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WEBINAR
Impact of COVID-19 crisis on inbound air travel to Europe
April 15, 2020
2© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
ForwardKeys has data that captures and reflects the entire traveller journey
Searching
Flight Searches Seat Capacity Total Air Market
Forecast
FutureOffer
Bookings & Tickets
on-the-book
Incident impact
Widespread declines across Europe in Q1
4© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Arrivals to world regions Jan-Mar 2020*
1 January to 31 March 2020; Year-on-Year variations by region
Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March
2020 vs same period in 2019.
Only considered pax staying
1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
AmericasYoY Var: -26.7%
* excluding domestic
Europe is the second most impacted world region in Q1, 2020
EuropeYoY Var: -36.4%
Asia PacificYoY Var: -48.7%
Africa &
Middle EastYoY Var: -29.0%
Total InboundYoY Var: -38.2%
5© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Long-haul arrivals decline across all European sub-regions
Central &
Eastern
EuropeYoY Var: -40.7%
Share: 7%
Northern
EuropeYoY Var: -33.9%
Share: 21%
Western
EuropeYoY Var: -39.7%
Share: 32%
Arrivals to European regions Jan-Mar 2020*
1 January to 31 March 2020; Market shares by region and Year-on-Year variations
Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March
2020 vs same period in 2019.
Only considered pax staying
1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
* excluding domestic
Southern
EuropeYoY Var: -38.2%
Share: 40%
6© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 European markets – Italy with the most declines
YoY % var % Share
United Kingdom -32.3% 15.3%
France -37.3% 13.5%
Spain -34.6% 12.1%
Italy -48.0% 9.7%
Germany -44.8% 9.1%
Turkey -34.9% 8.8%
Netherlands -37.6% 3.7%
Portugal -21.8% 3.6%
Switzerland -35.5% 3.6%
Russia -43.5% 1.9%
Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March
2020 vs same period in 2019.
Only considered pax staying
1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
* Only excludes Intereuropean travel
Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul* travellers Q1 2020
7© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
-250.0%
-200.0%
-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr
Future travel bookings to Europe plummet by 75.9% from January
Bookings made for International travel to Europe by departure region6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations
Asia Pacific -104.9%
Europe -71.0%
Americas -86.7%
Africa &
Middle East-69.5%
Total Global -80.5%
Bookings made in Q1*
YoY % change
Introduction of travel
restrictions in China
More cancellations
than new bookings
Lombardy COVID-19
outbreak
Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs
same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
*Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April
8© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
The Lombardy outbreak halts new bookings to Italy and Europe
Arrivals from 20 January to 29 February
2020 vs same period on previous year.
Only considered pax staying
1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
-1400
-900
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100
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1100
-250%
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0%
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an
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CO
VID
19 c
onfirm
ed c
ases Ita
ly
Year-
on-Y
ear
varia
tio
ns
Italy Europe Covid19 confirmed cases in Italy
More cancellations than new bookings
First two COVID19 cases in Italy
Bookings made for arrivals to Europe & Italy from worldwide destinations
20 January to 29 February 2020; Year-on-Year variations
9© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
-250.0%
-200.0%
-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr
The whole of Europe shares similar trend
Bookings made for International travel to Europe by arrival region6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations
Southern Europe -82.9%
Western Europe -79.1%
Northern Europe -78.6%
Central &
Eastern Europe-79.3%
Total Europe -80.5%
Bookings made in Q1*
YoY % change
Introduction of travel
restrictions in China
More cancellations
than new bookings
Lombardy COVID-19
outbreak
Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs
same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
*Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April
10© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Air capacity continues its downward spiral
Seat Capacity evolution for Worldwide travel from
January 2020 Year-to-Date vs the same period in 2019
Air Capacity for flight dates between 01 Jan – 19 Apr 2020 vs
same period in 2019, for Worldwide travel*, as of 14 Apr 2020.
*(Excluding domestic)
Source:
ForwardKeys &
**The air capacity seats are reported as per the data parameters listed above. They may differ due to the quick changing developments within the aviation sector, including unreported or unfiled seat
numbers by airline operators.**
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mill
ions o
f seats
2020 2019
11© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Europe locks its borders
No restrictions
Visa restrictions
Flight suspension
Partial border closure
Complete border closure
Source: IATA Timatic & British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Data as per 14 April 2020.
The current state of travel restrictions in Europe
Outlook
13© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
All top European destinations show similar outlook for the Summer
* Only excludes Intereuropean travel
Bookings confirmed as 12 April 2020 vs same period last year,
for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
YoY % var % Share
Italy -57.5% 14.0%
United Kingdom -54.7% 14.0%
France -54.0% 10.5%
Spain -56.7% 8.4%
Germany -53.5% 6.7%
Russia -42.6% 5.0%
Greece -47.7% 4.2%
Netherlands -52.8% 4.2%
Portugal -50.7% 3.5%
Ireland -42.6% 3.4%
Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul travellers – June, July & August 2020
14© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Long haul flight bookings to Europe for travel in June, July and August
Bookings made from 1 June 2019 to 31 March 2020 vs same period last
year, for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2019-20 2018-19
More cancellations than bookings
The silver lining for Europe - Most bookings for the Summer are made in May- July
15© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
Italians appetite for travel persists despite being in quarantine!
Breakdown of flight searches from Italy performed in March for a departure in…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 2019
Flight searches from 1 to 31 March
2020 vs same period in 2019.
Only considered pax staying
1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys Flight Search data.
16© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.
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