 26 through

November 1, 2017 among 3,757 voters in 200 locations (polling stations) spread across 50 assembly

constituencies (the State has a total of 182 assembly constituencies). These constituencies are different

from the ones where the survey was conducted during round-1 in early August. The sampling design

adopted was multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted

were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, four polling stations

within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method.

Finally, the respondents were randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations.

Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method

and interviewing techniques at day-long training workshops held in Ahmedabad and Anand. The field

investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Gujarati asking them a set of

standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 35 minutes. At some locations the non-

availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or

substitutions.

The achieved raw sample is quite representative of Gujarat’s population profile. It has nevertheless been

weighted by gender, locality, religion, and caste group based on Census 2011. The poll has an overall

margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Profile of Achieved Sample in Gujarat

Survey

Sample (raw)

(%)

Census

2011

(%)

Scheduled Caste 10.2 6.7

Scheduled Tribe 12.9 14.7

Muslim 5.0 9.7

Women 43.8 47.8

Urban 31.7 44.6

The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Mahashweta Jani (Researcher, Ahmedabad) and Dr.

Bhanu Parmar (Associate Professor, Nalini-Arvind & T.V. Patel Arts College, Vallabh Vidyanagar,

Anand). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included

Ankita Barthwal, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, and Shreyas Sardesai. The survey

was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.

Survey details in a nutshell

Conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News

Dates of fieldwork Oct 26 - Nov 1, 2017

No. of Assembly Constituencies covered 50

No. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered 200

No. of interviews of voters conducted (Sample size) 3757

Overall Margin of Error +/- 2.3

Sampling method Multi-stage random sampling

Fieldwork method Standardized face-to-face interview in Gujarati


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Gujarat: With a month to go for voting, Congress closes in on BJP

Lokniti team

After a long time the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been ruling Gujarat for almost two straight

decades, has a real fight on its hands. Its popularity has declined drastically in the State in a short span of

just two and a half months. In the first half of August when Lokniti-CSDS had conducted the first round of

its pre-election Tracker in Gujarat, the ruling party was ahead of its main opponent, the Congress, by a

whopping margin of 30 percentage points in terms of people’s voting preference. This enormous advantage

has now shrunk to merely 6 points. The second round of the Tracker conducted in the State between

October 26th and November 1st among 3,757 voters spread across 50 assembly constituencies found the

BJP to be securing 47 percent of the votes overall, down from 59 percent in August, and the Congress to

be getting about 41 percent votes, a gain of 12 percentage points. While there’s no doubt that the BJP still

enjoys a fairly comfortable lead and continues to be the dominant party in the State, the momentum

however very clearly seems to have shifted towards the Congress. With a month still left for voting to take

place in this State, the narrowing gap between the two arch rivals could well tighten further. Although

there has been a vast improvement in the Congress’s vote share overall, one major problem for the party at

the moment is that it is not winning enough votes on many seats to get ahead of the BJP. Moreover, its

popularity is not evenly spread out across the State.

Regional variation, angry Patels and Tribal surprise

The survey found much of the Congress recovery (and BJP decline) to be taking place in two regions -

Saurashtra-Kutchh and North Gujarat. In Saurashtra, the Congress and the BJP were found to be neck

and neck at 42 percent votes each and in North Gujarat, the Congress was ahead of the BJP by seven

points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Both these regions together account for 107 seats, which is well over half

the seats in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly. Both these regions also have a sizeable population of

Patidars/Patels, a section of whom have been agitating for the past two years for their inclusion into the

OBC category in order to avail the benefits of the reservation policy. The survey found them to have begun

moving away from the BJP and towards the Congress in quite large numbers. While in early August the

BJP was ahead of the Congress among Patels by a margin of 58 percentage points, this humongous gap

has now reduced to 20 points. Interestingly, while disenchantment with the BJP was found to be prevalent

across all classes of Patels, it is greatest among the Patels who are economically better-off. The Patels have

historically been the most faithful of BJP voters in Gujarat and in every election since 1995, no less than

two-thirds (going up to three-fourths at times) have voted for the party. It therefore remains to be seen

whether the split among Patels becomes sharper or at least remains at the current level till December 9, or

if many of them switch back to their old choice - the BJP - at the last minute.

