London polling latestfiles.themj.co.uk/londoncouncils2015.pdf · Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003

London polling latestBen Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

[email protected]

@benatipsosmori

21 November 2015

So what’s worrying voters and residents?

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

NHS UNEMPLOYMENT

CRIME/LAW &

ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION*

*Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

Issues Facing Britain: November

Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th October – 9th November 2015


Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

49%

34%

27%

21%

18%

17%

15%

14%

14%

13%

Immigration/immigrants

NHS

Economy

Housing

Poverty/Inequality

Unemployment

Low pay/fair wages

Crime/Law and Order/ASB

Education/Schools

Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism

Top mentions %

Londoners see the big challenges differently

Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing London today?

Source: Ipsos MORI / London Councils

54%

41%

27%

22%

16%

16%

9%

8%

39%

15%

14%

8%

6%

3%

2%

1%

Housing

Transport / Roads / Pavements

Community / Population

Economy / Economic situation

Crime and safety

Public services

Environment

Education / Training

MOST/OTHER

IMPORTANT ISSUES

MOST IMPORTANT

ISSUE

Top mentions %

In London, housing now a bigger issue than transport

and the economy

Base (2015): 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015/ Base (2013): 1,000 adults in London 18+, 18 –

29 October 2013. Red arrow denotes a significant increase/ decrease since 2013.

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing London today?


54%

41%

27%

22%

16%

16%

9%

8%

37%

47%

24%

39%

26%

17%

10%

11%

Housing

Transport / Roads / Pavements

Community / Population

Economy / Economic situation

Crime and safety

Public services

Environment

Education / Training

Top mentions %

2015

2013

At record levels everywhere


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

London

GB

%

Base: c.1,000 British adults and c.150 adults from London age 18+ interviewed face-to-face in home

each month since 2008Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Housing…

Link between concern and house prices?

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% mentioning housing as among/the most

important issue(s) facing GB

UK average house price

Sources: Ipsos MORI Issues Index/

Halifax House Price Index (All(Mon)NSA)

£67,775

(Mar‘97)

£204,119

(Oct’15)

6%(Mar’97)

20%

(Oct15)

£200,578

(Jul‘07)

16%

(Jul’07)

% mentioning £ UK average house price

r2 = 0.41

Base: c.1,000 British adults aged 18+ interviewed face-to-face in home

Has housing in London reached crisis point...?

Londoners are stressed about it!

Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015.

To what extent, if at all, do you personally feel that concerns about the cost

of your housing cause you stress these days? Do they cause you…


23

21

32

22

1% A great deal

% A fair

amount

% Not

very much

% None

at all

Don’t know

44%

54%

75% of private renters

say housing costs

cause them a

great deal or fair

amount of stress

Housing will be a key issue during next year’s

Mayoral race…

It is the single biggest thing that

Londoners need from their next Mayor:

a solution to the housing crisis.

Sadiq Khan

If we don’t deal with the housing crisis

there is a chance London will become a

miserable, less dynamic and less

successful place.

Zac Goldsmith

275 towers of over 20 storeys on the blocks/under construction

Most prefer to live in streets not tower blocks

Key decision criteria for tall buildings

2%

2%

2%

11%

11%

18%

27%

32%

35%

53%

Don’t know

None of these

Whether it provides public access to theupper floors for view purposes

Whether it adds public spaces at groundlevel

How tall is it

Whether it contributes to London'simage in the world

Whether it provides new jobopportunities

Whether it proves affordable new homes

Whether it has a good design

Whether it looks right in relation to itssurrounds

Q1a/Q2a Which, if any, of the following have you done in the past 12 months? Base (n=2,600)

Q6. Still thinking about tall buildings over 20 storeys high, which if any, of

these factors should be given highest/second highest priority by those

deciding whether or not a new tall building should be built in London?

Base: 500 London adults 16+ (online), 14 Feb – 18 Feb 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI for New London Architecture

But we do need to build…

A risk of flight from the capital?


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about housing in London…?


…44%(This rises to 64% of private renters)

…34%(This rises to 48% of private renters)

‘I would consider leaving London

if house prices and rents continue

to rise’

‘I am considering moving out of London

and taking a job in different city or

region because the rent/ mortgage

costs in London are too high’

…particularly alarming amongst young Londoners


London adults aged 18-34 are…


…more likely to

be stressed by

housing costs

(62% vs. 54%)

…more likely to

be renting

(57% vs. 48%)

…more likely to be

considering leaving

London to work

because housing

costs are too high

(46% vs. 34%)

At the same time, important not to raise

expectations… are Londoners losing faith?

Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+ / All those who do not own their own home (334), 27 August – 7 September 2015.

