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Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Jiyong Eom and Leon E. Clarke JGCRI, USA
Priyadarshi R. Shukla IIM Ahmedabad, India
Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework
Some recent efforts using GCAM- IIM version
! Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. 2011. Sustainable energy transformations in India under climate policy. Sustainable Development, DOI: 10.1002/sd.516
! Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: A targeted approach. Under review
! Chaturvedi V, Eom J, Clarke LE and Shukla PR. Modeling long term building energy demand for India.
2
Background
! High economic growth expected for India, more than 8-9% in the near future (Assumptions based on GoI documents)
! Population more than 1.2 Bn
! Rapid urbanization
! Managing energy demand and ensuring adequate and reliable energy supply important challenges for Indian policy
3
Modeling Building Energy Use:
Moving from Supply to Demand
5
Building energy consumption in India
• More than 45% of total final energy in India consumed in the building sector in 2005
• High reliance on traditional biomass
• Significant difference in rural and urban energy consumption profiles
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final energy consumption
Building
Transportation
Industry
India Buildings’ Energy Consumption (2005)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Urban Rural Commercial
Energy Con
sump.
on on 2005 (E
J)
Kerosene
Gas
Coal
Electricity
LPG
TradBiomass
Appliance
10.5%
Cooling 2.5%
HeaHng 0.1%
Cooking 77.2%
LighHng 9.6%
Appliance
1.8%
Cooling 0.1%
Heating 0.0%
Cooking 93.9%
Lighting 4.2%
Appliance
13.8%
Cooling 2.9% HeaHng 0.3%
Cooking 75.9%
LighHng 7.2%
Source: IEA (2007)
Energy Service Demands
Commercial Building
Floorspace
India Population
GDP
Urban population
GDP
Rural population
GDP
Urban Building
Floorspace
Rural Building
Floorspace
Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting
Appliance
Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting
Appliance
Heating Cooling Cooking Lighting
Equipment
AC Air Cooler
Heater Cooker
Incandescent Fluorescent Solidstate
Lamp Appliances Equipment
Coal Gas Oil
Electricity Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use Technologies
Urbanization Floorspace Expansion
Delivered Fuels
Socioeconomic Assumption
The Detailed Model for Building Energy Use in India
• Model framework based on Eom et al. (2011)
• Has been applied earlier to model China building energy demand
IDttDt IPkDemand εε= 1,
1, −
−= tSSt
ttSt PPkSupply εε
Floo
r spa
ce p
rice
[$ /
m2 ]
Floor space per capita [m2 per capita]
Demand increases with income
Parameters estimated based on National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data
The approach to Floor Space Expansion
Drivers of energy consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
m2/
capi
ta
Per capita floorspace
Rural
Urban
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
2005
Tho
usan
d U
SD
Per capita income
Rural
Urban
National Average
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mill
ions
Population
Rural
Urban
Increasing population in urban areas to drive floor space and energy service demands Per capita income gap assumed to converge by 2200
Demand for Building Services
Demand for Space Heating Service [GJ-output/m2] :
( )⎥⎥⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎣
⎡
⎟⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜⎜
⎝
⎛⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛⋅−−⋅−⋅⋅⋅=
tH
t
HtHtttHtH P
YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffHDDkQ,
,2lnexp1
αλ
Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-output/m2]
Demand for Other Services (water heating & cooking, lighting, other appliances):
⎥⎥⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎣
⎡⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛⋅−−⋅=
t
t
iit P
YkQα2lnexp1
( )⎥⎥⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎣
⎡
⎟⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜⎜
⎝
⎛⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛⋅−−⋅+⋅⋅⋅=
tC
t
CtCtttCtC P
YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffCDDkQ,
,2lnexp1
αλ
Space Heating Requirement (satiated demand) Economic Behavior
Modeling the Change in Service Demands
Space Cooling Requirement (satiated demand) Economic Behavior
12
Service Technology Fuel
Space Cooling Air condiHoner Electric Air cooler Electric
Space HeaHng Room heater Electric Building heater Electric