If the Congress seems to be making impressive gains in the BJP citadel of Saurashtra - thanks primarily to

perceived Patidar anger; it seems to be in deep trouble in its own traditional stronghold of Central Gujarat.

The Tracker found the party to be trailing the BJP in this region by a wide margin of 16 percentage points.

Even though this gap is lower than the one witnessed in the August round (the BJP was ahead by 26 points

back then), it is still large enough to give the BJP a significant number of seats and compensate for its

losses elsewhere. South Gujarat too seems to be swinging the BJP way for now. The survey found the BJP

to be securing 51 percent of the votes here compared to the Congress’s 33 percent. One of the main reasons

for the BJP to be doing so well in both Central and South Gujarat could be the support that it is receiving

among the Adivasis who reside in large numbers in the two regions and who traditionally have been

staunch supporters of the Congress party. The latest survey found the BJP to be ahead of the Congress

among Adivasis by 18 percentage points, which is only a minor drop from the 21-point lead it had in

August. It is quite possible that Congress’s aggressive courting of Patel, Kshatriya and Dalit leaders

(Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani) is alienating its core Adivasi voter who may be feeling

left out of the Congress’s caste and community calculations. Moreover, the survey also found Adivasis to

be least negative of all communities in their assessment of the work done by the State government for their


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community’s interests. While 35 percent of the Adivasis were of the opinion that the State government had

failed in taking care of their interests, among Dalits, OBCs and Patels such a sentiment was much stronger

at 60, 53 and 54 percent, respectively.

Farmers and traders move towards the Congress

Even as caste seems to be the key explanatory variable in this election for now, other socio-economic

cleavages are also playing somewhat of a role in determining voter choices. Farmers, or kheduts as they are

known in Gujarati, seem to have very strongly swung in favour of the Congress with 50 percent of them

indicating their support for the opposition party. This is an improvement of 19 points since the previous

Tracker round. Support for the Congress among traders and businessmen too has risen by 13 points in the

last two and a half months, so much so that the BJP leads the Congress among this once loyal voter

segment by just 4 points now. Much of this trading community shift towards the Congress could be

attributed to the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Overall, 40 percent of all voters and 41 percent of traders

said that GST was a bad decision by the government. What’s more, 56 percent of traders said they were

dissatisfied with the recent relaxations in GST rules as opposed to 45 percent of all voters. Outright

support for demonetisation among the Gujarat electorate has also declined in a big way since August, from

55 percent to 36 percent now. Significantly, 44 percent of the voters said that they knew someone whose

business or job had been badly affected either by GST or demonetisation.

Adding to voters’ economic woes brought about by demonetisation and GST is the problem of inflation

and unemployment. When voters were asked in an open-ended question what the most important election

issue was going to be for them in the upcoming election, 19% or nearly one in every five spontaneously

said price rise, 11% said lack of jobs and 10% said poverty. Adding it all up, one gets the sense that the

outcome of the election is largely going to be determined not just by caste but by economic matters too.

What is also interesting is that the share of voters who said price rise would matter most has risen by 6

percentage points since August.

Women in big cities strongly backing the BJP

The survey also reveals a significant gender split. While men were almost as likely to vote for the Congress

as the BJP, women seem to prefer the BJP far more. In the survey, 50 percent of all women respondents

indicated that they would vote for the ruling party and only 39 percent expressed a preference for the

Congress. However, this sharp gender divide is more an urban phenomenon than a rural one since women

in villages were found to be slightly more supportive of the Congress than the BJP. It is the women

residing in urban areas, particularly big cities that are overwhelmingly backing the BJP, thus giving it an

overall advantage at this stage. That said, this popularity of the BJP among urban women has also

weakened somewhat since August, like it has across almost all sections of the population.