I am now going to read out some statements about housing in London. Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of them:


82

20

9

72

% Disagree % Agree

RENTERS: I don’t believe I will

ever be able to afford to buy a

home in London

ALL LONDONERS: Housing in

London will become more

affordable over the next two

years

Before today, how much, if anything, did you

know about the Government proposal to

extend the “Right to buy” scheme?

The new Housing Bill

and the London dynamic…?

11

22

29

20

18

% Never heard of

% Heard of,

know nothing

about

% A fair amount

% A great

deal

% Just a little

33%

38%

Source: Ipsos MORI / London CouncilsBase: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015

36

45

16

3 % Support


Tenure and support for Right to Buy

% No feelings

either way

% Don’t know

% Oppose

% Don’t know

% No feelings

either way

% Oppose

53

26

14

7

% Support

To what extent do you support or oppose the policy of councils being

required to sell off some of their housing in order to give housing association

tenants the chance to own their own home?

Base: 508 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015

Renters Owner occupiersVs.

Londoners want assurances that funds generated will

genuinely benefit the city


Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree [with the following statements about possible implications of extending Right to Buy]…?


I support it if it means

some of the funds

generated may be spent

outside London

I support it only if all of the

funds generated are spent on

tackling London’s housing

crisis

Disagree 60%

Agree 26% Agree 69%

Disagree 21%

It’s sombre reading,

but there is some cause

for optimism…

Londoners still trust you more than Central Government

to make the important decisions locally

Base (2015): 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015 / Base (2013): 1,000 adults in London

18+, 18 – 29 October 2013. Red arrow denotes a significant increase/decrease since 2013.

Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in

your local area?


61%

9%

9%

14%

7%

57%

11%

10%

18%

4%

Your local council

The Greater London Authority (GLA)

Central government

Don’t trust any of these

Don’t know

2015

2013

Majority of Londoners support transferring more powers to the capital

Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015.

To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose transferring more powers to

London?


6219

15

4

% Support % No feelings either way% Oppose % Don't know“There has been growing

debate about devolution, that

is to say transferring more

powers over budgets and

services from central

government to cities and

counties in England. By

services, I mean for example

housing, skills and training,

support to help people back

into work and health. In London,

this would mean transferring

more powers to London local

government – that is the

London Mayor and the London

Boroughs…”

… especially on housing

Base: All adults aged 16-75 in London (532), 18 – 29 September 2015

For each of the following services, do you think decisions should be taken

nationally for England as a whole or locally by local bodies such as councils

or other local service providers?

Source: Ipsos MORI/ NLGN/ PWC

22%

35%

37%

41%

47%

59%

61%

59%

46%

43%

40%

34%

22%

20%

Nationally Locally

New housing developments

Transport, such as buses, cycle network and trains

Schools and further education colleges

Crime and policing services

Health and social care services

Welfare benefit payments

New infrastructure projects related to air, rail & and road

networks

7

16

34

17

22

4

Despite incredibly tough fiscal context, in London

councils have risen to the challenge


Thinking about local services overall, do you think the quality of public

services has got better or worse in the last five years or has it stayed the same?


% Got much worse

% Got a little worse

% Stayed the same

% Got a little better

% Don’t know% Got much better

23%

39%

57% Londoners

= got better/

no change

And nationally we see no change from two years ago

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11 – 13 September 2015

Thinking about public services overall, do you think the quality of public

services has got better or worse in the last five years or has it stayed the

same?

Source: Ipsos MORI/ 2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

3%

4%

12%

12%

42%

39%

20%

23%

20%

20%

3%

3%

Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know

16%

40%15%

43%

September 2015

September 2013

… and national concern about future effects of cuts

has decreased significantly

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8 – 11 August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

19%

19%

42%

27%

28%

30%

5%

22%

6%

1%

Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know

52%46%

33%61%

August 2015

November 2012

And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and

your family over the next 12 months?

13%

10%

27%

26%

7%

6%

8%

8%

16%

12%

21%

22%

12%

16%

12%

11%

45%

51%

37%

34%

54%

47%

58%

57%

11%

13%

6%

8%

10%

12%

9%

10%

12%

12%

6%

7%

11%

14%

8%

10%

3%

2%

3%

3%

5%

5%

4%

5%


Street

lighting

Refuse

collection

Street

cleaning

Recycling

collection

No big shifts in views of local street scene services –

slight increases in people saying they’ve got worse

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8 – 11 August 2015 and 11 – 13 September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/ 2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

19% 20%

20% 17%

19%

26%

22%

15%

22%

21%

48%

25%

48% 12%

29% 23%

Aug-15

2013

Aug-15

2013

Sep-15

2013

Aug-15

2013

Do you think [each service] has got better or worse over the last five years, or

has it stayed the same? Is that much or a little better/ worse?

