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LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC EXTREMES OVER SPAIN. By M. Brunet , With the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. Jones *Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK Meeting of the CCl Expert Team on Climate Monitoring - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC EXTREMES OVER SPAINEXTREMES OVER SPAIN
By By M. BrunetM. Brunet, , With the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. JonesWith the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. Jones
*Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain*Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UKClimatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK
Meeting of the CCl Expert Team on Climate Monitoring20-22 September 2006, Tarragona, Spain
AIM:AIM: To document changes in To document changes in climatic extremes occurrence over climatic extremes occurrence over Spain across the 20th century with Spain across the 20th century with a special emphasis in the recent a special emphasis in the recent period of strong Spanish warming period of strong Spanish warming (1973-2005)(1973-2005)
OUTLINE:OUTLINE: Data and AnalysisData and Analysis
Changes in temperature extremesChanges in temperature extremes
Changes in precipitation extremesChanges in precipitation extremes
THE DATATHE DATA22 Daily 22 Daily maximum and maximum and minimum minimum temperature temperature time series time series recovered under recovered under the framework the framework of the EU-of the EU-funded project funded project EMULATE EMULATE ((http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cruhttp://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/emulate.html/projects/emulate.html))
Localization Localization MapMapAvailable versus Available versus potential datapotential data
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
daily
dat
a
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
n. o
f s
tati
ons
available data potential data stations
THE ANALYSISTHE ANALYSIS The raw temperature data wereThe raw temperature data were
Minimised accounting for the “screen bias”Minimised accounting for the “screen bias” Quality Controlled (QCed)Quality Controlled (QCed) Homogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described inHomogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described in
Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset for Spain (1850-2003), for Spain (1850-2003), Int. J. Climatol.,Int. J. Climatol., in press (now online on the IJC website in press (now online on the IJC website))
And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches
The adjusted daily data were converted in the following climate extreme indices The adjusted daily data were converted in the following climate extreme indices and analysed both on an annual and seasonal basisand analysed both on an annual and seasonal basis::
Exc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDIExc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDI
Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD
The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method.according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method.
Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, 1987)1987)
PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. The resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotationThe resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotation
EXPLORING TRENDS AND EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN SOME SELECTED CHANGES IN SOME SELECTED
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES INDICES TEMPERATURE EXTREMES INDICES DURING THE 20TH CENTURY AND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY AND THE RECENT PERIOD OF FORCED THE RECENT PERIOD OF FORCED
WARMING OVER SPAIN (1973-WARMING OVER SPAIN (1973-2005)2005)
Changes in percentile based Changes in percentile based temperature indices (TX/TN2p, 5p, 10p, temperature indices (TX/TN2p, 5p, 10p,
90p, 95p and 98p) on annual basis and in 90p, 95p and 98p) on annual basis and in no. of daysno. of days
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
TX2p
TX5p
TX10p
Lineal
(TX10p)Lineal
(TX5p)Lineal
(TX2p)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
TX90p
TX95p
TX98p
Lineal(TX98p)Lineal(TX95p)Lineal(TX90p)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
TN2p
TN5p
TN10p
Lineal
(TN10p)Lineal
(TN5p)Lineal
(TN2p)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
TN90p
TN95
TN98
