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Long-term evolution of the space debris population
Dr Hugh LewisAstronautics Research Group, Faculty of Engineering & the Environment
Space debris population (2)
Softball size or larger
( 10 cm)
~22,000 ~500,000 ~100,000,000
Total mass: ~6,500 tonnes(> 2,700 tonnes in LEO)
Marble size or larger
( 1 cm)
Ball-point pen tip( 1 mm)
View from the ISS
Simulated view from the ISS, with orbiting
objects from space-track
≥ 10 cm debris population
UN space debris mitigation guidelines1. Limit debris released during normal operations
2. Minimize the potential for break-ups during operational phases
3. Limit the probability of accidental collision in orbit
4. Avoid intentional destruction and other harmful activities
5. Minimize potential for post-mission break-ups resulting from stored energy
6. Limit the long-term presence of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region after the end of their mission
7. Limit the long-term interference of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages with the geosynchronous (GEO) region after the end of their mission
Remediation• Even with good compliance with the commonly
adopted mitigation guidelines, the space debris population is likely to grow:
– Active Debris Removal• About 50 removals needed to prevent one collision• $1 – $3 billion per year
LEO mitigation & remediation
90% compliance
90% compliance
with 5 removals per
year
Chance of the same
result
1-in-50 1-in-2001-in-5
12
Summary• Compliance with debris mitigation guidelines is
currently low
– Even if compliance rates improve the debris population is likely to continue to grow:
• Catastrophic collisions every five to ten years• Impact on spacecraft operations
• Remediation of the debris environment
– Can help to limit the growth of the debris population:• Activity needs to be sustained (expensive!)• Catastrophic collisions will still occur• Success is uncertain• Challenges:
– Compliance, Consensus, Cooperation, Collaboration, Contributions
Thank you for your attention
Contact: [email protected]
Thanks to Holger Krag (ESA Space Debris Office) for permission to use the MASTER reference population, and J.-C. Liou (NASA Orbital Debris Program Office) for permission to use the satellite catalogue data