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Looking Beyond the Shipyard
Economic Development Opportunities and Challenges in Southern Maine and the Seacoast of New Hampshire
Charles ColganUniversity of Southern Maine Ross GittellUniversity of New Hampshire
Overview
”We” came together to save the shipyard PNS is an asset, time to look forward and continue to work together
to shape the economic future of the region Geographic Triangle –Boston, Manchester, Portland… the
seacoast area is at the center of the triangle.. This presents Opportunity It also includes significant Risks
Development Triangle Tourism Center, Technology “Mini-Hub”, Suburb\Retirement Area Movement too much to any of these is not desired Balance among the three can be beneficial
Goal: Balanced and Beneficial Development
What brings us here… Understanding our Situation and Goals
Opportunities Strong economic foundation to work from a leading economic engine/region for 2 states and Northern New
England
Tensions Growth and sprawl Preserving natural resources and environment Maintaining the quality and character of our community
Opportunities defined by the two triangles
1. Geography York, Rockingham and Strafford lie at the junction of
three expanding urban regions 2. Economic Specialization
The region’s future will be defined by the balance between three different economic roles
Economic Role of the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
York County Rockingham County
Direct Indirect County Indirect Rest of State
10%
1%
6%
0%2%
4%6%
8%10%
12%
Percentage ofYork County
Percentage ofRockingham
County
Percentage ofRegion
8978
1602
Demographic and Economic Dynamics
Similarities & Differences York and Rockingham, Strafford, Maine and NH, and US
Highlighting In-migration (from other states) Declining young adult population “Aging” Baby Boomer Concentration Employment and Population Growth Housing Prices and Income
Demographic-Economic Dynamic: All 3 counties have in-migration higher than US average (32%). About 2/3rds of residents in Rockingham were born in another state, just under 50% in York and Stafford.
Rank County % Of Population Born out of State
1 Rockingham 67.82 Carroll 59.23 Cheshire 52.84 Grafton 505 Hillsborough 47.96 Strafford 45.37 Sullivan 43.98 York,ME 43.89 Belknap 43.610 Merrimack 41.711 Coos 28.912 Middlesex,MA 21.313 Essex, MA 15.6
With in-migration …higher skilled and higher income population. Rockingham stands out. US averages define the coordinates.
Androscoggin
Belknap Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Cumberland
Essex
Franklin
Grafton
Hillsborough
Kennebec Knox
LincolnMaine
Massassachusetts
Merrimack
Middlesex
New Hampshire
Oxford
Rockingham
SagadahocStrafford
US 31.18%, 29,845
York
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
% Pop Born Out of State 2000
PC
I 2
00
0
High Concentration of baby boomers in NH and Maine and in Rockingham and York. Relatively low percent of under 18 population in Strafford and York and Maine.
AndroscogginBelknap
Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Cumberland
Essex
Grafton
Hillsborough
Kennebec
KnoxLincoln
MaineMassassachusetts
Merrimack
Middlesex
New Hampshire
Oxford
Rockingham
Sagadahoc
Strafford Sullivan
US 31.18%, 29,845
York
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
% Pop 45 to 64 2000
% P
op
Un
de
r 1
8 2
00
0
Baby Boomers are aging, unlike 1990 the region (except for Strafford) no longer has higher percentage of 25-34 year olds than the US average.
Maine YorkSagadahoc
Oxford
Lincoln
KnoxKennebec
Cumberland
Aroostook
Androscoggin
New Hampshire
Sullivan
Strafford
Rockingham
Merrimack
HillsboroughGrafton
Coos
Cheshire
Carroll
Belknap
US 17.4%, 13.7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%
Percentage of Population Age 25-34 1990
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Po
pu
lati
on
Ag
e 2
5-3
4 2
00
4
Declining young adult (25 to 34 year old) entry level work cohort, 1990 to 2004.
Compared to 1990 to 2004, US average of 7% decline in young adults Rockingham County declined 38% York, 23.% Strafford, 13% This is a New England concern… there are 4 states in
the region (including NH and Maine) among the 5 states with the greatest percentage decline in young adult population…
Now Rockingham and York have high concentration of 45-64 year olds.. This was not true in 1990.