Cooking and Water HeaHng
Gas cooker Liquefied Petroleum Gas Gas cooker Natural Gas Electric cooker Electric Coal cooker Coal Biomass cooker Commercial biomass TradiHonal biomass cooker TradiHonal biomass Kerosene stove Kerosene
LighHng Incandescent bulbs Electric Fluorescent bulbs Electric Solid state lighHng Electric Oil Lamp Kerosene
Appliances Generic appliance technology Electric
End Use Technologies
The Long-Term Evolution of India’s Building Energy Use
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50
Resid
enHa
l Floorspace pe
r capita
[m2]
GDP per capita [thous. 2000 USD at PPP]
US 1990-‐2004
Denmark 1990-‐2004
Norway 1990-‐2004
Canada 1990-‐2004
NZ 1990-‐2004
UK 1990-‐2004
Japan 1990-‐2004
Netherlands 1990-‐2004
China urban 1985-‐2005
China rural 1985-‐2005
India urban projected (2005 and onwards) India rural projected (2005 and onwards)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 Co
mmercial Floorspace pe
r capita
[m2]
GDP per capita [thous. 2000 USD at PPP]
Canada 1990-‐2004
Denmark 1990-‐2004
Norway 1990-‐2004
NZ 1990-‐2004
UK 1990-‐2004
Japan 1990-‐2004
US 1990-‐2004
China 1985-‐2005
India projected (2005 and onwards)
Floor Space Expansion
Residential Commercial
Final energy consumption by service: Rural-Urban
Ø Rapid expansion of cooling and appliances: results include changing degree day effect
Ø Significant share of cooking also in the future
0
4
8
12
16
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Rural
Cooking Appliance Cooling LighHng HeaHng
0
4
8
12
16
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Urban
Cooking Appliance Cooling LighHng HeaHng
16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2005 2020 2050 2095
Avg
no. o
f uni
ts p
er H
H Urban-AC
Urban-Cooler
Rural-AC
Rural-Cooler
Space cooling technologies
q Low penetration of space cooling technologies in the base year
q High increase in AC ownership in the urban households between 2020 and 2050
q For rural households, this increase comes after 2050
17
0
4
8
12
16
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final energy by fuel-‐ Rural
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Final energy by fuel-‐ Urban
Kerosene
Gas
Coal
LPG
Electricity
Biomass
TradBiomass
Ø Dominance of electricity for cooling, heating, appliances, and lighting
Ø Gas, predominantly LPG, for cooking, takes a significant share
Ø Rapid phase out of traditional biomass
Final energy consumption by fuel: Rural-Urban
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Electricity (GJ/capita)
Rural
Urban
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
LPG (GJ/capita)
Rural
Urban
Electricity and LPG Ø Significant difference in urban and rural households’ consumption of electricity and LPG in 2005
Ø Rapid increase in per capita electricity consumption, moving towards developed country levels
Ø Decreasing gap: Especially LPG increase significant in rural areas
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final Energy by service
HeaHng
LighHng
Cooling
Appliance
Cooking
Aggregate final energy by service
o Commercial sector takes 48% share in buildings final energy consumption by century-end, similar to developed countries o Cooling, appliances, and lighting increase rapidly o Share of energy services similar to current profile of developed countries (Note: US heating and cooling have been adjusted by degree days for comparative purpose)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US- 2005
India- 2095
India- 2050
India-US Comparison
Impact of Climate Policy
• Low effect of carbon tax as limited substitution possibilities • Total final energy for India decreases by 15% in 2095, Almost 8% decrease in final energy in building sector under a climate policy • Alternative energy reduction policies important for Indian building sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final Energy-‐ Climate Policy
Kerosene
Gas
Coal
LPG
Electricity
Biomass
TradBiomass 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final Energy-‐ BAU
Kerosene
Gas
Coal
LPG
Electricity
Biomass
TradBiomass
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
Final Energy- Aggregate
BAU
Climate Policy
21
To Conclude
• Rapid increase in floor space, especially in urban areas
• Services: High growth in cooling and appliance services
• Fuels: Dominance of electricity and gas
• Phase out of traditional biomass
• Indian building energy evolves towards developed countries’ pattern
• Limited impact of an emission mitigation policy, alternative energy reduction policies hold importance
22
THANK YOU!