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Longitudinal Analysis of the Career Path Outcomes of University Graduates
Bamby Fields, Eastern Washington UniversityFran Hermanson, Washington State UniversityNevena Lalic, University of WashingtonMelissa Beard, Education Research & Data Center (Moderator)
Presentation OutlineData GovernanceEastern Washington UniversityWashington State UniversityUniversity of WashingtonConcluding thoughts about using
employment data
Data GovernancePCHEES data linked with
employment dataData sharing agreement between
ERDC and the institution for de-identified data
EASTERN WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
Data Elements 5 cohorts of graduateso ’05-06, ’06-07, ‘07-08, ’08-09, ‘09-10
6 Employment yearsoYear0- the year of the awardoYear1 – year5, relating to 1 year past the
award year to 5 years past the award yearo2005-06 cohort had full 6 years of data
For each employment year: Main employer, number of employers,
NAICS code, wage, time status, student origin and more
Data Preparation Getting to know the data• Importing the data, assigning field names• Adding values for clear output & analysis
NAICS codes, age, race, wage range etc.
Recoding data◦Text to numeric◦Missing data◦Hunting for outliers and deciding what data
to explorePlan on devoting a hefty share of effort
on this
Research QuestionsWages over time, wages by CIPs,
NAICS codes, gender, race◦Statistically significant differences?
CIPS related to NAICS codesCareer tracks- NAICS changesFull time/part time employmentNumber of employers by CIP or NAICSHow does your data relate to state
and national data?And many more…
About EWU’s dataEWU is a regional comprehensive with > 50% First
Gen and a high percentage of Pell recipients- 63% of undergrads eligible for need-based financial aid
88% of EWU first-time freshman are from WA State and 40% are from Spokane County
Most popular degrees: ◦ Business Administration, Psychology, Biology, Dental
Hygiene and Communication Studies.Of the 8,786 graduates in the merged file, 87% are
from Washington State. 44% of the 2005-06 employment cohort had an
employer for each of the 6 years.◦ Not necessarily unemployed (graduate education,
military, self employment, non-profit, out-of-state employment etc.)
Decreases in NAICS sector %% of Employment in lower wage NAICS
sectors decreased over time- 2005-06 cohort data
Accommodation and Food Services◦ 15% in Year0 4% in Year5
Retail Trade◦ 19% in Year0 6% in Year5
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation◦ 4% in Year0 2% in Year5
Increases in NAICS Sector %% of employment in higher wage NAICS
sectors increased over time- 2005-06 cohort
Educational Services◦ 8% in Year0 20% in Year5
Finance and Insurance◦ 5% in Year0 9% in Year5
Public Administration◦ 7% in Year0 13% in Year5
Health Care and Social Services◦ 13% in year0 18% in year5
Degrees with a High Number of EmployersDental Hygiene
◦ 18, 12, 7, 6 and 5 employers
Education◦ 9, 6, and 5 employers
Other CIPs associated with 4 employers in the 6 years of data◦ Engineering Tech, Psychology,
Film/Cinema, Community Health Services, Business Admin, Marketing, Speech Communication, Spanish Language/Literature, Interdisciplinary
CIPs with highest percentages of wages $60,000 or more
Dental Hygiene- 15%Computer Science- 11%Interdisciplinary- 9%Accounting- 7%Finance- 6%Marketing- 6%Mechanical Engineering- 5%Criminology- 5%Business Administration- 3%Biology- 3%Engineering Tech- 3%
Full-time and Part-time Employment and Wage Increases Over TimeIn Year1 after graduation, % of PT and FT
was the same (30%) 40% not reportedThe percentage of PT decreased over
time◦ Year5- 15%
Mean wage rose steadily across the 6 years (2005-06 cohort)◦From the $10,000 - $19,000 wage band in
Year1◦To $40,000 - $49,000 wage band in year5
CIP wages that increased the most ($20,000 or more) in the 5 years after graduation)
City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning
Speech-Language PathologyPhysicsMechanical EngineeringCommunity Health ServicesGeologyChemistryKinesiology and Exercise ScienceComputer and Information ScienceBiologyFinanceTeaching (Business, Social Studies,
Mathematics, Spanish)
Scien
ce
Mat
h &
Tech
nolo
gy
CIP wages that increased the least (less than $10,000) in the 5 years after graduationFine ArtsAnthropologyHumanitiesHistoryArt HistoryEnglishOperations Management
Gender GapA higher % of females worked part-
time than males for each year in the file (4% - 10% difference)
The mean wage was significantly higher for males than for females in each of the 6 yeas of data (P=.00 for years 0–4 and P=.01 for year5)
When filtered for FT only, the mean wage was also significantly higher for males (P=.04 to P=.000)
Changes in NAICS Sectors- Degree Career Tracks Health Care- mostly health care, some
education and public administrationVisual and Performing Arts – only 4% in an
arts and 5% in educationSocial Sciences- public administration, health
care, administrative, professional/scientific/enterprises, finance and retail
Psychology- health care, educationPhysical Sciences-
professional/scientific/enterprises and health careParks, Recreation and Leisure- health care,
education, public administration
Changes in NAICS Sectors- Degree Career Tracks Foreign Languages- health care, educationEngineering- manufacturing,
professional/scientific/enterprisesTeaching- education, health care, public
administrationComputer Science-
professional/scientific/enterprises, manufacturingBiology- health care,
professional/scientific/enterprises, manufacturing, education, public administration
Communication, Journalism- retail, wholesale, information, finance, education, health care
Putting the Data into Context