Youngsters disenchanted with the BJP

There is an age divide too. Young voters seem to be more in support of the Congress than middle aged and

elderly voters. In fact the BJP’s decline among youngest voters (18-29-year-olds) is the steepest. The party

had received 63 percent backing among them in August. It is now down to 44 percent, signalling a rising

discontent with the BJP.

Likeability of the leaders: Noting BJP’s decline

This feeling of discontent becomes all the more obvious when one looks at two important markers of

electoral victories - the likeability of party leaders and the aura of imminent victory that is created. In both

these spheres, the BJP has cause to worry. On the subject of popularity of its leaders, the results of Tracker-

2 show a marked drop for all the names associated with the party in the State - the local leaders and the

star national faces such as Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. In fact, in terms of the overall decline in

likeability, the PM seems to be the biggest loser, having dropped 15 percentage points in the like/dislike


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segment of the questionnaire. Other prominent faces such as State leaders Anandiben Patel and Vijay

Rupani have also registered a decline (8 and 14 points respectively). Rupani was the spontaneous choice of

24 percent of the respondents for the post of Chief Minister when the first Tracker was conducted in early

August, and now the same figure has come down to 18 percent, whereas the percentage of people naming

Congress’s Bharatsinh Solanki has gone up by 5 points. Past survey experience here at Lokniti tells us that

for a sitting CM to get such low figures is quite unusual. The trend in the past has been that popular sitting

Chief Minister secure more than 25 percent support, which makes Rupani’s popularity seem

underwhelming. More significantly perhaps, 10 percent of the respondents now spontaneously name any

Congress leader as their choice for the CM position, which could be an important reflection of the voters’

mood. Ex-CM Shankersinh Vaghela, who left the Congress in July and is going to contest elections on his

own, does not seem to be much of a factor as of now. Not only has his likeability declined by 9 percentage

points since August, most voters also do not seem too enthused by his new party/front. Only about 4% of

the voters state-wide said that it was quite likely that would vote for his front if it fielded a candidate from

their constituency. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is not on people’s mind at the moment. Arvind

Kejriwal was found to be liked by just 20 percent of the respondents. About 50 percent said they dislike

him. The rest were non-committal.

Alpesh, Hardik and Jignesh

The new leaders on the block – Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani – continue to be highly

polarising figures, which is evident from the fact that not only has there been a slight rise in their likeability

but a significant percentage point rise can also be seen within the category of people who do not like them.

This is true not just among all voters taken together but among voters of their respective communities as

well. Hardik Patel was found to be liked by 64 percent of Patels (a gain of 3 points since August) and

disliked by 30 percent (an increase of 3 points). Alpesh Thakor is now liked by 46 percent Kshatriyas

(down 7 points since August) and disliked by 34 percent of them (a 15-point increase). Finally, while 37

percent of Dalits now have a favourable view of Jignesh Mevani (6 points more than August), 31 percent

do not like him (a 10-point rise). While all three have certainly become more visible (there has been a

decline in the percentage of voters who have ‘not heard’ of them), it isn’t translating into easy gains.

Satisfaction levels with the government: Will it be enough to win

Moving away from individual personalities to the overall government performance, here too one can see a

decline in BJP’s numbers. The overall satisfaction with the State government has gone down to 57 percent

from 69 percent in August. With respect to the Central government, the decline is even sharper – from 67

percent to 54 percent. What’s more, the drop is even more precipitous when compared with the Mood of

the Nation survey conducted in the State by Lokniti in May 2017. Back then 77 percent had been satisfied

with the State government and 75 percent with the Central government.

When compared to our previous survey experiences, the latest satisfaction numbers show a worrying

picture for the BJP: for example, in the election study conducted in Uttarakhand earlier this year, the

overall satisfaction level with the Congress government’s performance was 68 percent and yet it ended up

losing the election. Also, notably, in Gujarat in 2012, Lokniti’s post-poll survey had found satisfaction

with Modi’s State government to be at 63 percent. When compared to that, the current numbers of the

Rupani government represent a seven-point fall.