4%

4%

8%

8%

7%

10%

13%

11%

20%

28%

39%

37%

18%

18%

11%

14%

49%

39%

8%

11%

2%

2%

20%

20%


Aug-15

2013

Aug-15

2013

Concern about road maintenance remains, and

creeping up for buses, though less acute in London

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8 – 11 August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/ 2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

19% 25%

21% 19%

11%

57%14%

67%

Road

maintenance

Bus services

Do you think [each service] has got better or worse over the last five years,

or has it stayed the same? Is that much or a little better/ worse?

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

13%

11%

17%

14%

20%

16%

15%

16%

19%

21%

16%

19%

35%

40%

47%

47%

49%

43%

13%

19%

10%

11%

5%

12%

10%

10%

6%

5%

4%

7%

7%

4%

1%

1%

5%

4%


Users on the whole tend to be more positive about

services – but is dissatisfaction creeping up?

Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8 – 11 August 2015 and 11 – 13 September 2015Source: Ipsos MORI/ 2013 BBC Bailout

Anniversary poll

35% 19%

36%9%

32%

16%

28% 23%

35%

29%27%

16%

Do you think [each service] has got better or worse in the last five years, or

has it stayed the same? Is that much or a little better/ worse? USERS ONLY

Leisure

centre

users

Parks &

open

spaces

users

Library

users

2015 (509)

2013 (525)

2015 (847)

2013 (795)

2015 (413)

2013 (562)

Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and

social care than they were two years ago

34

4%

2%

11%

7%

11%

10%

7%

11%

16%

17%

18%

17%

22%

27%

36%

34%

41%

33%

10%

16%

14%

19%

14%

19%

12%

20%

16%

16%

14%

19%

44%

24%

7%

7%

2%

3%

2013

2015

2013

2015

2013

2015


GP

surgeries

Hospitals

Care for the

elderly

Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

27% 38%

29% 28%

24% 35%

27% 30%

13% 36%

11% 22%

Users also on balance negative – esp care of elderly

35

9%

5%

11%

7%

10%

10%

13%

17%

16%

19%

19%

17%

27%

30%

36%

33%

42%

32%

13%

15%

15%

19%

14%

20%

19%

26%

17%

17%

14%

19%

12%

7%

5%

5%

1%

2%

2013 (210)

2015 (172)

2013 (888)

2015 (807)

2013 (938)

2015 (904)


Users of

GP

surgeries

Users of

hospitals

Users of

care for the

elderly

Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE)

27% 39%

29% 28%

26% 36%

27% 32%

22% 41%

22% 32%

Rising anxiety about NHS…

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

36THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Source: Ipsos MORI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-0

2

Oct-

02

Ma

y-0

3

Dec-0

3

Jul-

04

Fe

b-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Ap

r-06

Nov-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Oct-

09

Ma

y-1

0

Dec-1

0

Jul-

11

Fe

b-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Ap

r-13

Nov-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

55

19Better

Worse

LOCAL POLICINGUNDER PRESSURE

5%

3%

10%

9%

43%

39%

15%

21%

13%

18%

13%

10%

2013

Sep-15


The police

More worried about policing

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll

DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE?

12% 39%

28%15%

A third also expect local policing to get worse in the next few

years

THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED

OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI

3%12%

46%

26%

9%

4%

Get much better Get a little better Stay the same

15%

35%

CUTS , EXPECTATIONS AND MISPERCEPTIONS

AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR?

40%

28%

November 2012

August 2015

People think only 28% of planned cuts

have been made – less than they

thought in 2012

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI

I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE.

-20%-9%

-12%-6%

4%-3%

-1%-5%

-19%0%

13%-2%

-13%1%

-49%-5%

65%11%

Source: Ipsos MORI

Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid]

Housing [housing development: local

authority and other social housing]

Education [all education services from pre-primary

to tertiary and others*]

Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and

old age personal social services]

Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway

and other transport]

Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and

pensions]

Health services / NHS [includes medical services

and research and central and other health services]

Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and

other defence and foreign military aid]

Policing [includes immigration and

citizenship and other police services]

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

Perceived

Actual

But public have little idea of what is actually happening….

In conclusion - change is coming (as always in London)

Most popular city in the worldTechnology changes fastInfrastructure more slowlyTransparency and lack of trust…Greatest human needs unchangedThings aren’t so badGood luck!

Thank you

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @benatipsosmori

Documents

London polling latestfiles.themj.co.uk/londoncouncils2015.pdf · Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003