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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India. P.R. Shukla. THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC). Objective: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India
P.R. Shukla
THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE (FCCC)
Objective:
...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5)
BENCHMARKS___________________________
CO2 Concentration 275 ppmv in 1850 358 ppmv in 1994
1990 Anthropogenic Emissions RateFossil Fuels=6.0 PgC/yr Land-Use Change (deforestation)=1.3 PgC/yr
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION EMISSIONS PATHS
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1990 2015 2040 2065 2090 2115 2140 2165 2190 2215 2240 2265 2290
PgC
/yr
350 Ceiling450 Ceiling550 Ceiling650 Ceiling750 Ceilingis92a
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Global Emissions and Concentration Paths for Annex
I Emissions MitigationEmissions Concentrations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
ppmv
Preindustrial CO2 Concentration 280 ppmv
2x Preindustrial CO2 Concentration 560 ppmv
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
PgC/yr
IS92aAnnex I, stabilizationHypothetical Protocol, global carbon emissions
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
LONG-TERM RESOURCE ISSUES of the UNFCCC
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Stranded Assets Physical Capital
Fossil Fuel Resources
Ratio of Financial Flows/Economic Cost Cost = $15-$30 billion
Tax Revenues = $150 billion
Non-Annex I Economic Development
REFERENCE CASE ASSUMPTIONS
___________________________
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
REGIONAL POPULATION
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
x103
SEASIA
LA
AFR
MIDEAST
china
EEFSU
AUS&NZ
JAPAN
WEUR
CANADA
USA
REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
GDP Per Capita GDP
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
$x10
9
SEASIALAAFRMIDEASTCHINAEEFSUAUS&NZJAPANWEURCANADAUSA
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
USACANADAWEURJAPANAUS&NZEEFSUCHINAMIDEASTAFRLASEASIA
NON-ANNEX I GRADUATION
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
CHINAMIDEAST
AFRLASEASIA
Avg. A1, 2050Avg. A1, 2020
CARBON STORAGE RESERVOIRS
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Range (PgC)Carbon Storage Reservoir Low High
Deep Ocean 1,391 27,000Deep Aquifers 87 2,727
Depleted Gas Reservoirs 136 300Depleted Oil Reservoirs 41 191
Stabilizing the Atmosphere: Some Conclusions
Free Venting of Carbon Must Eventually Be Phased Out,
But Not Necessarily Fossil Fuels.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
GHG StabilizationAnalysis for India
Global Energy Shares
ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr
USOECD WestAsian OECDEE/FSUMideastAfricaLatin AmericaIndiaRest of Asia
1990 5.8 PgC/yr
Global Energy Shares
ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr
USOECD WestAsian OECDEE/FSUMideastAfricaLatin AmericaIndiaRest of Asia
1990 5.8 PgC/yr
Energy Use in IndiaCommercial Energy Use in India, 1990
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
Exa
Joul
es p
er Y
ear
Biomass
Solar
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Liquid
Commercial Energy End-Use, 1990
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Exa
Jou
les
per
Yea
r
O thers
Industry
Transport
Utilities
Indian Energy Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Exa
jou
les
Oil Gas Coal Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear
Indian Energy Intensity Trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Pet
aJ
ou
les/
$ G
DP
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Future Indian Emissions?
Cumulative Emissions (1990 - 2095): Pg.CBF Reference :109 India 550 : 63
India CBF Business As Usual
1990 Technology
India 550
India CBF Ref
Filling the Indian GapAOG, Competitive Solution
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
AOG (Perfect Competition)
Oil
Gas
Filling the Indian GapAOG, Imperfect Institutions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
AOG (Perfect Competition)
Gap Filling -Oil & Gas
Imperfect Competition
Filling the Indian Gap?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission
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