Comparing trends among indices Comparing trends among indices and periods (in ºC/decade)and periods (in ºC/decade)
IndicesIndices 1901-1901-20032003
1973-1973-20052005
TX2pTX2p -0.23***-0.23*** -0.70***-0.70***TX5pTX5p -0.51***-0.51*** -1.21***-1.21***TX10pTX10p -0.85***-0.85*** -2.04***-2.04***TX90pTX90p 0.83***0.83*** 3.11***3.11***TX95pTX95p 0.54***0.54*** 1.78***1.78***TX98pTX98p 0.28***0.28*** 0.68**0.68**TN2pTN2p -0.09+-0.09+ -1.15***-1.15***TN5pTN5p -0.26**-0.26** -1.84***-1.84***TN10pTN10p 0.51***0.51*** -2.70***-2.70***TN90pTN90p 0.59***0.59*** 3.74***3.74***TN95pTN95p 0.32***0.32*** 2.52***2.52***TN98pTN98p 0.16***0.16*** 1.34***1.34***
Long-term Spanish Long-term Spanish warming was driven warming was driven by highest reductions by highest reductions (increases) of (increases) of extremely cold extremely cold (warm) days than for (warm) days than for increases increases (reductions) of (reductions) of extremely warm extremely warm (cold) nights(cold) nights
Slight shift in this Slight shift in this pattern during 1973-pattern during 1973-2005: Larger 2005: Larger increases of warm increases of warm nights and days than nights and days than reductions in cold reductions in cold nights and daysnights and days
Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax lower temperature extremes: Tmax lower
percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.14**/ - 0.03
- 0.32***/ - 0.14
- 0.64***/ - 0.66
Lineal (- 0.64***/ -0.66)Lineal (- 0.32***/ -0.14)Lineal (- 0.14**/ -0.03)
Spring
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.12***/ - 0.30**
- 0.35***/ - 1.05***
- 0.72***/ - 2.14***
Summer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.16***/ - 0.63**
- 0.40***/ - 1.32**
- 0.79***/ - 2.24**
Lineal (- 0.79***/ -2.24**)Lineal (- 0.40***/ -1.32**)Lineal (- 0.16***/ -0.63**)
Autumn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.14***/ - 0.24*
- 0.39***/ - 0.78*
- 0.71***/ - 1.33*
Lineal (- 0.71***/ -1.33*)Lineal (- 0.39***/ -0.78*)Lineal (- 0.14***/ -0.24*)
Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax upper temperature extremes: Tmax upper
percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
N D
ays
0.66***/0.85
0.38***/0.07
0.19***/ - 0.10
Spring
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.71***/4.0***
0.4***/2.53***
0.18**/1.18***
Summer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.81***/4.77***
0.45***/3.10***
0.22***/1.74***
Lineal(0.22***/1.74***)Lineal(0.45***/3.10***)Lineal(0.81***/4.77***)
Autumn
0
5
10
15
20
25
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.57***/0.79
0.31***/0.63
0.13***/0.13
Lineal(0.13***/0.13)Lineal(0.31***/0.63)Lineal(0.57***/0.79)
Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin upper temperature extremes: Tmin upper
percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.43**/ - 0.36
0.20**/ - 0.06
0.13**/0.01
Lineal(0.13**/0.01)Lineal (0.20**/ -0.06)Lineal (0.43**/ -0.36)
Spring
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.52**/4.37***
0.25**/2.54***
0.13*/1.31***
Summer
0
10
20
30
40
50
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.54**/6.86***
0.28*/4.27***
0.16*/2.45***
Lineal(0.16*/2.45***)Lineal(0.28*/4.27***)Lineal(0.54**/6.86***)
Autumn
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
N D
ays
0.47***/2.58**
0.23**/1.51**
0.10*/0.64**
Lineal(0.10*/0.64**)Lineal(0.23**/1.51**)Lineal(0.47***/2.58**)
Seasonal changes in daily Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin lower temperature extremes: Tmin lower
percentiles indices percentiles indices Winter
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.08*/ - 0.03
- 0.22*/0.07
- 0.43**/ - 0.15
Lineal (-0.43**/ - 0.15)Lineal (-0.22*/0.07)Lineal (- 0.08*/ -0.03)
Spring
0
5
10
15
20
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.06*/ - 0.24*- 0.18**/ - 0.79**Lineal (- 0.31**/ - 2.12***)
Summer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
- 0.13***/ - 0.35**
- 0.27***/ - 0.90**
- 0.50***/ - 1.82**
Lineal (- 0.50***/ -1.82**)Lineal (- 0.27***/ -0.90**)Lineal (- 0.13***/ -0.35**)
Autumn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
N D
ays
- 0.08**/ - 0.49**
- 0.16**/ - 1.06***
- 0.32**/ - 2.19***
Lineal (- 0.32**/ -2.19***)Lineal (- 0.16**/ -1.06***)Lineal (- 0.08**/ -0.49**)
Spatial patterns for some temperature extreme indices: Number of very extremely colds days Tmax<2p. Trends in days/decade for 1901-2005 and 1973-2005. Bold (italic) indicates significance at 1% (5%) confidence level.
0.5 9
0 .1 2
0 .64
0 .26
0 .51
0 .3 5
0.6 3
0 .0 4
0 .4 6
0 .74
0.7 1
0 .5 5
0.2 9
0 .26
0 .6 9
0.7 6
0 .6 5
0 .54
0 .76
0.2 2
0.8 0 0 .76
0 .4 4
0 .31
0 .51
0 .04
0 .3 1
0.7 3