Also, if we analyse satisfaction in terms of a net of extremes (those fully satisfied minus those fully

dissatisfied) the situation for the BJP appears even more alarming. Net satisfaction with the Rupani

government has declined from +24 points in August to just +9 points now. With respect to the Central

government it has dropped from +26 to +10 points. That such responses are coming from a State which

gave nearly 60 percent of its votes to the BJP in the 2014 elections should be a real call for introspection for

the party.


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‘Vatavaran’ in Gujarat: Gains for the Congress

A second possible marker of winnability might be the overall perception of victory, as viewed by the voters

themselves. This vatavaran or hawa can go a long way in dictating voter preferences at the booth, and here

too the BJP has cause for concern. When asked about the possible result in their own constituency, 38

percent of the respondents thought the Congress was going to win from their constituency, while 37

percent went with the BJP. Similarly, when asked about who was going to win in the whole of Gujarat, 38

percent said Congress and 39 percent said BJP. These near-equal perceptions of who the winner will be

only go to show that the Congress has managed to significantly dent BJP’s aura of invincibility in the

State, perhaps in part because of its ‘Congress Ave Chhe’ (Congress is coming) campaign slogan. That

said, this pro-Congress hawa that may be beginning to form, however, is not uniform across the State at the

moment: it was found to be blowing in favour of the party in Saurashtra and north Gujarat but against it in

Central and South.

Bullet Train, Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe and Jai Shah

The downward trend in BJP’s popularity is mirrored in the negative public opinion that surrounds it,

especially with regard to some recent developments. The initiation of the bullet train project between

Ahmedabad and Mumbai and the launch of several developmental projects in the State by the Prime

Minister before the announcement of the election schedule have been some of the major headlines to have

captured attention, and on both these issues, the general perception remains far from satisfactory for the

BJP. A large percentage of the respondents (56 percent) were of the view that existing railway facilities

should be improved instead of investing money in a bullet train. Only 23 percent were in favour of the

Japanese-funded project. Interestingly, the regions through which the train would pass, Central and South,

are also not particularly enthused by the project. Voters in Central Gujarat in fact were found to be most

opposed to it at 65 percent.

Meanwhile, on Modi launching several developmental projects just before the announcement of elections,

46 percent of the voters thought that they were an electoral gimmick and only 36 percent felt they were

really meant for development. While the responses of Congress and BJP supporters on this question were

unsurprising, it is the third category which doesn’t align with either party that could cause BJP trouble. In

this category, 61 percent or three in five felt that the projects were merely announced to win elections.

The other developments which have remained in regional and national news have been the viral social

media slogan/trend- ‘Vikas gando thayo chhe’ (development has gone crazy) and the expose about Amit

Shah’s son Jai Shah’s company registering manifold growth. Once again, on both these issues, the

majority opinion seems to be negative. About two-thirds of all voters have heard of the ‘Gando thayo’

slogan and among them 48 percent believe that it depicts the real picture of Gujarat. Among these people,

the voting preference for BJP drops drastically to 33 percent. Significantly, the survey also found 57

percent of youngsters (18-29-year-olds) to be agreeing with the message of the slogan. This is one of the

most important constituents of the electorate, and has been known to support Modi with gusto; a decline

here would dent the overall appeal in a big way.

On the question of Jai Shah’s company too, 55 percent voters of the respondents want a probe to be held

and only 11 percent are against it, the rest being non-committal. Interestingly, among those who have

traditionally not been the supporter of either Congress or BJP, the figure of those wanting a probe is nearly

70 percent.

While on the campaign trail, the Prime Minister is known to have an intuitive understanding of his

listeners, which he often uses to great success. In one such speech given recently, he alluded to the

apparent hatred the Congress has had for Gujarat and Gujaratis. Our survey however indicates that most

voters do not seem to have bought into this argument. Only 28 percent were found to be of the view that

the ‘Congress has always insulted (apmaan) Gujarat and Gujaratis’, 51 percent disagreed with it and the

rest remained non-committal. Even a large chunk of staunch BJP voters were found to be in disagreement.


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These points about the negative opinion around recent events show that the aura of invincibility that the

BJP likes to project has been dented. Whether or not this translates into a victory for the Congress, the

dissatisfaction of voters in the Prime Minister’s own State should be a point of concern for the BJP and is

critical in explaining the current trends in an electorally surcharged Gujarat.