US 18.6%, 24.1%
Belknap
Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Grafton
Hillsborough
Merrimack
Rockingham
Strafford
Sullivan
New Hampshire
Androscoggin
Aroostook
Cumberland
Kennebec
Knox
Lincoln
Oxford
SagadahocYork Maine
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22%
Percentage of Population Age 45-64 1990
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Po
pu
lati
on
Ag
e 4
5-6
4 2
00
4
Older population concentration in Maine.. Above average percentages of 65+ and below average young cohort in York. Rockingham concentration of boomers. Strafford college aged concentration.
Androscoggin
Belknap
Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Cumberland
Essex
Franklin
Grafton
Hillsborough
Kennebec
KnoxLincoln
Maine
Massassachusetts
Merrimack
Middlesex
New Hampshire
Oxford
Rockingham
Sagadahoc
Strafford Sullivan
US 31.18%, 29,845
York
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19%
% Pop 65 or Over 2000
% P
op
Un
de
r 1
8 2
00
0
Household Income Rockingham ranks highest in household income .similar to northeastern Mass.. Strafford and York have lower percentage of high income households.
Rank County Median HH Income
Rank County %HH 100K+
1 Middlesex,MA $60,821 1 Middlesex,MA 24.92 Rockingham $58,150 2 Essex, MA 19.03 Hillsborough $53,384 3 Rockingham 18.94 Essex, MA $51,576 4 Hillsborough 16.65 Merrimack $48,522 5 Merrimack 12.16 Strafford $44,803 6 Grafton 10.17 York,ME $43,630 7 Carroll 9.48 Belknap $43,605 8 Strafford 9.49 Cheshire $42,382 9 Belknap 9.310 Grafton $41,962 10 York,ME 8.811 Sullivan $40,938 11 Cheshire 8.712 Carroll $39,990 12 Sullivan 7.313 Coos $33,593 13 Coos 4.1
Over last 2 decades Rockingham an employment growth center. York more of a population growth center…Strafford neither.
Sullivan
Strafford
Rockingham
Merrimack
Hillsborough
Grafton
Coos
Cheshire
Carroll
Belknap
New Hampshire
Middlesex
Essex
Massachusetts
York
Sagadahoc
Oxford
Lincoln
Knox
Kennebec
Franklin
Cumberland
Androscoggin
Maine
US 16.49%, 19.94%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Population Change 1990-03
Em
plo
ym
en
t C
ha
ng
e 1
99
0-0
3
Housing prices in the area relative to 3-state region and compared to US average are not “out of line” with income ..but affordability is issue for local workers
Androscoggin
Belknap
Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Cumberland
Essex
Franklin
Grafton
Hillsborough
Kennebec Knox
Lincoln
Maine
MassassachusettsMerrimack
Middlesex
New Hampshire
Oxford
Rockingham
Strafford
Sullivan
US 31.18%, 29,845
York
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Median Owner Occ Housing Value 2000
Me
dia
n H
H In
co
me
20
00
More recently York emerging as employment growth area and Strafford as a population growth center.
Sullivan
Strafford
Rockingham
Merrimack
Hillsborough
Grafton
Coos Cheshire
Carroll
Belknap
New Hampshire
Middlesex
Essex
Massachusetts
York
SagadahocOxford
Lincoln
Knox
Kennebec
Franklin
CumberlandAndroscoggin
Maine
US 1.99%, 0.10%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Population Change 2001-03
Em
plo
ym
en
t C
ha
ng
e 2
00
1-0
3
Rockingham has balance of leisure & hospitality and high tech employment. York has concentration in leisure and hospitality, not tech. Strafford does not have high concentration of either.