0 .50
0 .80
0.6 8
0 .14
0.3 6
0.5 3
0 .61
0.6 0
0 .22
0 .30
0 .12
0 .66
0.1 6
0 .2 9
0 .33 0.2 5
0.3 9
0 .7 9
0 .22
0 .70
0 .59
0 .2 0
0.1 2
0 .2 2
0 .0 9
0 .21
0.3 7
0 .3 0
0.5 3
0 .52
0 .5 0
0.1 2
0 .5 0
0 .25
0 .37
0.7 0
0.0 9 0 .44
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
-0.24/-0.65-0.24/-0.65
-0.21/-0.61-0.21/-0.61
-0.13/--0.13/-0.850.85
Number of Number of warm days warm days (daily TX > (daily TX >
90p)90p)
0.4 9
0 .3 0
0 .45
0 .67
0 .77
0 .3 8
0.4 8
0 .3 7
0 .2 7
0 .62
0.5 7
0 .6 4
0.2 1
0 .29
0 .7 1
0.5 2
0 .6 6
0 .44
0 .66
0.4 6
0.6 6 0 .63
0.4 2
0 .3 6
0 .72
0 .14
0 .48
0 .7 1
0.5 6
0 .6 6
0 .8 0
0 .42
0.4 9
0 .4 0
0.4 0
0 .41
0 .4 8
0.6 6
0 .3 2
0 .71
0 .46
0.2 0
0.5 8 0 .47
0.6 0
0 .7 1
0 .29
0 .65
0 .29
0 .4 1
0.4 1
0 .5 0
0 .3 5
0 .42
0.3 1
0 .4 3
0.7 4
0 .74
0 .3 7
0.2 6
0 .3 9
0 .39
0 .32
0.7 3
0.2 6 0 .52
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
0.82/2.980.82/2.98
0.81/2.970.81/2.97
0.74/2.850.74/2.85
Number of Number of very warm very warm nights TN > nights TN >
95p95p
0.5 5
0 .7 5
0 .24
0 .76
0 .51
0 .3 1
0.5 7
0 .1 7
0 .3 3
0 .71
0.3 2
0 .4 4
0.4 8
0 .76
0 .6 6
- 0.0 3
0 .4 5
0 .63
0 .42
0.7 3
0.5 4 0 .67
0.6 2
0 .5 3
0 .68
0 .27
0 .31
0 .6 8
0.5 9
0 .7 8
0 .7 2
0 .13
0.2 4
0 .6 6
0.6 6
0 .46
0 .2 3
0.3 4
0 .2 1
0 .66
0 .45
0.5 1
0.3 0 0 .45
0.2 4
0 .1 6
0 .52
0 .36
0 .65
0 .3 0
0.1 4
0 .3 4
0 .4 1
0 .36
0.6 7
0 .4 4
0.2 5
0 .11
0 .4 6
0.8 3
0 .6 7
0 .22
0 .56
0.2 1
0.6 0 0 .38
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
0.41/3.500.41/3.50
0.44/2.730.44/2.73
0.200.20//1.701.70
Annual changes in the duration of warm Annual changes in the duration of warm and cold spellsand cold spells (WSDI and CSDI in n. (WSDI and CSDI in n.
days/decade)days/decade)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
0.44/3.96
- 0.48/ - 0.78
Lineal (- 0.48/ -0.78)Lineal(0.44/3.96)
EXPLORING TRENDS AND EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
EXTREMES OCCURRENCEEXTREMES OCCURRENCE
Annual changes of very (R>95p) and Annual changes of very (R>95p) and very extremely wets (R>98p) days very extremely wets (R>98p) days ((in in
mm/decade)mm/decade)
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
R95:2.25*/ - 0.44
R98:1.75*/1.33
Lineal(R98:1.75*/1.33)Lineal (R95:2.25*/ -0.44)
Seasonal changes in the fraction of Seasonal changes in the fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th precipitation above of the 90th, 95th
and 98th percentiles and 98th percentiles ((in %/decade)in %/decade)WINTER
0
20
40
60
80
100
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
%
0.17/0.73
0.46*/0.98
0.06/ - 0.91
Lineal (0.06/ -0.91)Lineal(0.46*/0.98)Lineal(0.17/0.73)
SPRING
0
20
40
60
80
100
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
%
- 0.11/0.10
0.10/1.70
0.38*/ - 0.08
Lineal (0.38*/ -0.08)Lineal(0.10/1.70)Lineal (-0.11/0.10)
SUMMER
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
%
- 0.42**/ - 1.37*
- 0.08/ - 1.92
- 0.13/ - 1.81
Lineal (- 0.13/ - 1.81)
Lineal (- 0.08/ - 1.92)
Lineal (- 0.42**/ -1.37*)
AUTUMN
0
20
40
60
80
100
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
%
- 0.05/1.29
- 0.15/1.85
- 0.15/ - 1.12
Lineal (-0.15/ - 1.12)Lineal (-0.15/1.85)Lineal (-0.05/1.29)
Changes in the greatest 1- and 5-days Changes in the greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall total rainfall (trends(trends in mm/decade)in mm/decade)
0
30
60
90
120
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
R1day:0.27/0.05
R5days:1.20***/0.54
Seasonal changes in daily rainfall Seasonal changes in daily rainfall intensity above the 90th, 95th and intensity above the 90th, 95th and
98th percentiles98th percentiles (SDII) (SDII)Winter
0
10
20
30
40
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
0.17***/ - 0.22
0.28***/0.29
0.39***/0.05
Spring
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
0.10**/0.04
0.12*/0.04
0.20*/0.32
Lineal(0.20*/0.32)Lineal(0.12*/0.04)Lineal(0.10**/0.04)
Summer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
- 0.11*/ - 0.54*
- 0.14*/ - 0.93*
- 0.09/ - 1.07*
Lineal (- 0.09/ -1.07*)Lineal (- 0.14*/ -0.93*)Lineal (- 0.11*/ -0.54*)
Autumn
0
10
20
30
40
50
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
mm
0.08/ - 0.24
0.07/ - 0.09
0.09/ - 0.56
Lineal (0.09/ -0.56)Lineal (0.07/ -0.09)Lineal (0.08/ -0.24)
Annual and seasonal changes in the Annual and seasonal changes in the no. of consecutive dry days (CDD)no. of consecutive dry days (CDD)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
2001
N D
ays
W:- 0.08/1.69
Sp:- 0.034**/1.29*
Su:- 0.95***/0.39
Au:- 0.28*/- 1.09
An:0.03/0.42
THANKS!!THANKS!!
ANY QUESTIONS?ANY QUESTIONS?