Important findings from the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker 2017 – Round 2

Voting intention - BJP’s wide lead over Congress shrinks considerably

Voting intention in

first half of

Aug 2017 (%)

Voting intention in

last week of

Oct 2017 (%)

Change since

Aug ( % points)

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 59 47 -12

Congress (Cong) 29 41 +12

Others 12 12 0 Note: The vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by voters through a secret dummy ballot. Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then which party will you vote for?

Cong gains tremendously in Saurashtra & North Gujarat, BJP maintains big lead in Central & South

Vote for BJP

in end Oct

%

Vote for Cong

in end Oct

%

Vote for Others

in end Oct

%

Saurashtra and Kutchh (54 seats) 42 (-23) 42 (+16) 16 (+7)

North Gujarat (53 seats) 44 (-15) 49 (+16) 7 (-1)

Central Gujarat (40 seats) 54 (-2) 38 (+8) 8 (-6)

South Gujarat (35 seats) 51 (-3) 33 (+6) 16 (-3) Note: Figures in parentheses show change since August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS. Sample size was 4090.

Saurashtra and Kutchh includes districts of Kutchh, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Bhavnagar,

Morbi, Devbhumi Dwarka, Gir Somnath and Botad. North Gujarat includes districts of Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mahesana,

Patan, Sabarkantha, Banaskantha and Arvalli. Central Gujarat includes districts of Panchmahals, Dohad, Kheda, Anand, Vadodara,

Mahisagar and Chhotaudepur. South Gujarat includes districts of Bharuch, Narmada, Surat, Navsari, Dangs, Valsad and Tapi.

Anti-incumbency sentiment strengthens further

Early Aug % End Oct %

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should get another chance 50 41

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should perhaps get another chance 13 9

Present BJP govt. in Gujarat should not get another chance 25 38

Non-committal 12 12 Question asked was: Should the present BJP government in Gujarat get another chance?

BJP losing Patel support but continues to do well among Adivasis who’re Cong’s long time supporters

Caste/communities Leading party in terms of votes and

margin leading by over nearest rival

in early August

Leading party in terms of votes and

margin leading by over nearest rival

in October-end

Upper castes BJP +59 BJP +32

Patels BJP +58 BJP +20

Kshatriyas BJP +25 Cong +4

Kolis BJP +42 Cong +10

Other OBCs BJP +47 BJP +22

Dalits Cong +14 Cong +8

Adivasis BJP +21 BJP +18

Muslims Cong +22 Cong +68 Note: Lead margins are percentage points.


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Congress now leads the BJP among farmers

Vote % for Cong

in end Oct

Vote % for BJP

in end Oct

Vote % for Others

in end Oct

Farmers 50 (+19) 44 (-18) 6 (-1)

Non-farmers 38 (+10) 48 (-10) 14 (0) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

BJP’s lead over Congress among traders narrows to just four points

Vote % for Cong

in end Oct

Vote % for BJP

in end Oct

Vote % for Others

in end Oct

Traders 39 (+13) 43 (-16) 18 (+3)

Non-traders 41 (+13) 48 (-11) 11 (-2) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

Congress unable to get high support of women

Vote % for Cong

in end Oct

Vote % for BJP

in end Oct

Vote % for Others

in end Oct

Men 43 (+14) 45 (-14) 13 (0)

Women 39 (+10) 50 (-9) 11 (-1) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

Congress gains are most impressive in small towns followed by villages

Vote % for Cong

in end Oct

Vote % for BJP

in end Oct

Vote % for Others

in end Oct

Village 47 (+14) 45 (-14) 8 (0)

Town (50,000-1 lakh population) 46 (+23) 38 (-16) 16 (-7)

Small city (1-5 lakh population) 40 (+8) 50 (-9) 10 (+1)

Big city (>5 lakh population) 30 (+8) 51 (-17) 19 (+9) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

