Looking Back in Time Through Marine Looking Back in Time Through Marine Ecosystem Space: Top Predator Ecosystem Space: Top Predator

Perspectives on Climate and Change in the Perspectives on Climate and Change in the Western Antarctic PeninsulaWestern Antarctic Peninsula

William R. FraserWilliam R. FraserPolar Oceans Research Polar Oceans Research

GroupGroupSheridan, MontanaSheridan, Montana

LTER Operational Area and Climate LTER Operational Area and Climate Migration…Migration…

- From Anvers to Charcot Islands = 150,000 km- From Anvers to Charcot Islands = 150,000 km22

- Anvers Is. (Palmer Station and Remote Field Camps)- Anvers Is. (Palmer Station and Remote Field Camps)- Avian Is. (Remote Field Camp), Charcot Is. (Ship Access - Avian Is. (Remote Field Camp), Charcot Is. (Ship Access

Only)Only)

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.Avian Is.Avian Is. Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Antarctic Climate Antarctic Climate

Cold-DryCold-DrySub-Antarctic Climate Sub-Antarctic Climate

Warm-MoistWarm-Moist

Climate

Migra

tion

Climate

Migra

tion

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.

Avian Is.Avian Is.

Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Trends in regional sea ice conditions are driving Trends in regional sea ice conditions are driving major changes in the structure (and function?) of major changes in the structure (and function?) of the WAP marine ecosystem, such that a Sub-the WAP marine ecosystem, such that a Sub-Antarctic system is replacing an Antarctic system Antarctic system is replacing an Antarctic system on a north to south gradient. The Palmer LTER is on on a north to south gradient. The Palmer LTER is on the ground floor of these changes. the ground floor of these changes.

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.

Avian Is.Avian Is.

Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Primary ProductionPrimary Production

Montes-Hugo et al. 2009

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.

Avian Is.Avian Is.

Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Forage FishForage Fish

FUNCTIONALLFUNCTIONALLY EXTINCTY EXTINCT

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.

Avian Is.Avian Is.

Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Top PredatorsTop Predators

Schofield et al. 2013 SubmittedSchofield et al. 2013 Submitted

Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem change…change…

Life History Strategies of Top Predators and Their PreyLife History Strategies of Top Predators and Their Prey

Marine ecosystems select the life Marine ecosystems select the life histories of the species that histories of the species that populate them populate them Verity & Smetacek 1996Verity & Smetacek 1996

Ice-Ice-intolerantintolerant

Ice-Ice-dependentdependent

Weddell Weddell SealSeal

Emperor Emperor PenguinPenguin

AdAdéélie lie PenguinPenguin

Antarctic Antarctic SilverfishSilverfish

Southern Southern Elephant Elephant

SealSeal

Southern Southern Fur SealFur Seal

Chinstrap Chinstrap PenguinPenguin

Gentoo Gentoo PenguinPenguin

LanternfishLanternfishAntarctic Antarctic

KrillKrill

Ice-Ice-intolerantintolerant

Ice-Ice-dependentdependent

Population trends of ice-dependent versus ice-intolerant Population trends of ice-dependent versus ice-intolerant species, Anvers Island, 1974-2010.species, Anvers Island, 1974-2010.

FUNCTIONALLFUNCTIONALLY EXTINCTY EXTINCT

A 7-year “transition” between A 7-year “transition” between dominant life history types, 1988-dominant life history types, 1988-

1995.1995.

Schofield et al. 2013 SubmittedSchofield et al. 2013 Submitted

Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem change…change…

The Palmer Deep off The Palmer Deep off Anvers IslandAnvers Island

ANVERS ANVERS ISIS

E. Domack

Hypothesis testing…what are the biophysical dynamics Hypothesis testing…what are the biophysical dynamics and do they provide predictability over ecological time and do they provide predictability over ecological time scale (decades to centuries)? scale (decades to centuries)?

Anvers IsAnvers Is

E. Domack

Hypothesis testing…Adelie penguin foraging distributions Hypothesis testing…Adelie penguin foraging distributions are predictable in time and space over decadal scales….are predictable in time and space over decadal scales….

AVIAN IS

Krill Lifespan 6-7 Years

Ice Cycles 4-5 Years

Ice Cycles > 7 Years Ecosystem

Collapses?

Hypothesis testing…krill availability is cyclical and Hypothesis testing…krill availability is cyclical and predictable in time and space over decadal scales….predictable in time and space over decadal scales….

Anvers Is.Anvers Is.

Avian Is.Avian Is.

Charcot Is.Charcot Is.

Hypothesis testing…structured Hypothesis testing…structured ecosystem change…is another “fish ecosystem change…is another “fish event” in our future?event” in our future?

FUNCTIONALLFUNCTIONALLY EXTINCTY EXTINCT

Ice-Ice-dependentdependent

Ice-Ice-intolerantintolerant

Hypothesis testing…and what will be the result of this fish event if Hypothesis testing…and what will be the result of this fish event if it occurs? ....do canyons provide the laser-focus to understand it occurs? ....do canyons provide the laser-focus to understand these processes?these processes?

Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Hosts .Hosts .• ASCASC

Financial Support.Financial Support.• National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation • NOAA, NASA and Private DonorsNOAA, NASA and Private Donors

Associated Programs.Associated Programs.

• D.F. Parmelee, U. of MND.F. Parmelee, U. of MN• D.G. Ainley, PRBOD.G. Ainley, PRBO• Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research

ProgramProgram• Southern Ocean GLOBEC ProgramSouthern Ocean GLOBEC Program

Logistics.Logistics.• Holmes & NarverHolmes & Narver• ITT Antarctic ServicesITT Antarctic Services• Antarctic Support AssociatesAntarctic Support Associates• Raytheon Polar Services CompanyRaytheon Polar Services Company• RV Hero, Rieber Shipping and Edison RV Hero, Rieber Shipping and Edison

Chouest Chouest

Palmer Station Field Palmer Station Field TeamsTeams