York
US 31.18%, 29,845
Sullivan
Strafford
Sagadahoc
Rockingham
Oxford
New Hampshire
Middlesex
Merrimack
Massassachusetts
Maine
LincolnKnox
Kennebec
Hillsborough
Grafton
Franklin
Essex
Cumberland
Coos
Cheshire Carroll
Belknap
Androscoggin0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Leisure & Hosp Emp Concentration 2003
Hig
h T
ec
h E
mp
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n 2
00
3
Rockingham high per capita income related to high technology concentration and high percent of population with college degree.. Neither York or Strafford above US average in high tech or income per capita.
York
US 31.18%, 29,845
Sullivan
Strafford Sagadahoc
Rockingham
Oxford
New Hampshire
Middlesex
Merrimack
Massassachusetts
Maine
Lincoln
Knox
Kennebec
Hillsborough
Grafton
Franklin
Essex
Cumberland
Coos
Cheshire
Carroll
Belknap
Androscoggin
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
High Tech Emp Concentration 2003
PC
I 2
00
3
Commonalities among Top 25 Industries in Each County
Leading industries defined as high specialization and high growth
Rank Strafford County Rockingham County York County1 Lumber and const. supply merchant wholesalers Employment Services Offices of physicians2 Special food services Computer Systems Design and Related Services Residential building construction3 Architectural and engineering services Management of Companies & Enterprises Architectural and engineering services4 Other personal services Limited Service Eating Establishments Ship and boat building5 Grocery and Related Product Wholesalers Commercial & Service industry machinery manufacturing Automobile dealers6 Advertising and related services Software Publishing Other specialty trade contractors7 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Depository credit intermediation8 Building equipment contractors Petroleum and petroleum products wholesale Computer systems design and related services9 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Other financial investment activities Management and technical consulting services10 Other motor vehicle dealers Grocery stores Building equipment contractors11 Private households Concrete contractors Household and institutional furniture mfg.12 National Security Nursing care facilities Legal services13 Accounting and bookkeeping services Services to buildings & dwellings Direct selling establishments14 Building foundation and exterior contractors Semiconductor & other electronic component manufacturing Electronic markets and agents and brokers15 Utility system construction Department stores Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing16 Offices of physicians Lumber & other construction materials wholesale Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers17 Residential building construction Automobile Dealers Elementary and secondary schools18 Remediation and other waste services Elementary & secondary schools Building finishing contractors19 Individual and family services Building and materials supplies dealers Architectural and structural metals mfg.20 Direct selling establishments Scientific R&D services Offices of real estate agents and brokers21 Management and technical consulting services Offices of physicians Offices of dentists22 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores Special trade contractors Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related23 Other specialty trade contractors Architectural, Engineering &related services Commercial equip. merchant wholesalers24 Professional and similar organizations Other support services Electronics and appliance stores25 Activities related to real estate Direct selling establishments Machine shops and threaded product mfg.
Strafford- York in Common Common to All Counties Rockingham-York in Common
Key Export Industries Unique to Each County
Rank Strafford County Rockingham County York County1 Lumber and const. supply merchant wholesalers Employment Services Offices of physicians2 Special food services Computer Systems Design and Related Services Residential building construction3 Architectural and engineering services Management of Companies & Enterprises Architectural and engineering services4 Other personal services Limited Service Eating Establishments Ship and boat building5 Grocery and Related Product Wholesalers Commercial & Service industry machinery manufacturing Automobile dealers6 Advertising and related services Software Publishing Other specialty trade contractors7 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Depository credit intermediation8 Building equipment contractors Petroleum and petroleum products wholesale Computer systems design and related services9 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Other financial investment activities Management and technical consulting services10 Other motor vehicle dealers Grocery stores Building equipment contractors11 Private households Concrete contractors Household and institutional furniture mfg.12 National Security Nursing care facilities Legal services13 Accounting and bookkeeping services Services to buildings & dwellings Direct selling establishments14 Building foundation and exterior contractors Semiconductor & other electronic component manufacturing Electronic markets and agents and brokers15 Utility system construction Department stores Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing16 Offices of physicians Lumber & other construction materials wholesale Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers17 Residential building construction Automobile Dealers Elementary and secondary schools18 Remediation and other waste services Elementary & secondary schools Building finishing contractors19 Individual and family services Building and materials supplies dealers Architectural and structural metals mfg.20 Direct selling establishments Scientific R&D services Offices of real estate agents and brokers21 Management and technical consulting services Offices of physicians Offices of dentists22 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores Special trade contractors Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related23 Other specialty trade contractors Architectural, Engineering &related services Commercial equip. merchant wholesalers24 Professional and similar organizations Other support services Electronics and appliance stores25 Activities related to real estate Direct selling establishments Machine shops and threaded product mfg.