BJP’s losses greatest among youngest voters

Vote % for Cong

in end Oct

Vote % for BJP

in end Oct

Vote % for Others

in end Oct

Youngest voters (18-29 years) 42 (+14) 44 (-19) 14 (+5)

Young voters (30-39 years) 43 (+12) 49 (-9) 9 (-3)

Middle aged voters (40-59 years) 40 (+11) 47 (-11) 13 (0)

Elderly voters (above 60 years) 40 (+11) 50 (-9) 11 (-2) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

Rupani continues to be top choice for CM but Solanki & other Cong leaders are the big gainers

CM preference

%

Change since Aug

in % points

Vijay Rupani (BJP) 18 -6

Anandiben Patel (BJP) 7 +2

Bharatsinh Solanki (Cong) 7 +5

Narendra Modi (BJP) 5 -2

Shaktisinh Gohil (Cong) 3 +1

Hardik Patel (Other) 2 +2

Amit Shah (BJP) 2 0

Nitin Patel (BJP) 2 +1

Alpesh Thakor (Cong) 1 0

Shankersinh Vaghela (Other) 1 -1

Any other Congress leader 10 +4

Any other BJP leader 2 0


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Other leaders 1 -2

Did not take any name 39 -4 Question asked was: After the upcoming assembly election who would you like to see as the chief minister of Gujarat? The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e., respondents were not offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses.

Most important election issue – price rise even more of a concern now than two and a half months ago

Early August % End October %

Price rise 13 19

Unemployment 10 11

Poverty 9 10

Development 7 9

Condition of roads 7 6

Drinking water supply 5 6

Corruption 5 3

Farmer problems 3 2

GST or demonetisation 1 2

Electricity supply 1 2

Educational facilities 1 2

Housing 3 1

Other issues (1% or less) 8 7

Non-committal 27 20 Question asked was: If assembly elections in Gujarat take place tomorrow, then what will be the most important issue for you while voting? (Note down answer and consult codebook for coding). The question was asked in an open ended manner, i.e, respondents were not

offered any choices. These are their spontaneous responses

Steep decline in satisfaction with Central and State government’s performance, figure now in the 50s

Central Govt’s performance

%

State Govt’s performance

%

Fully satisfied 27 (-10) 28 (-9)

Somewhat satisfied 27 (-3) 29 (-3)

Somewhat dissatisfied 23 (+8) 20 (+6)

Fully dissatisfied 17 (+6) 19 (+6)

Non-committal 6 (-1) 4 (0)

TOTAL SATISFIED 54 (-13) 57 (-12)

TOTAL DISSATISFIED 40 (+14) 39 (+12) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS. Questions asked were: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the BJP government in Gujarat over the last five years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat). Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the Narendra Modi led BJP/NDA

government at the Centre over the last three and a half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat).

Decline in satisfaction with the performance of Modi and Rupani governments is even steeper when

we compare it with a survey done by Lokniti in May 2017

Satisfied with Central Govt’s

performance

%

Satisfied with State Govt’s

performance

%

May 2017 75 77

August 2017 67 69

October 2017 54 57 Note: May 2017 figures are from the Mood of the Nation Survey 2017 conducted by Lokniti in Gujarat; Sample size was 587.


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Most voters continue to believe that Modi has failed in bringing Acche Din including many who voted

for BJP in 2014

Agree that Narendra

Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din

%

Disagree that Narendra

Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din

%

No

opinion

%

Overall 49 (-1) 43 (+1) 8 (0)

BJP voters of 2014 48 (+4) 45 (-3) 7 (-1)

Congress voters of 2014 64 (0) 30 (+2) 6 (-2) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS. Question asked was: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement – Narendra Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din.