Spokane County has the 15th highest unemployment of the 57 Washington Counties (Sept. 2012 preliminary)◦ Spokane County= 8.2%◦ Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MD = 7.0%
Average Annual Wage of Spokane County is Comparatively low◦ Spokane County = $39,931◦ Washington State = $50,257◦ King County = $63,268
The Value of Employment Studies Highlight Career Paths
◦ Specific 4 year college degrees lead to a variety of professions
◦ Some degrees have a wider path than others Communication Studies & History- miles wide Health Sciences- narrow path
Provide data to:◦ help build a case that a 4 year education is “worth it”
(increasing salary and varied employment opportunities)◦ tell the story of who we are and how we contribute to
our regional economy and services◦ Support enrollment management strategic planning,
curriculum planning, university/program accreditation, student advising and state/federal outcomes assessment
WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY
About WSU
Founded in 1890 in Pullman, it is Washington’s original land-grant university, with a mission of improving quality of life
In addition to the Pullman campus, WSU has campuses in Spokane, the Tri-Cities, and Vancouver, extension offices in every county, and a Global Campus with online degree programs accessible worldwide
WSU Growth and DemographicsSubstantial growth in the percentage of
Multicultural and First Gen students. Currently 61% of undergrads are eligible
for need-based financial aid87% of WSU first-time freshman are WA
residents, 74% Pullman freshmen are from West of the mountains while Tri-Cities and Vancouver freshmen are primarily (+90%) from their immediate region
Business Administration, Social Sciences, Health Sciences, Engineering, and Communication degrees are most popular
Degree RecipientsOf the 22,028 graduates in the
merged file, 89% are from Washington State
Baccalaureate degree production up 4%
Steady growth in STEM degrees (3%)Racial/Ethnic Minorities up 1% and
growth in STEM was 4%Women, down1% overall and growth
in STEM was 1%
Why the Focus on STEM
According to Change the Equation (CTEq) in Washington over the past three years, prospects for the unemployed have been grim
For unemployed people with STEM skills, however, the odds have been much better.
Overall, jobseekers outnumbered online job postings by 3.7 to one
In STEM, job postings outnumbered unemployed people by 2.1 to one
CTEq is a non-profit, non-partisan CEO-led initiative aimed at stepping up STEM – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – education in the United States).Source: changetheequation.org
Employed in WashingtonSTEM v. Non-STEM
After graduation, 70% of the graduates were employed in Washington
15% with STEM degreesFour years later the percentage
of graduates employed dropped to 50%
Four years later the percentage of those in STEM disciplines was 10%
Earnings Over TimeSTEM earning power increased over
time 87% STEM earned <20K year 1; 48% earned 50K+ in year 4 85% non-STEM earned < 20K year 1; 30% earned 50K+ in year 4
Earning power for Women increased but at much lower rates than Men 93% Women earned <20K year 1; 27% earned 50K+ in year 4 87% Men earned < 20K year 1; 58% earned 50K+ in year 4
Earning power for Minority similar to Non-minority by year 4 91% Minority earned <20K year 1; 47% earned 50K+ in year 4 88% Non-minority earned < 20K year 1; 46% earned 50K+ in year 4
Still More to Explore
Very rich set of data – tell more of the story
Deeper dive into the data to look at career path changes and how it affects earnings
Compare alumni survey results with results of wage data
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
Discussion Points Data limitations: whose wage
data is available?
Advantages of a longitudinal perspective
Ideas for analysis and specific applications
Data LimitationsGeneralizations about career
outcomes of particular degrees – even if only in-state – require representative samples
Need to explore correlations between characteristics of interest and likelihood of being included in the wage study
Which Students’ Data Do We Have?A preliminary study for UW data
revealed that the following is associated with a lower likelihood of inclusion:◦Graduating in 2008/09 or 2009/10◦Taking longer to graduate◦Earning degrees in many STEM fields
(e.g. bioengineering, chemistry, physics, mathematics, astronomy) as well as some humanities fields (classics, linguistics, Asian languages)
Which Students’ Data Do We Have?A preliminary study for UW data
revealed that the following is associated with a higher likelihood of inclusion:◦Pell eligibility◦More major changes before
graduation◦Graduating from nursing programs,
social work, construction management or the Tacoma business program
Which Students’ Data Do We Have?A preliminary study for UW data
revealed that the following is not strongly associated with likelihood of inclusion:◦Number of credits earned at UW◦Degree GPA◦Type of entry (as a freshman or
transfer student)◦Full-time status
Advantages of Longitudinal PerspectiveAllows for moving beyond volatile
first yearAverage wages may behave
differently over time depending on◦Degree earned◦Graduation year◦Industry
Example: Full-time average wages
Example: Percent employed full-time
Political science graduates per industry, over time
Biology graduates per industry, over time
Possibilities for future studyTesting effectiveness of programs
aimed to improve workforce placement
Impact of timing of market entryWithin a program, impact of:
◦multiple degrees,◦multiple majors,◦more credits, or◦higher GPA
Remaining limitationsNot capturing work locationInability to distinguish “jobs”
from careersInability to take into account
work experience gained out of state
Contact InformationBamby Fields (EWU)-
Fran Hermanson (WSU)[email protected]
Nevena Lalic (UW)[email protected]
Melissa Beard (ERDC)[email protected]