Vulnerabilities
Demographics High costs .. Relative to growing areas in US (e.g.,
North Carolina, Georgia) Turning into a “Boston suburb” or retirement
community Differences and frictions across the river
OpportunitiesIndustries and industry issues to focus on
Export Industries …essential for a strong economic future Manufacturing, small and medium-sized firms, niche supplier firms,
and innovation & new product focus High Technology, computer component parts, software development,
information and computer system design Tourism, leisure and hospitality and eating establishments
Employment Services Services a broad range of industries Both high and low skilled and waged jobs
Health Care as an Industry Significant employer Service industry …part of quality of life As export industry … selective areas of opportunity?
Opportunities (continued) Industries and industry issues to focus on
Professional Services and Corporate Offices Engineering and architectural services
Finance and Insurance Construction and real estate ..have been strong but
vulnerability Creative Industries ..art, culture, music … add to the
quality of life and help attract skilled workers and entrepreneurs to the area
Development issues that need to be
considered
Demographics Paucity of younger skilled workers Aging population and workforce Migration … in and out-migration of domestic,
foreign immigration Education and training for the “right” jobs and
industries K-16+ quality and coordination in the region Need for science, engineering, IT and math focus
Promoting Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Development issues that need to be
considered
Quality of Life as an economic development asset recreational amenities, health care system, low
crime, historical resource, social capital, socio-economic diversity
Infrastructure Housing… affordability, availability for workforce,
diversity Transportation – regional multi-modal hub, local
roads to relieve bottlenecks on bridges and elsewhere, public transport
Energy ..costs and alternative fuels/sources Water supply
Implementation issues..
Collaboration Acting on common interest Recognizing differences Reducing conflicts Working together on specific initiatives of
mutual benefit Marketing/Branding of the Area
Business recruitment and retention Tourism development
Beyond PNH Initiatives… some ideas
Education & Training: Sharing & Adding Capacity/Resources
Community college cooperative agreements and arrangements
Math, Science & Technology Institute (center of excellence) for primary and secondary students
Graduate Education tied to the regional economy –UNH-USM (in business, marine and atmospheric sciences, computer science and engineering programs)
Beyond PNH Initiatives… some ideas
Transport nodes and roads
Strafford-Rockingham-York “mini-128” loop Multi-Modal Hub/Center for commuting
Local public transport network (for younger workers, low income and elderly and to reduce pollution)
Train service to Boston and other locations Regular bus service to Manchester Airport Ferry Services, tourism and commuters
Beyond PNH Initiatives…some more ideas
Housing.. Multi-unit and rental in larger cities and
towns Conversion of seasonal housing to year-
round Business Incubator
For technology start-ups For entrepreneurial ventures For female and immigrant owned
businesses
Community College Resources in the York/Rockingham Region
Pease Campus of NHCTC Stratham Campus of NHCTC York County Community College
Biotechnology Accounting Accounting
Automotive Technology Business Administration
Computer Aided Drafting Early Childhood Education Computer Aided Drafting and Design
Computer Technology General Studies Computer Technology
Information Systems Technology Liberal Arts Culinary Arts
Management Digital Media
Marketing Early Childhood Education
Nursing Hotel/Restaurant Management
Surgical Technology Liberal Studies
Verterinary Technology Para Education
Trade and Technical Occupations
Multi-unit housing opportunity
37.5%
33.8%
25.9%
13.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Northeast Rockingham County Region York County
% M
ult
i-F
am
ily