Modi continues to be the most liked leader but there has been a significant drop in his popularity,

Bharatsinh Solanki’s popularity sees highest increase

Like

%

Dislike

%

Narendra Modi 67 (-15) 29 (+15)

Vijay Rupani 59 (-14) 32 (+13)

Anandiben Patel 58 (-8) 34 (+7)

Rahul Gandhi 51 (+3) 40 (+2)

Bharatsinh Solanki 43 (+12) 32 (+4)

Amit Shah 42 (-8) 43 (+13)

Shankersinh Vaghela 36 (-9) 44 (+9)

Hardik Patel 32 (+4) 47 (+1)

Alpesh Thakor 31 (+1) 37 (+11)

Jignesh Mevani 23 (+7) 39 (+10)

Arvind Kejriwal 20 (na) 50 (na) Note: The rest of the respondents had not heard of them or did not give a response to the question. Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS. Arvind Kejriwal’s likeability was not probed in Round 1.

Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh are far more popular within their communities but many also dislike them;

Alpesh’s popularity among Kshatriyas has reduced quite a bit since August

Like

%

Dislike

%

Not heard of

him

%

Non-

committal

%

Hardik Patel (opinion among Patels only) 64 (+3) 30 (+3) 0 (-2) 6 (-4)

Alpesh Thakor (opinion among Kshatriyas only) 46 (-7) 34 (+15) 14 (-5) 6 (-3)

Jignesh Mevani (opinion among Dalits only) 37 (+6) 31 (+10) 18 (-17) 14 (+1) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS.

Kadva Patels strongly behind Hardik; Leuvas also have a more positive view of him now than August

Agree that Hardik

Patel used the Patidar

agitation for his own

personal benefit %

Disagree that Hardik

Patel used the Patidar

agitation for his own

personal benefit %

Non-committal

(%)

All voters 43 (-1) 35 (+6) 22 (-5)

Kadva Patel voters 20 (-11) 70 (+9) 10 (+2)

Leuva Patel voters 30 (-14) 55 (+9) 15 (+5) Note: Figures in parentheses show percentage point change since the August 2017 poll conducted in the State by Lokniti-CSDS. Question asked was: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement - Hardik Patel has used Patidar agitation for his own personal benefits.


10

The negative perception about demonetisation has nearly doubled in the last two and a half months


Demonetisation was a good move 55 36

Demonetisation was a so-so move 22 25

Demonetisation was a bad move 19 36 Question asked was: In your opinion, was the demonetisation decision taken by the Modi government good or bad? Note: The rest of the respondents did not give a response to the question.

GST unpopularity has grown: now, 2 in 5 see it as being bad, as opposed to 1 in 4 in August.


GST was a good move 38 24

GST was a so-so move 22 29

GST was a bad move 25 40 Question asked was: In your opinion, was the GST introduction decision taken by the Modi government good or bad? Note: The rest of the respondents did not give a response to the question.

Recent concessions made on GST have failed to satisfy most voters; traders particularly so

Satisfied with recent

GST concessions %

Dissatisfied with recent

GST concessions %

Non-committal

%

Overall 25 47 28

Traders 23 56 21

Non-traders 25 45 30 Question asked was: People have different opinions regarding the concessions given by central government in GST recently. Some people think these concessions are enough and are satisfied, while other view these not too much and are dissatisfied. Are you satisfied or not?

Over two in five know someone whose business/job was badly affected by GST or demonetisation

Know someone whose

business or job was badly

affected by GST or

demonetisation %

Don’t know anyone whose

business or job was badly

affected by GST or

demonetisation %

Non-committal %

Overall 44 29 27

Saurashtra and Kutchh 53 29 18

North Gujarat 46 30 24

Central Gujarat 27 29 44

South Gujarat 45 28 27 Question asked was: Do you know anyone whose employment or occupation has been badly impacted after demonetisation or GST?

Majority opposed to Ahmedabad-Mumbai Bullet Train, especially in Central Gujarat and Saurashtra

In favour of Bullet Train

between Ahmedabad

and Mumbai %

Instead of Bullet Train,

facilities in existing

trains should be

improved %

Non-committal

%

Overall 23 56 21

Saurashtra and Kutchh 24 61 15

North Gujarat 22 52 26

Central Gujarat 18 65 17

South Gujarat 24 51 25 Question asked was: People have different opinions about the bullet train to be run between Ahmadabad and Mumbai. Some think, our country should have bullet trains like Japan, while others are of the opinion that instead of a bullet train, the facilities in existing trains should be enhanced. What is your view about it?


11

Most voters of the opinion that Modi’s recent announcements of developmental projects in Gujarat

were made only to win elections; many non-Congress non-BJP voters also hold this view

Modi’s recent announcements of development projects in Gujarat were…

Really for

development %

Just for winning

elections %

Non-committal

%

Overall 36 46 18

Congress preferring voters 8 73 19

BJP preferring voters 63 18 19

Non-Cong, non-BJP voters 25 61 14 Question asked was: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced several developmental schemes in Gujarat recently. In your opinion, are these announcements really meant for development or to get an advantage in the election?

Two in three have heard of ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe’; among young voters awareness is even more

Heard of ‘Vikas gando thayo chhe’ %

Overall 66

18-29 years old 75

30-39 years old 68

40-59 years old 63

60 years old or above 56 Question asked was: Have you heard about ‘Vikas gando thayo chhe’?

Nearly half who have heard of ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe’ say it depicts Gujarat’s real situation many

non-Congress non-BJP voters also of this view

Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe…

Depicts the real

condition of Gujarat %

Far removed from

Reality %

Non-committal

%

Overall 49 27 24

Congress preferring voters 59 16 25

BJP preferring voters 36 39 25

Non-Cong, non-BJP voters 59 19 22 Question asked was: (If heard of Vikas gando thayo chhe) Then in your opinion, does ‘Vikas gando thayo chhe’ truly describe the economic condition of Gujarat or what is being shown is far removed from the ground reality?

BJP’s vote share drops among those who have heard of ‘Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe’; it reduces even

further among those who see the campaign as justified

Vote for BJP in

end Oct %

Vote for Cong in

end Oct %

Vote for Others in

end Oct %

Not heard of Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe 52 41 7

Heard of Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe 45 41 14

Heard of it and view it as being justified 33 50 17

Most, including many old BJP voters, say there should be a probe into Amit Shah’s son’s company

Inquiry should

be done %

No need for

investigation %

Non-committal

%

Overall 55 11 34

Traditional Congress voters 67 7 26

Traditional BJP voters 48 17 35

Traditional voters of other parties 70 6 24

Not a supporter of any party 69 6 25 Question asked was: According to a recent news item, the income of the company owned by Amit Shah’s son Jai Shah has multiplied thousands of times in a year. Jai Shah has termed this news as false while the Congress is asking for an investigation of Jai Shah’s company. What do you think---should there be an investigation of Jai Shah’s company or there is no need of an inquiry?


12

Modi’s poll rhetoric that Congress hates Gujarat and Gujaratis is not finding many takers

%

Agree that ‘Congress has always insulted Gujarat and Gujaratis’ 28

Disagree that ‘Congress has always insulted Gujarat and Gujaratis’ 51

Non-committal 21 Question asked was: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement - Congress has always insulted Gujarat and Gujaratis.

Is ‘Congress Ave Chhe’ slogan clicking? Many under impression Cong’s going to win from their seat

Congress will

win from my

seat %

BJP will win

from my seat

%

Others will win

from my seat %

Can’t say who will

win from my seat

%

Overall 38 37 5 13

Congress preferring voters 75 5 3 11

BJP preferring voters 8 72 2 11

Non-Cong, non-BJP voters 31 14 21 24 Note: The rest of the respondents did not give a response to the question. Question asked was: In your view, which party will win from your assembly constituency in the upcoming assembly election?

Many non-Congress non-BJP voters feel that the Congress will win in Gujarat

Congress will

win in Gujarat

%

BJP will win

in Gujarat %

Others will win in

Gujarat %

Can’t say who will

win in Gujarat %

Overall 38 39 3 12

Congress preferring voters 75 6 1 11

BJP preferring voters 6 74 2 10

Non-Cong, non-BJP voters 36 14 14 20 Note: The rest of the respondents did not give a response to the question. Question asked was: According to your assessment, which party will win or be a leading party in entire Gujarat?

Documents

Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, … News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, Round 2 1 November 9, 2017 Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News Gujarat Pre-Election Tracker, Round 2 About